5 Things Moving Markets 16th November

Two killed by missile in Poland

Two people have been killed by a missile landing in Poland. Investigations are ongoing and we have no confirmation of who fired the missile, but clearly an attack on a NATO member risks an escalation. Equities futures fell overnight, but have since recovered some losses.

Oil rises after drone explosion

An exploding drone has hit an oil tanker off the coast of Oman and sent Brent Crude and WTI prices higher as a result. BP and Shell shares were both up over 1%. It is not yet clear who was behind the drone, or whether it was an intentional attack.

UK inflation hits 11.1%

UK inflation hit the highest level since 1981 last month with prices rising 11.1%. The pressure on UK households was felt in the FTSE 100’s consumer facing stocks with Next, Kingfisher and JD Sports all falling on the day.

Pound steady ahead of Autumn Statement

Jeremy Hunt is poised to deliver his Autumn Statement tomorrow and rumour are swirling of the specific announcements. However, not matter the individual policies, the overarching theme will be higher taxes and lower spending – the polar opposite of September’s doomed mini-budget.

Sage shares top FTSE 100

Sage was the FTSE 100’s top riser in early trade on Wednesday after their Sage Business Cloud helped drive a 9% increase in organic revenue growth. Sage shares were 5% higher at the time of writing.

New Aquis admission: Looking Glass Labs

Non-fungible token platform developer Looking Glass Labs Ltd (LON: NFTX) has been introduced to Aquis. This is not a time when digital assets are in favour with investors. The previous excitement has evaporated and fellow Aquis-quoted company NFT Investments (LON: NFT) trading at well below its last stated NAV, while the demise of FTX has not helped the cryptocurrency market.
Looking Glass Labs Ltd (www.lgl.io/investors) joined the Access segment of Aquis on 14 November with Novum Securities acting as corporate adviser. The shares were already traded on the NEO Stock Exchange in Canada. The sh...

Adept Technology has fallen too far

Managed IT and networking services provider AdEPT Technology (LON: ADT) reported flat interim revenues and lower profit, but it is paying a 2.6p a share interim dividend. Short-term trading continues to be difficult, but AdEPT Technology’s strategy means that long-term it should prosper.
In the six months to September 2022, revenues dipped from £34.3m to £34.2m – 73% recurring. The mix is different, though. Managed services revenues grew, although the gross margin on these revenues fell from 50% to 48%. The fixed line business is down to 11% of revenues. There is an even split between governme...

Consider JLEN Environmental Assets for a FTSE 100 beating yield

The JLEN Environmental Assets Investment Trust invests in UK-based clean energy assets spanning solar, wind, hydro, bioenergy and anaerobic digestion.

The trust’s portfolio also includes sustainable infrastructure assets such as battery storage and refuelling stations.

The portfolio is comprised of 39 assets and generated 1,314 GWh in the year to 31st March. At the same time, rising electricity prices saw the trust’s NAV rise to 115.3p per share, compared to 92.2p in the year prior. JLEN’s NAV has since rose by 7.8p per share.

JLEN Dividend Yield

In addition to a sharp increase in the trust’s NAV in last FY, the managers saw it fit to increase the total 2022 dividend to 6.80p, up from 6.76p in 2021.

Again, this dividend has increased since the full year results with the trust declaring an interim dividend of 1.78p – an increase on track to meet their 7.14p dividend target for 2023 FY.

A 7.14p dividend would yield investors 5.6% with JLEN shares trading at 128p. This far exceeds the current FTSE 100 average 12-month historical yield of 3.8%.

One of JLEN’s core financial objectives for the trust is to provide ‘predictable income growth for shareholders’. This has been demonstrated by steady dividend increases since inception.

Although JLEN shifted from an ‘inflation-linked’ dividend policy to a ‘progressive’ policy, the trust still benefits from reliable inflation-linked cashflows that will support additional dividend increases in the future.

It must be noted, there is an element of uncertainty around windfall taxes on power generators and what this could mean for JLEN’s asset’s cash producing attributes. Chris Tanner, Co-Lead Investment Manager of JLEN, discussed these implications at the recent Investment Trust conference.

Hydropower, Green Hydrogen and the UK Grid with Triple Point Energy Transition

The UK Investor Magazine Podcast revisits Triple Point Energy Transition’s Q&A session at our Investment Trust conference.

Fund Manager Jonathan Hick summarises their holistic strategy for investing in the energy transition and takes questions from attendees.

Jonathan answers questions on the current state of the energy market, green hydrogen and how capacity of the UK grid is limiting renewable power opportunities.

Watch the full video presentation here.

Speedy Hire set for second half recovery

Speedy Hire (LON: SDY) interims were in line with expectations and price increases will help the second half performance. Investment in the hire fleet puts Speedy Hire in a good position as markets could become tougher.
Speedy Hire hires equipment to construction, infrastructure and industrial customers. The regional and local customer base is growing, and Speedy Hire is also tendering for large contracts.
In the six months to September 2022, revenues from continuing activities improved by 14% to £212.4m, but underlying pre-tax profit dipped from £14.6m to £14.1m. That was mainly due to higher...

5 Things Moving Markets 15th November

Higher wages lifts the pound

UK wages rose 5.7% in the year to September, sparking a rally in the pound. Higher wages could further stoke inflation and lead to additional rate hikes by the Bank of England. GBP/USD was 0.9% higher at 1.1862 at the time of writing.

US futures gain on Fed hopes

US futures extended gains on continued hopes the Federal Reserve could be about to slow the pace of their rate hikes. A weaker than expected US CPI read last week has raised the prospect of a Fed ‘pivot’ sooner rather than later.

Windfall tax on UK electricity generators

UK energy generators such as Centrica and SSE saw their shares jump on reports the UK government was planning a new windfall tax. Jeremy Hunt is expected to unveil a 40% windfall tax on generators this Thursday in his Autumn Statement.

China/US optimism lifts Chinese stocks

Chinese H-shares rose overnight on optimism China/US relations could be set to improve after leaders of both of countries met at the G20.

Vodafone shares sink

Vodafone shares sunk after the telecoms group posted tepid sales figures and warned costs would impact profits.

AIM movers: Made Tech contract gain and Baron Oil fundraising

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Digital services provider Made Tech Group (LON: MTEC) continues its recent share price recovery on the back of a £10m contract with the Home Office. There is a six-month extension that could be worth a further £2m. This is a renewal and extension of a previous contract that generated £6m. The share price improved 10.8% to 28.25p. Made Tech joined AIM in September 2021 at 122p a share.

Lebanese restaurant operator Comptoir Group (LON: COM) shares have reacted to last Friday’s appointment of Nick Ayerst as chief executive. He previously ran healthy food chain Leon. The share price rose 13.9% to 5.725p.

Parcel delivery company DX (LON: DX.) reported strong figures and the departure of executive chairman Ron Series. Full year revenues were 12% ahead at £428.2m, while pre-tax profit jumped from £12.2m to £20.6m. finnCap has upgraded its 2022-23 pre-tax profit forecast from £25m to £25.4m. The share price recovered by 10% to 27.5p, but it is still below its suspension price.

Musical instruments retailer Gear4Music (LON: G4M) reported interims in line with the AGM trading update. Gear4Music declined from a profit to a £1m loss. Revenues were 2% ahead thanks to a recovery in European sales. Website users were lower, but average order value rose 19% to £151. A full year pre-tax profit of £1.1m is forecast. The share price improved by 5.73% to 101.5p.

Baron Oil (LON: BOIL) has launched a £5m placing and subscription at 0.12p a share. Up to £1m more could be raised through a REX retail offer to private investors. Baron Oil already has net cash of £1.6m. There will be around £1.5m invested in the Chuditch PSC, offshore Timor-Leste, plus a further £750,000 for the Chuditch bank guarantee. The rest will go on other interests and to cover overheads. The share price has fallen 22.1% to the offer price of 0.12p.

Quantum Blockchain Technologies (LON: QBT) is making progress in creating cheaper, faster and more energy efficient Bitcoin miners. Preliminary results show a 30% improvement over commercially available miners. The company is considering a third-party licencing strategy. The share price slipped 15.4% to 1.1p.

Credit provider Morses Club (LON: MCL) will have to constrain lending because its funders will not provide a peak trading advance for the next three months. The share price dipped by 8.13% to 2.205p.

Shares in Arkle Resources (LON: ARK) continued to fall after yesterday’s placing raising £200,000 at 0.4p a share to fund the drilling programme for the Stonepark zinc joint venture in Limerick. The share price declined a further 9.52% to 0.475p.

DX (Group) – continued growth should drive shares even higher

After months of suspended dealings the shares of the DX (Group) (LON:DX.) delivery group have risen nearly 14% in the last three weeks and now we can expect them to rise even further.

The results for the 52 weeks to 2 July reached a seven-year high and there is more to come.

Revenues were up 12% to £428.2m, while adjusted profits before tax were up 68% to £20.2m, and earnings were 45% better at 2.9p per share.

Net cash increased to £27m (£16.5m), strengthening the group’s balance sheet.

Ron Series, who retires today as Executive Chairman, commented:

“These are excellent results in a year of challenges for the Group. Both revenue and adjusted pre-tax profit reached seven-year highs. The significant progress the Group has made reflects a well-executed growth strategy, underpinned by the major investment we have made in the business over recent years.

“The Group has a very strong balance sheet, with net cash of £27 million. We believe that DX remains very well-positioned to achieve its growth objectives in the current financial year and beyond despite the economic uncertainties.”

The business

Established in 1975, DX is a market leader in the delivery of mail, parcels, pallets and freight of irregular dimension and weight.

The group, which provides a wide range of specialist delivery services to both business and residential addresses across the UK and Ireland, operates through two divisions, DX Freight and DX Express.

DX now provides one of the widest ranges of overnight delivery services in the market, as well as logistics services. 

Items that DX transports range from confidential documents and valuable packages to large, awkward-to-handle freight, unsuitable for automated conveyor.

Current outlook

Trading in the first quarter of the new financial year remained in line with management expectations. 

Encouragingly the group has a very healthy pipeline of new business opportunities as it enters the seasonally busier second quarter. 

The group’s management considers that despite the uncertainties facing the economy at present, the group remains in a strong position to achieve its growth objectives for the current financial year. 

The proposed return to the dividend list in the new financial year signals the Board’s confidence in DX’s growth prospects.

Analyst Opinions – two brokers rate a Buy

At Liberum Capital, analyst Gerald Khoo rates the group’s shares as a Buy looking for them to rise to 45p.

For the current year to end June 2023 his estimates are for £453m sales, £26.7m profits, earnings of 3.7p and a resumed dividend of 1.5p per share.

He notes that “We see DX offering a highly unusual combination of double-digit EPS growth, a double-digit free cash flow yield and a 6% dividend yield. “

Guy Hewett at finnCap has a Target Price of 57p for the group’s shares noting that the group is valued at a 53% discount to its peers. 

He also comments that the investment in infrastructure, systems and staff is paying off, supporting high service levels and market share gains

For this year his figures are looking for £457m revenues, £25.4m profits, 3.5p earnings and 1.5p in dividend per share.

Conclusion – 34p short-term objective

Against difficult trading hassles this group looks as though it is going to gain ground this year and going forward.

The shares look very attractive at the current 25p level, with my expectation of rising to 34p in the short-term

Vodafone shares sink on tepid growth numbers

Vodafone shares sank on Tuesday after the group said EBITDAL fell 2.6% due to a legal settlement in the prior year, and underperformance in their German business.

There was general uptick in revenue but cash flow from operating activities dipped due to working capital movements and higher tax payments.

Vodafone’s customer numbers increased, but by a very small increment. The number of European mobile customers rose just 700,000 to 66.7m while European broadband customers dipped by 100,000.

“With tiny revenue growth, a flat dividend and guidance for earnings to be at the lower end of previous guidance, telecoms group Vodafone is not exactly firing on all cylinders,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

The painfully slow rate of progress in Europe was partially offset rising by African customers, although the growth here was disappointing given the opportunity the region offers.

Vodafone shares sank 5% in the immediate market aftermath.

“It’s certainly not plain sailing at Vodafone right now, warnings that weaker economic conditions and rising costs are set to bring full year results down from previous guidance put a dampener on half year results. A €1bn extension of the existing cost savings programme and further pricing actions are being brought in to try and keep rising costs in check,” said Matt Britzman, Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Challenges remain in Germany, the group’s largest region, with the group losing customers in both broadband and TV. New legislation came into effect at the start of the year and Vodafone’s battled with compliance with the new rules and finding essential cross-selling opportunities under the new way of operating.”