AIM movers: KCR Residential REIT discount and new low for Versarien

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KCR Residential REIT (LON: KCR) reported a reduction in net assets per share from 33p to 31.7p with potential for the revaluation of the Coleherne Road property. The share price rose 15.2% to 9.5p, which is a 70% discount to NAV. The market capitalisation is around £4m. Net debt was £11.4m at the end of 2022 and there are continuing cash outflows.

Video games developer tinyBuild (LON: TBLD) is investing in new games, so there has been a reduction in net cash. However, the strong back catalogue means that the business is resilient and not dependent on one game becoming a hit. The share price has been falling this year, along with its sector peers, but today it has risen 14.3% to 52p, which is less than seven times prospective 2023 earnings.

There has been a 13.8% recovery in the share price of SkinBioTherapeutics (LON: SBTX) to 16.5p following yesterday’s results. That is higher than at the start of the week. There was a modest increase in revenues and a higher loss. Psoriasis treatment AxisBiotix-Ps generated all the revenues of £77,000. There was £766,000 in cash at the end of 2022, prior to the recent £2.6m fundraising. Net cash is expected to be back down to £1.1m by June 2023.

Employee benefits company Personal Group Holdings (LON: PGH) is higher on the day as it recovers from recent lows. The share price is 9.07% higher at 204.5p. Pre-tax profit fell from £4.7m to £4.3m in 2022, but new business won means that it could bounce back to £6.1m in 2023, with a forecast dividend of 11.2p a share providing an attractive income stream.

Graphene technology developer Versarien (LON: VRS) will need additional funding ant that has knocked 24.8% off the share price to 2.325p. This is a new low. The non-exec directors have waived their remuneration and executive pay is under review. Non-core activities will be sold.

Having disposed of its Italian assets earlier in the week Coro Energy (LON: CORO) has agreed heads of terms to acquire a rooftop solar portfolio with a capacity of 3.25MW in Vietnam. This will cost $1.7m. The share price fell 10% to 0.225p.

Windward (LON: WNWD) shares declined by 5.88% to 40p ahead of 2022 results tomorrow. The maritime information technology is expected to report an increased loss on revenues of £21.3m. Forecasts were downgraded earlier this month.

Panthera Resources (LON: PAT) is raising £1m at 4.25p a share. The share price has slipped 5.75% to 4.1p. The cash will finance gold exploration and development in India and West Africa. Panthera Resources recently secured litigation financing of up to $10.5m for the damages claim against the Indian government.

Alibaba shares soar on break up plans

Alibaba shares closed 12% higher overnight after the Chinese tech giant announced plans to break the company into six parts to help unlock value in the company’s business units and relieve pressure from authorities.

Alibaba shares are around 70% below their HK$298 high in 2020. Alibaba is listed in the US and Hong Kong.

Alibaba, and other China tech giant, have faced pressure from Chinese authorities and the Alibaba founder Jack Ma disappeared for many months after criticising the China regulator. He later resurfaced in Tokyo.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould explains the opportunity for unlocking value in Alibaba’s sprawling business by allowing specific units continue as their own entity.

“Often corporate reshuffles act as a catalyst for the share price on the basis that the individual parts of the business are worth more than the whole company. Breaking up the business could unlock this hidden value.”

“As overhauls go this is about as dramatic as you could get and follows damaging crackdowns on the company and the wider sector by the Chinese authorities. It looks like Alibaba is seeking to assuage Beijing’s concerns about monopolistic behaviour.”

Six separate companies

Under the proposed breakup, Alibaba will split into six different groups, each with their own specialist area.

  • Cloud Intelligence Group
  • Taobao Tmall Business Group
  • Local Services Group
  • Global Digital Business Group
  • Cainiao Smart Logistics
  • Digital Media and Entertainment Group

Each entity will undergo an initial public offering and new leadership will be appointed.

FTSE 100 edges higher on mild optimism the banking crisis is over

The FTSE 100 edged higher on Wednesday as investors dipped their toes back into stocks heavily beaten down by the mini banking crisis over the past two weeks.

A speech by the Bank of England’s Governor this week, in which he said the recent saga is not another crisis on the scale seen in 2008, appears to have marked a turning point in sentiment.

The FTSE 100 was trading up 0.75% to 7,540 at the time of writing. US futures were pointing to a strong open this afternoon.

“The FTSE 100 made a solid start on Wednesday morning, continuing the cautious recovery for markets from the trauma of the collapse of SVB and forced union between Credit Suisse and UBS earlier this month,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Mould was also upbeat about the reappointment of Sergio Ermotti as UBS CEO after the takeover of Credit Suisse.

“Bringing in Sergio Ermotti as CEO – a key figure in UBS’ recovery from the Great Financial Crisis – to oversee the combination between Switzerland’s two biggest banks is a move likely to help salve market wounds.”

UBS shares have stymied losses since the Credit Suisse takeover – another factor which will help boost confidence. FTSE 100 banks Barclays, Natwest and Lloyds were all higher on Wednesday.

“With banking worries put on the back burner for now, with no further stresses in the system emerging, investors’ appetite for a bit more risk is returning,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Next

Next was the FTSE 100’s top faller on Wednesday. Despite a better than expected profit before tax of £870m for the year ending January 2023, the retailer said profit would fall to £795m in the year ahead.

“Sales and profit guidance for the year ahead has been maintained, with both expected to decline from the levels seen last year. The shares fell off the back of today’s announcement as the market woke up to the struggles ahead,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Retail’s a tough sector to be in during an economic downturn, and continued inflation is expected to push costs up and impact sales. There’s plenty of challenges ahead for Next, reflected in the group’s valuation which is trading below the long-term average.”

Next share were down 5.5% at the time of writing.

Ocado was the FTSE 100’s top riser, gaining 6%, a day after the premium online retailer released disappointing figures for their most recent trading period.

Next shares on sale as lower profit forecast

Next shares were down sharply on Wednesday morning after the retailer forecast lower profit before tax for the year ahead and predicted full price sales would fall 1.5%.

Profit before tax for the year ending January 2023 was £870m, slightly better than the £860m guided for earlier this year. However, the group said they saw profit before tax falling to £795m in the coming full year.

In addition, the retailer marked down their selling price inflation predictions to 7% suggesting margins could be squeezed if input prices rise. A 7% increase in prices itself is a concern amid a cost of living crisis.

Next shares reacted negatively to the news and were down over 7% at the time of writing.

“Next delivered full year profits ahead of guidance. That was thanks to increased retail sales which are typically higher margin, as well as a strong end of season sale. Significant reductions in shipping costs eased pressure on the price hikes that Next is planning on passing through to customers,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“But with selling prices still expected to rise by 7% in the first half of this year, we think it could be tough for consumers to stomach given that a lot of consumers’ budgets are already stretched thin. Next’s position as a middle-of-the-road retailer means its customers could slide down the value chain rather than fork over a little more.”

Next is operating in a challenging retail environment with choppy economic data providing a gloomy outlook for the UK economy – albeit an improved outlook compared to the end of 2022.

“Overall, Next, and the rest of UK retail, are still facing a very difficult economy in 2023. But with inflation starting to moderate, things are not looking as bad as they were a few months ago,” said Charlie Huggins of Wealth Club.

88 Energy – good hydrocarbon indications at Hickory-1 exploration well

The Alaskan North Slope is the location for the Project Phoenix in which 88 Energy (LON:88E) has a 75.2% working interest.

The group’s Hickory-1 has up to six conventional reservoir targets that are expected to be appraised.

In an Operations Update just issued by the company it has declared that Hickory-1 successfully intersected and drilled the SMV-A, B and C reservoirs.

Oil shows have been noted by the initial interpretation of logging-while-drilling data, which also showed elevated mud gas readings, high resistivity signatures and crossover of neutron density curves indicating potential hydrocarbon pay.

The current depth of the Hickory-1 exploration well is over 8,820 feet.

The work is ongoing and will take another 3-5 days, with a Target Depth of 11,000 feet.

Project Phoenix

Project Phoenix is located on the central North Slope of Alaska and encompasses approximately 82,846 gross acres.

It is situated on-trend to recent discoveries by Pantheon Resources Plc (LSE: PANR) in multiple, newly successful play types across top, slope and bottom-set sands of the Mid Schrader Bluff, Canning and Seabee Formations.

Independent mapping has demonstrated that these plays extend into the Phoenix acreage.

Project Phoenix holds an estimated unrisked conventional total of 647MMbbl of prospective oil resources (mean unrisked, net to 88E), independently assessed by Lee Keeling and Associates in Q3 2022.

The acreage has been significantly de-risked by the recent Pantheon drilling and flow tests on their adjacent acreage to the North, coupled with data from Icewine-1 well logs (encountered 380 ft of net oil pay within SMD sands) and a modern 3D seismic data set (FB3D).

Analyst Opinion

James Mccormack at Cenkos Securities noted that the £125m capitalised group had a A$17.5m Placing in February, which leaves it able to cover its required working capital and overheads for the year ahead.

He rates the group’s shares, currently 0.52p, as a Buy.

S&U improves lending quality

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Used car finance and property bridging loans provider S&U (LON: SUS) reported full year results in line with expectations. The dividend continues to increase, and the total is 133p a share for this year. Trading will not be easy this year, but S&U has a strong track record.

In the year to January 2023, underlying pre-tax profit dipped from £47m to £41.4m, after higher bad debt provisions of £13.9m. Even so, the provision is still relatively low. Used car prices continue to rise, but at a lower rate than early last year.

Net debt was £192.4m at the end of January 2023, compared with committed facilities of £210m.

Advantage motor finance is improving borrower quality because of the current economic uncertainties. Demand remains strong, though.

The Aspen property bridging loans business increased its lending with the closing loan book worth £113.9m, up from £63.9m. Loan to value levels have been reduced to reflect falling house prices. The pre-tax profit improved from £3.4m to £4.5m, after a £80,000 impairment relating interest on a loan.

Thee are regulatory changes coming into force, but S&U appears to be prepared for them.

There could be a small improvement in pre-tax profit this year and a further increase in the dividend. At 2350p, down 50p, the shares are trading on nine times prospective earnings with a forecast yield of 5.8%. The share price reflects the short-term uncertainty, rather than the long-term record and prospects.

AIM movers: Unbound offer and SkinBioTherapeutics cash outflow

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Footwear retailer Unbound Group (LON: UBG) has received a 10.5p a share potential offer from WoolOvers Group. There would also be a contingent value right that would give shareholders the proceeds of any insurance claim related to business interruptions due to Covid lockdowns. Unbound management says it would be likely to accept this offer. The share price has jumped 106.3% to 8.25p.

Verditek (LON: VDTK) has received a €167,500 order from Roof Tile Group, which will incorporate the Verditek lightweight solar panel in its metal roof tiles. The share price is continuing its recent recovery and is 48.6% ahead at 1.3p – a new high for 2023.

Mosman Oil & Gas (LON: MSMN) is reviewing its corporate structure and the best way to commercialise the Cinnabar-1 well. There is also potential for the Australian interests, particularly for helium. This may involve spinning off one of the Australian assets as a separately quoted company. The share price rose 18.2% to 0.065p.

Promotional products technology platform developer Altitude Group (LON: ALT) has won multiple contracts that will have a significant impact on revenues. Zeus has upgraded forecast 2022-23 pre-tax profit from £800,000 to £900,000 and next year’s forecast from £1.1m to £1.3m. The share price increased 14.6% to 47p. That is the highest the share price has been for nearly two years.

Shares in SkinBioTherapeutics (LON: SBTX) slumped 13.3% to 12.75p after it reported a modest increase in revenues and a higher loss. Psoriasis treatment AxisBiotix-Ps generated all the revenues of £77,000. Marketing spending has been limited and the company will seek a multinational partner. Progress is being made with the cosmetic ingredient partnership with Croda. There was £766,000 in cash at the end of 2022, prior to the recent £2.6m fundraising. Net cash is expected to be back down to £1.1m by June 2023.

Scottish gold producer Scotgold Resources (LON: SGZ) is continuing its share price decline – down 10.1% to 12.5p. Falling ore grades at the Cononish gold mine mean that Shore has its forecasts under review because of concerns about the financial position of the company.

Chief executive Debbie Bestwick says that she will step down as chief executive of video games developer Team17 (LON: TM17) when a replacement is found. The share price fell 8.22% to 407.5p. Team17 reported a 52% jump in 2022 revenues to £137.4m and a 35% increase in adjusted pre-tax profit to £47.1m, which excludes £9.2m of one-off acquisition related costs. Own IP represents 41% of revenues, up from 22% in 2021.  

Early FTSE 100 gains diminish after Bank of England Governor speech

The FTSE 100 had a roaring start to Tuesday’s session following comments by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggesting rates hikes could soon come to an end, and said the current banking crisis was not like the 2008 financial crisis.

The FTSE 100 traded as high as 7,520 in early trade on Tuesday, but fell back to trade dead flat by midday.

Early optimism saw another jump in banking shares. Barclays traded above 140p before falling back to trade negatively, Natwest shares also gave up all of their early gains.

“It’s all about confidence right now – and anything which reassures shareholders, creditors and depositors that their money is safe with the banks is one step further away from the carnage which claimed SVB and Credit Suisse,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

The confidence Mould alludes to appears to be fragile. Traders selling early strength suggests markets are conscious the current crisis is not yet completely over.

Diageo CEO steps down

After a 10-year stint as CEO of Diageo, Sir Ivan Menezes will step down and be replaced by Debra Crew. Diageo shares fell on Tuesday.

“The market reaction, with a mere 0.5% decline in the share price, shows that investors aren’t worried about big changes to the business. Instead, this looks like as smooth a transition as an athlete passing the baton in a sprint relay,” said Russ Mould.

Analysts highlighted the precarious role for the new CEO with Diageo shares trading above 20x earnings.

“Growth is expected to slow in the short-term however, and an earnings multiple of about 20x means Debra Crew will be under extra pressure to perform,” commented Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Ocado

Ocado shares were the FTSE 100’s top faller after the company released an update on their Ocado retail partnership with Marks & Spencer. Revenue, customer numbers and orders per week were all higher, but investors were apparently unhappy with the lower average basket size and shares fell over 5%.

“Ocado’s retail arm is in a difficult position. While the cost-of-living crisis rumbles on, being a more premium name in the sector comes with immediate challenges,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“However, the group seems to be doing well with the tools at its disposal. Although the number of items people are buying per-shop is dropping, which is to be expected as post-Covid shopping habits normalise, this is being successfully offset by higher prices.”

Diageo shares dip as CEO Sir Ivan Menezes steps down

Diageo shares slipped on Tuesday after the global drinks giant announced CEO Sir Ivan Menezes will step down and replaced by Debra Crew.

Sir Ivan Menezes has been in charge of Diageo since July 2013 and shareholder disappointment on Tuesday is understandable.

During his tenure, the Diageo share price has nearly doubled and is firmly established as one of the world’s largest alcohol companies by market cap.

“A change at the top is always a leap into the unknown, although slightly less so when the incumbent is already part of the team. Diageo is the sixth largest company on the FTSE 100, and the new captain is unlikely to be given much of a honeymoon period by shareholders,” said Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Sir Ivan will be a tough act to follow. Diageo now sells over 200 drinks brands across 180 markets, and is a category leader in many of its spirits categories. And on a fitting note for his departure, its flagship Guinness brand has become the number one beer sold in pubs in the UK.”

“Growth is expected to slow in the short-term however, and an earnings multiple of about 20x means Debra Crew will be under extra pressure to perform.”

Diageo shares are down 2.7% year-to-date and has a 2.1% yield.

Vietnam Holding offers an attractive discount to NAV after outperforming benchmark

After a challenging year in 2022, Vietnam Holding (LON:VNH) now trades at an attractive discount to NAV, which is difficult to overlook as Vietnamese equities continue their recovery.

Last year was a tough year for Asian equities. Prolonged Chinese COVID-19 restrictions and concern about US interest rates curtailed interest in region and broad equity indices suffered. MSCI Asia ex Japan declined 19.35% in 2022.

The MSCI Frontier Market Index of global frontier markets, of which Vietnam accounts for 30%, was down 26.05%.

Demonstrating Vietnam Holding’s investment selection prowess, VNH’s NAV per share declined by 30.1% versus a 39.8% decline in the Vietnam All Share Index (VNAS) benchmark.

The substantial declines means the VNH Investment Trust presents value from both an earnings perspective and discount to NAV.

Vietnam Holding Price-to-Earnings

As of 28th February, the VNH portfolio has an estimated 2023 earnings Price-to-Earnings ratio of 8.3. This falls to 7.3 for 2024 earnings.

These earnings multiples represent deep value for a portfolio comprised of growth companies domiciled in a region set to be promoted to an emerging market from an frontier in the coming years.

In addition, the value in Vietnam Holding shares is compounded by the 14% share price discount to the portfolio’s NAV. The trust’s managers are conscious of the current discount and are taking steps to help reduce the disparity.

“The Board made appropriate decisions for implementing share buybacks as a means of addressing the discount between the share price and the NAV. During the period in review, the Company bought back 505,037 shares at an average price of USD 3.248, adding an estimated 0.26 % in NAV per share accretion,” said Hiroshi Funaki, Chairman of Vietnam Holding.