And there goes 8,300. Another technical milestone for the equity bulls was easily overcome as the FTSE 100 continued to march higher.

The FTSE 100 set another all-time intraday high of 8,311 in early trade on Tuesday before dipping to trade at 8,299 at the time of writing.

“The FTSE 100 has scaled fresh heights as buds of May hope unfurl about interest rate cuts on the horizon. The blue-chip index smashed through the 8300 mark in early trade as the feel-good factor around London-listed stocks continued,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

The index has consistently broken to record highs in recent weeks, reminiscent of how the S&P 500 made fresh highs throughout last year’s AI boom.

Of course, the factors at play are very different, but this will be of little concern in the short term, with London’s markets playing catch-up with overseas peers. 

Indeed, the economic influences on stocks this morning may have longer-term ramifications for equities. Yet, a big miss in the US Non-Farm Payrolls last week, and slower UK retail sales and patchy house price data all feed the narrative the Bank of England and Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates to support the economy before long. 

Concerns were creeping in that both major central banks would push their first rate cuts into 2025. Data over the last week has dispelled this notion, and stocks have reacted accordingly.

“Rising another 1.1% as post-Bank Holiday trading gets underway, the FTSE 100 is now up 2% so far in May and 7.4% year-to-date. That’s quite a performance given we’re not even at the halfway point in the year. Add in returns from dividends on top and it’s easy to see why more investors might finally have rekindled their interest in the UK stock market,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

The FTSE 100 gains were broad on Tuesday, with 89 of the 100 constituents trading positively at the time of writing.

Although the Halifax House Price Index released on Tuesday shows big disparities across different regions, the trend for UK property prices is definitely going in the right direction, which helped spark a rally in the housebuilders.

“Housebuilders were among the stocks in demand after British house prices returned to growth, albeit only by a fraction. Halifax data gave hope that the property market was getting up on its feet after a soggy patch, enticing investors to look at names such as Persimmon and Barratt,” Russ Mould said.

Persimmon was 3.4% higher at the time of writing, and Barratt Developments gained 2.4%.

Ocado had a good showing as the lower interest rate narrative helped boost the stock due to its technology credentials. DCC was the FTSE 100’s best performer with a 4.5% gain after Deutsche Bank rated the stock a ‘buy’.

The headline corporate update came from BP and a massive fall in profits in Q1 2024 compared to Q1 2023. Lower oil prices have ravaged the bottom line, but there was a bright spot for investors in a share buyback, preventing any significant share price declines.

“Consistency quarter to quarter seems to be tough to achieve for BP at the moment with a missed forecast in Q1 following on from a very strong update last time out to round off 2023,” said Adam Vettese, analyst at investment platform eToro.

“Lower energy prices and weaker fuels margin are to blame for the slump. Investors will be pleased to see this miss will not affect the buyback programme and the dividend is being held steady.”

Last week we stayed positive overall on the S&P 500 seeing a move back towards the 5200 area as the most likely outlook, so the past few days trading has been largely in line.

The issue now is that the RSI has managed to recover to such an extent that it is now back to the previous break levels, black line on chart. Price also may start to struggle as it approaches the 5150, as this was the break area just a fortnight ago.

So how price behaves around the 5150 area could prove to be quite instructive for the rest of the month. A confident push higher will allow many of these concerns to be quickly allayed and confidence will build for a push back to fresh all-time highs. Whereas failure to push the 5150 at the first attempt will lift concerns amongst the bears that all of the recent price action has been nothing but a minor leg higher within a more meaningful correction.

Despite the coincidence of a number of technical resistances we still are skewed to the positive, and expect the broad 100 period trend, red region on graph, to continue to contain much of the price action in the days ahead Keeping a positive skew for next week, on the caveat that traders may need to be cautious as a rapid move back towards the 5000 area is quite possible on any minor scares, which could be more rapid than usual. But we would not expect the tone to turn bearish overall until/unless the recent lows around 4955 were to be broken.

BP shares were marginally weaker on Tuesday after the oil majors announced Q1 profits materially below the same period a year ago.

Oil and gas majors operate in a highly cyclical industry, which was demonstrated today in the BP earnings update. The company experienced a huge increase in earnings after Russia invaded Ukraine as oil prices soared. With the war now in its third year, oil prices have adjusted to the downside, and BP’s earnings have followed suit.

The big highlight for investors was the fresh buyback, which offset some of the disappointment around lower earnings.  

“BP’s proving it can splash the cash to shareholders even in a lower pricing environment. Underlying profit is down across all divisions but the first half buy back target of $3.5bn remains, with a $1.75bn tranche announced today,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

The replacement cost profit of $1.6bn in Q1 2024 was higher than in Q4 2023 but a major downgrade from the $8.7bn generated in Q1 2023.

In the past, share buybacks have been enough to inspire a rally in companies amid lacklustre earnings. This was not the case for BP on Tuesday, and shares were down 0.4% at the time of writing.

Investors will note the company’s defensive undertones with a plan to save $2bn annually by the end of 2026. This clearly isn’t a company expecting a huge level of top-line growth over that period. 

The underlying price of oil and gas is undoubtedly the biggest driver of BP’s earnings. That said, investors may be encouraged to see that despite BP being an established operator, new assets coming online can help increase production and can have an impact on earnings. The world’s view of fossil fuel exploration is softening with the realisation oil and gas will play an important part in the energy transition and investors will look forward to updates on BP exploration programme and possible additions to BP’s production in the years to come.

“Commodity prices are out of BP’s control but where it can make a difference it is,” Nathan said.

“There’s a new plan to deliver cost savings of at least $2bn by the end of 2026 and some of the effects of lower prices have been offset by increased production. Theres new production on stream in the Caspian Sea as well as onshore United States in the Permian basin. There’s also development activity in the North Sea and exploration in Africa.”

Many investors will invest in BP for its dividend. Despite lower earnings, there’s nothing to suggest this dividend is under threat. 

To get ‘the best bang for your buck’ must be the most important need for companies marketing themselves across the globe. 

And that is just where Ebiquity (LON:EBQ) comes in. 

Over 70 of the world’s top 100 advertisers select the group as their trusted independent media adviser. 

This morning the £56m capitalised company reported its final results for the year to the end of December 2023, showing a 23.4% profit increase on the back of a just 6.8% better turnover. 

The figures and current year outlook should be good enough for investors to realise how under-rated its shares are at the current 41p. 

The Business 

The group provides media consultancy and investment analysis services in the UK, Ireland, North America, Continental Europe, and the Asia Pacific.  

It offers analysis and advisory services in the areas of media management, media performance, marketing effectiveness, technology advisory, and contract compliance services. 

Its set of technologies harness the power of data to provide independent, fact-based advice, enabling brand owners to perfect media investment decisions and improve business outcomes.  

The company is a data-driven solutions company helping brand owners drive efficiency and effectiveness from their media spend, eliminating wastage and creating value. 

Final Results 

For the 2023-year group revenue is reported to have grown by 6.8% to £80.2m (£75.1m), while adjusted EBIT improved by an impressive 31% to £12.0m (£9.2m). 

The group’s adjusted pre-tax profit was 23.4% better at £9.7m (£7.9m), while earnings were up 21.1% at 9.7p (7.9p) per share. 

CEO Nick Waters stated that: 

“We delivered a solid performance in 2023, expanding relationships with clients, progressing our business transformation programme and continuing to build scale in the US, the world’s largest advertising market. 

Despite the more challenging market conditions the business has shown great resilience, increasing revenue and delivering a strong operating margin performance at 15.0%, an improvement of 2.8 percentage points from 12.2% in 2022.  

This reflects the operating efficiencies we have achieved so far as part of our transformation programme and cost management, as well as continuing growth in our higher margin Digital Media Solutions business.” 

Current Year Outlook 

2024 will be an important year for the group’s transformation, as it continues to enhance its use of technology, while changing its operating model and improving its ways of working.   

These measures will help to further improve the group’s client service, to ensure greater efficiency and increase its medium and long-term profitability, giving its management confidence to expect further profitable progress in 2024. 

Broker’s View – 71p Price Objective 

Analyst Caspar Erskine at Liberum Capital has rated the group’s shares as a Buy, having set a Price Objective of 71p per share. 

His estimates for the 2024 results could see £85m revenues, £11.5m profits and 6.2p earnings. 

For 2025 he has already pencilled in £89m turnover, £14.0m profits and 7.6p earnings per share. 

A consensus of three brokers following the company suggests that the average Price Objective is 92p per share. 

My View – At Least 50% Upside 

It was only two years ago that this group’s shares were trading at 71.50p. 

By early February this year they had eased back to 31p, since when they have recovered to the current 41p level. 

Considering the profits being predicted by brokers over the next couple of years as the group adheres to its strategic growth, its equity is massively undervalued at just £56m, especially when one realises that it could be producing profits of £14.0m by the end of next year. 

I would estimate that the shares of Ebiquity could well rise 50% in due course and still look attractively priced.