A new dawn for Asian markets?

James Thom, Investment Manager, abrdn New Dawn Investment Trust plc

  • After a tough year, 2023 starts on a more optimistic note for many Asian markets
  • China’s reopening may fuel regional growth, while the interest rate cycle may support stock markets
  • There will still be fragility in the year ahead and a focus on quality companies with resilient earnings will be crucial

2022 was a challenging year for global markets – and Asia was no exception. While a handful of markets bucked the trend, the weakness of China was a major headwind for the region as a whole. However, at the start of 2023, there are promising signs of change: China is reopening, the interest rate cycle may be turning and companies are showing significant resilience. 

Asia has had face down global and domestic problems over the past 12 months. In particular, Covid lockdowns, political tensions and problems in its property sector have seen China act as a drag on regional growth. Countries with commodities exposure, such as Australia and Indonesia have been rare exceptions to the general weakness, with India also a surprise source of resilience during a tough year. 

2023 begins more optimistically. Whilst it’s certainly true that a recession in the West may dent demand for Asian exports and weigh on growth, there are nonetheless noteworthy signs of a shift in the economic cycle within Asia. Most important is the potential for a shift in the monetary policy cycle across the region. Asian central banks have followed the lead of the US Federal Reserve, but inflationary pressures have not been as acute, and rate expectations are now peaking. This should support Asian economies in the year ahead.

Unlike many Western economies, there is still structural growth in Asia. Many mature economies have a growth problem that is likely to continue even as the interest rate cycle turns. Debt burdens built up during the pandemic may constrain economic activity in the near-term. In contrast, the long-term growth drivers for Asia are still intact – a growing middle class, rising consumer spending, low debt and innovation. 

Finding the right opportunities 

This stronger economic growth backdrop should support the Asian corporate sector. Companies across the region are undoubtedly seeing rising input costs and margins coming under pressure, though this eased in the final quarter of 2022. abrdn New Dawn Investment Trust has been focused on finding those companies with strong and leading market positions, giving them power in pricing and procurement. This has helped protect the trust against earnings downgrades. These have stepped up as economic growth has weakened

Markets have re-priced over the year, with valuations far lower than at the start of 2022. Valuations are now at a level likely to appeal to trade buyers and this may be a catalyst for merger and acquisition activity. Companies have sufficient cash to fund acquisitions if they find the right opportunities. India is the notable exception, where valuations are high after a resilient year for the country’s stock markets. 

The China situation

China’s revival will be important in the year ahead. abrdn New Dawn has been underweight China but has made selective investments there more recently and is overweight Hong Kong. There has been a high profile shift in the government’s handling of Covid, with the country opening up travel and reducing quarantine requirements. There has also been some improvement in the country’s fragile property sector. 

China is still home to a range of innovative companies and is an important driver for economic growth in the wider region. We have reinvested in online food delivery business, Meituan Dianping, which has resolved its regulatory concerns. We also hold AIA Group in Hong Kong, which should be a beneficiary of China’s reopening, while also benefiting from the interest rate cycle. 

The wider portfolio

The financial sector should be a key beneficiary of the reopening in China and elsewhere, with demand for credit growth increasing and higher interest rates allowing for improved margins. The trust holds a number of banks in India, playing on the domestic growth theme, but also in smaller Asian markets where financial inclusion is increasing. 

The abrdn Indian Equity Fund remains the largest single holding in abrdn New Dawn. India is dependent on imported oil, and oil prices have dipped in recent months, inflation remains benign and Indian companies continue to deliver strong earnings. The economy is also supported by a cyclical recovery in infrastructure, increased government spending and credit growth. 

Regional giants, such as TSMC and Samsung had a tough year in 2022, but a recovery in the memory sector is likely in the year ahead as supply chains unlock and demand revives. Valuations also look more attractive. The trust retains exposure to the sector, albeit at a lower level than at the start of 2022. 

2022 was a tough year. 2023 should be a better year, but with global recession risk looming, it won’t be plain sailing. However, Asia is in a better place to the rest of the world and a focus on quality companies should bring resilience. 

Companies selected for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the investment management style described herein and not as an investment recommendation or indication of future performance.

Important information

Risk factors you should consider prior to investing:

  • The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than the amount invested. 
  • Past performance is not a guide to future results. 
  • Investment in the Company may not be appropriate for investors who plan to withdraw their money within 5 years. 
  • The Company may borrow to finance further investment (gearing). The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV) meaning that any movement in the value of the company’s assets will result in a magnified movement in the NAV. 
  • The Company may accumulate investment positions which represent more than normal trading volumes which may make it difficult to realise investments and may lead to volatility in the market price of the Company’s shares. 
  • The Company may charge expenses to capital which may erode the capital value of the investment. 
  • Movements in exchange rates will impact on both the level of income received and the capital value of your investment. 
  • There is no guarantee that the market price of the Company’s shares will fully reflect their underlying Net Asset Value. 
  • As with all stock exchange investments the value of the Company’s shares purchased will immediately fall by the difference between the buying and selling prices, the bid-offer spread. If trading volumes fall, the bid-offer spread can widen. 
  • The Company invests in emerging markets which tend to be more volatile than mature markets and the value of your investment could move sharply up or down. 
  • Yields are estimated figures and may fluctuate, there are no guarantees that future dividends will match or exceed historic dividends and certain investors may be subject to further tax on dividends.

Other important information:

Issued by abrdn Fund Managers Limited, registered in England and Wales (740118) at 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4AG. abrdn Investments Limited, registered in Scotland (No. 108419), 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1XL. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK.

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NatWest, Tekcapital, and the FTSE 100 at 8,000 with Alan Green

Alan Green joins the UK Investor Magazine Podcast for a deep dive into a selection of UK equities and the key market themes.

We discuss:

  • Natwest (LON:NWG)
  • Tekcapital (LON:TEK)
  • Logistics Development Group (LON:LDG)

NatWest shares fell on Friday after the UK bank’s profit before tax grew to £5.1bn in 2022 from £3.9bn in the year prior. However it was their outlook that worried investors. We run through the numbers.

Tekcapital’s Guident has signed a partnership to provide remote safety monitoring and  human-in-the-loop supervision to Auve Tech’s new MiCa autonomous shuttle. We discuss Tekcapital’s portfolio and upcoming MicroSalt IPO.

We finish with a look at Logistics Development Group.

FTSE 100 dips back beneath 8,000

After breaching 8,000 yesterday, the index smashed through the milestone level on Thursday trade as high as 8,047, before easing back.

The FTSE 100 was trading at 7,985 at the time of writing with the historic 8,000 failing to hold as support.

“For an index that’s been unloved for years, it’s refreshing to see the FTSE find its rhythm as this could help it win back some of the investors who turned their backs in 2016 when the Brexit vote was cast,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

The index was supported by favourable earnings updates from Centrica, Standard Chartered and RELX, as well as continued interest in Vodafone.

“Helping to drive the index on Thursday was Relx, up 3.2% after its full-year results were well received. Despite being one of the UK market’s biggest companies, Relx tends to stay out of the spotlight and is often underappreciated by investors. In a nutshell it provides information to people working in industries such as legal and insurance to help them do their job in a better way,” Mould said.

Vodafone shares were 3.4% to the good after Liberty Global acquired a 5% stake in the FTSE 100 telecoms company earlier this week.

Heavyweight selling

Despite a raft of positive corporate news on Thursday, investors sold market cap heavyweights including AstraZeneca, Unilever and Shell which ultimately resulted in the FTSE 100 slipping below 8,000.

Imperial Brands and Berkeley Group were the top fallers.

Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered investors will be pleased their board issued a more upbeat outlook than Barclays did yesterday as shares in the emerging markets bank gained 2.5% on Thursday.

Standard Chartered upgraded their expectations for the year ahead after profit before tax rose 15% in 2022. The group earns most of their profit before tax in Asia and is well placed for a recovery in the Chinese economy.

Centrica

Centrica was the FTSE 100’s top gainer after the British Gas owner’s adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to £3.5bn on the back of higher gas prices. Free cash flow increased to £2.5bn as the company announced a £250m share buyback.

Centrica shares were 5% higher to 103p at the time of writing on Thursday.

Standard Chartered shares enjoy outlook upgrade

Standard Chartered’s bullish perspective on the year ahead helped their shares higher on Thursday as the group increased their earnings expectations for the year ahead.

“We continue to make significant progress against the five strategic actions outlined last year, and we remain confident in the delivery of our financial targets,” said Bill Winters, Standard Chartered Chief Executive.

“We are upgrading our expectations, and are now targeting a return on tangible equity approaching 10% in 2023, to exceed 11% in 2024, and to continue to grow thereafter.”

The positive outlook was at odds with Barclays‘ clouded perception of growth in 2023 outlined in their results yesterday. Barclays’ outlook was dominated by concerns around the health of the UK economy and UK rate trajectories. This is problem Standard Chartered does not have.

Although both banks enjoyed the higher interest rate environment last year, Standard Chartered are focused on emerging markets and are benefiting from growth in their key markets.

“In many ways Standard Chartered’s 2022 results are similar to those of Barclays, but the shares are getting a much warmer reception because the outlook statement reads much more positively,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“Both banks recorded multi-year highs in profits and dividends last year, even if both were held back by loan losses and other one-off costs, and they have each extended share buyback programmes for this year.”

Standard Chartered are to return $2.8bn in buybacks and dividends back to shareholders.

Seize China opportunity

One of Standard Chartered’s key strategic actions is to ‘Seize China opportunity’. This is an attractive proposition for investors as the world’s second largest economy recovers from a prolonged coronavirus restrictions.

Despite the restrictions, Standard Chartered produced a 10% year-on-year increase in income from on-shore China in 2022. This could well accelerate in the year to come.

Standard Chartered generated $3.7bn of their $4.8bn total group profit before tax in Asia last year.

Centrica reaps the rewards of higher gas prices

After years of low profitability, dividend cuts and balance sheet concerns, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia elevated energy prices and provided the conditions for Centrica to unleash their earnings potential.

Centrica’s EPS for 2022 rose to 34.9p from 4.1p in 2021 as higher gas prices bolstered revenue by 61% to £23.7bn.

With customer numbers for their retail business only growing 2%, the lion’s share of Centrica’s revenue growth was achieved by price inflation in their British Gas retail and business supply, and increased marketing and trading activity.

Net cash rose to £1.2bn at the end of 2022 compare to £0.7bn at the end of 2021.

The higher energy price environment permitted Centrica to reinstate their progressive dividend policy and will pay 3p for the 2022 full year.

“There will no doubt be howls of anguish and pain at the news that British Gas owner, Centrica, has today reported a 700% jump in profits from almost £400m to just over £2,800m, with earnings per share rising even faster from 2.8p to 34.2p. Despite that huge increase, British Gas saw profits fall 39% to £72m, in no small part due to the company spending £75m on customer assistance measures,” said Steve Clayton, Head of Equity Funds at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The huge dichotomy between a group that makes billions and British Gas making millions is because the money is being made in the North Sea and beyond, where the energy is brought out of the ground at high prices. British Gas’s realm is onshore, where gas must be piped around through expensive networks and sold at thin margins in a market with many competitors.”

AIM movers: CPP InsureTech partnerships and ex-dividends

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CPP Group (LON: CPP) says that its InsurTech business, Blink Parametric, has signed a new partnership agreement for its flight disruption product with a European insurer. Two contracts have been extended with Canadian partners. Another strategic partnership has been secured with Firemelon, a provider of travel insurance systems to tour operators, which will include Blink’s real time platform in its systems. The shares are 11.4% higher at 206p.

The AGM statement of Tertiary Minerals (LON: TYM) underlines the focus on copper exploration in Zambia and Nevada. The Brunton Pass project in Nevada is the primary focus for 2023. The company has received historical data for the Mukai and Mushima North projects in Zambia, which are near to existing projects and mineralisation. Exploration targets are being identified and field programmes should commence in the next couple of months. There was a 10.2% share price rise to 0.135p.

Falcon Oil & Gas (LON: FOG) has commenced fracking on a well for the within the Amungee Member B shale at the Amungee NW-2H well in the Betaloo Basin, Australia. This will take up to three weeks. This is the first of two horizontal wells. The share price improved by 6.74% to 10.3p.

Libertine Holdings (LON: LIB) is linking up with Sweden-based Azelio to integrate and licence Libertine’s HEXAGEN platform with its energy storage technology. The two companies have worked together since 2020 to evaluate the technology. The share price rose 7.69% to 21p.

Deferral of contracts by clients has led to forecast downgrades for Jaywing (LON: JWNG) and 2022-23 pre-tax profit expectations have been more than halved to £1m, while next year’s forecast has been slashed from £3.7m to £2m. The digital marketing services provider has won an Australian online education services contract that helps to offset some of the expected decline in revenues in 2023-24. The share price slumped 21.8% to 5.375p.

Medical device developer Creo Medical (LON: CREO) is raising £25m at 20p a share and could raise a further £5.2m from an open offer. The share price fell 18% to 22.75p. However, the share price was below 20p earlier in the week. The cash will be used for further development and commercialisation of its minimally invasive electrosurgical devices. Management believes that there could be enough money to reach cash flow breakeven. Directors and management are investing £2.1m.

Asset manager AssetCo (LON: ASTO) has £3.1bn of assets under management, including the recently purchased SVM Asset Management. A loss was reported for the year to September 2022, but that was mainly due to costs and write-downs related to acquisitions. AssetCo is seeking further acquisitions, but this year’s figures will provide a more realistic indication of the underlying profitability of the group after its recent acquisitions. The share price declined 10.5% to 68p.

Baron Oil (LON: BOIL) has published the CPR for the Inner Moray Firth licence P2478 in the North Sea, where Baron Oil has a 32% interest and the operator is Reabold Resources (LON: RBD), which has a 36% stake. Fully listed Upland Resources (LON: UPL) owns the rest. The Dunrobin West prospect has prospective resource of 201mm barrels of oil equivalent gross with a 34% probability of success. The main risks relate to the trap and seal. Baron Oil shares fell 7.5% to 0.235p, although Reabold Resources shares are 2.08% higher at 0.245p.

Ex-dividends

i3 Energy (LON: I3E) is paying a dividend of 0.17p a share and the share price rose 0.12p to 20.02p.

Knights Group Holdings (LON: KGH) is paying an interim dividend of 1.53p a share and the share price fell 1.1p to 76.9p

Mattioli Woods (LON: MTW) is paying an interim dividend of 8.8p a share and the share price is 5p lower at 620p.

MJ Gleeson – low-cost home developer sees a 40% fall in profits this year

The half-time results to end December from MJ Gleeson (LON:GLE), the UK’s leading low-cost housebuilding group, showed a 1.4% fall in revenues to £171m and a 34.8% fall in pre-tax profits.

A lower forward order book in the first six months was further impacted by weaker sales after the mini-Budget.

However, average selling prices were up 15.6% at £186,400, perhaps reflecting higher cost prices.

Gleeson Homes’ customers are typically young, first-time buyers with a median income of £26,000.

The group’s current trading outlook notes that net reservations in the last four weeks have doubled from the low levels seen before Christmas but remain below the levels typically seen this time of the year.

The group, which sold 894 homes in the first half, is now targeting its full year completions at between 1,650 and 1,850 homes for the full year to end June 2023.

New CEO Graham Prothero stated that:

“We have an exciting opportunity to take Gleeson to the next level by delivering sustainable growth over the medium-term, across both our Homes and Land divisions.

 At the same time as managing through the lower levels of current market demand, I want to ensure that the Group is in the best possible shape to take advantage of the recovery which we are beginning to see early signs of.

In terms of guidance: confidence, underpinned by improved mortgage rates, is slowly returning to the market, evidenced by improving net reservations.”

Broker’s analysts are estimating a 40% fall in adjusted pre-tax profits for the end-June year’s figures, to £31.7m (£55.5m) on the back of some £347m (£373m) sales, taking earnings down from 70p to 42p per share. The question is whether the 15p dividend will be retained.

Both Singer Capital Markets and Liberum Capital are rating the group’s shares as a Buy, with Singers looking for 606p and Liberum 560p as their Target Prices.

Gleeson’s shares held steady at 454p after the results.

Why companies left AIM in January 2023

There were four companies that left AIM in January with Celsius Resources Ltd (LON: CLA) the only new admission during the month. There was a takeover, a winding up and two decided it was not worth being quoted for different reasons.
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5 January 2023
DeepMatter Group
DeepMatter management believes it will be easier to finance the business as a private company and they were backed by the major shareholders. DeepMatter has developed platforms that make it easier to discover and replicate chemical reactions. It is estimated that 50% of science is normally not reproducible. DeepMatter requires...

Proptech platform lettingaproperty.com hits funding target

Sponsored by lettingaproperty.com

Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high risk investment and you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 mins to learn more.

Online lettings company lettingaproperty.com has reached its Seedrs investment target with 10 days to spare, having raised 101% of the £850,000 crowdfunding goal.

Launched on 24 January 2023, the campaign is now approaching its final week, having attracted­­­ 191 investors across 16 countries so far. This includes an initial raise of £750,000 from the MEIF Proof of Concept & Early Stage Fund, managed by Mercia and part of the Midlands Engine Investment Fund, and Mercia’s EIS funds.

Although the Seedrs target has been met, the campaign will continue to remain open for investment until close on 23 February.

Founder and CEO, Jonathan Daines, comments: “We are delighted with the appetite that has been shown for investment in lettingaproperty.com as a result of our Seedrs crowdfunding campaign. Given the strong demand from investors, our board has unanimously agreed to extend our initial funding target.”

The lettingaproperty.com business model has already resulted in impressive growth, with more than 1,500 properties managed across the UK, and an 80% subscriber increase over the last two years. The company generated £1.1 million turnover in 2022 with £800,000 of that from recurring revenue subscriptions.

Funds raised in this round will focus on driving marketing activity to boost recurring revenue further and capture greater market share, while also fuelling the firm’s technology roadmap and the recruitment of specialist roles across the organisation.

Since 2008, lettingaproperty.com has offered a smarter alternative to traditional high street letting agents. Landlords can advertise their properties, process applications and tenant checks, create tenancy agreements and more, supported by a professional lettings team, on hand to provide expert help and advice at every step.

Everything is managed through the lettingaproperty.com rental platform, featuring built-in legal compliance, digital wallets, OpenBanking, document storage, and instant messaging – all facilitating secure landlord-tenant communication.

Fixed-fee lettings plans include rent protection and LetsProtect legal support – giving landlords financial peace of mind and an invaluable ‘safety net’ in the event of rent arrears, evictions or other legal disputes – crucial in this economic climate.

lettingaproperty.com is on a mission to become the go-to destination for renting. Offering simple rental property management from any device, anywhere, at any time.

Learn more about lettingaproperty.com and invest on the Seedrs crowdfunding page: https://www.seedrs.com/lettingaproperty/ 

Investing involves risks, including loss of capital, illiquidity, lack of dividends and dilution, and should be done only as part of a diversified portfolio. Please read the Risk Warnings before investing. Investments should only be made by investors who understand these risks. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and is subject to change in future. Seedrs or the fundraising business do not make investment recommendations to you and any investment decision should be made on the basis of the full campaign. No communications about any campaigns on Seedrs you receive from Seedrs or the fundraising business, through email or any other medium, should be construed as an investment recommendation.

This article has been approved as a financial promotion by Seedrs Limited on 14/02/23

Seedrs Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Seedrs Limited is a limited company, registered in England and Wales (No. 06848016), with registered office at Churchill House, 142-146 Old Street, London EC1V 9BW.

FTSE 100 dragged by disappointing Barclays and Hargreaves Lansdown results

Hargreaves Lansdown and Barclays weighed on the FTSE 100 on Wednesday after the financial companies provided disappointing earnings updates sending their respective shares into a tailspin.

Barclays shares were down 10% after the company said impairment charges and litigation costs were instrumental in a 14% drop in profit before tax to £7bn.

Total income was higher during the 2022 full year period due to higher interest rates, but the cost incurred due to trading mistakes and worsening economic conditions more than erased top line growth.

“Barclays has bitterly disappointed the market with its full year numbers. Profits have been stunted partly because of a big increase in litigation costs relating to the over-issuance of US securities. This costly mistake has been known about for some time, but these are now the hard consequences biting the bottom line,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, Lead Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Barclays poor update also rocked Lloyds and Natwest shares, down 3.2% and 2.3%.

Hargreaves Lansdown

Hargreaves Lansdown results for the six month ended 31st December were positive by many measures. Higher interest rates helped revenue grow 20% and the company increased active clients by 31,000 in the last half year. However, levels of net new business fell by 30% to £1.6bn and assets under administration fell 10% to £127bn suggesting underlying weakness in their investment business.

Hargreaves shareholders will enjoy a 3.6% increase in the half year dividend to 12.7p, but concern about lower new business and client assets hit shares.

Hargreaves Lansdown shares fell 6% and were the second biggest FTSE 100 faller behind Barclays.

UK inflation

UK inflation eased slightly in January and today’s 10.1% CPI reading acted as a counterbalance to weakness in the FTSE 100’s financial companies.

“Today’s UK CPI inflation data was followed by a sharp pullback in the pound as it added to the potential of a more dovish BoE as investors carefully follow any developments which may indicate the future steps of the central banks policy. GBPUSD pair retreated below 1.21 and is attempting to recover from this area,” said Walid Koudmani, Chief Market Analyst at online investment platform XTB.com.

With weakness in the pound, one would expect to see strength in the FTSE’s overseas earners. Shell, Diageo, BAE Systems, and BP provided some support for the index with minor gains.

Housebuilders also rallied on hopes lower inflation data would lead to easier monetary policy from the Bank of England and help the ailing UK property market.

The FTSE 100 was trading at 7,964, up 0.1%, at the time of writing.