Eyes turn to the East

by Alex Crooke, Head of Equities – EMEA and Asia Pacific | Portfolio Manager

With western developed markets still mired in high inflation and economic uncertainty, Asia offers a brighter prospect for investors. The reopening of China and strength of south Asian economies makes BNKR, with its solid position in the region, an attractive proposition.

Nowhere to hide

Surging inflation, high interest rates and a slowdown in global growth meant that overall, performance in 2022 was disappointing for investors across the board. In every region, financial markets posted steep losses, with many registering the worst performance since the 2008 downturn. Little could be done to mitigate the influences of international events, including the fallout from the pandemic, and food and energy supply imbalances caused by war in Ukraine. Short of investing exclusively in energy companies, there were no fool-proof strategies available to insulate investors from poor market performance.


The Bankers Investment Trust (BNKR) was no exception and performance reflected these uncertain markets. The NAV total return was down 11.3%, underperforming the FTSE World Index on a relative basis. A key part of this underperformance can be attributed to weakness in Asian markets, as Covid continued to affect trade and travel. However, with Asian economies looking buoyant following China’s faster-than-expected reopening, is BNKRs now positioned to capture the upside?

What will the year of the rabbit bring?

To answer this question, the first place to look is China, the second biggest economy in the world. It has been the biggest contributor to global GDP growth since the financial crisis and between 2010 and 2020, the country’s economy grew by $11.6trn.i According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Chinese economy is forecast to grow by roughly 5.2% in 2023, versus 3.0% last year.ii Much of this growth is going to be driven by the release of pent-up consumer demand among a Chinese middle class sitting on record-high domestic savings, accrued during extended periods of lockdown.

As activity picks up, sectors likely to benefit are those reliant on consumption and mobility. In fact, consumption has already rebounded strongly, with retail sales rising by 3.5% year-on-year in the first two months of 2023.iii There has also been an uptick in domestic travel and hotel revenues have also increased by around 20% compared to 2022. The latest spending patterns suggest that Chinese consumers are generally engaging in travel closer to home and are more focused on domestic consumption.

Source: Baidu Inc. BloombergNEF
Note: January 2021 congestion = 100

These trends bode well for our positions in China, including leading food producers ChaCha Food and Inner Mongolia and beverage companies Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin. The uptick in domestic travel should also serve as a tailwind to China Tourism Group, which provides tourism, hotel, scenic passenger transport and other travel-related services domestically and across the Asia Pacific region. Our holdings in Sungrow Power, a solar power inverter maker and EV battery producers Contemporary Amperex Technology and Yunnan Energy New Material, reflect our longer-term belief these companies will have a role to play in China’s transition towards a cleaner, more sustainable economy.

Strength is building across Asia

China’s reopening and growth will also be good news for the Asia Pacific region, as its consumer wealth and exports will flow outwards into the wider Asian market. Currently the most dynamic of the world’s economic regions, in February the IMF described Asia as a “bright spot in a slowing global economy”, with growth set to hit 4.7% this year.iv

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and IMF staff calculations 
There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, or forecasts will be realised

Generally, Asian economies are not suffering from the malaise of high inflation to the same extent as the West. As a result, interest rates have not risen as high to counter inflation. This combination of lower inflation and lower rates means that consumers are not under the same cost pressures to tighten their belts. Add to this a drop in oil and food prices, and there are better prospects for spending.

South Asia fared better than the region’s more northerly countries during 2022, and we expect to see further growth throughout 2023 in commodity-heavy economies such as Malaysia, where the outlook is based on resilient domestic demand and contained inflation. In Indonesia, foreign investment and favourable commodity prices are helping to support the economy. Meanwhile, Thailand has seen its most profitable sector – tourism – bounce back, with an estimated 25 million visitors forecast for 2023, more than double its 2022 haul.v

A reversal in fortunes for BNKRs

Global diversification is valuable during periods of uncertainty, acting as an insurance policy against poor market performance in any one region. It allows us to take advantage of the different regional dynamics at play. While our positioning in Asia detracted last year, due to short-term market drivers (the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain disruptions), the longer-term thesis still holds. The rise of the middle class in Asia will continue to increase, Asian economies are shifting from production to consumption, and the region will be instrumental in the shift towards a cleaner global economy.

With a particular focus on cash generation and dividend growth over the medium term, our regional investment specialists take an agile approach to stock picking, based on their local market expertise. This allows us to find businesses that will not only perform well in normal market conditions but will also be resilient during difficult periods and come out of the other side. As the short-term noise/disruptions subside, we believe the regional trends and dynamics that are tied into the medium-and-long term structural growth drivers will come back into the fore. As such, BNKRs is well placed to capitalise on these trends. Following 56 years of dividend increases, we are confident that we will continue to deliver strong long-term performance.

Sources

i Source: The implications of China’s mid-income trap | Financial Times (ft.com)

ii Source : https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/02/02/cf-chinas-economy-is-rebounding-but-reforms-are-still-needed

iii Source: https://www.ft.com/content/a67c7717-c117-4778-b2f3-324d1c9fdd11

iv Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/02/20/asias-easing-economic-headwinds-make-way-for-stronger-recovery

v Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64369279

These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. Any securities, funds, sectors and indices mentioned within this article do not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to buy or sell them.

Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.

Marketing Communication.

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Please read the following important information regarding funds related to this article.

Before investing in an investment trust referred to in this document, you should satisfy yourself as to its suitability and the risks involved, you may wish to consult a financial adviser. This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the AIFMD Disclosure document and Annual Report of the AIF before making any final investment decisions.

  • Global portfolios may include some exposure to Emerging Markets, which tend to be less stable than more established markets. These markets can be affected by local political and economic conditions as well as variances in the reliability of trading systems, buying and selling practices and financial reporting standards.
  • Where the Company invests in assets that are denominated in currencies other than the base currency, the currency exchange rate movements may cause the value of investments to fall as well as rise.
  • This Company is suitable to be used as one component of several within a diversified investment portfolio. Investors should consider carefully the proportion of their portfolio invested in this Company.
  • Active management techniques that have worked well in normal market conditions could prove ineffective or negative for performance at other times.
  • The Company could lose money if a counterparty with which it trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations to the Company.
  • Shares can lose value rapidly, and typically involve higher risks than bonds or money market instruments. The value of your investment may fall as a result.
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AIM movers: Comptoir revenues grow

6

Restaurants operator Comptoir (LON: COM) says revenues grew in double digits and there are plans to open more restaurants. Pre-tax profit fell from £1.5m to £902,000 because of higher overheads. The share price increased 12% to 7p.

Brazil-focused gold producer Serabi Gold (LON: SRB) has signed a strategic exploration alliance with Vale, which will assess large scale copper projects on the Palito Complex. There are four phases during which Vale can earn up to 90% of the project. Serabi would have a put option to sell the other 19% for $10m and a 1.5% net smelter royalty. There will be an initial $5m investment in exploration. The share price rose 9.68% to 34p.

Afrenta (LON: AET) has acquired small stakes in two oil exploration blocks for $17m, plus $10m deposit. The share is 6.35% ahead.  

Shares in Zenova Group (LON: ZED) rose 4.76% to 5.5p when it announced an insulation project at Liverpool John Moores University. This uses the company’s insulation paint.

Marwyn Investment Management has decided not to invest£10m at 10.5p a share in Unbound Group (LON: UBG) and the share price has slumped by 55.2% to 3.25p. There is concern about the footwear retailer’s trading. Management says that it will require further covenant waivers from its funders. Options for raising cash are being considered.  

Live Company Group (LON: LVCG) is selling two underperforming tours: Mythical Beasts and Outer Space. They will raise £350,000 in staged payments. The company is trying to replace the funding that Jason Lee did not come up with as promised. The share price decreased by 20.5% to 1.75p.

SkinBioTherapetics (LON: SBTX) is launching its AxisBiotix-Ps psoriasis in European markets, but sales are still slow to build up. There is positive news from partner Croda, which is putting further investment into commercialising SkinBiotix technology. M&A opportunities are still being assessed.  The share price fell 8.63% to 15.875p.

Credit hire company Anexo (LON: ANX) reported flat 2022 pre-tax profit of £23.9m with housing disrepair work heling to improve revenues. There were additional costs for vehicle emissions litigation, which has some way to go before it is settled. A decline in pre-tax profit to £18.1m is forecast for 2023 as new credit hire business is reduced. That is to improve cash collection and reduce debt. The share price is 3.5% lower at 96.5p.

FTSE 100 briefly turns positive on softer US CPI

Highly anticipated US CPI released on Wednesday helped support equities and saw early FTSE 100 losses evaporate as the index turned briefly positive in afternoon trade.

US CPI for April was slightly less than expected at 4.9% compared to economists’ consensus of 5%. April consumer prices also marked a reduction in inflation from March’s 5% read.

Global equities popped higher on hopes the slower inflation rate could mean the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes in the coming months.

“US CPI came in mostly as expected – although a touch softer at the margin. This should be supportive of equities and a slightly bearish USD for the trading session today as the market breathes a sigh of relief for now,” said Ryan Brandham, Head of Global Capital Markets, North America at Validus Risk Management.

London’s leading index had traded as low as 7,743 earlier in the session before rally to trade positive in the immediate reaction to US CPI. The FTSE 100 was down 13 points at the time of writing. Trade will likely be choppy for the rest of the session.

US stocks started the session on the front foot but gains faded as trade got underway.

With the US debt ceiling limit fast approaching, attention will likely turn to political wrangling in Washington and the prospect of the US government running out of money in early June.

Melrose

Melrose was the FTSE 100’s best performer at the time of writing adding nearly 5% following an upbeat trading update. After recently demerging their automotive unit, Melrose expects revenue for FY2023 between £3.35 billion and £3.45 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between £495 million and £515 million.

Investors would have been pleased to hear the Melrose Chief Executive say he expects this to rise further in the coming years.

“Aerospace has huge embedded value and an EBITDA of £1 billion is achievable within the next few years, much of this coming from the premium Engines business,” said Simon Peckham, Chief Executive of Melrose Industries.

“With the new simplified strategy for Melrose announced today, we look forward to explaining the full potential of Aerospace at the upcoming Capital Markets Event next week, including the route to realising this value.”

Melrose’s optimistic forecast for their aerospace unit helped peer Roll Royce rise 2.5% in sympathy.

Admiral was the top faller after Peel Hunt analysts cut their price target from 2,150p to 2,130p.

The Top Five Trading Mistakes

2

Trading can create a whole host of feelings, from exhilaration to nervousness, and everything in between. Of course, when you start to win, it’s exciting. But when the pressure starts to build, it can get stressful. At all points in the journey, traders need to remember that as much as the wins may be on the horizon, there’s also the risk of losing it all.

From risking more than you can afford to acting on emotions, it’s easy to slip up – especially when you’re just starting out.

Here are five common mistakes to avoid as you navigate your first few months as a private investor or retail trader.

  1. Treating trading like gambling

New traders sometimes apply a gambling mindset to the markets – aiming to make quick cash with little strategy and lots of luck.

But effective trading is a skill to be honed over time. It requires discipline, a solid understanding of fundamental and technical analysis and a clear strategy. Treat your trading abilities as a muscle to strengthen through continued training.

  • Starting out without practising

Don’t assume that you’ll succeed straight away. Trading takes time to get to grips with. It requires skill and practice to generate real returns.

Fortunately, there are lots of resources available online to help you develop these skills. We recommend practising on the demo version of online trading applications before you risk your money.

  • Trading without a plan

To avoid impulsive or emotion-driven decision making, it’s essential to have a plan – including clear objectives, strong analysis, realistic profit and loss forecasts and reasonable time frames.

Take time to create a trading plan that is tailored to your unique trading style, risk tolerance, and financial goals. And remember to review and adjust it regularly to reflect changes in the market and your personal circumstances.

  • Ignoring risk management

Many early traders get lost in the glory of their wins and forget to monitor the risks involved in each trade.

Remember to carefully examine your risk exposure and avoid excessive leverage when trading, continually measuring the profit and loss involved in each trade to ensure a potential reward justifies and outweighs the potential risk.

Also consider that many retail traders also like to diversify their trading, as having a range of instruments to trade means they can build portfolios that reflect their risk appetite and hedge against volatility.

Finally, you can mitigate the risk of losses with risk management techniques, for example, by using Guaranteed Stop Loss Orders which ensure your position is always closed at your pre-selected price.

  • Letting your emotions take hold

Even once you’ve practised, developed a strategy and carefully analysed the performance of your early trades, it’s easy to let strong emotions such as excitement, fear and hope cloud your judgement, leading to impulsive trading decisions.

Avoid making decisions based on news or market noise; instead, trust your plan and focus on the fundamentals of the market. When pressure mounts and emotions run high, those who remain disciplined will reap the rewards.

Trading is a complex art – and it can take years to master. But by taking a disciplined and informed approach, as well as using a powerful platform, early traders can accelerate their development and improve their chances of success in the market.

This article has been written by OANDA.

JD Wetherspoon shares surge with sales set for full-year record

JD Wetherspoon shares surged Wednesday after the company reported bumper trading in the most recent period and breached previous sales records.

Wetherspoon’s like-for-like sales increased by 9.1% in the 13 weeks to 30 April 2023 as the pubs group recorded their best Easter trading period in terms of sales. Wetherspoon also said they had the busiest Saturday ever on the first May bank holiday.

The company said they expected sales for the full year are expected to be their highest on record.

JD Wetherspoon shares were trading over 7% higher at the time of writing on Wednesday.

“JD Wetherspoon has seen a further acceleration in its sales growth, with trading now firmly ahead of pre-pandemic levels. With an extra bank holiday in the last quarter, it’s likely to finish the year with a flourish,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“There will be a fizz of disappointment after the chain indicated that people preferred to stay at home and celebrate the Coronation rather than watch it in the pub.”

“Wetherspoon’s value proposition is holding it in good stead as the cost-of-living crisis continues and the action to bring debt down and optimise its portfolio of pubs is the right move.”

Derren Nathan continued to caution that although the company is heading for a record year, Wetherspoon shares are currently highly valued on an earnings basis.

“However, top line growth won’t necessarily drive a similar uplift in profits, with Tim Martin noting that inflationary pressures had become ‘intractable’, which is likely to weigh on investors’ minds. With the valuation now approaching 30x forward earnings its looking a little vulnerable, particularly if the green shoots seen in consumer sentiment don’t continue to germinate.”

JD Wetherspoon noted net debt was approximately £67m lower than before the beginning of the pandemic, having invested £185m in new pubs.

FTSE 100 directionless as housebuilders fall after housing data

The FTSE 100 closed down on Tuesday after investors failed to find any major catalysts for significant moves in equities.

The FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.18% as traders returned to their desks after the long bank holiday weekend.

However, the tepid trade is unlikely to last long as markets gear up for US CPI tomorrow and further central bank action later this week.

Last week’s Federal Reserve and ECB decisions will be followed by the Bank of England, which is expected to raise rates to 4.5% on Thursday.

“European markets were fairly quiet on Tuesday compared to Asia where there were more pronounced moves up and down,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Housebuilders

Housebuilders were among the top fallers at the close on Tuesday after data from Halifax suggested the uptick in housing activity could be short-lived.

The housebuilding sector rose sharply last week after Nationwide data pointed to a recovery in house prices after months of declines. The timings of the Halifax and Nationwide data provide a mixed picture of the UK housing market.

“The Halifax figures pour cold water on the growing fires of optimism that had been lit across the property market in recent weeks. After clinging onto dwindling annual growth for a few months, the figures are now at a tipping point,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The spring has produced a wave of positive announcements – from mortgage approvals rising for a second consecutive month, to Nationwide’s 0.5% bump in April, and Zoopla’s claim that demand has hit a high for 2023. The RICS residential market survey for March still painted a picture of falling demand, dwindling sales and lower house prices, but there was hope that this could all turn around in April.”

The ‘cold water’ saw Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments fall around 1.7%-2.2%.

IAG was the top riser as optimism grows travel is gaining momentum, and leisure companies are in for a strong summer. IAG closed up 3.87%.

Plant Health Care – Brazil gives first stage approval for its new PREtec product for soybean cultivation, Broker says Buy

It is only the first stage but it is highly significant that Brazil has now accepted the studies of the efficacy of the Plant Health Care (LON:PHC) PREtec product PHC68949 for use in soybean cultivation.

Earlier than expected the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA) the approval is ahead of evaluation by the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (ANVISA) and The Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA).

The group’s PHC68949 product is for use as a seed treatment for the control of root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus brachyurus) in soybean.

Field studies have already shown that PHC68949 may provide control of harmful nematodes comparable to the traditional chemical nematicides and superior to current biological products. 

For Plant Health Care Brazil represents a very substantial market.

PHC68949 is a novel technology that amplifies a plant’s natural defence against damaging nematodes, increasing plant health and yield in a variety of crops.

Nematodes are microscopic parasitic worms living in the soil where they feed on plant roots, killing plants and reducing crop yields.

Globally, nematodes have been estimated to cause up to 12.3% of annual crop loss, worth approximately $157bn per year.

For 2022/23, the soybean harvested area in Brazil is forecast to be 42.9m hectares.

It has been reported that the use of nematicides in Brazil has increased 10-fold since 2015, with soybeans accounting for 52% of the use, followed by sugarcane at 23%, with the remainder on corn, cotton, coffee, potatoes and 14 other crops. 

This approval is an important stage in the whole process of gaining regulatory licenses, which could take another year or two to be granted.

CEO Jeff Tweedy stated that: 

“Today’s announcement marks a significant milestone in fulfilling our strategic objectives to launch transformative commercial PREtec products across substantial growth markets such as Brazil.

As the issue of food security continues to grow, and the farming world looks for technological solutions to achieve a sustainable future with better crops delivering higher yields and reducing environmental effects, our PREtec products will help meet global sustainability targets.” 

Analyst Opinion – Cenkos says Buy

John-Marc Bunce at Cenkos Securities rates the group’s shares as a Buy with a Target Price of 37p a share.

He states that this first stage approval came faster than expected.

Bunce considers that full approval could be a much shorter process than has been stated and that it could well come before the end of this year.

That would enable a product launch in 2024.

He also states that the Brazilian market opportunity alone is significant, backing up his predictions of close to break-even this year and with first profits showing up next year.

This morning the group’s shares are up 4% at 10.50p and looking capable of a renewed climb to an early 12p and above.

Marshalls volumes slump

0

Building products manufacturer Marshalls (LON: MSLH) has been hit by a 14% decline in like-for-like revenues in the first four months of the year, even though prices have been increased. Volumes have fallen by one-fifth. Operational gearing means that this has a greater effect on profit.

Peel Hunt has cut its 2023 pre-tax profit forecast by one-fifth to £70m, down from £90.4m in 2022. Cost cutting has helped to reduce the fall in profit.

Because Marley is included this year, but not in the comparatives, overall revenues are 12% ahead after price rises of 8-10%. Like-for-like Marley sales are 6% lower. The loss-making Belgian business has been sold.

Weak housebuilding is hampering the business. Housing volumes are forecast to fall by 17% this year.

The fully listed Marshalls share price slipped 8.8% to 271.8p, which is 13 times prospective earnings. The total dividend is forecast to fall from 15.5p a share to 10.5p a share this year, providing a yield of 3.9%.  

This should prove to be the bottom of the cycle with a recovery in profit to £70m forecast for 2024, helped by further cost cutting.

Direct Line shares fall as motoring claims rise

Direct Line can’t seem to catch a break. After suffering surging weather-related claims last year, rising motoring claims are now proving to be a thorn in the side of the insurance group.

Direct Line said increasing motoring claims, especially those for damage, are ‘expected to put pressure on earnings in 2023’.

Shares in the group were over 5% weaker early on Tuesday.

Total group gross premiums rose 9.7% to £805.7m in Q1 2023.

“The road ahead continues to look bumpy for Direct Line. Just as weather-related claims ease back to more normal levels, there’s little in the way of a let-off for the Motor division as damage-related claims tick higher,” said Matt Britzman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Add in claims inflation that continues to run at high single-digit levels, and the outlook for insurance profitability gets a little murky. There was positive news on the pricing front, especially in Motor, where planned rate hikes fed through to higher gross premiums. There’ll likely be more pricing action over the year as Direct Line looks to plump up margins in Motor.”

Solvency remained broadly unchanged from the prior year-end level, which meant an unwind of some of the improvement management saw early in the quarter. Along with pressure on earnings, the lack of solvency improvement could mean the dividend is under some pressure this year.”

AIM movers: Capital Metals project financing agreement and Purplebricks cash shock

0

Mineral sands project developer Capital Metals (LON: CMET) has signed a potential 100% offtake and investment agreement with LB Group, which is the largest manufacturer of titanium dioxide pigments and sponge. LB Group will fully fund the Eastern Minerals project in Sri Lanka up to the estimated cost of $81m in the preliminary economic assessment. After that the joint venture will fund additional costs on a 50/50 basis. The plan is to build up production to 1.65 million tonnes per annum. Most of the due diligence for the deal has already been done. The share price jumped 54.6% to 4.25p, which is back to the level in March although it is off the high for the day.

Echo Energy (LON: ECHO) plans to sell a 65% working interest in Santa Cruz Sur to Selva Maria Oil for £1.725m, including £400,000 worth of shares in Interoil, the operator of the assets. That leaves the oil and gas company with a 5% stake and an option to repurchase a further 5%. This will provide the cash required by Echo Energy for working capital in the short-term and enable funding of the assets. The share price rose 38.5% to 0.045p.

Cyber security company Osirium Technologies (LON: OSI) has reached annualised recurring revenues of £2.04m at the end of March 2023. New customers have been gained in the utilities, chemicals and public sectors. There is a growing awareness about the need for cyber security. The share price recovered 16.7% to 1.75p, but it is still one-third lower than at the start of the year.

Purplebricks (LON: PURP) says that the number of new instructions did not increase in the fourth quarter and that means revenues and EBITDA will be worse than expected in the year to April 2024. The company’s payment processor is withholding a portion of remittances and cash was £9.1m at the end of April 2023, compared with previous expectations of £15m. The formal sale process continues, and management says that it wants to conclude this as soon as possible so the future of the business is clarified. The share price has slumped 63% to 2.025p.

On Friday afternoon, Kromek (LON: KMK) announced that it was raising £7m at 5p a share and could raise up to £1m from an open offer to qualifying shareholders. The company is experiencing the highest ever level of interest in its imaging and biological threat detection technology. The cash will be invested in sales and marketing, development and manufacturing. The share price fell from 6.7p to 5.06p on Friday and it has declined a further 3.16% to 4.9p.

Oil and gas producer San Leon Energy (LON: SLE) is still trying to sell its 11% shareholding in Nigeria-focused oil and gas company Decklar Resources Inc. It has also loaned $5.5m to Decklar, which needs to secure its own funding before the disposal can happen. Decklar has delivered 31,000 barrels of oil to the Edo refinery and 7,500 barrels to the DMCL’s refinery so far this year. The San Leon Energy share price slipped 2.78% to 26.25p.