Sterling remains depressed as Bank of England hikes rates to 2.25%

The Bank of England raised rates by 50bps to 2.25% on Thursday, meeting economist expectations and providing little relief for sterling that traded at 1.1306 against the dollar.

Signalling a willingness to hike rates further in coming meetings, 3 of the 9 Monetary Policy Committee voted for a 75 bps hike, but this was not enough to see a strong rebound in sterling.

Sterling had hit the lowest levels since the 1980s on Thursday after the Federal Reserve hiked rates overnight. Following the Fed hiking by 0.75%, the big driver in GBP/USD was a strong dollar sparked by a shift in the outlook for US rates.

“Looking ahead, the US central bank raised its medium-term expectations for federal funds rates, now predicting that they will hit 4.4% by the end of this year and 4.6% by the end of 2023 against previous guidance of 3.4% and 3.8%,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Despite the hike in UK rates, the outlook for the UK economy and strength in the dollar is likely to put pressure on GBP/USD for sometime to come.

This was highlighted by former Bank of England voting member Danny Blanchflower who called the new UK Prime Ministers proposals ‘disastrous’ and said traders should ‘short the pound’.

EUR/USD craters to 20-year low as the Fed hikes 75 bps

The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 75 bps to 3.25% overnight as policy makers took steps to bring soaring inflation under control.

Actions by Jerome Powell’s Fed yesterday saw the dollar soar, sending the Euro well below parity and to levels not seen for 20 years.

The Euro is facing pressure of its own with an European energy crisis that shows no signs of abating in the short term, and the weakening Euro is going to only exacerbate their problems.

Indeed, the sharp pace of the Fed’s hiking cycle will send waves through the financial system, just at a time Europes economies are seeking stability.

“The risks for financial markets are threefold. First, there remains uncertainty over when the Fed ends this rate hiking cycle. Second, the pace of the increase creates further risk for markets. Third, the economic consequences – which are experienced with a 12 to 18-month lag – will depend on the level and pace of hikes,” said Daniel Casali, Chief Investment Strategist at wealth manager Evelyn Partners.

“With respect to the first two points, there is some guidance from the FOMC’s latest interest rate projections, which are released at the end of every calendar quarter meeting. The FOMC median Fed Funds interest rate forecasts (the so-called “DOTS”) of committee members rose to 4.4% (3.4% in June) for end-2022, 4.6% (3.8% in June) for end-2023 and 3.9% (3.4% in June) for end-2024. These forecasts indicate that US rates are set to rise further from here before falling in 2024.”

JD Sports profit falls as international expansion pushes on

Global sportswear retailer JD Sports on Thursday said profit for the year had dropped, but were continuing with a robust overseas expansion programme.

Despite profit dipping, revenue bounced back in the 26 weeks to July 2022 with sales hitting £4,418.1m.

However, the market choose to focus on rising costs and JD Sports shares slipped 4% in early trade on Thursday.

The jump in revenue was more than offset by rising administrative costs and the costs of distribution as operating profit fell to £332.9m in the period, down from £396.8m a year prior.

Although JD Sports are facing rising costs in the short-term, they continued to push forward with expansion plans and opened up new stores in all geographies.

The group has recently opened stores in Greece and were planning new openings in Hungary as their expansion across Europe continued. JD opened 32 new stores across Europe to total 428 while the number of North America stores grew to 937. Ongoing focus on the UK was demonstrated with 440 stores at the end of the period.

“The progress that the Group is making in its global markets is reflected by the fact that total sales in the Group’s organic retail businesses were 5% ahead of the prior year,” said JD Sports Non-Executive Chair, Andrew Higginson.

“This performance is very encouraging, as notwithstanding the non-comparability of trading conditions in the United States, the Group has also faced numerous other challenges in the period including the well-publicised shortage of supply from a number of the international brands and the challenging global macro-economic situation”

Investors will also be digested forecasts the groups full year performance will largely be inline with last year’s, and the board remains cautious around economic conditions during the busiest period of the year for JD Sports trading.

PZ Cussons to focus on transformation strategy and core categories

PZ Cussons released full year results on Thursday which highlighted the progress in their strategy of moving from ‘turnaround to transformation’ by disposing of non-core brands and focusing on core brands in Hygiene, Baby and Beauty.

Like-for-like sales rose 2.9% in the year to 31st May 2022 while the impact of disposals and foreign exchange saw group revenue fall 1.7% to £592.8m.

Group profit before tax also slipped marginally, but was still ahead of market consensus with a full year PBT of £66.6m.

Like many firms currently, PZ Cussons experienced margin compression due to rising costs, but cost saving initiatives offset much of the impact as operating margin fell 30 basis points to 11.5%.

PZ Cussons shares were little changed in early trade on Thursday.

“Declining margins and volumes remain a key challenge for PZ Cussons in 2022 due to rising wages, raw materials, and energy prices. The UK and Australia will likely experience significant profitability pressures. However, prices in Asia and Africa could stem margin decline at expense of volume,” said Alex Smith, Global Sector Lead for consumer industries research at at Third Bridge.

“Carex’s pandemic boom is now over due to the normalisation of demand, inflation, and more competition in the sector.”

“Our experts say that PZ Cussons probably owns too many brands. It should trim its portfolio by selling off underperforming brands and increase its breadth in 3-4 essential categories through acquisitions.”

AIM movers: Enteq Technologies warns and WANdisco $25m contract

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Enteq Technologies (LON: NTQ) is the worst performer of the day after admitting that 2022-23 revenues and profit will not be as good as expected. The share price dived by 32.2% to 10p. finnCap had been estimating earnings of 1.7p a share, following a loss last year. No new forecast has been published. There is greater competition in the downhole oil and gas equipment market.

LBG Media (LON: LBG) is attracting more people to its content, but that is offset by weaker revenues per view and higher costs. The business is second half weighted. Zeus has edged down its pre-tax profit expectations for the full year to £16.5m, up from £14.4m last year. Net cash of £46.1m is forecast. Even after the 24.1% share price fall to 78p, LBG Media is trading on 13 times prospective earnings. LBG Media floated last December at 175p a share.

Oncimmune Holdings (LON: ONC) doubled its loss in the year to May 2022. The immunodiagnostics business increased costs much faster than revenues. Demand is increasing for the ImmunoINSIGHTS antibody profiling business. Costs have subsequently been reduced in the EarlyCDT Lung product business. That achieved annualised savings of £500,000. The shares are 22.1% lower at 61.5p.

SaaS-based retail software developer itim Group (LON: ITIM) is growing its annualised recurring revenues (ARR), but recognised revenues grew more slowly. The software helps high street retailers to compete with online retailers. Interim revenues were 6% ahead of £6.8m, while higher costs following the flotation last year, meant that the loss increased. A full year loss of £900,000 is forecast, but itim expects to achieve target ARR of £14m by the end of they year. Net cash is expected to be £4.2m at the end of 2022 and it should be maintained at around that level even though management continues to invest in growing the business. The 19.2% decline leaves the share price at 67.5p. The June 2021 placing price was 154p a share.

Trading has been difficult at kettle components and appliances supplier Strix (LON: KETL) because of caution concerning consumer spending. Retailers are not stocking up to the extent they have previously. Manufacturers’ order books are improving, but that will not help Strix until next year. Forecast 2022 revenues have been cut from £130m to £116m and that reduces the pre-tax profit forecast by 16% to £28.1m. A lower tax charge reduces the effect on earnings. The dividend should be edged up again this year. The share price has fallen 18.1% to 115.9p. The prospective multiple is nine and the yield is 7.4%.

Data management technology developer WANdisco (LON: WAND) has gained its largest ever contract and the share price has jumped 10.7% to 446.5p. The $25m with a global telecom company is the fourth with the same company – they total $39.3m. Full year revenues of $12m are forecast, more than doubling to $25m in 2023. WANdisco will remain loss making.

An AGM update by maritime monitoring technology developer SRT Marine Systems (LON: SRT) says that first half trading has been strong and much better than the same time last year. Guidance on first half revenues will be published on 3 October. The share price is 9.1% higher at 27.5p.

Shares in video games developer Frontier Developments (LON: FDEV) have risen even though it reported a slump in 2021-22 profit. This was due to more than doubling development spending to £46.2m and a write-down of investment in Elite Dangerous: Odyssey.  The higher investment in new games should enable Frontier Developments to continue to increase revenues by around one-fifth each year. There was an 8% increase in the share price to 1287p.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive: hard, but Ukrainian forces are moving forward

KYIV, Ukraine – While everyone was preparing for the widely announced counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kherson, in the first days of September, a rapid and successful de-occupation from the Russian invaders of the Kharkiv region began. 

Already on September 12, the Ukrainian authorities reported that they had reached the state border with the Russian Federation. Just a few days later, on September 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that almost the entire Kharkiv region had been liberated. According to the president, “in the first day of hostilities, Ukrainian troops advanced 19 km, in 5 days they fought 110 km, in total, almost 400 settlements were de-occupied.”

https://twitter.com/armyinformcomua/status/1570282805908865026

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation recognized the withdrawal of the military from the region, calling it a “regrouping of troops”. Russian propagandists called it a “great retreat”, as in 1915. However, according to the number of abandoned equipment, people, and panic among Russian bloggers, there was a “great escape” of the Russian troops.

ISW analysts in their September 11 report stated that Ukrainian forces have liberated more territory in 5 days than Russian troops have seized in all their operations since April. 

The first high-profile result of the de-occupation in the Kharkiv region was the liberation on September 8 of the city of Balakliya (population of 27 thousand people). 

Two days later, it became known that Ukrainian forces had entered the city of Kupyiansk – the key railway hub, cutting a major Russian army supply route. 

Also in those days was liberated operationally significant Vovchansk, northest of Kharkiv. This town is located 3 km from the border with Russia. 

Also, it was reported that the Ukrainian army reached the Hoptivka check point, at the northern border of Russia.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1569014694488469504

The liberation of the city of Izium (46,000 people live there) was an important success in the counteroffensive since it was this bridgehead that Russia used to attack Donbas from the north. 

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1570006459324284928

On September 17, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also took control of the second bank of the Oskil River.

According to British intelligence, the Russians fixed their positions between the Oskil River and the city of Svatove (Luhansk region). Control over this area will allow Ukraine to reach the Luhansk region. 

At the same time, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighting for strategically important Lyman, some villages of the Luhansk region have been already recaptured, such as Bilohorivka. 

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1571863876936863746

Thanks to the successful counter-offensive in the Kharkov direction, the liberation of the Donetsk region became much faster. Now there are free villages of Ozerne, Shchurove, and Dibrova in the Sloviansk direction. 

Unexpectedly the Ukrainian forces de-occupied the city of Sviatohirsk and the small settlement near that  – Yarova.

While the situation in the east looks dynamic, the offensive in the Kherson region is moving more slowly. Because it is an agricultural region with irrigation canals that can be used as defensive trenches. As of September 12, meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the settlements of Visokopilya, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Sukhy Stavok, and Myrolyubivka. 

The military informed about the de-occupation of about 500 square km. But the military officials urge to keep silent about recaptured territories due to humanitarian reasons and security issues. 

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1571650468559917057

However, recently President Zelensky said that it can look for someone that “after a series of victories we have a certain lull, but this is preparation”.

Sir Martin Sorrell’s S4 Capital enjoys strong revenue growth as the company lands more ‘whoppers’

S4 Capital shares jumped on Wednesday as the group founded by Sir Martin Sorrell saw strong revenue and said they had secured more ‘whopper’ clients.

Advertising and marketing group S4 Capital say they classify clients generating revenue of $20 million per annum as ‘whoppers’ and now had 8 clients that fell into this category.

Despite the surging revenue, the group saw losses for the period soar to £82.4m, but remained confident in their outlook and said they expected operational EBITDA to be £120m for the full year.

Investors choose to focus on the outlook – as opposed to the half year loss – and S4 Capital shares jumped 10% on Wednesday.

“Our top line growth continues to outperform the digital advertising and transformation markets,” said Sir Martin Sorrell, Executive Chairman of S4 Capital.

“This momentum is underlined by the increasing recognition of the success of our new age/new era model in industry surveys such as the Forrester Waves (the guide for buyers considering their purchasing options in a technology marketplace) and increasing conversion of client relationships at scale as we land more “whoppers”. In the first half of 2022, we continued to invest in increased human capital ahead of further top line advances and in management infrastructure, which impacted our Operational EBITDA.

FTSE 100 rallies into US interest rates decision as the pound drops, housebuilders surge

The FTSE 100 rallied on Wednesday as a strong dollar pushed down the pound ahead of the US rates decision. The weaker pound helped lift overseas earners and supported the index, helping to reverse some, but not all, of yesterdays drop.

The FTSE 100 was trading at 7,246, gaining 0.74% at the time of writing on Wednesday. The top gainers were dominated by companies who report in overseas currency such as the Dollar or Euro. The FTSE 100 oil majors were stronger, as were the miners.

BAE Systems was the top riser after a late night address by Vladimir Putin raised concerns of further escalation by Russia as they attempt sham referendums.

Asset managers and wealth managers gained as the market digested possible measures by the new UK Prime Minister this Friday. A reduction in tax and bigger bonuses for bankers will help ease the pressures of a slower economy on wealth managers.

Another big beneficiary of Liz Truss’s new measures could be the housebuilders, if she pushes through cuts to stamp duty.

Housebuilders surge

Following sharp declines yesterday, the housebuilders bounced back with Persimmon adding 4% while Taylor Wimpey and Barratts gained 3%.

However, analysts warned the short term benefits may be outweighed by the longe term impact on the housing market.

“Buyers are unlikely to be unhappy at the prospect of a tax cut, but if the government chooses to cut Stamp Duty in an effort to stimulate the housing market, there’s a risk it could do more harm than good,” said Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“It’s easy to see why the government is concerned about the housing market. We’ve seen demand fall consistently since May, when rocketing bills, rising house prices and ever-increasing interest rates started to take a toll on buyer enthusiasm. There’s a risk that if rate rises accelerate, pressure on buyers could reach a tipping point, where demand dries up.”

“We know from very recent experience that a Stamp Duty holiday can stimulate demand. However, the only reason these holidays work is because people feel they have a small window of opportunity to take advantage, otherwise they’ll miss out. The point at which they think they can just wait for the next one, they will start to become less effective.”

Hostmore – better than expected first half, but current slowing of business and higher costs lowers broker’s Target Price to 80p

The interim results, from this 90-unit hospitality group, give clear evidence that it is having to cope with higher prices, supply chain hassles and staff shortages that are helping to slow down its expansion progress.

The company takes in the chain of ‘Fridays’ and the ‘63rd +1st’ cocktail bars and restaurants that are now operating across the country.

The hot weather did not help second half 

In June alone more than 1m customers visited the group’s various brands – that in itself was an impressive figure – but since then trading operations have tensed somewhat. The hot weather did not help, while the prospects of higher energy costs are obviously impactive.

The half-time figures for the 26 weeks to 3rd July, showed that sales were 147% better at £98.5m (£39.9m) while EBITDA was up 143% at £7.1m.

Brokers lower estimates

Analysts Nigel Parson and Michael Clifton at the group’s corporate brokers finnCap still rate the shares as a Buy, but with a lowered Target Price of 80p (125p) a share, compared to the current price of just 22.5p.

Their current year estimates suggest an increase in revenues from £159.0m to £205.1m, with a loss of just £2.1m (£6.9m profit). 

These figures show that the group now has to have a much tighter control on costs, with the brokers estimating £220.4m of sales next year, while expecting a fractional loss of £0.4m.

But predictions for return to profits in 2024

The analysts now predict £239.0m revenues in 2024, with £4.1m of profits and 2.6p of earnings per share.

On those forecasts the group’s shares are now a more medium-term play as operating pressures ease and customers return.

Bidstack shares fall after broker revises revenue and EBITDA forecasts

Bidstack shares fell for a second straight day following the announcement their broker Stifel revised revenue and EBITDA forecasts shortly after the company announced their US strategy.

The announcement relating to Stifel’s forecast adjustments came just hours after Bidstack said they were expanding into the US with new sales hires and the appointment of Jude O’Connor to lead the expansion.

“Our new accelerated growth strategy in the US strategy is the next stage in Bidstack’s evolution. Bidstack has now grown sufficiently as a business that it is ready and able to tackle the huge, untapped opportunity for in-game advertising within the US market,” said Bidstack CEO James Draper.

“Our plans build on our recent significant progress in our technology and we expect they will drive meaningful additional revenue for the Group in the near to medium term.”

However, the companies plans to ‘tackle’ the US comes at a time the company is yet the make any real headway in their current markets, generating just £2m revenue in the first half. The company said they were targeting £100m revenue in the medium term – a big ask from a company that’s taken years to generate £2m in a $196.8bn gaming market.

There will also likely be concerns the new hires will mean higher administrative costs, cash burn and the possibility of further fundraising.

The group had £3.6m in the bank 30th June 2022 and had burnt through £3.4m in the first half of 2022.

Given Bidtack’s strong following of private investors, the limitation for only institutional investors to see the research note issued by Stifel, and the sheer lack of detail included in yesterdays RNS, will have increased nervousness among Bidstack shareholders as to what the revision in outlook actually was.

Bidstack shares were trading at 3p on Wednesday morning, down 11% on the day and 38.5% year-to-date.