FTSE 100 dodges European equity bloodbath

The FTSE 100 flirted with gains on Friday despite sharp declines in other major European equity indices which sank in a broad risk-off move.

The outperformance in the FTSE 100 also came after a surprise rate hike by the Bank of England yesterday.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.1% at 7,268 just after 12pm on Friday whilst the German Dax and French CAC were deep in the red, both down over 1%.

“The Bank of England surprised everyone by hiking interest rates yesterday. In doing so it only confirmed new Governor Andrew Bailey’s reputation as an ‘unreliable boyfriend’ after he flirted with a widely expected rise back in November before thinking twice, but the market seems to be taking this latest development in its stride,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“While the decision to move now seems at odds with the uncertainty around the economic impact of the Omicron variant, and rising rates are not typically good news for stocks, businesses and markets don’t love uncontrolled inflation either so the Bank of England at least trying to get a handle on things isn’t all bad news.”

The early rise in the FTSE 100 coincided with declines in the pound as London’s leading index once again displayed an inverse relationship with the pound.

The pound rose sharply on Thursday following the surprise rate hike and the fade trade was played out in the FTSE 100 on Friday.

The weaker pound helped support exporting stocks with consumer shares and the miners making reasonable gains in early afternoon trade on Friday.

UK banks also gained as investors continued to cheer the prospect of better performance as a result of higher rates.

Barclays, Lloyds and NatWest crept higher after surging yesterday.

Strong UK retail sales also created a sense of optimism as November retail sales rose 1.4%. However, the jump in retail sales could prove to be short lived as the rise was largely down to people doing their Christmas shopping early over fears of shortages. 

This could set us up for a disappointing Christmas trading period, especially if Boohoo’s troubles are a reliable barometer.

Outperforming peers, Vietnam and producing alpha with Vietnam Holding

We were thrilled to once more welcome Craig Martin, the chairman of Dynam Capital, manager of the Vietnam Holding Investment Trust to the UK Investor Magazine Podcast.

Vietnam Holding has had a storming year with 12-month share price performance standing at 95% at the time of recording.

This made Vietnam Holding one of the best performing Investment Trusts listed in London this year and has significantly outperformed its peers.

We discuss the key driving factors behind the trust’s success including the strength of the Vietnamese economy and the increasing number of retail investors in Vietnam.

There is a deep dive into the investment themes Craig and the team are focusing on, and an exploration of the companies held within the trust.

For more information on Vietnam Holding, please visit their website and watch their latest investor presentation on-demand.

One Planet Capital targets zero-emmisions business Zedify for EIS deployment

The One Planet Capital EIS Fund is lining up an investment into Zedify, a zero-emissions delivery company utilising electric cargo bikes.

The One Planet Capital EIS focuses on companies in the emerging green economy and Zedify’s solution to urban deliveries will compliment existing holdings in the portfolio.

Zedify are providing a measurable positive impact on the environment by reducing the use of polluting diesel vans and improving the air quality in urban centres.

Expanding market

According to One Planet Capital, Zedify are operating in a market worth £3.9 billion that will welcome such solutions as councils push to reduce traffic and congestion.

New delivery services have popped up during the pandemic but the ‘cargo’ tends to be food, either groceries or takeways.

Zedify are applying this concept to larger deliver of goods offering an alternative to couriers with services such as next day delivery and collections from businesses.

The company is currently operating in the UK, however, there will be the opportunity to expand into Europe in the future.

Zedify are raising £1.2m in total with a pre-money valuation of £5m.

Just Eat partners with Asda

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Just Eat has partnered with Asda, where from January customers will be able to order supermarket items.

Andrew Kenny, the UK managing director of Just Eat, said: “We live in an on-demand world. We want to make sure we are getting our customers the food they want, when they want, when they want it. Our tie-up with Asda means we can help people access everything from store cupboard essentials to fresh groceries in a matter of minutes.”

Just Eat has said that 1,000 items will be available from the supermarket. The locations that Asda items will be available for Just Eat customers will be announced early next year.

Simon Gregg, the vice-president of online grocery at Asda, said: “We’re always looking for new ways to offer customers more choice and extend the number of delivery options available. The trial will also see Asda become more accessible to a wider customer base through Just Eat’s significant presence in the on-demand food delivery space.”

Halifax’s house price predictions for 2022

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The UK house price boom is set to end next year, Halifax has predicted.

In its predictions, the mortgage lender said that house prices might only increase by 1% in 2022 after surging 8% in 2021.

“Looking ahead, with the prospect that interest rates may rise further in 2022 to subdue rising inflation, and with government support measures phased out, greater pressure on household budgets suggests house price growth will slow considerably,” said Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax.

“We expect that house prices will maintain their current strong levels but that growth will be broadly flat during 2022… There is still a large degree of uncertainty around this forecast, particularly the extent to which savings accrued during the pandemic continue to boost housing transactions and prices, and how lasting the recent shifts in housing preferences prove to be.”

UK retail sales jump in November

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UK retail sales jumped 1.4% in November. Retail sales are 4.7% higher than the same period a year earlier.

The latest figures show that clothing sales are up by 2.9% and other non-food stores saw growth increase by 2.8%.

Commenting on the figures, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst, said: “It looked like Santa had got the memo from retailers and was on track to deliver them the kind of Christmas they could only dream about in 2020.  With the exception of food, sales were up across the board in November as people shopped early and shopped hard.

“More cash was spent on clothing as people got their glam ready to socialise in the run up to Christmas, sales actually soared above pre pandemic levels for the first time as people grew more and more confident about their festive plans. 

“Omicron was an unexpected gift and one most retailers wish they could return.  Despite a surge in spend on the high street in November which did take cash away from those online behemoths, December’s already shaping up to be a very different story.  Footfall is down dramatically and there will be some consumers deciding what they don’t have now they won’t be buying, or they’ll resort back to their virtual baskets.”

New AIM admission: DSW Capital licensing success

DSW Capital licences its brand to professionals involved in corporate finance and accounting services and provides them with back office support. There is limited capital investment required. At the end of October 2021, there were 82 professionals in the network.
Acquiring an existing business and converting it to the DSW brand could help the acquired business to access better quality work.
Warrington-based DSW believes that the flotation will boost the profile of the business and enable it to grow geographically and widening the services provided. There will be £800,000 used to pay off borrow...

The Bank of England raises rates to 0.25%

The Bank of England has raised rates to 0.25% for the first time in three years in a surprise move that sent the pound and bond yields higher.

USD/GBP was 0.79% higher at 1.3367 and the UK 10-year gilt yield rose to 0.797% in the immediate market reaction. The FTSE 100 dipped slightly 7,241 but held onto 1% gains on the day.

The Bank of England had to balance the impact of soaring inflation on households and businesses with the economic impact of the new coronavirus variant. The possible negative impact of inflation won.

Inflation has recently hit 5.1% – the highest level for 10 years – driven by rising food and fuels costs. This proved too much for the Monetary Policy Committee who voted 8-1 in favour in hiking rates.

Today’s move would suggest the Bank of England is planning to walk a similar path as the Federal Reserve in embarking on a series of hikes to help fight rising prices.

However, trying predict what the Bank of England will do next could be a source of uncertainty because the Bank of England has surprised markets on a number of occasions now and provided mixed messages.

The Bank of England did say they saw inflation peaking around 6% in April. A sustained period of inflation would demand further action from the Bank of England to help preserve household spending power.

“Whilst there was some thought that the emergence of Omicron may delay any rate rises, the rise has only been marginal with rates moving from 0.10% to 0.25% and this is unlikely to slow the economy much,” said Dan Boardman-Weston, CIO at BRI Wealth Management.

“We think the Bank needed to send a message that they are taking the threat of inflation seriously and leaving rates at the same level in the same week inflation moved over 5% would have been poorly received.”

Petrofac’s woes show little sign of abating

Energy services provider Petrofac has suffered during the pandemic and a trading statement released today suggests their woes may persist for the foreseeable future.

The company said it expects revenue to be $3 billion and profit similar to last year and market expectations. Petfrofac recorded at $189 million loss in 2020.

Revenue of $3 billion would be less than the $4 billion recorded in 2020 and significantly less than 2019’s $5.5 billion revenue.

“Petrofac’s expecting full year revenue to come in significantly below last year’s as low order intake and coronavirus-related troubles continued to weigh on the business. While the Securities and Fraud Office investigation into bribery claims has finally been settled, the group will be feeling the impact of the ordeal for some time to come,” said Laura Hoy, Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Not only was it dealt a £77m pound fine, but the group was unable to do business in some of the most lucrative oil and gas markets which has had a significant impact on this year’s results.”

“Today’s update suggests the group’s hit the ground running as it rebuilds its order backlog under new CEO Sami Iskander. But there’s a long road ahead and covid-related headwinds aren’t helping matters. With revenue and profits expected to remain significantly below 2019 levels for the foreseeable.”

Sami Iskander, Petrofac’s Group Chief Executive, commented:

“In 2021 Petrofac has taken an important step forward, closing out the SFO investigation and embedding a strategy focused on future growth. During this period we have continued to deliver projects and operations safely for our clients worldwide, despite the ongoing challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic which continue to impact our current E&C portfolio.”

Having previously been included in the FTSE 100, Petrofac shares are a shadow of their former selves, trading at 111p on Thursday valuing the company at just £577m. Petrofac shares traded above 1,750p in 2012.

Stocks jump on hawkish Federal Reserve plans

Stocks have reacted positively to the decision by the Federal Reserve to taper their asset purchases in a hawkish turn of events on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve said they planned to reduce their monthly asset purchases by $30 billion per month, double the previously expected taper pace of $15 billion.

The Federal Reserve also signalled there would be three rate hikes next year to help bring soaring inflation under control.

US rates are currently at 0.25% and the market now expects this to rise to 1% by the end of next year.

Global equites rallied on the clear guidance provided by the Fed and the promise they would act to bring record inflation under control.

“Markets certainly seem to have a spring in their step, with the major indices across Europe, Asia and the US all pushing forward,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy update last night has gone down well with the markets.”

“The prospect of three US interest rate hikes in 2022 would suggest the central bank has a clear plan to not let inflation get out of control. Equally, it isn’t being too aggressive to trip up the economy. This sense of balance is exactly what investors want, and an upbeat tone from the Fed certainly seems to have rubbed off on markets.

“The S&P 500 closed 1.6% higher last night, and Japan’s Nikkei followed suit with a 2% advance on Thursday. In mainland Europe, markets enjoyed gains of between 1.2% and 1.7%, while in the UK the FTSE 100 advanced 1.1%.”

News from the Federal Reserve come sin what will be a busy week for central banks – Thursday will see the Bank of England release their interest rate decision amidst soaring inflation and rising coronavirus cases.