What the dollar’s decline reveals about gold’s rally

by Russell Shor

The Dollar and Gold are Related

For much of market history, the dollar and gold have moved in opposite directions. When the greenback strengthens, the precious metal often falters; when the dollar weakens, gold tends to shine. There are exceptions, of course, but the inverse link remains a defining feature of their relationship.

One reason is straightforward: gold is priced in dollars. A drop in the currency makes bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies, lifting demand and often sparking rallies. Conversely, a firmer dollar can sap interest, pushing prices lower.

This interplay has been especially influential in 2025, with shifting dollar dynamics shaping gold’s path and reinforcing just how tightly the two assets remain entwined.

Dollar Weakness at the Core

The dollar’s slide through August has been central to gold’s surge. A weaker greenback makes the metal cheaper to buy and strengthens its appeal as a store of value. This long-standing inverse link is once again driving the rally, a theme underlined at Jackson Hole.

Policy Shifts Driving Momentum

Jerome Powell’s speech reset market thinking. A September rate cut now looks likely, with another possible before year-end. Lower rates pull real yields down, reducing the cost of holding gold. The dollar dropped sharply on 22 August after Powell’s keynote, adding fuel to bullion’s climb.

Politics Add to the Strain

Policy is not the only pressure. Moves to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook rattled confidence in the bank’s independence. Trade disputes and tariff battles have added to concerns over the dollar’s reserve-currency role. These strains deepen the decline and lift gold’s appeal.

Flows Back Up the Story

Flows confirm the shift, with global gold ETFs drawing roughly $44 billion by mid-August, putting 2025 on course to rival the 2020 record. Lipper data also showed $556 million moving into gold and precious-metals funds in the week to 27 August. Central banks remain active, with China extending purchases into July, Poland adding to reserves, and the People’s Bank of China logging a ninth straight month of buying. The shared aim is clear: diversify away from the dollar and build lasting support for bullion.

The Takeaway

Gold’s rally is not simply about higher prices. It reflects policy shifts, political tension and eroding confidence in the dollar. The greenback’s decline is fuelling demand, but more importantly it signals a structural change in how investors and central banks are positioning for the future.

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Journeo strengthens national security portfolio with £13.7M acquisition of infrastructure protection specialist

AIM-listed Journeo plc has completed a strategic £13.7 million acquisition that significantly expands its capabilities in critical national infrastructure protection.

The transport technology specialist has acquired Crime and Fire Defence Systems Limited (CFDS), a company that specialises in protecting the UK’s most sensitive facilities from physical and cyber threats.

Journeo’s shares were 4% higher at the time of writing on Tuesday.

Strategic Expansion Into High-Security Markets

CFDS brings expertise in safeguarding critical national infrastructure including power plants, water facilities, and high-security industrial sites. The company provides cutting-edge access control systems, perimeter intrusion detection, and advanced thermal surveillance technology.

The acquisition opens exciting cross-selling opportunities with CFDS’s blue-chip client base of multinational utilities and industrial companies.

Strong Financial Performance Drives Deal

CFDS delivered attractive results for the 12 months ended April 2025, with audited revenue of £17.33 million and profit before tax of £1.36 million. The company’s net assets stood at £3.93 million.

Journeo expects the acquisition to boost current year revenue by £4 million and add £0.4 million to profit before tax in the remaining four months of FY25.

Looking ahead to FY26, the deal is projected to increase revenue by £17 million and adjusted profit before tax by £1.4 million above current market expectations.

Deal Structure and Funding

The total consideration comprises £10.7 million in cash from existing resources, £2 million in deferred payments over 24 months, and £1 million through new share issues with a minimum 24-month holding period.

With CFDS bringing over £1 million in cash, the enlarged group will have an aggregate cash balance of £9 million post-completion.

Over the past four years, Journeo has invested more than £6 million in research and development while achieving remarkable growth rates. The company has delivered a 38% compound annual growth rate in revenue and an impressive 102% CAGR in profit before tax.

Previous acquisitions of Infotec and MultiQ Denmark in 2023 have already strengthened Journeo’s market position across fleet operations and local authority sectors.

Today’s acquisition helps deliver on Journeo’s ambitious three-year goal to reach £100 million in revenue while maintaining strong profit margins.

“We are delighted to announce the acquisition of CFDS, a recognised leader in utility Infrastructure Protection solutions,” said Russ Singleton, Chief Executive Officer.

“This acquisition aligns with our strategy of taking our core capabilities into adjacent markets and strengthens our offering and broadens our reach. We look forward to working closely with the CFDS team to unlock value and deliver enhanced integrated solutions to a broader client base.”

FTSE 100 higher as BAE Systems, Babcock and gold rally

The FTSE 100 was largely flat on Monday as investors digested the latest twist in the Trump tariff saga with US markets closed for Labor Day. BAE Systems and Babcock rose on a large order for UK warships from Norway.

We are never too far from tariff headlines despite most major economies striking deals with the US, and the latest twist will be at the front of short-term traders’ minds on Monday.

“US markets are closed for Labor Day, but headlines are anything but quiet,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“A federal appeals court ruled Trump’s global tariffs illegal, setting up a Supreme Court showdown before they expire in mid-October – injecting fresh uncertainty into trade policy. That backdrop, coupled with rising bets on a Fed rate cut later this month, has gold glistening near record highs as investors seek safety. All eyes now turn to this week’s labour data, which could shape the size of the Fed’s next move.”

With US markets closed, there was a lack of insight into how US stocks would react to the court ruling after a US-tech sell-off on Friday. As a result, UK investors preferred to take a wait-and-see approach, with an early rally fading as Monday’s session progressed.

“The FTSE 100 is up around a quarter of a percent early on Monday, having put in a modest gain for the month of August, with banking stocks sliding on the last day to take some shine off the performance,” said Saxo UK Investor Strategist, Neil Wilson.

“Today, BAE Systems is riding higher after the UK secured its largest ever warship deal from Norway, with the £10bn deal supporting its Glasgow shipyards for years to come. Babcock and Rolls-Royce are also getting in on the action, with all three rising over 2% on the news.”

BAE Systems was 1.8% at the time of writing. We explained in a recently published article why BAE Systems will need plenty more orders of this scale to justify its current valuation.

Gold’s rally towards $3,500 helped Endeavour Mining shares to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard with a 3.8% gain.

3i Group was the top faller with a 1.8% drop.

Banks, including Barclays and Lloyds, were higher as they recovered some of the losses sustained at the end of last week on the back of suggestions of a banking windfall tax.

AIM movers: Team Internet sees signs of improvement after profit slump and Aura Energy offtake deal

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Galileo Resources (LON: GLR) says drilling at licence PL253 in the Kalahari Copperbelt in Botswana has intersected a wide interval containing intermittent copper mineralisation. Further study is required. Drill samples will be tested. Two further holes will be completed shortly. The share price rose 12.8% to 1.1p.

ValiRx (LON: VAL) says majority-owned Cytolytix has received a notice of allowance for a European Patent application for “Nanoparticle for Anti-Cancer Peptides and Uses Thereof” (application No. 21798092.9). The share price improved 11.5% to 0.725p.

Abingdon Health (LON: ABDX) has launched the second phase of expansion at its US facility. It has won five projects for developing lateral flow tests. The expansion of the Wisconsin facility includes manufacturing capacity. The share price is 9.52% higher at 5.75p.

Aura Energy (LON: AURA) has secured an offtake agreement with a US utility for uranium oxide concentrate from the Tiris project in Mauritania. The price is well above the expected cost of production. It is subject to a final investment decision being made on the Tiris project by the end of 2025. There is also a spot sales agreement with an international uranium group. The share price increased 8.33% to 9.75p.

FALLERS

Mkango Resources (LON: MKA) had cash of $1.2m at the end of June 2025. That was before the announcement of plans to combine its Songwe Hill rare earths project in Malawi with the Pulawy rare earth separation project in Poland and list them on Nasdaq as Mkango Rare Earths. This creates a vertically integrated rare earths business. The pro forma value of Mkango Resources’ shareholding would be $400m before any fundraising and transaction costs. The Tyseley Energy Park facility is moving towards production of finished sintered NdFeB magnets. The US operation is progressing towards the financing of its HPMC recycling project. Chinese restrictions have reduced magnet exports. The share price declined 7.93% to 37.75p.

UBS has disposed of its 5.74% stake in Revolution Beauty (LON: REVB). The cosmetics supplier has raised £16.5m at 3p/share. The share price is 6.67% lower at 3.64p.

Team Internet Group (LON: TIG) was always expected to report a downturn in interim revenues following changes to Google search policy and they slipped from $409.7m to $263.9m. A loss was reported, but there was a profit before amortisation and impairment. The internet domains business continues to grow with new contract wins set to contribute to the second half. The comparison business had a weaker first half, but it has started to grow as revenues build up in newer countries. There are also signs of improvement in search, but they are relatively modest, with higher gross margin achieved on newer search services. Zeus forecasts a 2025 underlying pre-tax profit of $49.4m, recovering to $62m next year. Net debt is expected to be $94m at the end of 2025, which is much higher than previous estimates. The share price fell 3.57% to 59.5p, which is seven times prospective earnings.

Oil and gas company Sunda Energy (LON: SNDA) had available cash of £976,000 at the end of June 2025. There was a cash outflow from operations of £1.39m in the latest six-month period. There was £1.95m spent on exploration. Drilling in Timor-Leste is planned for the first half of 2026. Management is seeking additional opportunities and applications for two blocks in the Philippines are awaiting authorisation. The share price decreased 3.77% to 0.0255p.

Challenger Energy Group (LON: CEG) has completed the sale of its oil and gas operations in Trinidad and Tobago and has received a further $500,000 in cash. There are further deferred payments of $1m over the next 16 months. Total payment will be $1.75m, plus a potential contingent payment of up to $2m linked to production levels. The share price is 3.12% lower at 7.75p.

Alumasc Group: with results tomorrow, despite challenging times 2025 sales and profits expected to be ahead

Tomorrow morning, Tuesday 2nd September, the £121m-capitalised Alumasc Group (LON:ALU) will declare its 2025 results. 
Way back at the start of February this year, I featured the group, with its shares then trading at 292.50p, on the basis that I was expecting it to be a steady performer for any portfolio. 
Since then, the shares have peaked, hitting 395p in early June showing a 35% increase in price in just four months, before easing back on profit-taking to 335p. 
Now I expect that a good piece of corporate news will get them moving back upwards again, offering a useful buying...

ITM Power: shares at 66.20p expected to react upwards with increased contract win news, plus the Hydropulse deal

The Final Results to end-April recently announced by the £410m-capitalised ITM Power (LON:ITM), showed a strong performance and pointed to ongoing growth – but, as yet, the group’s shares have hardly flickered with investor interest, however that could soon change. 
The group reported a 50% hike in revenues to £26.0m (£16.5m), but with an increased adjusted EBITDA loss of £33.0m (£30.4m), while its end-year cash balance was better than expected at £207m (£230.3m), against a ‘guided figure’ in the range of £160m to £175m. 
The contracted firm year-end order backlog was a record at £14...

5 tips for those approaching retirement by Scottish Widows

The FCA’s most recent Financial Lives survey found 31% of non-retirees had not thought about how they will manage financially in retirement.

To guide those savers nearing retirement who need to prepare financially, Scottish Widows has provided five tips covering tax, life plans, and state entitlements.

The five tips below have been kindly provided by Robert Cochran, Retirement Expert at Scottish Widows:

  1. Look at your income options

Ensuring you have fully considered how you will fund later life is a crucial part of the pension planning process. Drawdown normally allows you to take up to 25% of the value of your pension as a tax-free lump sum and keep the rest invested in a drawdown plan. You can then take taxable withdrawals from the rest, as and when you’d like. Any withdrawals you take from your drawdown plan will count as income for tax purposes.

On the other hand, partners may want to consider annuities and the role of joint annuities in providing an income after the death of a partner. 85% of annuities are purchased on a single life basis, but these do not provide an income to the surviving spouse after the death of the annuity holder. Men tend to have bigger pension pots, to be older and to die at an earlier age than their spouses, which means many women lose a significant source of their retirement income when their partner who held a single annuity dies.

  1. Know your tax implications 

There are a number of different ways you can access your pension savings, and there are tax implications for each of these so it pays to know ahead of time before you draw anything out of your pension pot. Most people accessing their pension at 55 years old will be able to take 25% of their pension tax-free but if you take it out as income all in one go, you maximise the tax you have to pay. 

  1. Factor in life events

Whether it’s a new addition to the family, property or big travel plans, you may need to use part of your retirement income to financially support family members. Ideally, aim for small, consistent contributions when you’re working in a full or even part-time capacity as this can help top up your pot for later life. It’s important, where possible, to maintain your earnings and pension contributions as much as you can so you can comfortably afford everything the future may bring with it. 

Launched specifically for the Pension Engagement Season, Scottish Widows’ #PensionMirror is a handy AI-powered tool, to help you get more engaged with your pension planning and ensure you’re on the right track for what you want the future to look like.

  1. State Pension entitlement  

Our latest Retirement Report shows that just over half (54%) expect the State Pension to eventually form a meaningful portion of their retirement income, with three quarters (75%) calling it hugely important in helping them pay for everyday necessities so it’s well worth knowing your entitlement ahead of time. 

You can check your projected State Pension entitlement and if there are any gaps that you might be able to top up. For instance, if you have been looking after children and haven’t earned over £12,584, you’ll be able to apply for national insurance credits to cover these years. You can do all of this at: gov.uk/check-state-pension. 

  1. Track down any lost pensions 

Track down lost pensions, using the Government’s pension tracing tool and consider if you should combine them into one so it’s easier to manage, it could save you money too. Visit Pension Wise (www.adviseme.co.uk) – the Government’s free service for over 55s. It’s also worth remembering that if you have any gaps in your National Insurance records, you can claim NI contributions going back to 2006 until 5th April 2025. 

Dialight maintains full-year profit outlook despite sluggish demand

LED lighting specialist Dialight has reaffirmed its expectations for the year ending March 2026, despite facing continued headwinds in its industrial markets.

The group, which specialises in lighting solutions for hazardous industrial environments, reported marginally lower sales for the five months to 31 August compared with the same period last year.

Sales have been dampened by tariff uncertainty, weaker macroeconomic conditions, and their impact on the company’s core hazardous location sectors.

However, Dialight are still managing to carve out profit growth. Year-to-date adjusted operating profit at the end of August is expected to significantly outpace both the six months to September 2024 ($0.9m) and the six months to March 2025 ($3.2m).

Dialight shares were only 1% higher on Monday, but the positivity surrounding rising profits appears to have already been priced in, given a 100% rally so far in 2025.

The company has benefited from a $1.4m one-off Covid credit from the US Internal Revenue Service, previously disclosed in July’s preliminary results.

Net debt continues to fall. From $17.8m at March 2025, it fell to $15.1m by July before improving further to around $13.0m by the end of August.

These improvements reflect the ongoing benefits of Dialight’s transformation plan, which has delivered margin improvements, overhead cost reductions, and enhanced cash generation.

Despite the challenging operating environment, the board maintains confidence in achieving current market forecasts of $5.7m adjusted profit before tax for the full year.

UK house prices fall in August – Nationwide

UK house prices unexpectedly fell in August as unaffordability weighed on prices and high mortgage rates acted as a barrier to entering the market for first-time buyers.

Annual house price growth slipped slightly to 2.1%, from 2.4% in July, while month-on-month prices dipped by 0.1%, according to data released by Nationwide on Monday.

“The relatively subdued pace of house price growth is perhaps understandable, given that affordability remains stretched relative to long-term norms. House prices are still high compared to household incomes, making raising a deposit challenging for prospective buyers, especially given the intense cost of living pressures in recent years,” said Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist.

“Combined with the fact that mortgage costs are more than three times the levels prevailing in the wake of the pandemic, this means that the cost of servicing a mortgage is also a barrier for many. Indeed, an average earner buying the typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit faces a monthly mortgage payment equivalent to around 35% of their take-home pay, well above the long run average of 30%.”

Gardner continued to explain that a combination of falling borrowing costs and rising incomes should underpin the housing market going forward.

“However, affordability should continue to improve gradually if income growth continues to outpace house price growth as we expect, Gardner said.

“Borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered again in the coming quarters. This should support buyer demand, especially since household balance sheets are strong and labour market conditions are expected to remain solid. “

Director deals: boohoo founder buying but retailer still has problems

Founder and executive director Carol Kane bough 6.86 million shares in online retailer boohoo (LON: DEBS) at 14.5p each, following the recent full year results. That is just under £1m invested and takes her shareholding to 27.8 million.  
She has been buying shares since November 2024 and spent around £300,000 on share purchases at prices between 30p/share and 34p/share. Back in 2020 she bought two million shares at 214p each.
However, in 2017 she sold 4.65 million shares at 230p each, raising £10.7m. That means that sales in the past decade have raised around £5m than purchases.
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