Three UK Real Estate Investment Trusts trading at a deep discount

The UK property has had a tough year. The problems for commercial property sparked by the pandemic are yet to be fully alleviated – and may not be for some time – while residential property is suffering due to higher borrowing costs and the cost of living crisis.

However, for investors prepared to look past the doom and gloom, there are a number of UK Real Estate Investment Trusts trading at deep discounts that may provide long-term value.

Triple Point Social Housing REIT (59% Discount)

The Triple Point Social Housing REIT develops and rents social housing across the UK. They develop specially designed properties to meet the needs of vulnerable people. Their ambition is to be the leading UK supported housing investor while providing investors with an investment with a measurable positive impact.

As of 31st December, the portfolio’s NAV was 109.06p per share, up from 108.27p a year prior. Shares are currently trading at 50.75p.

The trust paid 5.46p dividends in 2022 equating to a 10.5% yield at the current share price. The trust is highly geared at 40%.

Urban Logistics REIT (26% Discount)

Urban Logistics manage a portfolio of logistics assets that facilitate the ‘last mile’ deliveries to homes and businesses across the UK. Their assets are located across the UK close to transport infrastructure including ports and motorways. The trust has made a number of recent acquisitions including assets from Columbia Threadneedle Street which encompasses properties in Southampton and Rugby. Their tenants include Volvo and Amazon.

As of 30th September, the portfolio’s NAV was 184.54p per share. The current share price is 140.75p. Investors will watch for their upcoming report and any updates to NAV.

The current yield is around 5.4% and gearing is 15%.

Balanced Commercial Property Trust (28% Discount)

The Balanced Commercial Property Trust is a diverse portfolio of UK commercial property including retail/restaurants, office spaces and logistics units.

The FTSE 250 constituent’s largest holding is St Christophers Place near Oxford Street. The trust recorded 15% decrease in NAV in the last quarter primarily due to the revaluation of logistics assets. The trusts rental collection has rebounded to around 98% after a dip during the pandemic.

NAV per share was 118.5p per share as of 31st December.

The trust has a 5.4% yield and 25% gearing.

Tesla shares fall as operating margins crash

Tesla shares fell in US trade yesterday as the electric vehicle maker reported a material compression in operating margins and a slump in cash generation due to a broad price reduction.

Tesla has slashed the price of their vehicles in an attempt to attract more customers. After a series of price cuts over the past year, the Model 3 now starts at less than $40,000.

Increasing competition would have been a factor in deciding to build market share on pricing as traditional automakers ramp up investment in their EV offerings. Tesla has been seen as a premium brand, and the move to lower prices will diversify their customer base before traditional car makers snatch share in the budget area of the market.

“Tesla is still an aspirational brand in the USD 60,000-120,000 range. EVs from traditional premium automakers are still playing catch-up with Tesla in terms of performance and the overall user experience,” said Orwa Mohamad, Analyst at Third Bridge.

The move has shown early signs of success with robust revenue figures. Revenue for Q1 2023 was 24% higher than the year prior at $23.3bn – but was lower than the $24.3bn generated in Q4 2022.

Operating margins in Q1 were 11.4% compared to 19.2% a year ago.

The prospect of lower operating margins for the foreseeable future was the overriding factor in sending Tesla shares down 7% in the pre-market.

“Margins were always going to be in the driving seat when it came to determining market sentiment this quarter, following Tesla’s sixth round of price cuts in the US this year,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“While the group’s valuation is in a more reasonable position than it has been, it’s still vulnerable. A large reason for this is it’s unclear where margins are going to settle as price cuts continue to come through the line, the extent of which can’t be fully mapped at this point, and which could see margins losing further traction.”

FTSE 100 drops on rate hike worries

UK stocks started the day deep in the red following the release of UK inflation data which raised the prospect of additional rate hikes by the Bank of England.

London’s leading index recovered some of the losses throughout the session and was trading down just 0.2% at 7,893 at the time of writing. The index had touched lows of 7,871 earlier in the session.

The more UK-focused FTSE 250 was down 0.6%. Most other major European equity indices were in positive territory.

The decline in UK stocks was sparked by worries about the next move by the Bank of England’s voting committee which will now have to factor in UK inflation at 10.1% – higher than economist’s estimates.

“The Bank of England remains under pressure to keep a lid on inflation, so we can’t rule out another rate rise in May,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Markets quickly priced in additional rate hikes to interest rate futures.

FTSE 100 risers

British American Tobacco was the FTSE 100’s top riser on Wednesday after the tobacco company said they expected organic revenue growth of 3-5% in the year ahead. It also noted sharp growth in their non-combustibles business which now accounts for around 15% of revenue.

British American Tobacco shares were 3.5% higher at the time of writing. Imperial Tobacco jumped on BATS’ coattails and rose 2%.

FTSE 100 fallers

Fresnillo fell 2% as the possibility of higher interest rates sapped interest for precious metals. The silver miner fell as gold retreated 0.2% and silver reversed sharp losses to trade 0.1% higher.

Higher inflation driven by soaring food prices is a source of concern for the UK’s shoppers who will likely steer away from Ocado’s premium online shopping services. Ocado shares were down 2% on Wednesday as investors steered away from their equity.

Oil prices were down around 2% on Wednesday making BP and Shell less attractive – BP was down 2% while Shell slipped 0.8%.

Cornerstone momentum continues

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Foreign exchange payments services provider Cornerstone FS (LON:CSFS) says momentum continued in the first quarter of 2023. Revenues of more than £1.95m were more than double the first quarter of 22022. SP Angle has upgraded its forecasts and Cornerstone FS could make a profit in 2024.

Increasing direct revenues mean that gross margins are improving. There was positive EBITDA in the first quarter.

Full year forecast revenues have been increased from £5.7m to £6.5m and a £709,000 loss is expected. A 2024 pre-tax profit of £31,000 is forecast on revenues of £8.6m.

The AIM-quoted company could generate cash this year and cash should build up over the coming years. That could finance additional acquisitions to build the scale of the business.

The disposal of Avila House for £300,000 is still awaiting regulatory approval and it should happen in the second half of 2023. A subsequent platform licence should generate income of £290,000 over 12 months.

The share price dipped 3.33% to 7.25p. The 2022 results should be published before the end of May.

AIM movers: Advanced Oncotherapy Nasdaq hopes and Woodbois refinancing requirements

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Proton therapy cancer treatment developer Advanced Oncotherapy (LON: AVO) announced a strategic review yesterday. The share price has recovered 54.6% to 4.25p. A Nasdaq listing is being considered, which could involve selling the business to an existing Nasdaq company. There are no current discussions. Management hopes to obtain additional working capital by issuing more loan notes. That could extend the company’s cash until the end of May.

North Sea oil and gas consolidator Kistos (LON: KIST) is acquiring Norway-based Mime Petroleum for the assumption of $111m in debt and the issue of six million warrants exercisable at 385p each. The share price rose 13.5% to 332.5p. This is the first acquisition in the Norway jurisdiction. Windfall taxes make the UK and Netherlands sectors less attractive. Proforma annual combined production for the enlarged group is between 8,500 and 10,500 barrels of oil equivalent/day. Proforma reserves and resources will be 80 million barrels of oil equivalent/day.

Hummingbird Resources (LON: HUM) produced 27,262 ounces of gold in Mali in the first quarter of 2023 and the all-in costs were 11% lower at $1,109/ounce. There were 26,380 ounces of gold sold at $1,878/ounce. Group EBITDA was $17.5m in the quarter. The second quarter is likely to be similar. The Kouroussa mine should commence production by the end of June. The share price increased 13.7% to 13.5p.

The FDA will meet with ImmuPharma (LON: IMM) on 7 June to provide guidance on the phase 2/3 adaptive study of Lupozur for treating lupus. The study could start in the second half of 2023. The share price is 4.41% to 3.08p.

Woodbois (LON: WBI) says that the lender to its Denmark-based Woodgroup timber trading subsidiary has given notice on a $6m lending facility. The facility provided by Sydbank is fully drawn, but there is also $3.1m in cash deposits with Sydbank, which wants a refinance plan by the end of May. The uncertainty has hit the share price, which is down 61% to 0.4p.

Shares in Echo Energy (LON: ECHO) have declined a further 14.5% to 0.0325p after yesterday’s announcement of a reduction in cash due to lower oil and gas production and sales. It will be difficult to raise cash from a share issue in current market conditions.

Brazil-based Serabi Gold (LON: SRB) produced 8.005 ounces of gold in the first quarter of 2023, up 13% on the first quarter of last year. The company had $13.9m at the end of March 2023. The share price has been hit by allegations that it does not have approval to mine at Coringa in Brazil. Management says that the trial mining licence has been automatically renewed for 12 months to February 2024. The share price fell 10.3% to 30.5p.

Podcast platform operator Audioboom (LON: BOOM) says first quarter revenues, excluding Morbid which has left the platform, were flat, although monthly downloads increased by 13%. There were 38 million unique users in March. Net cash fell to $5.1m at the end of March 2023, but it should improve later in the year. finnCap still expects growth in revenues and improving margins. The share price slipped 4.73% to 352.5p.

Antofagasta, Greatland Gold, and Golden Metal Resources with Alan Green

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to have Alan Green back on the podcast after a brief hiatus. We delve into key market themes and three UK equities.

UK inflation remains above 10% and presents the Bank of England with a problem. Hike rates to fight inflation and risk the negative economic consequences of higher rates. Or hold off and risk soaring prices in a cost-of-living crisis. We discuss their options.

Antofagasta has released their Q1 production report and we look at the merits of the copper miner in the current environment.

We review Greatland Gold and the Havieron gold project. Alan provides an overview of the latest updates from their JV with Newcrest.

We finish with a look at the upcoming Golden Metal Resources IPO.

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Woodbois – $6m lending facility being withdrawn, shares collapse 65%, will the company survive?

Investors are now questioning whether Woodbois (LON:WBI) will survive one of its lenders asking for its money back?

The £9m market capitalised business is involved in Africa-focused forestry, timber trading and afforestation.

Sydbank, which has provided various banking arrangements to Woodgroup ApS, a group wholly owned subsidiary, has called in the $6m debt facility.

Having a floating charge against the subsidiary assets, which include a $3.1m cash balance, Sydbank has heavy power against the company. The cash will be immediately used to offset part of the $6m facility.

Woodbois has until the end of May to come up with a method or a scheme for the repayment of the $2.9m balance.

The group’s broker Canaccord Genuity has placed its rating on the group’s shares as “Under Review” so that worries investors even more than the sudden totally unexpected cash demand.

Restructuring advisers have been called in and the group is undertaking a “concerted contingency planning exercise” – understandably in reaction the group’s shares have collapsed this morning by some 65% to 0.36p after hitting 0.22p earlier.

Two reasons to buy Lloyds shares now

Lloyds shares have recovered from the mini-banking crisis but are still significantly below their recent highs. With the Lloyds share price hovering below 50p, many will be considering buying the stock at these levels.

Here are two reasons why.

Lloyds dividend

The Lloyds dividend is becoming increasingly attractive. After many years of pitiful payouts following the financial crisis, Lloyds dividend has steadily increased to now yield 4.9%.

The bank hiked their 2022 full-year dividend by 20% demonstrating a willingness to bolster shareholder distributions. One would expect this policy to continue in the future. The dividend is well covered, leaving plenty of space for higher dividends without causing too much pressure on cash generation.

Lloyds profit doubled last year and key profitability measures such as net interest margin are expected to be steady in the year ahead.

The favourable dividend will make Lloyds a cornerstone position in the income portfolios for many investors.

Valuation

The capital appreciation prospects for the Lloyds share price are clear. However, the outlook for the UK economy may make the journey to substantial gains for Lloyd shares a bumpy one with a number of risks to consider.

The mortgage market is improving but many economists are predicting a slowdown in the UK housing market. A material decline in housing activity will be a concern for Lloyds mortgage and lending business and may lead to more impairment charges.

Nonetheless, on a historical basis, Lloyds trades at an attractive PE Ratio of 6.2x. Lloyds Price-to-book ratio is just 0.7x. These are valuations that are hard to ignore.

One should remember, there has been an ongoing distortion of UK banking valuations compared to US and European peers since the pandemic. This makes Lloyds current value seem cheap not only to the FTSE 100 average but good value on a relative basis compared to international peers.

Should Lloyds rerate in line with either the FTSE 100 average or international peers, the upside from here would be outstanding.

The big question is how long this disconnect from peer valuations persists.

Billington hikes dividend on back of profit recovery

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AIM-quoted steel structures supplier Billington (LON: BILN) has increased its full year dividend from 3p a share to 15.5p a share on the back of a sharp recovery in profit.

In 2022, revenues edged up from £82.7m to £86.6m, but pre-tax profit jumped from £1.3m to £5.8m. The dividend is 2.5 times covered by earnings. There is £11.6m in cash. There is a £1.63m pension surplus, net of deferred tax.

The steel structures division went from an operating profit of £98,000 to £4.44m. The new specialist protective coatings business is making a contribution. Projects were undertaken at Shepperton Film Studios and Sandwell Aquatics Centre. The order book is strong and there have been new orders and opportunities for energy-to-waste facilities, warehousing and battery factories.

Capital spending is helping to improve efficiency and margins. Energy prices were fixed, but this is coming to an end. Prices are falling back. Order margins are improving.

There was also a significant improvement in the profit from Easi-Edge and Hoard-it businesses. Weaker construction markets may hold back progress.

Management is considering opening a sales office in Europe and using some of its cash to make acquisitions. This could diversify the range of services offered.

The 2023 pre-tax profit forecast has been trimmed, but an increase to £8m is still expected. The cash pile should continue to grow.

The share price dipped 1.3% to 390p, which is still near to the three-year high. The prospective multiple is less than eight and the forecast yield is more than 5%.

FTSE 100 edges higher as miners gain on upbeat China data

The FTSE 100 carved out minor gains on Tuesday as mixed data from the UK and China provided insight into two of the world’s major economies.

China’s economy expanded faster than expected in the first quarter growing 4.5% vs the 4% estimated by economists. The data is good news for the global economy and will be particularly helpful for the FTSE 100’s natural resources sector.

“The relaxation of Covid restrictions was always going to result in stronger economic activity. The key question is for how long it can sustain this momentum,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

The UK’s economy showed another sign of slowing down on Tuesday with a rise in unemployment and a decrease in job vacancies. The UK’s unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from 3.7% in the three months to February. Average wage growth accelerated to 5.9% in the year to February.

“The UK economy is already flatlining with high inflation a pernicious force, but there’s been a fall in vacancies and rise in unemployment, which should add to disinflationary forces building up,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Open positions are down 4% on the January to March quarter compared to the previous three months, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%. This is likely to be music to the ears of Bank of England policymakers, who want to see evidence that the tight labour market is easing, before taking the pedal off rate hikes.”

As indicated by Streeter, the bad news in the economy may prove to be good news for equity markets looking forward to the eventual slowdown in rate hikes.

FTSE 100 risers

Entain shares were up 5.8% at the time of writing after the betting company released a positive Q1 trading update. Their US joint venture provided a reason for optimism, with 70% revenue growth over the period.

“The cost-of-living crisis can’t deter punters from enjoying a flutter across Entain’s suit of brands, including Ladbrokes and partypoker to name a couple. First quarter performance was strong, albeit mainly in line with market expectations, with active customer numbers reaching record levels,” said Matt Britzman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Miners were among the top risers following the better than expected China GDP data. Fresnillo gained 3% to 799p while Anglo American added 2.8% to 2,791p.

Also helping Fresnillo higher was an upgrade by UBS, who raised Fresnillo to ‘neutral’ with an 825p price target.

FTSE 100 fallers

Despite an upgrade from UBS, Centrica was the FTSE 100’s top faller at the time of writing shedding 2% of its value. The utilities company has added 50% from their October lows and today’s decline can be attributed to profit-taking.

GSK was down 1.3% after agreeing to acquire Bellus Health Inc for $2bn.