Avacta – research house sees peptide-drug company reporting 75% deeper loss this year, but it values shares at over four times current price

Avacta (LON:AVCT), the £148m-valued life sciences company targeting cancer treatments and diagnostics, is expected to see an adjusted pre-tax loss of some £41.3m (£23.6m), on the back of just a small increase in revenues to £23.9m (£23.2m) for the year to end December this year.

The company has two divisions: a clinical stage oncology biotech division harnessing proprietary therapeutic platforms to develop novel, highly targeted cancer drugs; and a diagnostics division focused on supporting healthcare professionals.

Avacta owns two novel technology platforms: pre|CISION and Affimer.

pre|CISION improves potency and reduces toxicity of cancer drugs by only activating them inside the tumour.

Affimer proteins are antibody mimetics being developed as diagnostic reagents and oncology therapeutics.

It is claimed that successful clinical trials would be transformative for Avacta. 

Research Experts Give 188p A Share Value

With expertise in the biotech, medtech, specialty pharma and consumer health sectors, the research team at Trinity Delta covers the healthcare and life sciences sectors.

Its report on Avacta, published today, values the company using a sum-of-the-parts, which includes a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of the lead clinical asset AVA6000, an aggregate rNPV for the remainder of the proprietary platforms (pre|CISION and Affimer), and a DCF valuation for the Diagnostics business, which are netted against operating costs.

It has increased its valuation to £675m for the company, worth some 188p a share which is more than four times the current share price of 41p.

Ittybit secures £1.5m in funding round led by Mercuri and Sure Valley Ventures

Ittybit has secured £1.5m in a funding led by Mercuri and Sure Valley Ventures to help propel growth in their mission to revolutionise AI-led file management.

As online content consumption soars, there is a growing demand for managing digital files, particularly video. Salford-based Ittybit streamlines this process with tools designed to simplify the uploading, storing, and delivery of large video, image, and audio files.

Ittybit’s media management solution has delivered impressive results for early customers. Strength:Lab slashed bandwidth costs by 80%, while a major podcast transcribed over 1,000 episodes, enhancing search and recommendations.

Early adopters have successfully managed over 100,000 images and 5,000 hours of user-generated video, showcasing Ittybit’s scalability and reliability.

“Ittybit’s proprietary Machine Learning solution is transforming the costs of hosting media for both SMEs and Enterprises globally,” said Brian Kinane, Founding Partner, Sure Valley Ventures.

“We are delighted to back a Manchester-based, cutting-edge AI company who are well-positioned to execute on their mission to democratise media hosting, at a time when the innovation of multimodal large language models is enabling content creation at an unprecedented scale.”

SolGold – one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold projects sees major exploitation contract being signed off

SolGold, the developer of a world-class copper-gold project in Northern Ecuador, has announced that it has signed off a significant contract for its flagship Cascabel Project that covers an area of approximately 50 square kilometres located in Imbabura province.

It is a mineral exploration and development company, that explores for and develops mineral properties in Ecuador, Australia, Chile, and Solomon Islands, primarily exploring for copper, gold, silver, and molybdenum deposits.

The Important EC Contract

The Exploitation Contract establishes the legal and financial terms and conditions for the development of the Cascabel Project by the Brisbane, Australia-based £272m capitalised SolGold (Lon and TSX: SOLG).

It covers key contract items such as: not less than a 50% share of the benefits going to the Ecuador Government; that there will be a renewable 33-year contract for copper, gold and silver production; that SolGold will make a total of $75m royalty payments, of which $25m is an advance sum; the Government Royalty will be on net smelter revenues ranging from 3%-8% based on mineral and price; a mechanism to balance out the effects of any changes in Ecuador fiscal policy, taxes, laws and other regulations; investor protection rights; and importantly that it develops the autonomy and freedom of the company to make its commercial decisions. 

SolGold shares, which were trading at 19.20p this time last year, before easing back to 6.02p in early March this year, are currently just 9.07p.

The UK produces most Fintech Unicorns in Europe, according to Dealroom

A new report issued by Dealroom confirmed the UK produces more Fintech Unicorn companies than any other European country. Four times as many to be precise. 

The report issued by Dealroom in conjunction with Armstrong International found that the UK is a leader in creating Fintech companies that attract valuations of $1bn or more. 

The UK is home to 52 of Europe’s 121 billion-dollar Fintech companies compared to just 13 in France and 12 in the Netherlands. 

Data collected by Dealroom found European Fintechs were worth a total of $445bn compared to $433bn in 2023, but down from a high of $470bn in 2021.

A Fintech funding ecosystem of leading VCs and UK-based sophisticated individual investors has helped nurture Fintech giants, including Monzo, worth $5.4bn, and SumUp, which has raised a total of $662m in equity funding and $1.5bn in debt.

Other UK Fintech success stories include Revolut, Starling Bank, and Zopa. You will note all of the companies mentioned are yet to IPO, opting to remain private companies.

In 2023, transaction values for UK Fintechs fell to £9.75bn, down 34% from £14.82bn in 2022 amid a wider slowdown in capital markets, according to KPMG.

Still, UK Fintechs raised more than those in France, Germany, China, India, Brazil and Canada combined.

AIM movers: Pantheon Resources Alaska state deal and Jersey Oil & Gas Buchan delay

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Pantheon Resources (LON: PANR) has entered a gas sales precedent agreement with the state-owned Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, which is developing the Alaska LNG project. This is designed to supply Alaska and export up to 20 million tonnes of LNG each year. Pantheon Resources would supply up to 500 mmcf/day of gas at a maximum base price of $1/mmbtu. There are plans to increase the scale of the Ahpun development. The share price jumped 29.4% to 36.3p.

Restaurants operator Tasty (LON: TAST) gained court approval of its restructuring plan on Tuesday afternoon. Tasty has got out of the leases of 23 sites. This leaves 38 restaurants, which are predominantly the Wildwood brand. This should improve EBITDA by up to £2.1m between 2003 and 2005. The share price continued its rise today and it is up a further 29.2% to 1.55p.

Insig AI (LON: INSG) has raised a further £813,000 at 12.5p/share. New Insig AI chief executive Richard Bernstein had subscribed £100,000 at 20p/share. Insig AI recently bought a 5.45% stake in AI and blockchain company ImpactScope OU for 900,000 shares at 13.75p each and Insig Ai has an option to subscribe for more shares. The share price improved 15.7% to 14.75p.

Empire Metals (LON: EEE) considers further positive exploration results as a major development for the Pitfield prospect. There is rutile at surface, and it should be easy to mine. Titanium dioxide mineralisation gets more prevalent at lower depths. This should improve project economics. The share price increased 13.5% to 11.75p.

FALLERS

Jersey Oil & Gas (LON: JOG) has progressed its FEED programme for the Buchan development in the North Sea, but decisions have been put on hold until after the General Election. The first offshore survey has been completed. The final investment decision is expected in 2025, dependent on clarity over ongoing UK government policy, which means first oil could be in 2027. Jersey Oil & Gas contributes 20% of the joint venture project costs. The share price dipped 16.7% to 125p.

There is another fundraising by cancer biopsy company Angle (LON: AGL) is raising £8.5m at 15p/share and could raise up to £2.06m more via an open offer. The cash will be spent on additional staff, commercial development, developing lab capacity. Angle says that it should reach cash flow breakeven by the end of 2025. There was £16.2m in cash at the end of 2023. In 2023, revenues more than doubled to £2.2m and the loss was £20.1m. Interim revenues are expected to be more than £1m. The share price declined 12.5% to 15.75p.

Seed Innovations (LON: SEED) has completed its share buyback programme. This used up £510,000 on top of the £2m dividend. That followed the disposal of its Leaf Gaming stake for £2.4m. The share price declined 7.14% to 1.95p. There has been a 9.3% share price decline so far this year, but that is not adjusted for the 1p/share special dividend.

Lupus treatment developer ImmuPharma (LON: IMM) reported a reduction in loss from £4.46m to £3.42m. It has taken longer than thought to approach commercialisation of the Lupus treatment Lupuzor. There should be enough evidence to move to a phase 3 clinical study. There was cash of £200,000 at the end of 2023. ImmuPharma raised £1.5m from the sale of its shares in Aquis-quoted skincare company Incanthera, which was valued at £600,000 at the end of 2023, although it retains warrants. The share price slipped 5.36% to 2.47p.

FTSE 100 gains with eyes on European and Canadian rate cuts

The FTSE 100 gained on Wednesday as investors looked forward to the first interest rate cuts by major western central banks since the global hiking cycle started around two years ago.

The European Central Bank is widely predicted to cut interest rates at its meeting tomorrow and hopes will be this opens the doors to the Bank of England and Federal Reserve to follow suit.

London’s leading index was 0.2% higher at 8,251 at the time of writing.

“The FTSE 100 moved higher on Wednesday with a broad spread of companies across multiple sectors enjoying solid gains,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“A recent fall in oil prices may not be good news for two big energy firms which bestride the index but for others it means a potential reduction in inflationary pressures and more scope for central banks to begin easing rates.

“The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank are expected to steal a march on the Federal Reserve and Bank of England by cutting rates over the next 24 hours. The market will also weigh US employment data and a reading from the services sector across the Atlantic.”

Investor’s trading week will really heat up tomorrow, with interest rate decisions being closely followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday – the last major economic data reading before the Federal Reserve makes its interest rates decision next week.

Markets had a hint of optimism going into the announcements, and there was a clear risk-on tone to trade in UK stocks. The gains were broad on Wednesday, with many cyclical sectors enjoying a boost.

St James’s Place was again the best performer as the beleaguered wealth manager enjoyed buying pressure from bargain hunters. Bargain hunters also took a shine to GSK, gaining 1.9%, after it sank on Monday due to litigation concerns.

There was a mild bid for housebuilders ahead of the rate decisions. Persimmon added 0.6% and Taylor Wimpey rose 1.7%.

Angus Energy restarts production at Brockham well in Surrey

Angus Energy shares rose on Wednesday after the company announced that is has successfully restarted production at its Brockham Oil Field in Surrey, aligning with the company’s strategy to revive operations at the site.

In late May, Angus Energy completed the workover of the Brockham 2Y well, a crucial step in reinstating production from the field. The workover involved installing a new pump in the well and conducting repairs and upgrades to the surface equipment.

After a period of flow to clean up the well, it is now back online, producing approximately 120 barrels per day (bbls/day) of total fluid, with 40% currently consisting of oil.

Investors should note Angus Energy said they will closely monitor the well’s performance over the coming days to assess its future production potential.

Angus Energy has a 80% interest in the Brockham Oil Field.

“As we stated in our last strategic update, Angus intends to expand production through organic and inorganic growth. This is the first step of that journey. We are very pleased with our progress at the Brockham Field to resume production,” said Richard Herbert, Angus Energy CEO.

“The workover was completed safely and on schedule and budget, with the new pump starting up on the 28th May. The well is now producing oil in excess of management’s predicted flowrates and with the present surface configuration is expected to sustain 30-40 bbls/day of oil, with potential to increase further with operational improvements.”

Angus Energy shares were 6% higher at the time of writing.

WH Smith shares rise as travel boom boosts sales

The travel boom has far-reaching benefits, and the propensity for holidaymakers to spend freely on holidays and their holiday experience has helped increase WH Smith sales.

WH Smith’s UK travel unit sales rose 9% in the 13 weeks to 1 June as the business transitions to being a ‘one-stop-shop’ for travel essentials for which it can charge a premium.

Anyone who has reluctantly bought a bottle of water from WH Smith at an airport will have a good idea of the company’s strategy. WH Smith has successfully placed stores in locations where potential customers have little option but to pay the higher price they demand. In addition to airports, WH Smith has targeted rail terminals, where sales rose 8%, and hospitals. Hospital sales surged 14%.

North American sales grew 3% while Rest of the World jumped 15%.

In the UK High Street division, which includes online sales, total revenue was down 4% for the 13 weeks ending June 1, 2024. However, the store network performed well, with LFL revenue flat compared to the same period last year.

Five new Toys “R” Us shop-in-shops have been successfully opened within existing stores and plans are in place to open an additional 25 shop-in-shops by the end of the financial year.

“What’s really interesting is how WH Smith is helping to revive the Toys R Us brand. It is slowly converting parts of its UK stores to house sections dedicated to toys under this retro name and it looks like the strategy is paying off,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

The company has maintained guidance for the year and says it is well positioned for the peak summer trading period.

WH Smith shares were 3% higher at the time of writing on Wednesday.

Bond Funds to consider for your portfolio

Bonds currently offer great value for long-term investors when compared to equities, and the prospect of falling interest rates later this year reinforces the favourable timing of increasing exposure to the fixed-income market.

The thesis is simple. Current market yields are trading very near long-term averages and central banks look set to cut interest rates. When you throw in the frothy valuations of equity markets, it’s very difficult to argue against including a decent bond fund in your portfolio.

There are various options available to investors, and for those new to fixed-income assets, the bond market may be off-putting. It needn’t be.

Investors will first need to choose geographical exposure. Do you want exposure to the US, Europe, the UK, or even emerging markets?

Our selections focus on the UK and the US because their yields offer better value and are inherently less risky than those of other jurisdictions. Emerging market bonds will have their time, but the value just isn’t there at the moment.

Once the geographical decision has been made, the next choice is the vehicle and fund management mandate. If you would like to gain greater diversification and employ the expertise of a fund manager, a unit trust or OEIC is the way forward. 

For the more tactical investor happy with their convictions, an ETF or a selection of ETFs may be the best option. 

Bond ETFs

The iShares 20+ year US Treasury Euro hedges ETF (DLTE) and SPDR Bloomberg 15+ Year Gilt UCITS ETF (GLTL) will do an excellent job of providing exposure to long-dated bonds as interest rates are cut.

Long-dated bonds are more sensitive to changes in interest rates and can be more volatile than short-dated bonds. Volatility often has negative connotations, but for the purpose of these selections, we look at volatility favourably. When interest rates eventually fall – and fall they will – the capital appreciation potential for long-dated bond ETFs becomes very interesting. 

You’re locking in a yield of above 4% with the chance of 10%-20% capital growth, depending on how far interest rates fall. 

The big risk to the value of these ETFs – as it is with all government-issued bonds – is the return of inflation. Should inflation start to heat up, bond yields will rise, and their value will depreciate as the market prices in higher interest rates. In this scenario, the value of the ETFs will fall, but you will have locked in your yield. 

The likelihood is both the US and UK move to cut rates at a similar time, although there may be minor differences in the timing. For example, the Bank of England is facing a much tougher economy in the UK than the Federal Reserve is, so there’s a good chance the BoE cuts first. One must also consider the extent to which the Federal Reserve and Bank of England cut rates. 

Owning a spread will even out the gyrations and protect against one moving more slowly or not as far as the other. 

M&G Optimal Income Fund

For investors seeking a little more depth in their exposure to bonds, the £1.5bn M&G Optimal Income Fund OEIC is a solid option.

The M&G team behind the M&G Optimal Income Fund, headed by Richard Woolnough, prides itself on doing things differently. Woolnough points out that many bond funds tread a very well-worn path, and it’s difficult to see any variation in what they do. This leads to mediocre returns over the long term compared to the benchmark.

The M&G Optimal Income Fund’s approach has returned 7.7% over the past year compared to a benchmark return of 4.9%. The fund’s current yield to maturity net of fees is 5.1%.

The fund invests in both government and corporate bonds, providing investors with higher yields than they may otherwise achieve in government bonds only.

This does present a higher risk profile, but the fund’s active management style brings with it decades of experience from managers who have successfully navigated and learnt from major risk events in bond markets, including the European bond crisis of 2010 – 2012 and 2014’s oil crisis. 

The team at M&G carefully alters allocations to government bonds, investment-grade corporate bonds, and high-yield corporate bonds (higher risk) in line with their views of the world.

As of 30 April, the fund was overweight government bonds compared to the benchmark as the managers looked to exploit the deep value in government bonds after the interest rate hiking cycle. The fund was also overweight generally more reliable investment-grade corporate bonds and underweight the riskier end of the corporate bond universe.

The current composition offers plentiful exposure to any revaluation in government bonds while providing diversification across the world’s leading corporates.

Eight reasons why the British ISA is a bad idea by AJ Bell

When the British ISA was announced by Jeremy Hunt at the recent budget it was met with mixed reviews.

Some liked the idea of encouraging more investment in UK stocks, while others lambasted the proposal as illogical and unlikely to succeed.

The move was part of the government’s efforts to rejuvenate the UK’s financial markets, alongside other initiatives such as the sale of NatWest shares. The NatWest share sale has been canned ahead of the general election and now the future of the British ISA hangs in balance.

Many within the industry think the British ISA is a nonstarter. Here are Eight reasons why AJ Bell’s director of public policy, Tom Selby, thinks it’s a bad idea, in his own words: 

  1. Additional complexity risks deterring potential new ISA investors

“The extra complexity created by any British ISA will inevitably cause confusion, particularly among potential new investors. AJ Bell research shows the complexity of the current landscape – where there are already six versions of ISAs – acts as a barrier to investing and risks undermining the successful ISA brand.

“Despite 71% of UK adults saying they are familiar with ISAs, fewer than a third (29%) know the current adult ISA allowance is £20,000. This falls further for women to 26% and further still for young adults aged 18-34 (19%). 

“Furthermore, half (49%) of UK adults think the different versions of ISAs make them too complicated. Although Cash ISAs had some recognition, fewer than half of UK adults could recognise the other types.  

“Financial advisers have similar concerns. AJ Bell research shows the vast majority of financial advisers support ISA simplification. Two-thirds (65%) believed unnecessary complexity had crept into the ISA market, and 8 in 10 (77%) thought this was down to ‘too many variants and names’ for ISA products.” 

  1. The impact on UK capital markets will be extremely limited

“While the aims of the British ISA – namely boosting UK capital markets and ultimately economic growth – are laudable, the policy simply will not achieve its stated purpose. The main ISA product already enables people to invest in UK companies in a tax efficient manner. Therefore, the only people who would have any need for a British ISA are those that regularly utilise all of their annual ISA allowance. Even if every person who subscribes £20,000 to a Stocks and Shares ISA were to open a British ISA and invest the full £5,000 allowance, it would generate a maximum of £4 billion a year for UK equities. In the context of a £2 trillion+ UK stock market, this is a drop in the ocean in relative terms.”

  1. Behavioural shifts will further dampen any boost to UK Plc

“In reality, the impact will likely be much smaller. Not all investors who subscribe £20,000 a year to their ISA will use the product, and many investors who do will adjust their asset allocation in the rest of their portfolio to maintain the same overall UK exposure.”

  1. The consumer harm risk

“The negative impact of extra complexity isn’t the only material consumer risk posed by the British ISA. Independent research commissioned by AJ Bell* shows that, when presented with the choice of a British ISA and a Stocks and Shares ISA for their first subscription of the tax year, more people chose the British ISA (35%) than the Stocks and Shares ISA (26%). Given investors could access a much wider range of investments in a Stocks and Shares ISA – allowing greater global diversification – choosing a British ISA for your first subscription would almost certainly be unwise. Under Consumer Duty, providers would therefore inevitably be required to deliver warnings to customers to mitigate the risk of foreseeable harm.”

*Based on a nationally representative survey of 2,000 UK adults carried out online on behalf of AJ Bell by Opinium between 7 and 10 May 2024.

  1. How exactly would ‘UK’ be defined in a British ISA?

“To create a British ISA, government will have to decide what qualifies as a ‘UK’ investment. This should be relatively simple for direct equities on listed stock exchanges but becomes much more difficult for collective investment vehicles like funds and investment trusts. In the original consultation document, the government suggested the ‘Personal Equity Plan’ regime from the 1990s could be used, with only funds which invest at least 75% in UK holdings qualifying.

“If this model were adopted, there would need to be a mechanism in place to monitor allocations to UK companies/funds. Where an investment in a British ISA becomes non-qualifying, HMRC would need to decide on the approach taken in relation to that investment. If this monitoring process is overly onerous, product providers may simply decide any British ISA is not worth the hassle.

“Government will also need to make a decision in relation to the policy intent. If the aim of the British ISA is primarily to boost UK stock markets, such as the London Stock Exchange, then it may want to allow listed instruments, including Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and investment trusts, to qualify for British ISAs. However, many of these vehicles – and indeed many major listed businesses – have a limited stake in the UK. 

“The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, the largest investment trust on the market and a FTSE 100 member, holds just 3.2% in UK listed shares. Equally, Antofagasta, a London listed copper mining company, conducts most of its business in Chile. It is hard to make the case for including either of these companies in the British ISA while excluding the other.

“However, if investment trusts and UK equities on qualifying indices are deemed to qualify for a British ISA, one could make the argument that it would be unfair not to include similar investment funds that are not listed on an exchange. Given the challenges in identifying qualifying investments for a British ISA, it would be significantly simpler to increase the overall ISA allowance to £25,000, which would likely achieve very similar outcomes.” 

  1. Should investors be allowed to transfer out of a British ISA?

“In an ideal world, if a British ISA is to be introduced, it would be slotted seamlessly into the existing ISA framework, with similar rules on subscriptions and transferability. However, the additional £5,000 overall annual subscription limit granted through the British ISA means allowing transfers out would leave the system open to being gamed.

“Savers could, for example, simply max out their British ISA subscription and then transfer their funds to a Stocks and Shares ISA, thus benefitting from a £25,000 overall subscription limit (rather than the usual £20,000 for a Stocks and Shares ISA), without ever having to expose a certain amount of their funds to UK investments.

“It is therefore hard to conceive of a situation where transfers out of a British ISA are allowed.”

  1. Should investors be allowed to transfer into a British ISA?

“This creates a further challenge in relation to transfers into a British ISA. If transfers were allowed into British ISAs from other types of ISA but savers were barred from transferring out of the UK ISA world, there is potential for consumer detriment. For example, if an investor chose to transfer their entire Stocks and Shares ISA portfolio to a British ISA, they would effectively be locked into the British ISA. As consolidation is often a key reason for transferring existing ISAs, this is not an unrealistic scenario.

“Given exactly the same investments in a British ISA would already have been available to the investor in their Stocks and Shares ISA – not to mention a range of non-UK investments which could help them diversify their portfolio – this is unlikely to be a ‘good outcome’ and could potentially be viewed as ‘foreseeable harm’. Allowing transfers to British ISAs from other types of ISA would therefore risk undermining the FCA’s Consumer Duty.”

  1. The cash conundrum

“Given the aim of the British ISA is to funnel investors towards UK-listed companies and funds, the government is understandably keen to discourage people using the vehicle to hold cash. Proposals put forward in the consultation include banning the payment of interest on cash or taxing cash interest payments.

“Having different rules regarding the payment of interest on cash for British ISA investors versus other ISA investors risks creating unnecessary complexity and undermining the core principles of the FCA’s Consumer Duty regulations. Regulated firms are also already required to give warnings to customers who hold large amounts of cash over a certain period of time.”