Bumper year for Cerillion

0

Telecoms enterprise software provider Cerillion (LON:CER) grew strongly last year, while the rate of growth might slow this year it is still likely to make good progress given the recent €12.4m contract win. Further contract wins would add to the growth rate.

In the year to September 2023, AIM-quoted Cerillion’s revenues were one-fifth higher at £39.2m, while underlying pre-tax profit was two-fifths ahead at £16.8m, helped by a reduction in impairment charges from £1.77m to £256,000. The growth has come from software with a dip in services revenues.

Net cash reached £24.7m at the end of September 2023. The dividend has been raised from 9.1p/share to 11.3p/share.

The order book is worth £52.5m and that includes £37m of contracted sales and £9m of support and maintenance level. This underpins more than two-thirds of this year’s forecast revenues. There is a strong sales pipeline.

The 5G investment is continuing but the momentum has not picked up. Demand for Cerillion’s software also comes from companies improving the use and efficiency of their existing assets.

Liberum forecasts a 2023-24 pre-tax profit of £18.2m with net cash of £30m at the end of September 2024. Singer is more conservative with a £17.3m pre-tax profit estimate. A higher tax rate reduces the growth rate of earnings in comparison with profit.

The share price slipped 25p to 1280p, which is 28 times the more conservative estimate. A further large contract win is likely to be the thing that propels the share price upwards.

Income tax cuts could be among early Christmas present for UK taxpayers

Jeremy Hunt could provide UK taxpayers with welcome tax cuts this week, and speculation around which taxes he decides to cut in Wednesday’s Autumn Statement is reaching fever pitch.

Inheritance tax had been earmarked by commentators for a cut, but attention has quickly shifted to income tax as it has a broader impact on UK householders and is likely to win more votes.

However, cutting income tax comes with the risk of stoking inflation.

“Talk is now of a cut in income tax rather than inheritance tax, alongside an extension of the current generous business investment allowance. Any give-away, however, is likely to be limited with last-year’s mini-budget fiasco still fresh in the memory,” said Rupert Thompson, Chief Economist, Kingswood.

“The resulting near-term economic boost should be minimal, but the Chancellor will be hoping the political gains will be rather larger.”

Although tax cuts could be announced this week, they will not come into force until the end of the tax year, or even beyond that.

The Chancellor will want to be seen helping households with a lower tax burden but will also be conscious there are another two budgets before the next general election. He will want to keep his powder dry and save any major vote winners for Rishi Sunak’s election campaign next year.

By starting to cut taxes now, Sunak can claim he has overseen a series of tax cuts in the run-up to the election, playing on traditional conservative values in a push to win back disillusioned voters.

“It’s the news that every taxpayer wants to hear ahead of this week’s Autumn Statement – the Prime Minister has declared that the time is now here for tax cuts. With the target of halving inflation safely in the bag, Rishi Sunak has swiftly moved into the crowd-pleasing agenda of deciding what handouts he and Jeremy Hunt can serve up on Wednesday,” said Laura Suter, head of personal finance at AJ Bell.

“Estimates of how much spare money the Government has to play with vary wildly, and we won’t know the true figure until the OBR releases its report this week, but we do know that Mr Hunt doesn’t have huge sums to play with. That means he’ll probably be looking for a goldilocks tax cut that boosts productivity, is popular enough that it appeases backbench MPs, doesn’t come with a huge price tag, and won’t risk fuelling inflation – it could be like finding a needle in a haystack for Treasury policymakers.”

“The list of taxes rumoured to be on the chopping block is long and gets longer by the minute in the run up to the fiscal update. But clearly income tax will be the most popular tax cut with any worker: it affects the majority of workers, is easy to understand and has a direct impact on the money you take home each month.”

FTSE 100 slips as corporate updates disappoint, Ashtead sinks

The FTSE 100 slipped on Monday as markets continued to consolidate after an almost euphoric rally inspired by interest rate hopes.

The downside in London’s leading index was driven by poor corporate updates from constituents, including Ashtead and Compass Group.

Ashtead warned profits would be lower than market expectations due to lower emergency response business after a quiet hurricane season and the ongoing reduction in the TV and film business amid the writers’ strike.

“It’s rare to see construction rental group Ashtead issue a profit warning so when one does come along, it’s natural for the share price to take a beating. That’s exactly what has happened today and why it has caused a considerable drag on the FTSE 100,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Also weighing on the UK blue chip stock index was catering group Compass as its full year revenue and earnings per share were marginally below market expectations.”

The FTSE 100 was down 0.2% shortly before 3pm in London.

Mould looked forward to the rest of the week and events with the potential to cause fluctuations in the financial markets.

“Tomorrow’s session includes the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve regarding its decision to keep interest rates unchanged. That has the potential to move markets, so do results on the same day from chip specialist Nvidia which has been this year’s stock market darling. It’s been a major driver of US equity market performance in 2023 so the slightest bit of bad news from the company could send shockwaves across the market.”

NVIDIA opened up slightly higher as US trade got underway on Monday. The ‘Magnificent 7’ US technology shares have been responsible for a large proportion of global equity indices returns, and an upset could have broad-reaching implications for sentiment.

The S&P 500 was trading 0.17% higher at the time of writing.

Diploma

Speciality goods and support services company Diploma isn’t the raciest of FTSE 100 companies but it stole the show on Monday with a 10% gain after releasing a trading update.

Diploma produced organic revenue growth of 8% amid a 19% jump in total revenue as the company integrated new acquisitions into their business.

“We’ve had an excellent year with strong, volume-led organic growth; great margin progression; and continued double-digit EPS growth, all at strong returns,” said Johnny Thomson, Diploma’s Chief Executive.

“We continue to diversify end-market exposures, penetrate core geographies; and expand addressable markets through product extension to drive organic growth. We welcomed 12 quality new businesses to the Group. And, we carefully develop our businesses for scale.”

AIM movers: Oriole Resources secures funding for gold projects in Ghana and Velocys approach

0

Gold explorer Oriole Resources (LON: ORR) has announced heads of terms with contractor BCM International for the development of the Bibemi and Mbe gold projects in Ghana. BCM can earn up to 50% of the Bibemi project by making a cash payment of $500,000 and commit to spend $4m on the project. BCM will pay $1m in cash and spend a further $4m to earn a 50% stake in Mbe project. The share price jumped 82.9% to 0.1875p.

RUA Life Sciences (LON: RUA) says the change in strategy has reduced the cash burn while also enabling operations to make progress. There has been a contract manufacturing bid request that could be worth £1.5m/year and is further potential work worth £500,000/year. This business could double in scale over the medium-term. Development and testing of the structural heart valve leaflets is exceeding expectations. The plan is to make the company’s composite available to other companies to use in their heart valves. A large heart valve company is expected to start testing the composite. The vascular product is ready for regulatory testing in the US. As this will take up to three years and cost £6m a partner is being sought. The share price is 42.9% ahead of 22.5p.

musicMagpie (LON: MMAG) is in bid talks with BT Group (LON: BT.A) and asset manager Aurelius. The talks are at an early stage. The share price recovered 25.3% to 23.5p. The April 2021 flotation price was 193p.

Battery technology developer Ilika (LON: IKA) has achieved its D4 development point for the Goliath battery. This is the start of the productisation of the battery. Ilika will be able to create P1 samples for testing by customers. The share price improved 22% to 36p.

FALLERS

Velocys (LON: VLS) is the worst performer on the day after the sustainable fuels company said that there is a potential bid at 0.25p/share from a consortium including Lightrock and Carbon Direct Capital Management. This would ensure long-term funding of the business. The low share price makes it difficult to finance the sustainable fuels operations. The share price slumped 60.5% to 0.2725p, which values Velocys at £4.5m. A large multiple of that value needs to raised to fund development and production. Interim funding will be required.

Helium One Global (LON: HE1) says that drilling at the Tai-3 well confirms the presence of helium. Onsite pressure volume temperature analysis of fluid samples yielded helium concentrations of 8,320 parts per million. The drilling rig will be moved to Itumbula, where the iron rough neck and hydraulics will be repaired. The news disappointed the market and the share price dived 46% to 3.025p.

Active Energy Group (LON: AEG) says construction of Coalswitch fuel reference plant at Ashland, Maine is still being delayed. It will not be up and running until the first quarter of 2024. The facility is 12 months late and management has lost confidence in contractor Player Design Inc. The share price dipped 43.6% to 2.325p.

Eqtec (LON: EQT) is refinancing its debt and making annualised cost savings of £1.5m. The waste-to-energy business will issue £1.125m of shares to satisfy £900,000 owed to Altair. The Riverfort facility, which has a balance of £4.5m is being replaced by a £10m facility. There are plans to reduce the nominal value of the shares. The Gardanne project will generate €186,000 of pre-feed work in the near future and follow on studies will generate a further of €900,000. The share price fell 19.1% to 0.0425p.

ECR Minerals upbeat on Lolworth project after sampling results

ECR Minerals has announced significant early-stage results suggesting an extension of the gold footprint at its Lolworth Project in North Queensland, Australia.

Pan concentrate sampling south of Reedy Creek into Butterfly Creek indicates a likely gold source extending further south. Visible gold continues to be seen.

Peak soil sampling results at Gorge Creek West correlate along strike to a mapped quartz vein. Further investigations are planned.

Results from Flaggy Creek and Reedy Creek West soil sampling are due soon. Operations have been paused to evaluate the work plan.

Follow-up investigations into targeting other niobium and rare earth element stream anomalies are also in progress.

The Lolworth Project consists of three exploration permits operated by ECR’s wholly-owned subsidiary LUX Exploration. Numerous gold, niobium and REE anomalies have been identified.

“I am pleased to report good grades from pan concentrate sampling, which indicate that additional sources of gold could exist within the headwaters of Butterfly Creek and extend the region’s prospectivity some 2km further south of Reedy Creek,” said ECR Technical Director Adam Jones commented.

“Local landholders have reported to us that good sizeable gold discoveries were made in this watershed by early prospectors and the evidence of our work to date supports these theories. In addition to this, the field team are steadily building a picture of extended gold mineralisation in the headwaters of Gorge Creek West resulting from on-going results from soil sampling and outcrop mapping.”

Helium One shares crash as drilling suspended at Tai-3

Helium One shares sank on Monday as the company announced further downbeat developments in their Tanzanian drill campaign.

The helium explorer has faced ongoing challenges this year with issues securing the appropriate equipment for their planned drill campaign. Today, the company announced an unfavourable outcome in the evaluation of the Tai-3 well.

Although Helium One successfully recovered downhole fluid samples confirming the presence of helium at its Tai-3 well, the company was unable to obtain basement samples as tools could not run past 1,430 meters due to washouts. The well has now been suspended for future deeper drilling into the basement target.

Investors will be encouraged by the presence of helium at the prospect, but challenges during the drill campaign ultimately left shareholders disappointed.

Helium One shares were down around 30% at the time of writing.

Samples yielded helium concentrations up to 8,320 parts per million (ppm), significantly above normal background levels of around 5ppm.

Wireline logs and petrophysical analysis demonstrated good quality reservoir sands in the Upper and Lower Karoo Group, interbedded with shales. No zones of interest were found in the Lake Beds or Nsungwe Formation.

A new location on the Itumbula prospect has been identified for the next well.

Helium One has been dogged by issues with rigs and drilling equipment this year, and today’s update revealed additional repairs are required before the drilling campaign can continue. Upon completing repairs, Helium One plans to continue its drilling campaign at the Itumbula prospect.

Ondo Insurtech shares fall as revenue growth disappoints

Ondo Insurtech shares fell in early trade on Monday as the insurance technology company failed to inspire investors with tepid revenue growth in their recent half-year period.

The UK-based provider of property claim prevention technology, announced revenue of £1.2 million for the six-month period ended 30th September 2023, a 24% increase compared to £0.9 million in the same period last year. Recurring revenue from software and services grew 50% to £0.7 million.

Ondo shares were down 13% to 26p at the time of writing on Monday.

The company reported an operating loss of £1.6 million and an adjusted loss before tax of £1.9 million.

Ondo shipped 18,927 LeakBot units during the period, a 61% increase versus 11,752 units last year. Total registered customers grew 77% to 84,000.

The company signed new US deals with Mutual of Enumclaw and Pure Insurance to roll out in Washington and New York states. It also agreed to a 5-year rollout with Sweden’s largest home insurer Länsförsäkringar.

After the reporting period, Ondo signed with Nationwide, a top 10 US home insurer, to make LeakBot part of their Smart Home program. Addressable households under contract increased 394% to 2.5 million, and rises further to 5 million with the Nationwide deal.

The increase in addressable households was largely priced in last week after the announcement of the Nationwide deal, and today’s numbers serve as a reminder the company is trading at relatively punchy sales and earnings multiples.

Aquis weekly movers: Marula Mining progresses Blesberg lithium project

Marula Mining (LON: MARU) has completed the phase 1 drilling programme at the Blesberg lithium and tantalum mine. The 21 holes were finished ahead of schedule and assay results are awaited. Phase 2 drilling has started and 15 out of 21 holes have been completed. Financial forecasts for the planned open pit hard rock mining plan. The share price jumped 24.4% to 12.125p.

Vinanz Ltd (LON: BTC) has already spent some of the money raised at the beginning of November to acquire 171 bitcoin miners in North America. The plan is to buy a total of 250 bitcoin miners. Vinanz currently holds 9.1 bitcoin. The share price rose a further 14.8% to 7.75p.

Cadence Minerals (LON: KDNC) says its subsidiary has issued a request for consultations and negotiations to the Mexican government concerning the possible revocation of the mining concessions for the Sonora lithium project. These concessions are held by joint venture companies, where Cadence Minerals has 30% stakes. The share price improved 7.2% to 6.7p.

FALLERS

Quantum Exponential (LON: QBIT) has converted its £450,000 investment in Universal Quantum in exchange for 84 million shares at 5319.47p each. A one-for-1,000 share split will happen after the share issue. This means that the subsequent 84,000 shares will be 0.51% of buildable quantum computers developer Universal Quantum. The share price is 18.7% lower at 1.625p.

Wishbone Gold (LON: WSBN) says initial mineralised results from the first half of the Cottesloe project in Western Australia. The company expects full results during next January. The share price dipped 11.9% to 1.85p.

Director deals: Is Made Tech worth buying yet?

At a time when many of the new AIM admissions over the past three years have performed poorly, one of the worst is Made Tech Group (LON: MTEC), which joined AIM in September 2021 when it raised £15m at 112p a share. The share price has slumped to 10.75p.
Chief operating officer Chris Blackburn acquired 310,000 shares at 10.4p each. That takes his stake to 14.5%. Back in July, chief executive Rory MacDonald acquired 897,507 shares at 17.14p each.
Chris Blackburn and Rory MacDonald are deemed to be a concert party and are not allowed to take their combined stake above 43.04%. The level is curren...

AIM weekly movers: Mars bids for Hotel Chocolat

0

Hotel Chocolat (LON: HOTC) is recommending a 375p/share bid from Mars, which values the chocolate company at £534m. The share price soared 170% to 366p and it has not been this high for 18 months. Mars is keen to help Hotel Chocolat expand into new regions. The track record of the current management when it comes to international expansion has been mixed and it will help to have a larger company with greater resources backing the expansion. Shareholders can accept an alternative offer of one rollover share in the bid vehicle for each share. The value of these shares will be dependent on the performance of the business, and this would be taking a risk.

Verici Dx (LON: VRCI) has entered into an exclusive licence agreement with Thermo Fisher for its pre-transplant prognostics. This will generate staged payments of $5m over the next 12 months, plus future royalties of per test. That means that Verici Dx will have enough cash until the end of 2024. Thermo Fisher has the commercial expertise to roll out the technology and it will further develop the product. The share price increased 56.5% to 9p.

AMTE Power (LON: AMTE) has secured a short-term financing and the share price has recovered 54.1% to 1.04p. The battery technology developer will receive £2.5m from a subscription by Pinnacle International Venture Capital at 1.7p/share and it is also providing a £200,000 convertible loan facility. A placing will raise a further £400,000 at 0.5p/share. A general meeting is required to approve the subscription.

City Pub Group (LON: CPC) is also the subject of an agreed bid. Young & Co’s Brewery (LON: YNGA) is offering 108.75p in cash and 0.032658 of an A share for each City Pub Group share, valuing it at 145p/share or £162m. The share price jumped 52.5% to 136.5p. Young’s has been seeking to grow its managed pubs business and believes it is rare to have the opportunity to acquire such an attractive portfolio of pubs. The deal will increase the number of pubs owned by 50 to 279. A significant amount of City Pub Group’s central overheads of £5.6m could be saved by the combined group and there could be other savings. Young’s shares rose 1.86% to 1095p.

FALLERS

Nickel project developer Horizonte Minerals (LON: HZM) is reducing construction activities at the Araguaia nickel project while it continues financing discussions. The project has enough working capital until mid-December, although this could be extended into the first quarter of next year. This is when the due diligence of the finance providers should be completed. The share price slumped 54.1% to 8.6p, which is just above the low on the week.

Antimicrobial technology developer Byotrol (LON: BYOT) expects modest full year growth in full year revenues, which means that the loss will be slightly higher than previously anticipated. Half year sales were £2m. IP deals are still difficult to forecast. There should be £300,000 in cash at the end of March 2024, down from £500,000 at the end of September. The share price fell 38.9% to 0.55p to a new low.

Trading recommenced in Rockfire Resources (LON: ROCK) shares on Monday afternoon after it revealed it was not going ahead with the acquisition of Emirates Gold because of UK sanctions on the current owner Paloma Precious. Rockfire Resources still has a 10% stake in Emirates Gold. Later in the week it said Sunshine Metals has commenced drilling at the Lighthouse tenement in Queensland. This is part of the option for Sunshine Metals to earn up to 75% of the tenement by spending $2.2m over three years. This has helped the share price to recover but it was still 38.4% lower at 0.225p.

Jarvis Securities (LON: JIM) has confirmed it is not paying a fourth quarter dividend. The FCA is planning a further review into the company’s operations, including the approach to uninvested cash and interest retention. This report has to be delivered by the end of February 2024.The voluntary restrictions on the business are continuing and another review is required before they can be lifted. The reviews have cost more than £1.3m this year. The share price declined 37.4% to 48.5p. That is the lowest it has been for eleven years.