AIM movers: Jersey Oil & Gas bounce back and Shearwater expectations slashed

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Jersey Oil & Gas (LON: JOG) is in advanced negotiations for a farm-out of the Greater Buchan Area with a significant North Sea company. There is an exclusivity period until the end of April. Once a partner is secured then regulatory approvals can be sought. There are estimated resources of more than 100 million barrels of oil. The share price bounced back by 52% to 232.5p.

Arc Minerals (LON: ARCM) has extended the exclusivity agreement with Anglo American until 21 April. The proposed joint venture is planned for copper interests in North Western Zambia. The original agreement was announced in May 2022 and Anglo American would have the right to earn 70% of the joint venture for an aggregate investment of up to $88.5m. The share price recovered 15.9% to 4p.

Sustainable fuels developer Velocys (LON: VLS) has risen on the back of the latest UK government consultation paper on sustainable aviation fuel, which identifies the Fischer Tropsch process as part of the main technology. This can be supplied by Velocys, which has active projects in the UK and US. The share price increased 8.73% to 3.55p.

TPXimpact (LON: TPX) has been granted a waiver on its debt covenants on its £30m facility as of 31 March. The lender is reviewing cash flow forecasts so that it can make a decision concerning future waivers. The digitisation services provider is expected to make a modest profit in the year to March 2023. More than £30m of new business has been won in the latest quarter. The share price rose 5.26% to 30p.

Shearwater Group (LON: SWG) full year results will be below expectations. Cenkos has slashed its revenues forecast for the cyber security company for the year to March 2023 from £37.7m to £27m and suspending 2023-24 forecasts. There is still £3.4m in cash after the expected full year loss and £1.2m in capitalised development costs. This is a significant downgrade on the last day of the financial year and it will mean that investors will lose confidence in Shearwater’s ability to meet expectations. The share price slumped 39.6% to 49.5p.

The UK Competitions & Markets Authority has launched a phase 2 investigation into the UnitedHealth Group bid for healthcare IT provider EMIS (LON: EMIS). UnitedHealth had offered to sell a part of its existing business, but this was not deemed to solve the concerns. The share price fell 23.2% to 1391p. The bid is 1925p a share in cash.

Trading in minerals projects developer Aura Energy (LON: AURA) shares has been suspended on ASX, but it continues on AIM. The ASX suspension is expected to continue until 4 April when an announcement will be made. The share price declined by 18.8% to 13p.

Kore Potash (LON: KP2) says it continues to negotiate an engineering, procurement and construction contract for the Kola potash project. The financing proposal could be provided within six weeks of that contract being finalised. There was $5m in the bank at the end of 2022. The share price slipped 3.7% to 0.65p.

Jersey Oil & Gas – shares lift 23% on GBA ‘farm-out’ news

The big news today for shareholders in Jersey Oil & Gas (LON:JOG) is that it is at an advanced stage in agreeing to farm-out a material interest in its Greater Buchan Area.

It has lit up the group’s shares, which have jumped 23% on the news, to around 188p.

Jersey Oil & Gas is a UK exploration and production company which is focused on building an upstream oil and gas business in the North Sea.

It holds a significant acreage position within the Central North Sea referred to as the Greater Buchan Area, which includes operatorship and 100% working interests in blocks that contain the Buchan oil field and J2 oil discovery and an 100% working interest in the P2170 Licence Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d, that contain the Verbier oil discovery and other exploration prospects.

This positive news, which could see finalisation by the end of April, could also see an interest being taken in the company’s surrounding exploration assets.

The other party has not as yet been named.

Brokers very keen

Analyst Daniel Slater at Zeus Capital has a very positive outlook on the group’s prospects and upon his company’s total risked net asset value has a massive 856p price objective.

Analyst Brendan Long at WH Ireland believes that it is ‘game on’ for the energy crisis and that the timing in respect of the commodity price cycle is excellent for both the counter party and Jersey Oil & Gas. He is also very positive about the news.

At finnCap their analyst Jonathan Wright considers that even under his conservative assumptions on the group’s prospects that there is a significant upside potential for the group’s shares from a successful deal. He has a risked valuation of 660p a share.

CEO Andrew Benitz stated that:

“We are pleased to be in advanced exclusive negotiations with a well-funded industry heavyweight and whilst there can be no guarantees of a successful conclusion, we are aiming to finalise the farm-out in the near future and look forward to updating shareholders shortly.”

Guident Investor Presentation March 2023

Guident Investor Presentation March 2023.

Download Slide Presentation.

Guident are striving to make autonomous vehicles safer. Guident deliver competitive advantages for Autonomous and Electric Vehicles (AV/EV) fleet operators and manufacturers via a Remote Monitor and Control Center (RMCC) platform utilizing AI and secure, low-latency network connectivity.

Guident intends to develop, build and operate the first RMCC for AVs, ground-based delivery devices and any autonomous device, a safety-first concept that will be deployed allowing fleet operator and vehicle manufacturers to meet state mandated regulatory requirements.

Molten Ventures portfolio company Ledger completes Series C

Molten Ventures has announced its portfolio company, Ledger has close its Series C extension round and maintained a €1.3 billion valuation.

Ledger, a leading global platform for digital assets and Web3, secured investment from Molten Ventures and new investors including True Global Ventures, Cite Gestion SPV, Digital Finance Group and VaynerFund.

“This latest round is testament to the strength of Ledger’s business and its revolutionary technology that will continue to play a critical role in the future of crypto assets and blockchain,” said Martin Davis, Chief Executive Officer of Molten Ventures.

Davis continued to touch on rounds for Isar Aerospace who recently announced the closing of its Series C round raising $165m and the Series A for their metaverse portfolio company, Hadean.

“Together with Isar Aerospace and Hadean, all three rounds demonstrate the quality of our portfolio, and the ability of our companies to maintain or increase valuations and attract financing even in challenging environments.”

Molten Ventures portfolio companies include Freetrade, Cazoo, Crowdcube and Revolut.

FTSE 100 gains as NASDAQ enters bull market

The FTSE 100 was building momentum on Thursday with London’s leading index grinding out a near 1% gain after the heavy NASDAQ entered a bull market overnight in US trade.

Technology shares were spared the volatility caused by the banking crisis, and in some circumstances were even seen as a safe haven.

Microsoft and Apple – with a combined $3.7 trillion market cap – are up 17% and 23% respectively so far in 2023. Chip-maker NVIDIA is the NASDAQ 100’s top riser this year, adding a whopping 86% since the start of the year.

The NASDAQ’s milestone has grabbed headlines on Thursday and added to improving sentiment around the banking sector.

“Investors continued to bid up stocks as worries about the banking system faded away, with the FTSE 100 having risen nearly 3% since the start of the week. The market was lifted by a broad range of sectors including retail, banking, travel and property,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“That suggests confidence is rebuilding among investors who have been shaken by the rapid unfolding of issues concerning a handful of US and European banks, and as expectations for interest rates once again swerved in a new direction.”

The FTSE 100’s top gainers included names such as Ocado and JD Sports which have often led either declines or advances in the index in recent months.

Ocado was up 7% on Thursday and is now 25% higher than the mid-March low.

FTSE 100 ex-dividend

FTSE 100 fallers were dominated by companies trading ex-dividend. Mondi, Smith & Nephew, abrdn, Taylor Wimpey, Aviva and Phoenix Group all traded ex-dividend on Thursday.

Apart from the stocks trading ex-dividend, there were only 10 FTSE 100 companies in negative territory on Thursday at the time of writing.

Decliners included defensive stocks such as BAE Systems, British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands.

AIM movers: Inland Homes subscription and ex-dividends

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Inland Homes (LON: INL) launched a subscription for up to £4.6m at 10p a share yesterday evening and the share price recovered 30% to 6.5p. Founder Stephen Wicks is subscribing £2.5m. Trading in the shares will be suspended on 3 April until the accounts are published.

Oil and gas company PetroTal Corp (LON: PTAL) generated free cash of $162m last year. It also increased its after tax NPV10 to $1.75 a share. The share price rose 10.8% to 43.75p.  

James and Olga Simmons have increased their stake in oil and gas company Prospex Energy (LON: PXEN) from 5.3% to 6.02%. The share price is 9.38% ahead at 8.75p, having risen 157% over the past week due to other share buying.

Sanderson Design Group (LON: SDG) has secured a licensing deal with J Sainsbury. This covers the Sainsbury’s Habitat homewares and Tu clothing and includes the Morris & Co and Scion brands. New products will be launched in 2024.

There are more delays for the electric vehicle contract due to redesigns and that means that Trackwise Designs (LON: TWD) will run out of cash more quickly than expected. Delayed payments mean that the current cash may only last until May, and not August, unless the problem is sorted out quickly. There will be an impairment charge on assets with the 2022 figures.  The share price dived 43.5% to 0.65p, compared with the recent fundraising price of 1p.

Restaurants operator Tasty (LON: TAST) fell into loss in 2022 despite higher revenues following the ending of lockdowns. Inflationary pressures and staff shortages hit the business, but they are easing. There is still £7m in the bank. This year’s performance is ahead of expectations. The share price slumped 13.5% to 2.25p.

Test systems supplier Pipehawk (LON: PIP) reported a larger interim loss on lower revenues. Timescales of projects have been extended because of lack of availability of components. Order books are good. The share price declined 9.26% to 1225p.

XLMedia (LON: XLM) is refocusing its business on the US sports betting market as the states legalise this form of gambling. This year, US sports betting contributed two-thirds of the digital media company’s revenues and there are more markets opening up. Operating costs have been reduced. Cenkos has trimmed its 2023 forecast, but still expects earnings of 3.1 cents a share.  The share price slipped 4.24% to a new low of 14.125p.

Ex-dividends

GlobalData (LON: DATA) is paying a final dividend of 18.3p a share and the share price fell 15p to 1220p.

Duke Royalty (LON: DUKE) is paying a dividend of 0.7p a share and the share price declined 0.6p to 32.1p.

IDOX (LON: IDOX) is paying a final dividend of 0.5p a share and the share price rose 0.3p to 62.3p.

Quartix Holdings (LON: QTX) is paying a final dividend of 6.3p a share and the share price is unchanged at 260p.

Wynnstay Group (LON: WYN) is paying a final dividend of 11.6p a share and the share price slipped 7.5p to 11.6p.

Are Lloyds shares a buy as the banking crisis subsides?

Lloyds shares were sent sharply lower in the recent banking crisis as FTSE 100 banks sank on concerns we could be entering a financial crisis reminiscent of 2008.

These fears were quashed this week by the Bank of England Governor as he dismissed the current saga being anywhere near as severe as the 2008’s crisis.

This sparked a wave of optimism through markets and banking stocks globally have rallied from their worst levels.

“With banking worries put on the back burner for now, with no further stresses in the system emerging, investors’ appetite for a bit more risk is returning,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown, earlier this week.

The risk investors are prepared to take on is being channelled into US and European banks. The broad global banking sector is now significantly off the worst levels. The S&P Global 1200 Financials Sector Index is around 4% higher than last week’s low.

Lloyds shares

The collapse of SVB which spilled over into Europe and culminated in the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS send waves through global banking shares. Many now trade at large discounts to recent highs.

This includes Lloyds shares which are over 10% below 2023 highs. This in itself is by no means a buying signal but for long term holders, the current Lloyds share price provides a more attractive entry point than it did just a month ago.

Lloyds now trades at just 6x earnings, lower than Natwest’s 6.5x earnings but higher than Barclays 3.5x. Banking earnings multiples have persistently been below the FTSE 100 average for many years now so comparisons against the FTSE 100 benchmark are of little use.

After a period of rising interest rates, the bank themselves said they see their net interest margins plateauing in the coming year. This would suggest capital appreciation will be a result of multiple expansion, as opposed to earnings growth, in 2023.

Lloyds dividend

One reason why investors may be attracted to Lloyds shares is the dividend. And the income case is compelling.

Lloyds currently yields 5.1% – among the FTSE 100’s top 20 yielding stocks based on historical payouts. Their dividend is covered 3.3x meaning there is plenty of scope for dividend hikes in the future.

In their recent annual report, Lloyds said: “The Board remains committed to future capital returns. Going forward, the Board intends to maintain its progressive and sustainable ordinary dividend policy alongside further returns of surplus capital at the end of the year as appropriate.”

Risks

Although Lloyds shares offer relative value and a progressive dividend, there are of course risks to consider. The banking crisis is not yet completely offer. A rout in Deutsche Bank shares due to a single bet on their Credit Default Swaps last week highlights nervousness around European banks.

In addition, the health of the UK economy – the UK property market in particular – could impact Lloyds share price in the coming months.

UK state pension age rise to be pushed past the general election

According to reports by the BBC, the UK government is expected to announce today they will push the decision to raise the state pension age past the next general election.

Rishi Sunak’s government is way behind in the polls and increasing the pension age could be construed as a direct attack on their core base.

The state pension age is currently 66 and is set to rise to 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2048. There was an expectation the government raise the pension age to 68 sooner than the currently scheduled 2048.

The announcement to hold the pension age where it is will be made at a time French towns and cities continue to be rocked by protests following the decision by the French President to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64.

“Given we have literally seen rioting on the streets in France in response to a proposed rise in the state pension age, it comes as no surprise that the UK government has backed away from the idea of accelerating a planned rise in the UK state pension age to 68,” said Tom Selby, head of retirement policy at AJ Bell.

Selby continues to explain how such as decision would be ‘political suicide’.

“With less than two years to go until the general election, hiking the state pension age faster would likely have been political suicide for the Conservatives, who are already trailing Labour in the polls. 

“The decision will come as a huge relief to people in their late 40s and early 50s who could potentially have been forced to wait an extra 12 months to receive their state pension as a result.

“Increasing the state pension age faster now would also arguably have been unfair, as average life expectancy has actually fallen recently, while forecasts of future life expectancy improvements have also been significantly scaled back. Given improving life expectancy is one of the primary justifications for raising the state pension age, accelerating the planned rise to age 68 when life expectancy has dipped would be an extremely tough sell, to put it mildly.”

Genedrive – company wins NICE approval for its MT-RNR1 ID diagnostic kit for use in the NHS

The point of care molecular diagnostics company Genedrive (LON:GDR) has announced that the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has given positive final guidance for its MT-RNR1 ID Test kit to be used by the NHS.

The NICE Early Value Assessment programme selects and recommends new technologies that will make a real difference to patients and provide the most value for the NHS.

The MT-RNR1 ID Kit rapidly and accurately identifies babies with the MT-RNR1 genetic variant who may be at risk of hearing loss if given aminoglycoside antibiotics.

It is stated that no other test is available to provide results quickly enough to inform decisions on antibiotic prescribing in emergency care.  

Genedive has been developing and commercialising a point of need molecular diagnostic platform that is low cost, rapid, versatile, easy to use and robust.

It is needed for the diagnosis of infectious diseases and for the use in genotyping which is the patient stratification process, for detection of pathogen and other indications.

The AIM quoted group has assays on the market for the detection of MT-RNR1, HCV, certain military biological targets, a high throughput SARS-CoV-2 assay and a point of care test for Covid-19.

It is also currently developing a genetic test for CYP2C19 metaboliser status.

NICE’s recommendation on using the Genedrive® MT-RNR1 test in NHS England and Wales through its EVA program will support additional data generation requirements whilst the test is being used routinely within NHS sites. It is anticipated that this data collection process will be several years in duration. 

CEO David Budd stated that:

We are appreciative of the thorough review conducted by the NICE team. The final report issued today entirely reflects the preliminary conclusion published in February.

As we continue with commercial roll out and product adoption, the NICE EVA framework will give us the opportunity to support specific performance and impact data that NHS users and commissioners may look for in future guidance.

NICE, whose guidance is formally applicable to the NHS in England and Wales, is an internationally respected health authority and the tools and data supplied in its review will be relevant to the rest of the United Kingdom and to the other international markets which we are now accessing.”

Prior to today’s news the £34m capitalised group’s shares closed 8% lower last night at 36.75p.

AIM movers: KCR Residential REIT discount and new low for Versarien

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KCR Residential REIT (LON: KCR) reported a reduction in net assets per share from 33p to 31.7p with potential for the revaluation of the Coleherne Road property. The share price rose 15.2% to 9.5p, which is a 70% discount to NAV. The market capitalisation is around £4m. Net debt was £11.4m at the end of 2022 and there are continuing cash outflows.

Video games developer tinyBuild (LON: TBLD) is investing in new games, so there has been a reduction in net cash. However, the strong back catalogue means that the business is resilient and not dependent on one game becoming a hit. The share price has been falling this year, along with its sector peers, but today it has risen 14.3% to 52p, which is less than seven times prospective 2023 earnings.

There has been a 13.8% recovery in the share price of SkinBioTherapeutics (LON: SBTX) to 16.5p following yesterday’s results. That is higher than at the start of the week. There was a modest increase in revenues and a higher loss. Psoriasis treatment AxisBiotix-Ps generated all the revenues of £77,000. There was £766,000 in cash at the end of 2022, prior to the recent £2.6m fundraising. Net cash is expected to be back down to £1.1m by June 2023.

Employee benefits company Personal Group Holdings (LON: PGH) is higher on the day as it recovers from recent lows. The share price is 9.07% higher at 204.5p. Pre-tax profit fell from £4.7m to £4.3m in 2022, but new business won means that it could bounce back to £6.1m in 2023, with a forecast dividend of 11.2p a share providing an attractive income stream.

Graphene technology developer Versarien (LON: VRS) will need additional funding ant that has knocked 24.8% off the share price to 2.325p. This is a new low. The non-exec directors have waived their remuneration and executive pay is under review. Non-core activities will be sold.

Having disposed of its Italian assets earlier in the week Coro Energy (LON: CORO) has agreed heads of terms to acquire a rooftop solar portfolio with a capacity of 3.25MW in Vietnam. This will cost $1.7m. The share price fell 10% to 0.225p.

Windward (LON: WNWD) shares declined by 5.88% to 40p ahead of 2022 results tomorrow. The maritime information technology is expected to report an increased loss on revenues of £21.3m. Forecasts were downgraded earlier this month.

Panthera Resources (LON: PAT) is raising £1m at 4.25p a share. The share price has slipped 5.75% to 4.1p. The cash will finance gold exploration and development in India and West Africa. Panthera Resources recently secured litigation financing of up to $10.5m for the damages claim against the Indian government.