Dignity bid approach

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Funeral director Dignity (LON: DTY) has rejected bid offers from a consortium involving major shareholder Phoenix Asset Management, but the latest offer could be acceptable.

The initial offer of 475p a share in cash was rejected, and this was followed by offers of 500p a share and 510p a share.

These were all rejected and a revised proposal of 525p a share in cash has been made for fully listed Dignity, which could be accepted by the board. There could be an alternative offer that includes shares in the unquoted bid vehicle or in Guernsey-based, Specialist Fund Segment-listed Castelnau Group Ltd (LON: CGL), where the share price has fallen by one-third to 69p over the past year. The October 2021 issue price was 100p. Phoenix Asset Management is the manager of Castelnau, which has investments in Aquis-quoted Silverwood Brands (LON: SLWD), Hornby (LON: HRN) and Stanley Gibbons.

The Dignity share price jumped 109.5p to 535p. This is the highest the share price has been since April 2022. Eighteen months ago the share price was above 900p.

Phoenix Asset Management owns 29.7% of Dignity. The bid vehicle is Yellow (SPC) Bidco Ltd, which is a joint venture between Castelnau, which is managed by former Dignity chief executive Gary Channon, and company established by Sir Peter Wood. Due diligence is ongoing.

Ryanair upgrades expectations

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Dublin-based airline operator Ryanair Holdings (RYAI) has upgraded 2022-23 profit guidance. It still expects 168 million passengers up until March 2023.

There was strong travel demand over the Christmas/ New Year holiday season, and this pushed up prices. There was no setback relating to Covid in the latest quarter.

There were 11.5 million passengers, up from 9.5 million in the previous third quarter. The load factor improved from 81% to 92%. The third quarter profit after tax is expected to be €200m.

Even so, Ryanair expects the fourth quarter to be loss-making because Easter is not included this year. There has also been a softening in UK and Irish traffic and pricing.

Profit after tax guidance has been raised from the previous range of €1bn to €1.2bn to €1.325bn to €1.425bn.

The third quarter figures will be published on 30 January.

The share price rose by 2.17% to €12.8225. The share price has fallen by 17% over the past year.

FTSE 100 gains for second day in broad rally, commodity stocks fall

The defensive nature of the FTSE 100 was evident on Wednesday as the index gained for a second straight day, despite volatility in US markets.

Most FTSE 100 constituents were positive at the time of writing with the index gaining 0.5% to 7,592.

“The FTSE 100 shrugged off a sell-off in US tech stocks overnight to trade a smidge higher on Wednesday morning in the latest reminder of the big differences between the UK’s flagship index and its counterparts across the Atlantic,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“The resilience of the FTSE 100 was impressive given it was able to withstand material falls for index heavyweights BP and Shell on lower oil prices. Investors are increasingly concerned about the current Covid situation in China where a relaxation of restrictions is leading to a surge in cases.”

“Thanks to less effective vaccines and a population with much less natural immunity, China is some way behind the West in its recovery from the pandemic and this has implications for global growth and global supply chains.”

Investor Repositioning

The specific concerns around China were evident in the FTSE 100’s miners on Wednesday with Anglo America, Rio Tinto, Antofagasta and Glencore all trading negatively.

It is notable for the commodity-dominated FTSE 100 index to rise when most of the commodity shares were down on the day.

This suggests some repositioning from the commodity sector to more UK-focused domestic stocks. The index was supported by mining companies late last year as investors bought into the sector ahead of a Chinese reopening.

Now China that has eased most COVID restrictions, this trade is being faded and investors are seeking out value in consumer companies and UK-focused equities.

Ocado was the top gainer, up 8%, while Sainsburys and B&M European Value were both up over 5%.

Construction companies and the housebuilders were also gaining bargain hunter interest despite a downbeat property outlook for 2023.

HeiQ forecasts slashed

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Antimicrobial and textile odour control materials developer HeiQ (LON: HEIQ) says trading conditions have worsened because of weak consumer spending. The share price has more than halved to 26p.

The market deteriorated late in 2022. There are also high levels of inventory in the market, which has hit reorder levels. HeiQ also points out that customers are hesitant to invest in product innovation. Management does not believe it has lost customers, but the revenues are delayed.

Cenkos has reduced its forecast revenues for 2022 and 2023. This means that HeiQ will make a loss in 2022. In 2023, forecast net income has been slashed from $4.25m to $115,000. Cash of $7.19m is forecast for the end of 2023.

HeiQ is acquiring Tarn-Pure for £850,000 in cash and shares. Tarn-Pure has IP relating to regulatory registrations to sell elemental copper and elemental silver for use in disinfecting hygiene applications, where HeiQ already has sales. Tarn-Pure has annual revenues of $400,000 generated from royalty income.

Prior to Christmas, HeiQ increased its stake in probiotics ingredients business HeiQ Chrisal from 51% to 71%. The additional shareholding cost €2.9m in shares at 75.1p each.

AIM movers: Corcel farm-out and United Oil & Gas disappointment

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Corcel (LON: CRCL) entered a farm-out and joint venture agreement with Riversgold Ltd for the rare earths project at Mt Weld in Australia. Corcel will receive A$30,000 in cash and Riversgold will earn 50% of the project by spending A$500,000 over 12 months. If Corcel agrees, Riversgold can earn a further 20% stake by spending an additional A$1m. The share price improved by 14.9% to 0.27p.

Smart meter technology developer CyanConnode (LON: CYAN) has received an order for 983,525 Omnimesh modules and related hardware, plus a service and maintenance contract to Montecarlo. They will be installed in Madhya Pradesh, India. Supply will commence in the first quarter. The order book in India is more than 3.6 million modules. The share price is 12.3% higher at 16p.

hVIVO (LON: HVO) has secured a £5.2m contract with an Asia Pacific-based biotech company to test a vaccine in a Phase IIa study, which will commence in the second half of 2023. This uses the company’s respiratory syncytial virus human challenge study. This means that 95% of 2023 forecast revenues of £54m are already contracted. The share price recovered by 9.83% to 12.85p.

Embedded computer products developer Concurrent Technologies (LON: CNC) says 2022 revenues will be 10% ahead of expectations, although pre-tax profit is maintained at around £100,000. Order intake was more than one-quarter ahead at £31m. Double shifts have commenced at the company’s factory. Pre-tax profit is expected to recover to £2.7m in 2023. The share price rose 6.94% to 77p.

United Oil & Gas (LON: UOG) says that the ASW-1X exploration well in Egypt did not discover any hydrocarbons. The drilling rig will be moved to the ASH-8 development well. This is also on the Abu Sennan licence where United Oil & Gas has a 22% non-operating interest. The share price slumped by 25.5% to 0.95p.

New natural resources legislation in Ukraine could adversely affect Enwell Energy (LON: ENW). Licences can be suspended or revoked if the holders are subject to sanctions. A major shareholder in Enwell Energy has sanctions applied to him. The share price slumped by 20.8% to 12.85p.

Pathfinder Minerals (LON: PFP) says the option agreement for the sale of IM Minerals to Acumen Advisory has been extended to 31 January. Yesterday, Pathfinder Minerals raised £500,000 at 0.5p a share. The share price is 21.1% lower at 0.375p.

14 Shares to Watch in 2023 with Alan Green

Alan Green joins the Podcast for a run down of his shares to watch in 2023.

We start with a look at Bidstack and the disappointing start to the year before we jump into Alan’s 14 stocks to watch in 2023.

Companies included:

  • Shell (LON:SHEL)
  • AstraZeneca (LON:AZN)
  • Power Metal Resources (LON:POW)
  • Tekcapital (LON:TEK)
  • Cadence Minerals (LON:KDNC)
  • ECR Minerals (LON:ECR)
  • Blencowe Resources (LON:BRES)
  • First Class Metals (LON:FCM)
  • GreenX Metal (LON:GRX)
  • Kavango (LON:KAV)
  • More Acquisitions (LON:TMOR)
  • China Nonferrous Gold (LON:CNG)
  • Harland & Wolff (LON:HARL)
  • Technology Minerals (LON:TM1)

We wish our listeners a prosperous new year.

FTSE 100 starts 2023 on the front foot

The FTSE 100 started 2023 with a bang as the index rose above 7,600 in early trade, before falling back as the session progressed.

London-listed shares shrugged off pessimistic IMF comments on the health of the global economy suggesting most major economies could face a slowdown in the coming 12 months.

“UK shares kicked off the New Year with a bang despite gloomy predictions from the head of the IMF that one third of the global economy will be hit by recession this year,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Kristalina Georgieva told CBS that the US, EU and China are all slowing simultaneously. This is unpleasant to hear but isn’t a shock to markets given the multitude of headwinds that gathered pace last year, namely high inflation and rising interest rates and the negative impact they have on business and consumer spending.”

The FTSE 100 was up 1.3% at 7,548 at the time of writing on Tuesday with 88 of the FTSE’s 100 constituents gaining.

Ocado had a choppy finish to 2022 and was again the top riser on Tuesday as the retail technology company bounced off a support level building at 620p.

The FTSE 100’s commodity companies helped lift the index as miners and oil companies rallied. Banks were also strong performers ahead of year that promises a period of higher rates.

“Mining and banks were also in demand on the UK stock market, suggesting that investors were split into two camps – one happy to take on additional risks and buy commodity producers in the belief that any global economic downturn will only be short lived, and the other opting for a more cautious approach. Banks have perked up on the stock market in recent months as investors bet that they will benefit from interest rates staying higher for longer,” Russ Mould said.

Rolls Royce was 5% higher at 97p after analysts at Jefferies raised the stock to a buy with a 125p price target.

AIM movers: GENinCode gains US lab approval and Bidstack dispute

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Heart health diagnostics firm GENinCode (LON: GENI) has received California state licensing approval and CLIA certification for its laboratory in Irvine, California. That sparked a 135.5% leap in the share price to 18.25p. That is the highest the share price has been since June and stops the downward trend since flotation in 2021. The certification will allow processing of LipidinCode, which is set to be launched in the US first, and CardioinCode tests. There are plans to obtain FDA approval for CardioinCode. There should be enough cash in the bank to last until the end of 2023.

Oil and gas company Challenger Energy (LON: CEG) says Uruguay has awarded two more offshore blocks, including one to a consortium including Shell, which is adjacent to Challenger Energy’s AREA OFF-1 block. A farm-in partner will be sought and that will enable increased exploration spending.  The shares are 10.8% ahead at 0.1025p.

In-video game advertising technology company Bidstack (LON: BIDS) says that it has invoiced Azerion Technology, but it has received a termination notice from the company. Bidstack says that there is no entitlement to end the agreement and it is claiming damages. Azerion Technology has been in dispute since October and this deal was underpinning forecasts. The share price slumped 27% to 2.025p.

Helium One Global (LON: HE1) will not be able to procure the Exalo drilling rig as it had expected because the current user has taken up a 12-month option on its operation. This will delay exploration drilling, which was due to start in the first quarter of 2023. At the end of last year, Helium One Global raised £9.9m at 5p a share to finance a single exploration well in the Tai prospect in the Rukwa Basin, Tanzania, which would help to prove up a working helium system. There are alternative rigs that could be secured, but this will mean drilling starting later in the year. The share price declined by 23.2% to 5.45p.

DeepMatter (LON: DMTR) has fallen 7.69% to 0.03p ahead of the cancellation of its AIM quotation on 5 January.

Optamer binders developer Aptamer Group (LON: APTA) has warned that delays in signing contracts mean that full year revenues will be below expectations. Interim revenues are likely to fall from £1.4m to £1m and Liberum has cut its full year forecast from £8m to £6m, which is still a 50% increase on last year. Net cash of around £2.2m is forecast for the end of June 2023, so Aptamer is financially secure. The share price fell by 6.86% to 47.5p. Trading in Allergy Therapeutics (LON: AGY), Kazera Global (LON: KZG), Star Phoenix (LON: STA), URU Metals (LON: URU), Ince Group (LON: INCE), Inspirit Energy (LON: INSP) and Goldplat (LON: GDP) has been

Cadence Minerals achieves major milestone at Brazilian iron ore project

Cadence Minerals have announced the completion of the pre-feasibility study (PFS) at their flagship Amapa Iron ore project in Brazil. The completion of the PFS marks a major milestone in the journey towards the production of high-grade iron ore at the project which now has a $949m NPV.

The PFS included the Maiden Ore Reserve of 195.8mt at 39.34% Fe and an IRR of 35%. The Amapa project is now expected to produce 5.28 million dry metric tonnes of iron ore per annum.

The PFS forecasted Free on Board (FOB) cash cost of $35.53/dmt at the port of Santana and Cost and Freight (CFR) cash costs $64.23/dmt in China. Iron Ore at 62% Fe is currently trading above $111 in China having touched highs in excess of $230 in 2021.

Cadence Minerals have a 30% stake in the Amapa project.

Having achieved a favourable PFS, DEV Mineração S/A – the owner and operator of the Amapa iron ore project – will now push on with advancing operations at Amapa and pursue mine life expansion at adjacent exploration targets. This will open the door to a Feasibility study and production at the project.

Source: Cadence Minerals

Amapa benefits from excellent infrastructure which will help manage initial capital expenditure currently forecast to be $399m. There are existing facilities including a processing plant, railway and port access set for rehabilitation ready for production at the project.

“The Project benefits from integrated infrastructure under the owner’s control, a well-established processing route, low capital intensity and a quality product with an international reputation,” said Cadence Minerals CEO, Kiran Morzaria.

“Along with a skilled workforce, proximity to operational infrastructure and the potential to increase the mineral resource means that Amapá remains an incredibly attractive investment opportunity.”

Cadence Minerals is a mining and minerals investment company with a diverse portfolio of assets that spans critical minerals and base metals.

Cadence has a number of lithium projects heading towards liquidity events in 2023.

Bidstack shares have disastrous start to new year

Bidstack shares have had a disastrous start to the new year after the in-game advertising technology company revealed a souring relationship with their partner, Azerion.

A deal with Azerion struck in 2021 was supposed to deliver $30m in sales from Bidstack’s in-game advertising inventory over a 2-year period.

However, Bidstack have today announced Azerion have withheld payments Bidstack feel are due to them, and Azerion are seeking to terminate the agreement. Concerns about the health of the relationship arose in October when Bidstack said they received a non-disclosed email from Azerion but there was ‘no litigation with Azerion’.

Today, Bidstack said they are now pursuing legal action to recover sums they feel are owed to them as part of the agreement.

Bidstack had called the ‘landmark’ commercial Azerion deal ‘ground-breaking’ in their 2021 full year results and just eight months later the agreement lays in tatters, along with the Bidstack share price.

Bidstack shares were down 28% to 1.98p at the time of writing and had a market cap of just £25m – considerably less than the cash it has raised from investors to fund the development of their in-game advertising platform.

The company conducted their latest raise in October, securing £10m.

Bidstack have failed to capitalise on their first mover advantages in the in-game advertising space with multiple advertising agencies and platforms now getting in on the action.

Bidstack recorded just £2m revenue in the first half of 2022.