Challenger Energy Group Investor Presentation July 2023

Challenger Energy Group presents at the UK Investor Magazine Virtual Investor Conference July 2023.

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Challenger Energy is a Caribbean and Americas focused oil and gas company, with a range of onshore and offshore oil and gas assets in the region. The Company’s primary focus is on its Uruguay exploration acreage and its Trinidad & Tobago production business

Vanquis Banking slumps on loss

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Vanquis Banking Group (LON: VANQ) has been hit by higher costs and a reduced interest rate margin. The shares are the largest fallers on the Main Market with a decline of 32.9% to 121.7p.

Vanquis Banking reported an underlying loss of £5.5m in the first half, compared with a profit of £54.3m, according to Shore Capital. The net interest margin fell from 21% to 18%, while the impairment charge increased from £38.5m to £85.6m. The interim dividend has been maintained at 5p/share.

Net receivables increased by 11% over the six-month period and are 26% higher than one year ago. The quality of the loan book appears to be improving and management is likely to be cautious due to the economic uncertainty, which will slow the rate of growth.

Shore Capital has put its forecasts under review, but it expects to cut its 2023 pre-tax profit forecast from £80.8m to £45m, and Peel Hunt is yet to update its estimates.

The estimated asset value of Vanquis Banking is around 179p, so the shares are trading at a near-one-third discount to this. The bank is in a transitional phase and is yet to see the benefit of the move to being a mid-cost credit provider.

Grit Group Investor Presentation July 2023

Grit Group Presents at the UK Investor Magazine Virtual Investor Conference July 2023.

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Grit is a leading, London-listed pan-African impact real estate investor and solutions provider. We invest in and actively manage a diverse portfolio of assets underpinned by mainly US dollar and Euro denominated long-term lease with high-quality multi-national tenants.

We leverage our deep African real estate insights and in-country expertise to offer unique real estate solutions in property development, asset and property management as well as selected co-investment opportunities for qualifying counterparties. Through our family of partnerships, we find opportunities to drive positive social and environmental change that transcend buildings to the benefit all current stakeholders and generations to come.

AIM movers: AFC Energy generator revenues and WH Ireland secures rescue funds

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AFC Energy (LON: AFC) is teaming up with Speedy Hire in a 50/50 joint venture to supply hydrogen fuelled generators to the UK construction and temporary power markets. There will be an initial order worth £2m, but this should increase as rental demand builds up. AFC Energy will also receive fees based on rental income. The share price is 20.6% higher at 17.71p.

Barclays has agreed to renew the existing bank facilities of Tekmar Group (LON: TGP). The trade loan facility of up to £4m is extended until 15 June 2024.  The CBILS term loan has been extended until 31 October 2024. Trading is in line with expectations. The share price improved 17.1% to 12p.

Europa Oil & Gas (LON: EOG) has assumed operatorship of licence PEDL343, which includes the Cloughton gas discovery. Former operator Egdon Resources still owns 40%, as does Europa Oil & Gas, with Petrichor holding the other 20%. A location for an appraisal well has been identified. The share price rose 7.41% to 1.45p.

Oracle Power (LON: ORCP) has published its second quarter update. A surface level survey has been completed on the green hydrogen project site in Sindh. The completed technical and commercial feasibility study for green hydrogen and green ammonia should be received from thyssenkrupp in the near future. The share price increased 5% to 0.105p.

WH Ireland (LON: WHI) has raised £5m at 3p/share and this has knocked two-thirds off the share price to 7.5p. The broker is loss making and it does not believe that trading is going to improve this year. WH Ireland did not have the required regulatory capital and the FCA may have required a solvent wind down of the business if cash were not raised. This is why the placing discount was so high. There are plans to reduce overheads by up to £4m. Management will take some of their salary in shares. This should help to make the company more financially stable. Asset sales are a possibility.

Investment company Limitless Earth (LON: LME) reported a full year ash outflow of £463,000 and NAV fell to £1.09m at the end of January 2023. There are three investments in the portfolio. There is £84,000 in the bank and further stake sales will be required for reinvestment as well as to fund the company.  The share price has fallen by one-fifth to 4p, which values the company at £3.3m.

Garnet Commerce is exercising its option to increase its stake in batteries producer Enerox Holdings from 50% to 60% for $3.25m. Bushveld Minerals (LON: BMN) owns a subsidiary with a 25% interest in Enerox and the rights of first refusal to supply electrolyte to Enerox for an initial six-month period. Standard list company Mustang Energy was planning to acquire Enerox, but this appears unlikely to go ahead. The share price declined 19.8% to 2.55p.

YouGov (LON: YOU) says clients are taking longer to make decisions and full year revenues will be at the lower end of expectations. Peel Hunt has trimmed its revenues forecast by 2% to £258m, but it is maintaining its earnings estimate at 39p/share. Net cash is £106m, but thi is before the acquisition of the GFK consumer panel business. New chief executive Steve Hatch will join the board on 1 August. The share price dipped 9.35% to 979p.

WH Ireland shares crash after heavily discounted placing and warnings of wind down

WH Ireland shares were in freefall on Friday after the broker announced financial difficulties and the results of a placing completed at an 86.67% discount to last night’s closing price.

WH Ireland shares were down 66% at the time of writing after warning their cash had fallen below levels required by the FCA and had to urgently raise funds to avoid collapse.

News of the placing was released alongside a trading statement outlining poor performance in the three-month period ended 30th June. WH Ireland recorded a pre-tax loss of £1.1m in the period.

The broker is suffering in the face of lower capital markets activity and sees the challenges continuing until later this year.

In a statement released to the market, WH Ireland outlined the reasons for the placing:

“The Directors consider that, in light of the financial position of the Company set out above and given the challenging current market conditions (as well as the macro-economic pressures which continue to impact investment activity both in the UK and globally, across all sectors in which the Group operates), it is necessary urgently to boost the Company’s capital position through the Placing.”

The situation at WH Ireland has become so severe their cash levels dropped below their regulatory capital requirements and they have drawn up plans for an orderly wind-down as required by the FCA to protect consumers. WH Ireland said they would transfer clients to new advisors in such an event.

The broker and wealth manager said they hoped a wind-down could be avoided and were considering steps to reduce headcount and senior staff will take pay cuts. The company said these measures combined with today’s capital raise should provide a stable base going forward.

Phillip Wale, CEO, commented:

“The proceeds of today’s Placing bolsters our regulatory capital and together with the cost reductions we are implementing, we believe provide a stable platform from which the Company can navigate these challenging markets. I am grateful for the support of our existing and new shareholders and believe we are in a stronger position to take advantage of better market conditions as and when they come.”

AFC Energy and Speedy Hire – agreement to rollout hydrogen generators through equipment hire sites

The leading provider of hydrogen powered generator technologies AFC Energy (LON:AFC) has today announced a very interesting Joint Venture with the UK’s leading tools and equipment hire services company Speedy Hire (LON:SDY).

AFC Energy, which gained a £4.8m UK Government Grant a few days ago, provides hydrogen energy solutions, to provide clean electricity for on and off grid power applications.

Its fuel cell technology is now deployable as electric vehicle chargers, off-grid decentralised power systems for construction and temporary power with emerging opportunities across maritime, data centres and rail as part of a portfolio approach to the decarbonisation of society’s growing electrification needs.

Operating from some 180 fixed sites and selected B&Q stores across the UK and Ireland together with a number of on-site facilities at client locations, Speedy Hire provides tools and equipment hire services to a wide range of customers in the construction, infrastructure, industrial, and support services markets, as well as to local trade, and retail.

The rollout of AFC hydrogen fuelled generators into the UK construction and temporary power markets, will be speeded by the 50/50 JV being started shortly with an initial purchase of 30kW H-Power Generators for a consideration of some £2m in aggregate.

The first of these systems are expected to be available for Speedy’s customers later this year.

Beyond this initial commitment, Speedy and AFC plan to increase orders for H-Power Generators in-line with the expected growing demand for zero emission power across the UK construction and temporary power market.

Adam Bond, Chief Executive, AFC Energy, said: 

“The pressure to deliver zero emission power on construction sites here in the UK and overseas has seen strong growth in demand for AFC Energy’s H-Power Generators. 

Our collaboration with Speedy builds on the successful H-Power Tower launch last year and subsequent field-based deployments, many of whom are customers of Speedy, making our proposed collaboration all the more relevant.” 

Broker’s Opinion – indications of a material upside to the share price

Ahead of the £116m capitalised group announcing its Interim results shortly, analyst Robin Byde at Zeus Capital, considers that the decarbonisation of major projects in the UK is gathering pace and he believes that this is a major step forward for commercialisation at AFC, addressing a multi-billion-pound market.

He notes that he has a discounted cashflow based valuation of 100p on the AFC shares, giving a massive upside for the share price which opened 12.5% better at 16.5p this morning.

Natwest shares rise as profit soars but net interest margin forecast lowered

Natwest has been in the news for all the wrong reasons over the past two weeks and they could have done without additional media scrutiny of their Q2 results.

That said, Natwest investors will be reasonably happy with Natwest’s first-half performance. Operating profit before tax surged to £3.6bn, up from £2.6bn in the same period a year ago, and beat analyst estimates.

Natwest enjoyed the higher interest rate environment and net interest margin – a key profitability metric – rose to 3.20% in H1 2023 compared with 2.58% a year ago.

However, Natwest said they now expect full-year net interest margin to be less than 3.20% at 3.15%, assuming the Bank of England base rate stays at 5.5% throughout the rest of the year. A similar step was taken by Barclays yesterday.

Natwest recorded a net impairment charge of £223m in the last quarter. Natwest said arrears are low and defaults are stable but were taking the measures due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainties. UK banks are facing the difficult task of modelling default rates in an increasingly uncertain environment which so far hasn’t shown any great signs of stress.

Natwest shares were 1.7% higher at the time of writing.

Matt Britzman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, provided context to today’s results and highlights Natwest’s result are playing second fiddle to the Farage saga.

“It’s been a week to forget at NatWest as it’s had to lose two of its top execs because of the Nigel Farage account closure debacle. Today’s results probably don’t do the group any favours either, despite a slight beat on the bottom line. We know markets are laser-focused on net interest margin and at 3.13% for the second quarter that was below expectations, leading to a miss on net interest income,” Britzman said.

“But perhaps more importantly, full-year guidance has been dragged lower reflecting the ongoing deposit shift to accounts that offer better rates as consumers do all they can to make cash savings go further. NatWest should be a little more robust than peers in this regard, owing to the fact more of its deposits are held by small and medium-sized businesses which tend to keep more cash current accounts that are more profitable for banks.”

FTSE 100 helped higher by strong earnings, Centrica soars

UK stocks took rates hikes by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in their stride on Thursday as the FTSE 100 gained helped higher by upbeat earnings.

Thursday was a busy day for FTSE 100 earnings updates as companies including Shell, Barclays, Centrica, St James’s Place and BT issued updates.

Although there were disappointing results from Barclays, St James’s Place and to some extent Shell, Centrica, Informa, Fraser’s Group and Informa results helped drive the index higher.

The FTSE 100 was 0.25% higher at the time of writing.

St James’s Place was the FTSE 100 biggest loser after the wealth manager said new business was falling and funds under management also declined. St James’s Place shares were down 15% at the time of writing.

Centrica shares were 7% to the good at the other end of the leaderboard after releasing bumper profits for the first half of 2023. Centrica’s Adjusted operating profit rose by £2.1bn from £1.3bn in 2022 due to higher energy prices and increased trading activity.

“British Gas owner Centrica won’t be winning a popularity contest with the public anytime soon, but shareholders may not be too bothered,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“The massive increase in first-half profit reflects the impact on its retail energy-facing business of a lifting of the price cap but the contribution made by its energy marketing and trading division, helped by the big volatility in commodity prices, should not be ignored.

“The strengths of Centrica’s integrated model have really come to the fore in recent times and after several lean years, the company is able to reward investors handsomely – lifting its dividend substantially and extending a share buyback.”

Barclays

Having recovered from the worst levels of the session, Barclays were down 3.5% on the back of disappointing investment banking activity in the last quarter. A downgrade to their net interest margin didn’t help matters and Barclay’s key measure of profitability now looks to have peaked.

“The market does not like the latest round of results from UK banks. Investors gave the thumbs down to Lloyds’ results yesterday and now they are doing the same to Barclays, with its shares down more than 6% in early trading,” Russ Mould said.

“Even though Barclays slightly beat analyst consensus profit forecasts and announced a bigger than expected share buyback of £750 million (consensus: £575 million), there were two points in the results that didn’t go down well.

“First, it has downgraded guidance for UK net interest margins to less than 320 basis points compared to previous guidance of more than 320 basis points. Second, it suffered from a drop in dealmaking for its investment banking arm.”

Shell shares were 1.5% lower after reporting falling adjusted earnings amid lower oil prices and gas volumes.

Franchise Brands decides to retain consumer franchise brands

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AIM-quoted Franchise Brands (LON: FRAN) combined organic growth and a ten-week contribution from Pirtek, which was acquired during the first half, to grow interim revenues 57% to £69.8m. The consumer business is no longer being marketed for sale.

Franchise Brands had intended to sell the consumer franchise brands, but it is no longer actively marketing the businesses. Offers did not meet expectations. These operations were previously disclosed as discontinued in the 2022 results but are not in the interims.

In the six months to June 2023, underlying pre-tax profit rose 45% to £8.6m, although a higher tax charge and the additional shares in issue to fund the Pirtek acquisition meant that earnings were 4% ahead at 4.24p/share. The interim dividend is 11% ahead at 1p/share. Net debt was £79.1m at the end of June 2023.

The drainage businesses Metro Rod and Metro Plumb businesses grew system sales by 24% to £35.3m. The kitchen services business Filta grew system sales by 16% even though the price of waste oil fell.

Pirtek Europe provides on-site hydraulic hose replacement and other services through 217 service centres and 843 mobile service vans. There are franchisees in eight countries and the company has the right to enter eight other European countries. There is still a long way to go with integrating the business so that it shares resources with other parts of the group.

Stifel forecasts a jump in full year pre-tax profit from £12.8m to £20.5m, while earnings would be 6% higher at 8.9p/share. The full benefits of Pirtek will come through in 2024.

The share price dipped 0.5p to 147.5p, which is down one-quarter on the start of the year. The large share issue to fund the Pirtek acquisition has held up the share price, but it should recover as the benefits of the acquisition show through.

While challenges remain, Vietnam’s PDP8 presents huge future opportunities

Shortly after the Vietnamese government approved the long-awaited Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) in mid-May, northern Vietnam endured a severe energy shortage that hobbled manufacturing and left residents struggling to combat extreme heat.

A perfect storm of record electricity consumption due to high temperatures combined with drought-stricken hydropower reservoirs running out of water created a two-week crisis for the region.

This highlighted the critical importance of future power supply and transmission development laid out in the plan, especially as electricity demand is expected to grow by roughly 9% annually for the rest of the decade.

The scale of the transition needed to meet the goals of PDP8 through 2030 and Vietnam’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050 means there are enormous opportunities in the energy sector.

However, there is no denying that serious obstacles need to be addressed.

PDP8 is expected to require US$135 billion to implement, while the World Bank estimates that  US$368 billion is needed to move toward a net-zero economy. Vietnam cannot provide this funding on its own, meaning financing is a top concern.

In a report titled ‘The Bankability of Renewable Energy Projects Upon PDP8,’ analysts from FiinRatings and Indochine Counsel wrote: “Vietnam must diversify funding sources beyond the banking credit to fulfill the objectives under PDP8. Corporate bonds and private credit investments from non-bank investors from domestic and international markets should be the primary funding source for this ambitious plan.”

And while PDP8 presents ambitious goals for renewable energy and LNG expansion, detailed policies still need to be released in order for these sectors to move forward.

Offshore wind, for example, which the power plan envisions as reaching 7 gigawatts in capacity by 2030 (up from zero), requires marine spatial planning regulations. In a concerning development, the Danish wind giant Orsted recently paused its market development activities in Vietnam.

Detailed rules regarding direct purchase power agreements (DPAA) and carbon certification are also needed and will help spur further renewable energy development.

While these obstacles cannot be ignored, according to Vietnam Holding’s Investment Manager, there will be huge opportunities for those involved in expected energy growth areas.

Transmission line constructors and consultants stand to benefit, as US$1.4 billion in transmission line investment is needed each year through 2030. The critical importance of this work was evident in the recent electricity shortage in northern provinces, as renewable energy from solar- and wind-rich provinces in the south couldn’t be moved to where it was needed.

EVN is currently responsible for this investment, but FiinRatings and Indochine Counsel argue they will need help.

“To attract private investment into grid transmission under PDP8, regulations need to specify forms of participation, compensation mechanism, and dispute resolution,” the two research firms note.

Renewable and hydropower developers are also in a good position, though it remains to be seen what the future feed-in tariff price will be for new wind and solar projects.

The implementation of a DPPA, meanwhile, would greatly benefit solar panel developers, as this would allow solar plant operators to sell energy directly to private businesses.

Finally, PDP8’s ambitious goal for LNG means gas import facilities will have to be built from scratch, offering huge financial potential for those in the oil and gas sectors. In fact, Vietnam received its first LNG shipment on July 10 at PV Gas’ new facility in Ba Ria-Vung Tau Province.

This could herald the start of an LNG boom for the country, though PV Gas is currently the only licensed LNG importer in Vietnam.

Vietnam Holding is an investor in PV Technical Services (PVS) which, like PV Gas, is part of PetroVietnam. PVS is positioned to benefit from the upcoming energy transition and will play an important role in offshore wind development once that begins.

PetroVietnam, for its part, recently took control of two gas power projects, O Mon III and O Mon IV in Can Tho, from EVN. These plants, which are expected to begin generating power in late 2026, are a key part of PDP8’s outlined gas capacity.

As the bankability report authors note, these projects are at the forefront of Vietnam’s LNG future, and hard work remains.

“For LNG power projects to succeed, pioneer developers will need heavy guidance and support from the authorities, especially concerning on-take and off-take,” FiinRatings and Indochine Counsel wrote.

Another positive step occurred on July 14, when Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh authorized the creation of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Secretariat. The body is headed by the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment and is responsible for laying the groundwork to implement the US$15.5 billion JETP agreement signed between Vietnam and the International Partners Group in December. 

While the challenges facing Vietnam’s energy transition are daunting, policies like PDP8 and the JETP show that the country’s leaders understand them and recognize the importance of transforming where power comes from.

Writing credit Michael Tatarski