Prudential disappoints in first year as Africa and Asia focused business

A disappointing first year as an Africa and Asia focused business sent Prudential shares lower on Wednesday as the company reported declines in IFRS profit after tax and new business profit for 2022.

Prudential shares were down over 6% in early trade on Wednesday. However, Prudential shares are significantly higher than their October lows after the a strong rally sparked by the China reopening.

The company pointed to resilience in the face of COVID-19 and the future opportunities in their geographies, but investors struggled to look past a slow 2022 caused by COVID-19 restrictions in Mainland China and Hong Kong.

Indeed, adjusted operating profit increased 8% on a constant currency basis (4% drop actual currency) with 9% higher APE sales. APE sales are a measure of new business not recognised by IFRS.

After demerging M&G in 2019, Prudential has shifted their strategy to focus Asian and African Insurance business an is heavily reliant on their Mainland China joint venture with CTIC for growth.

“2022 was the first full year for the Group as an Asia and Africa focused business. We have delivered a resilient performance against a backdrop of Covid-19-related disruption and broader macroeconomic volatility,” said Anil Wadhwani, Prudential CEO.

“The results reflect the advantage of our diversified business model across the Asia region, highlighted by a balanced contribution to APE sales and new business profit from Hong Kong, the Chinese Mainland and Taiwan and from South-east Asia, including Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia.”

Prudential noted a sharp rebound in activity in the first two months of 2023 and are expecting Mainland China and Hong Kong to be a integral part of their growth in 2023.

Their growth markets segment that includes India, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and its businesses in Africa showed signs of promise as adjusted operating profit rose 13% to $1,057m.

Prudential increased their dividend 9% to total 18.78 cents per share for the full year, but still yields less than 2%.

Angus Energy – will Lucan’s shareholders get lucky this year?

After having lost £111.95m in the year to end September 2022, the big question is will shareholders in the AIM-quoted Angus Energy (LON:ANGS) see any recovery in the current year?

It is an independent onshore oil and gas development company focused on advancing its portfolio of licensed UK assets.

It must be stated that £110.31m of that loss was down to a derivative position based upon the future production and calculated using forward gas prices as at the year end.

The energy hedging contract was based upon selling forward half of the production at the group’s Saltfleetby Gas Field, in East Lincolnshire. The contract, from July 2022, was for three years, based upon a price set in the Spring of 2021.

Perhaps understandably because prices in the intervening period have risen significantly, due to the Ukraine conflict. However, it only covered half of the production for that period of time.

Its Interests

The £48m capitalised group, which is due to hold its AGM at the end of this month, is focused on leveraging its expertise to advance its portfolio of UK assets as well as acquire, manage and monetise select projects.

Described as an independent onshore Energy Transition company, it has a complementary portfolio of clean gas development assets, onshore geothermal projects, and legacy oil producing fields.

The company is not only the 100% interest operator of the Saltfleetby gas field, which is in producing gas directly to the National Grid, but it also has exploration and production at its conventional oil assets of Balcombe, Lidsey and Brockham.

  • Angus Energy holds a 25% stake in and is the Operator of the Balcombe Discovery along with its partners Cuadrilla and Lucas Bolney.

The Balcombe site (PEDL 244) lies approximately 8km south-east of Crawley near the village of Balcombe.

  • The Lidsey Oil Field is located in the production licence PL241, onshore West Sussex near Bognor Regis, on the southern flank of the Weald Basin.

The company is the operator and majority partner of the licence and currently holds an 80% interest in the field.

  • The group is the operator and majority partner of production licence PL235 located in the Weald Basin, onshore UK. It currently holds a 80% interest in the Brockham Field.

The company has stated that it plans to use its geological, drilling and engineering skills to take the opportunity to repurpose onshore hydrocarbon wells for the production and storage of geothermal energy and the use of older fields for the storage of CO2 or hydrogen.

Proposed Board Reorganisation

Former Head of Exploration at BP, Richard Herbert, will be appointed Chief Executive with full control of day-to-day operations, while George Lucan is looking to take up the role of Executive Chairman focussing upon strategy and stakeholder relations.

Shareholders

There are 3,484,101,882 shares is in issue, of which Forum Energy Technologies is the largest shareholder (13.4%), others include Aleph Fin C (6.60%), Kemexon (6.39%), Knowe Properties (2.81%), Jaspal Singh (1.17%), Gneiss Energy (1.14%), PJ Tidswell (0.81%), Marr Sebastian (0.61%), Aleph Commodities (0.53%) and Adegbenga Alabi (0.38%).

Outlook

With production at Saltfleetby increasing, the company looks forward to achieving positive operational cashflow. It is confident that it will be a successful producer, with flow testing planned for late March and gas export expected from 1st April.

It will continue to explore further gas opportunities and mature its geothermal projects in the south-west of England, with the intention of not only creating shareholder value but also to address the urgent need for transition energy projects.

Conclusion

The group has the vision of becoming a significant player in the aggregation, production and storage of gas, with its current interests progressing it is now beginning to put its bricks in place in order to achieve its ambitions.

After quite a transformational year in 2022 the company now looks to be on track for delivering sales gas volume growth and profits in 2023.

Its shares, which were up to 2.72p last September, are currently just 1.375p each, from which level there should be a significant upside.

Clareti operational gearing for Gresham Technologies

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Data integrity and banking integration software provider Gresham Technologies (LON: GHT) is reaching the point where the operational gearing of the additional revenues from Clareti software will begin to show through.

Clareti can provide accurate data and information to banks and financial businesses to enable them to make better decisions. This is important for efficiency and compliance.

The fully listed company’s revenues grew from £37m to £48.7m in 2022. That was helped by currency movements and a full year contribution from post-trade processing software supplier Electra, but there was still strong organic growth. The fastest growth was in the US, but this is an international business that is growing in all regions. Pre-tax profit improved from £4m to £6.9m.

Clareti

Clareti revenues will continue to become more important. Last year, was the first time that Clareti made a profit with the other lower margin businesses previously more than covering its loss. Combining Clareti with Electra will provide additional opportunities.

Annualised recurring revenues have reached £28.1m. Management has set a target of 20% growth in Clareti revenues. It estimates that 40% of this will drop through to EBITDA.

There are more than £42m of contracted revenues for this year. Singers forecasts a 2023 pre-tax profit of £7.4m with flat earnings due the corporation tax rate rise. After that profitability is likely to accelerate with £9.6m forecast for 2024 and £12.2m in 2025.

The dividend is likely to be maintained at 0.75p a share, which would be more than ten times covered by 2023 earnings. This means that the cash pile will build up and could reach nearly £20m by the end of 2025.

At 165.5p, the shares are trading on 22 times prospective 2023 earnings, although that could fall to 14 by 2025.

Resurgent FTSE 100 lifted by banks and financials

The FTSE 100 was gaining on Tuesday as the index bounced back from the SVB-induced volatility with banks and financials driving the recovery.

The FTSE 100 was 0.8% higher at the time of writing. Despite the volatility over the past few trading sessions, the index is still positive for 2023.

Rolls Royce was the top riser, gaining over 3%, but the rally was broad with banks and financials featuring heavily among the best performers on the day.

Barclays and Lloyds were both more than 2% stronger, although they were still significantly below pre-SVB levels. A strong bounce back from US banks was helping improve sentiment and enticed bargain hunters.

“There was a sense some calm had been restored to markets after a bruising few sessions,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

US CPI

A rally in stocks progressed through the session as the index attempted to recover the past sessions losses. The steady tick higher enjoyed a boost from US CPI which came in bang in line with estimates of 6%.

The data confirmed US inflation was trending lower, but still remained at historically high levels. In the wake of SVB’s collapse, this poses a problem for the Federal Reserve who will announce their interest rates decision next week.

Some market participants will expect the Federal Reserve to push on with higher rates to validate their measures to stabilise the financial system over the weekend. This may upset equity investors looking forward to a Fed ‘pivot’

“As inflation continues to remain elevated, more work will likely be required to restore price stability. However, the recent events in the banking sector will signal to the Fed to tread cautiously when implementing additional monetary policy tightening,” said Nathaniel Casey, Investment Strategist at Evelyn Partners.

The debate between a 25bps or 50bps interest rate hike was briefly superseded by SVB, one would expect this to return with a vengeance as we approach next week’s rate decision.

AIM movers: Blue Star Capital investee launch and profit-taking for Yu Group

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Pendulum, a company incubated by Blue Star Capital (LON: BLU) investee company SatoshiPay, where it holds 27.9%, has launched Spacewalk, a blockchain bridge connecting the Stellar and Poladot networks. The PEN token has commenced trading on Singapore-based MEXC Global Exchange. SatoshiPay owns 5.5% of Pendulum. The Blue Star share price jumped 52.8% to 0.275p.

The share price of cannabis-based medicines developer Celadon Pharmaceuticals (LON: CEL) continues to recover from its low of 49.5p in January prior to the regulatory approval of its Midlands facility. It is 17% higher at 137.5p. Celadon Pharmaceuticals has applied to the Home Office to update its existing licence to begin to supply customers.

Some good news for waste-to-energy technology company Eqtec (LON: EQT). The Italia MDC project is operational, and the first energy supplied. This shows the efficacy of the syngas technology and there are more projects in the pipeline. The share price improved by 9.26% to 0.295p.

Volvere (LON: VLE) increased 2022 revenues from continuing operations from £30.6m to £38m and pre-tax profit jumped from £1.07m to £2.33m. The 80%-owned frozen pastry products manufacturer Shire Foods was the principal subsidiary. The discontinued operations lost £2.57m. NAV is 1382p a share and there was £20.8m in cash. There are investment opportunities in multiple sectors. The share price rose 8.81% to 1050p.

Audio visual products distributor Midwich Group (LON: MIDW) increased revenues by 41% to £1.2bn and pre-tax profit by 42% to £45.2m as the impact of lockdowns eased. The company raised the dividend by 35% to 15p a share, although that excludes the 3p a share special dividend in the previous year. Bank facilities have been increased from £80m to £175m. Growth is expected to be faster than the market. The share price is 6.85% ahead at 468p.

Energy supplier Yu Group (LON: YU.) reported 2022 figures in line with expectations, although the bad debt provision increased from 3.1% to 7.7% of sales. Year-end contracted revenues of £247m underpin the 2023 revenue forecasts. The bad debt provision could reduce this year, but will remain relatively high. The share price fell 17.6% to 580p, but it is still 158% higher than at the end of 2021.

Nucleic acid-based Optimer binders developer Aptamer (LON: APTA) interim revenues of £1m were in line with the previous trading statement and management believes it can achieve full year revenue forecasts. However, this is fourth quarter weighted so there is caution and Liberum cut its 2022-23 forecast from £6m to £5m. That would leave net cash of £1.93m at the end of June 2023. The share price is 16.5% lower at 33p.

Contract delays at energy and water efficiency products supplier Eneraqua Technologies (LON: ETQ) mean that some work will come through later than expected. Revenues for the year to January 2023 were 54% ahead, but lower than the £61.3m finnCap expected. The order book is worth £110m and currently 72% should fall in 2023-24. That means that 99% of this year’s forecast revenues of £80.1m should be covered.  The share rice slipped 12.9% to 305p – till above the 277p placing price in November 2021.

Futura Medical (LON: FUM) says erectile disfunction gel MED3000 is available in Europe under the Eroxon brand. The FDA has asked additional questions concerning the application for US marketing authorisation and approval will not be achieved until the second quarter. The share price has recovered from earlier lows and is down 6.19% to 47p.

Harnessing SVB Volatility with Frederick & Oliver

The UK Investor Magazine Podcast is joined by Marc Kimsey, Head of Equities at Frederick& Oliver, for dissection of the SVB-induced volatility and the opportunities and pitfalls presented by the current environment.

We start with looking at the drivers of the recent volatility and explore the implications of SVB’s failure and how UK markets could be impacted going forward.

With the FTSE 100 at 7,500 we look at where the index could go next and the potential catalysts for the next significant move.

Marc provides a recap of Vodafone and insights into companies that may start to look attractive and the tactical approach to allocating capital.

Greatland Gold – Newcrest and Newmont ready to chat after recent standoff could be very good news

News overnight that after a four-week standoff it is rumoured that Nevada’s Newmont Corporation and Australia’s Newcrest Mining are set to talk.

The subject for discussion is the February $24.5bn bid by Newmont for Newcrest Mining, the Australian partner with Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) in the important Havieron gold prospect.

Approach rejected

The Newcrest Board rejected the unsolicited approach a month ago, with immediate reactions that its business was worth a great deal more than Newmont was offering.

Previously the two sides had not been talking about the bid, but news overnight has suggested that the two sides could well be getting around to a meeting to discuss the bid and its values.

It is suggested that if the two groups sit down together then Newcrest will be given the opportunity to show its gold and copper mines and projects interests in Australia, Papua New Guinea and Canada.

Show me yours

That display of value would also see the Newcrest Mining interest in the Havieron gold-copper project Greatland Gold’s flagship project which is next to Newcrest’s major Telfer gold mine in the Paterson region of Western Australia.

Greatland Gold Investor Roadshows

Investors are getting excited about Greatland Gold’s potential, while the company is currently underway with a series of UK and European roadshows.

Could this be good news for the group

Newmont is the world’s largest gold company, so the combination of the two majors would create an absolute mining giant in Australia.

The thoughts are that perhaps Greatland Gold’s interest in Havieron is too close to Newcrest’s Telfer producer and not to be dismissed as an acquisition interest – such a purchase would be ‘pure petty cash’ to the giants but highly beneficial to Greatland.

On the other hand, Greatland Gold could perhaps be given the opportunity to purchase out Newcrest’s 70% stake in the Haveiron joint venture.

Either way shareholders could be the winners

Private investors now seem to be thinking that either way Greatland Gold shareholders could be on the winning side.

Greatland Gold, which has a proven track record of discovery and exploration success has a number of exploration projects across Western Australia, is currently valued at around £372m, with its shares trading at 7.20p.

Why companies left AIM in February 2023

There were four companies that left AIM during February with only one new admission to replace them. Two of the companies were taken over, while one was in administration and the other left to conserve cash.
13 February 2023
Morses Club
Credit provider Morses Club cancelled its AIM quotation because it needs to save cash to contribute to the compensation fund that is part of the scheme to keep the company going. Shareholders owning 75.2% of the shares voted were in favour of the cancelation – a minimum of 75% was required. The final share price was 0.21p.
The company ran into trouble with the ...

Dekel Agri-Vision volumes could improve in March

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Cote d’Ivoire-based Dekel Agri-Vision (LON: DKL) increased palm oil production in February. The AIM-quoted company also had good conversion rates, while the palm oil price remains strong.

February volumes are still low in comparison with last year, but they should continue to build up in March and could be higher than the same month in 2022. The high season did not start until late February this year. The extraction rate was 23.3% – a record for February.

There was 9,418/tonnes of fruit processed, which was down by 31%, while crude palm oil production was 28% lower at 2,198 tonnes with 2,102 tonnes sold during the month. Palm kernel oil production halved to 131 tonnes, and none was sold during February.  

The current crude palm oil price is €984/tonne, compared with forecast assumptions of €900/tonne. Palm kernel oil prices are currently around €1,025/tonne.

Dekel Agri-Vision is actively purchasing raw cashew nuts and quarterly statistics will be published later in March.

Non-exec director Aristide Achy Brou has taken his pay in shares. He was issued 612,554 shares, taking his stake to 4.27%.

The share price has been declining all year and has reached 2.05p. That is around five times prospective earnings, with potential for that fall to three in 2024. Net debt is reducing and it is expected to be €23.9m at the end of 2023.  

Further progress at MTI Wireless

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MTI Wireless Edge (LON: MWE) grew revenues of each of its three divisions and two of them made a higher profit contribution. An initial contribution from last year’s acquisition, offset the loss of Russian distribution business.

In 2022, group revenues improved from $43.2m to $46.3m, while underlying pre-tax profit rose from $4.04m to $4.32m. The total dividend is 3 cents a share. Net cash was $8.14m at the end of the year. That cash pile will grow unless more acquisitions are made.

The distribution and professional consulting division has become the largest profit contributor. Recent acquisition, communication and monitoring systems developer PSK WIND Technologies won a large order during the year and there are other potential contracts on the horizon. International spending on defence is increasing and that should boost this part of the company.

The profitability of the Antennas division is recovering after a first quarter loss. Sales of 5G antennas are building up and there was a boost from an upturn in demand for older technology.

The odd one out is Mottech, the water distribution and irrigation technology business. Revenues increased but gross margins and profit fell. Price increases have been made and the full benefit will come through in 2023.

The share price has been drifting lower since last summer. It recovered by 3.5p to 52p. A pre-tax profit of $4.79m is forecast for 2023, which would put the shares on 15 times prospective earnings.