Aviva shares soar on takeover reports

Aviva shares were sharply higher on Friday after the Times reported multiple parties were circling the insurer after a prolonged period of disappointing share price returns.

Aviva will look good value to potential bidders after the company’s valuation failed to recover fully from the pandemic despite strong underlying performance.

“Is Aviva the next FTSE 100 takeover target? The market certainly seems to think so, judging by the 7% share price jump on Friday. Chatter that foreign players Allianz, Intact Financial and Tryg are among the potential interested parties has fired up the shares, hot on the heels of a bullish broker note earlier this week,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“What might they see in Aviva? Well, the business is forecast to have strong free cash flow and excess capital and its valuation is cheap. It has slimmed down in recent years to focus on the stronger parts of the group and there is now an opportunity to increase its position in bulk annuities which looks like a more prosperous market thanks to higher gilt yields.

“Activist investor Cevian Capital is no longer on the shareholder register causing mischief and Aviva is left as one of many stocks on the UK market looking unloved but still offering the potential for long-term value generation.”

Aviva shares were 7% higher at the time of writing in London.

ExxonMobil in talks to acquire Pioneer

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ExxonMobil is in advanced talks over the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources for up to $60 billion, according to reports Wall Street Journal.

The pre-market trading value of Pioneer was up 11.70% to $240.22. Exxon shares dropped 1.7% in the pre-market on Friday. 

News on the deal first appeared in Wall Street Journal on Thursday, when the paper reported on the high likelihood of the deal being done in the coming days.

Pioneer Natural Resources is the third biggest oil producer in the Permian Basin and the tie-up would create an oil behemoth controlling substantial oil production in the region.

The deal is to be the biggest one since the 1991 purchase of Exxon for $81 billion. Exxon is the top U.S. oil producer and its market value was $436 billion at the time of writing.

AIM movers: Tribal bid and 2G cost for Quartix Technologies

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ValiRx (LON: VAL) does not know why the share price has risen, but the cancer therapeutics company points out the merger of EUDA Health and TheoremX. ValiRx has a letter of intent with TheoremX concerning its clinical asset VAL201. The share price is 39.9% higher at 13.5p, having been around 14.5p earlier.

Educational services provider Tribal Group (LON: TRB) is recommending a 74p/share cash bid from Ellucian Company, that was announced late yesterday evening. The share price is 37.5% ahead at 71.9p. It has not been at the bid level since September 2022, following disappointing interim figures. The bid values Tribal at £172m and it will create an international supplier of technology to education and public sectors.  

Crimson Tide (LON: TIDE) has risen following yesterday’s news of the 100-for-one share consolidation planned for 1 November, which the Mobility-as-a-Service scheduling and reporting company hopes will reduce the bid/offer spread and improve liquidity. The share price recovered 14.3% to 1.6p.

Tlou Energy (LON: TLOU) has raised £355,000 at 1.83p/share, which is a premium of around one-quarter to the previous market price. This will finance the Lesedi gas-to-power project in Botswana. The share price improved 7.41% to 1.45p.

FALLERS

Telematics company Quartix Technologies (LON: QTX) slumped 23.8% to 152.5p after it admitted that revenues and gross margins would be lower than expected. Progress in the UK and US has been disappointing, and these markets will be focused on. Quartix has acquired Konetik, which provides the technology for its Evolve product, for €2.5m, with up to €1.4m more payable depending on the sale of Evolve licences. Around 50,000 tracking systems will have to be replaced in France when 2G networks are switched off and this could cost Quartix £4.1m over three years. EBITDA could be £1.1mm lower than forecast this year and £2.4m lower next year. The dividend may be reduced.

The share price recovery at Eqtec (LON: EQT) was short-lived and the price has fallen 17.2% to 0.0575p. Altair Group Investment has reduced its stake from 15.9% to under 13%.

Vast Resources (LON: VAST) has raised £1.8m at 0.19p/share to help to fund the development of the polymetallic Baita Plai project. Commercial production of lead/zinc concentrate has started. Management has reassured the market that it will not need another fundraising for the foreseeable future. The share price fell 16.3% to 0.205p.

Renalytix (LON: RENX) says US patent claims for biomarkers will strengthen the IP underpinning of the KidneyIntelX kidney diagnostics technology. Renalytix has exclusively licenced the biomarkers from the patent filer the Joslin Diabetes Center. Even so, the share price slipped 8.57% to 48p, which is just above its low.

Open AI is reportedly looking into making its own AI chips

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Reuters reported on Friday that, according to insiders familiar with the matter, Open AI is looking into making its own artificial intelligence chips.

The company is known for its Chat GPT server and the move into chips would mark a major shift in their strategy.

While the plan is yet to be approved, the need for manufacturing its own AI chips comes as a result of the high price of AI chips that Open AI needs to acquire in order for its servers to function.  The company has gone as far as evaluating the acquisition targets, Reuters reports. 

Open AI declined Reuter’s request for a comment. 

Reuters cited Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon’s estimates that OpenAI may need roughly $48.1 billion worth of GPUs initially and about $16 billion worth of chips a year to keep operational.

The next steps that Open AI is likely to take in relation to the AI chips are unclear but the reports could signal a major twist in Generative AI’s evolution.

Halifax UK House Price Index: house prices are falling and will likely fall into next year

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As the UK continues to face housing market pressures, Halifax’s September House Price Index released on Friday morning shows that the home prices are falling

UK house prices fell by 0.4 percent in September, marking a sixth consecutive monthly fall. The annual home prices are down by -4.7 percent. An average UK home now costs £278,601.

Halifax said they saw lower instructions by sellers and mortgage costs continue to curtail activity. Halifax noted persistent declines in house prices they saw continuing into next year.

However, some saw an equilibrium building between homeowners wanting to sell and investors and first-time buyers entering the market.

Domestically, there remains a shortage of housing and the decrease in housing sales by home-owners is likely to “be offset by increased demand from renters and investors”, said Tom Brown, the Managing Real Estate Director at Ingenious in a statement provided for Investor Magazine. 

Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders, further noted that:

“More and more sellers have accepted the reality that the market has shifted fundamentally since this time last year. The Halifax’s data shows that prices have fallen 4.7% in that time, and that the average home sold now is fetching £14,000 less than it would have when prices peaked last August.”

“While many sellers are now being more realistic in setting their asking price, we’re still regularly seeing homes go for tens of thousands under asking as proceedable buyers press home to their advantage”, he added.

JD Wetherspoon revenue jumps, records first annual profit since pandemic

JD Wetherspoons has recorded its first annual profit since the pandemic as revenues soared 12.7% in the 52 weeks to 30th July 2023.

The company has enjoyed a resurgence after the pandemic and selling more pints has helped Wetherspoon’s Free cash inflow per share increase over 1,00% to 211.4p.

Operating profit rose 92% to £106m but Wetherspoon did not declare a dividend for the period.

“The home of some of the UK’s cheapest pints has reason to be cheerful. The growth in today’s full year results has seen all revenue streams rise above pre-pandemic levels, and so far this year like for like sales are 17.3% ahead of 2019. Margins also recovered well last year. The group notes increasing certainty over cost inflation, giving cause for hope that margins can keep going in the same direction,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The group has also made meaningful inroads into its debt pile last year with underlying net debt down £250m to £642m including the repayment of the £100m owed under the Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme. That’s been enabled by strong free cash flow, the prudent sale of the company’s interest rate swaps, and proceeds from reducing the size of the estate. The dividend is still off the table, and in the current interest rate environment, prioritising debt reduction is a sensible approach.”

Russian government ordered to regulate fuel oil prices in an on-going effort to fight the price cap

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Putin has ordered his government to provide state funds in efforts to regulate domestic heating fuel prices. Domestic fuel prices have been going up, as the prices for Russian oil and oil products dropped on the International markets, decreasing the country’s export revenue. Now Putin’s government is responding with new measures, stating that it is concerned with getting the country through the sometimes harsh winter.

In some regions, especially in the Russian Arctic, winter temperatures can fall down to as low as -45 degrees Celsius. This means that in winter Russia struggles with surging demand for heating fuel.  

The price cap was first introduced on the 23rd of February and re-enforced again on the 1st of July.

The price cap is a cut off price regulated by global markets above which a product can not be sold. The Russian price cap is now 60 USD per-barrel. This has weakened the Russian economy and hit its geopolitical influence, as its oil and oil products have been easily available at a lower price.  

This was done in an effort to reduce Russian investment in its war on Ukraine. 

Countries voted on a price cap while Poland requested a slightly lower price cap, Ukraine demanded it be at 30 USD per-barrel. Consensus was reached at the current 60 per-barrel.

Tackling a Global Health Crisis and Preparing for an IPO with MicroSalt

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome Rick Guiney, CEO of MicroSalt for a deep dive into the company, the upcoming IPO, and how MicroSalt is tackling a global health crisis claiming millions of lives.

Register for the UK Investor Magazine Virtual Investor Conference 24th October.

MicroSalt has developed a technology that reduces the sodium in salt by 50% by amending the surface area of salt crystals.

Rick explains the health implications of consuming too much salt and how MicroSalt’s technology can help save lives by reducing sodium consumption.

We discuss MicroSalt’s upcoming London IPO and what investors should look out for in the coming year.

AIM movers: Smoove bid and ex-dividends

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A firm bid for online home moving services provider Smoove (LON: SMV) was announced at the end of trading on Wednesday. The original approach was revealed in April. PEXA Group is offering 54p/share in cash, valuing Smoove at £30.8m. The share price has not been high for just over one year. The company joined AIM as ULS Technology on 28 July 2014, when it was valued at £25.9m at the placing price of 40p. The share price rose 17.6% to 51.75p.

Oil and gas producer SDX Energy (LON: SDX) has received a prepayment of $1.9m from DIKA MOROCCO AFRICA, a subsidiary of Chinese company Citic. The cash will pay for the costs of the KSR-21 well in Morocco. The share price improved 16% to 4.35p.

Tavistock Investments (LON: TAVI) has declared an interim dividend of 0.07p/share and says that trading is ahead of expectations in the initial five months of trading in this financial year. This has enabled the financial services business to move into profit at the EBITDA level. This includes a contribution from Precise Protect, which was acquired in April. The share price increased 10.5% to 5.25p.

Light Science Technologies (LON: LST) has appointed Richard Mills as an external consultant to help to find partners through which the company’s controlled environment agriculture technology can be sold. He already has clients that could use the products as part of their systems. The share price recovered 8.33% to 2.6p.

FALLERS

Helium One (LON: HE1) says that its drilling rig has suffered a component failure. Parts are being obtained from outside Tanzania and operations are suspended. It could take two weeks to repair the rig. The share price slumped 20.8% to 3.95p.

Cell-engineering company MaxCyte Inc (LON: MXCT) says third quarter revenues were $7.8m-$8m, which is one-quarter lower than the third quarter of 2022 due to reduced customer activity. Full year revenues guidance has been reduced to $34m-$36m. Trading is not expected to improve this year. There should still be $200m in the bank at the end of 2023. The share price dipped 19.2% to 200p.

Tintra (LON: TNT) has lost some of the gains it made after trading in the shares recommenced on Tuesday. The shares had been suspended since the end of July and since then it has received a bid approach at 150p/share. The share price fell 10.5% to 85p. That is still higher than the suspension price.

Artemis Resources (LON: ARV) has discovered multiple pegmatites at the Greater Carlow in Western Australia and four are enriched with lithium-caesium-tantalum. There is also high grade lithium at the Osborne joint venture. The share price fell 8.93% to 1.275p.

Ex-dividends

Facilities by ADF (LON: ADF) is paying an interim dividend of 0.5p/share and the share price is unchanged at 56p.

Arcontech Group (LON: ARC) is paying a final dividend of 3.5p/share and the share price is 3.5p lower at 94.5p.

Andrews Sykes (LON: ASY) is paying an interim dividend of 11.9p/share and the share price fell 35p to 690p.

Begbies Traynor (LON: BEG) is paying a final dividend of 2.6p/share and the share price declined 0.75p to 108.5p.

Christie Group (LON: CTG) is paying an interim dividend of 0.5p/share and the share price is unchanged at 115p.

EMIS (LON: EMIS) is paying an interim dividend of 21.3p/share and the share price slipped 19p to 1913p.

Frenkel Topping (LON: FEN) is paying a final dividend of 1.03p/share and the share price is down 0.5p to 58.5p.

HSS Hire (LON: HSS) is paying an interim dividend of 0.18p/share and the share price is unchanged at 10.325p.

Judges Scientific (LON: JDG) is paying an interim dividend of 27p/share and the share price is 100p lower at 8640p.

Johnson Service Group (LON: JSG) is paying an interim dividend of 0.9p/share and the share price is 1.3p higher at 133.3p.

Keywords Studios (LON: KWS) is paying an interim dividend of 0.85p/share and the share price rose 31.5p to 1412.5p.

Learning Technologies Group (LON: LTG) is paying an interim dividend of 0.45p/share and the share price increased 1.825p to 67.925p.

Mortgage Advice Bureau (LON: MAB1) is paying an interim dividend of 13.4p/share and the share price declined 9p to 529p.

Real Estate Investors (LON: RLE) is paying a dividend of 0.63p/share and the share price rose 0.25p to 28.25p.

Skillcast (LON: SKL) is paying a dividend of 0.17p/share and the share price is unchanged at 20p.

Smart Metering Systems (LON: SMS) is paying a dividend of 8.32p/share and the share price is 15p higher at 592p.

Trinity Exploration and Production (LON: TRIN) is paying a maiden interim dividend of 0.5p/share and the share price is 1.5p lower at 76.5p.

Imperial Brands leads FTSE 100 higher

The FTSE 100 gained on Thursday with Imperial Brands leading the index higher as concerns about higher bond yields abated and investors adjusted to forward expectations of interest rates.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.4% to 7,443 shortly after midday in London as investors stepped back into equities after several negative sessions driven by interest rate worries.

“It looks like a typical knee-jerk reaction by investors – there have been plenty of signs to suggest central banks will continue with their fight against inflation by keeping rates high, but a lot of people seem to have been too complacent and expected a sudden drop in rates,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“With the message now loud and clear that this situation is unlikely in the near-term, investors can have some sort of certainty and thus reposition their trades accordingly.”

Tesco added to yesterday’s gains adding another 3.4% to 280p. Imperial Brands was the top gainer after announcing trade was in line with guidance and saw further growth in their new generation products.

“The maker of Lambert & Butler cigarettes and blu vapes has bounced back from a sluggish first half.  Imperial Brands is now set to deliver modest growth in revenue and operating profit for the year just ended,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“This is particularly encouraging given the inclusion of the now suspended Russian operations in last year’s comparators. There has been growth in all product categories despite an industry wide decline in tobacco consumption.”

Imperial Brands shares rose 3.7%.

Falling oil prices hit majors BP and Shell who were the FTSE 100’s top fallers, shedding 1.7% and 1% respectively.