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FTSE 100 jumps as UK inflation falls back, housebuilders soar

London’s flagship index jumped on Wednesday after UK CPI inflation fell to 2.5% in December from 2.6% in the month prior, and investors celebrated the potential impact on interest rates.

Even though inflation is still well above the 2% base rate, the simple fact that inflation halted its ascent sent a wave of optimism through UK assets after a gloomy start to the year.

UK stocks rose, bond yields fell, and the pound showed signs of stabilisation.

The FTSE 100 surged 0.7% higher, led by UK and interest rate-sensitive sectors, including housebuilders and utility companies. Even the banks joined the rally.

“A surprise pullback in the rate of inflation has given joy to investors,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“It strengthens the argument for the Bank of England to continue cutting interest rates and that’s fired up shares in housebuilders in the hope that mortgage rates will go down and more people will be able to afford to get onto the housing ladder. Banking shares jumped on the prospect of more demand in the mortgage market.

“The inflation reading has also helped to lower bond yields, with the 10-year gilt easing back a little to 4.841%, which will be welcomed with open arms by the under-fire chancellor, Rachel Reeves. However, the prospect of higher costs for companies this year still threatens to drive up inflation if they decide to raise prices, which means people’s living standards won’t suddenly improve because of today’s inflation reading.”

Although many problems still persist for the UK economy, there was little ill feeling in UK equities on Wednesday.

Barratt Redow, Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon jumped around 3%, while Howden Joinery added 3.6% in the hope lower inflation would spur building activity.

Lloyds was 3.5% as investors chose to focus on the financial health of Lloyds customer base instead of how interest rates could impact key profitability and income margins.

Diploma was the top riser, up 3.6%, after reporting organic revenue growth of 7% and maintaining full-year guidance.

There were few losers on Wednesday. Precious metals miners felt the pressure off improving sentiment while a broker downgrade hit Anglo American.

Tekcapital’s Guident appoints investment banker for IPO as the AV sector builds momentum

Tekcapital portfolio company Guident has announced the appointment of a US investment bank to conduct a private placement for the autonomous vehicle technology company ahead of a potential NASDAQ IPO later this year.

The investment bank will conduct both the private placement and the IPO raise.

“We are very pleased to have appointed an investment banker,” said Harald Braun, Executive Chairman of Guident.

“The AV industry is rapidly developing, and we believe that teleoperations is critical for the safe roll out of vehicles and robots. The adoption of autonomous vehicles globally is accelerating, and Guident welcomes the accompanying regulatory developments that put the safety of passengers and the public at the forefront of autonomous vehicle rollouts.”

Teleoperations are crucial to meeting many US states’ safety requirements, which stipulate autonomous vehicles must be able to be remotely controlled by a human operator in the case of any mishaps.

Meeting these requirements is a prerequisite to the roll-out of autonomous vehicles in states including California, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Louisiana.

Tekcapital is yet to provide any insight into Guident’s potential valuation on a successful NASDAQ listing. However, the AV sector is attracting billions in investment, with investors prepared to provide funding at rich valuations to secure a piece of exciting early-stage AV companies.

WeRide’s initial public offering, combined with a concurrent private placement, generated $458.5 million in proceeds. Meanwhile, Waymo LLC has completed its largest funding round to date, securing $5.6 billion from investors. Pony.ai raised $260m at a valuation of over $5bn.

The weight of evidence from recent transactions and the revenue multiples investors committed their cash at suggests Guident could prove to be the jewel in Tekcapital’s crown with a valuation potentially many times Tekcapital’s current market cap.

Why retail investment trust investors must vote against activist Saba Capital with Keystone’s Karen Brade

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome Karen Brade, Chair of the Keystone Positive Change Investment Trust, to discuss why retail investors must vote against opportunistic and cynical plans by Saba Capital to take control of seven investment trusts.

Saba Capital has launched an attack against seven investment trusts by requisitioning meetings in an effort to take control of the board and impose their own investment strategies.

Visit the UK Investor Magazine Investment Trust Centre here.

The trusts subject to requisition are Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income, Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust, Henderson Opportunities Trust, Herald Investment Trust, Keystone Positive Change Investment Trust and the European Smaller Companies Trust.

Karen details the steps Keystone has taken to engage with Saba Capital and the disingenuous tactics employed by the US Hedge Fund in the run-up to requisitioning the removal of investment trust boards.

We explore the potential consequences for investors if Saba is successful and the importance of retail investors voting against requisition proposals.

AIM movers: Fiinu secures first Plugin Overdraft customer and Distil sales slump

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Fintech Fiinu (LON: BANK) has signed heads of agreement for the first white-label deal for its Plugin Overdraft with a UK bank. It will provide a Banking-as-a-Service platform including Plugin Overdraft and requires regulatory approval and testing. The bank will have exclusivity in the UK for 12-months from launch, which could be in the fourth quarter of 2025. There will be royalty fees based on profit generated by the bank from the Plugin Overdraft. The share price soared 630.8% to 4.75p.

Video games distributor Frontier Developments (LON: FDEV) reported interims ahead of expectations. Revenues were 1% lower at £47.3m and it moved back into profit. Cash increased to £27.2m. Underlying pre-tax profit was £2.6m, compared with a £12.1m loss. Planet Coaster 2 generated more than £10m in revenues in its first month on sale. The forecast full year loss has been cut from £5.4m to £3.9m. The share price rebounded 25.1% to 231.5p.

GoldStone Resources (LON: GRL) continues to ramp up production at Homase mine and heap leach operation in south west Ghana. It expects to maintain a production rate of 48,000 tonnes/month of agglomerated stacked ore. Gold production should reach 1,000 ounces/month in the first quarter. The share price rose 8.51% to 1.275p.

Clean fuel technology developer Quadrise (LON: QED) says that its first licence revenues will be received by the end of January. This will come from the deal with Valkor, which has secured minimum project finance of at least $15m for a plant to produce MSAR and bioMSAR fuels. This triggers an initial $350,000 and a further $650,000 on 1 December.  There are other payments also expected. From April, Valkor has agreed to make a quarterly payment of $75,000 for services. The share price improved 8.31% to 6.65p.

FALLERS

Distil (LON: DIS) has extended its distribution partnership with Global Brands for all UK trade in its spirits brands from 15 February. The existing deal with Marussia Beverages will end. This comes after a 59% decline in revenues to £233,000 in the quarter to December 2024. Customers have been cautious in their buying and retail sales have declined. Distil is working with Global Brands to improve sales in the current quarter. The share price slumped 28.9% to 0.08p.

Cross-border payment services provider Finseta (LON: FIN) says 2024 EBITDA will be £2m compared to a forecast of £1.9m. There was £2.2m of cash generated from operating activities. The benefits from investment in the business and new products will show through in 2025. The share price declined 19.7% to 35p.

Diagnostics developer Oxford BioDynamics (LON: OBD) has raised £7m at 0.5p/share a retail offer could raise a further £500,000. The cash will finance the commercial development of the EpiSwitch product line. There will be a focus on partnerships and licensing deals. There will be a restructuring of the company to make the cash last longer. The fundraising is dependent on a capital restructuring to reduce the nominal value of shares from 1p to 0.1p, so that the shares can be issued at 0.5p each. The cash should last 12 months. The share price fell 4.5% to 0.573p.

Telecoms infrastructure products developer Filtronic (LON: FTC) has appointed David Marshall as director of programmes to ensure their efficient delivery. Sarah Shaw becomes General Counsel to manage commercial contracts and other legal affairs. This follows yesterday’s positive trading statement that led to Cavendish upgrading its 2024-25 pre-tax profit forecast from £9.6m to £11.5m. The share price dipped 2.45% to 99.5p, but it is still more than 10% higher this week.

Vistry shares surge as revised profit guidance reaffirmed

Vistry shares rose on Wednesday after the house builder said they were on track to meet recently reduced profit guidance, providing hope that the worst of the cost miscalculation saga is behind them. 

Stripping out the impact of provisions for underestimating the costs at a number of their sites, Vistry had a fairly reasonable year. Completions are set to rise 7% to 17,200, and revenues are projected to increase 9% to £4.4bn.

However, the problems with Vistry haven’t been the sales; it’s been with the management of costs that investors will still have reservations about despite the upbeat assessment of sales and completion activities.

“After delivering three consecutive profit downgrades in the three months prior, Vistry has finally broken its streak of bad news. The trading update wraps up a truly disastrous 2024 for the group, where despite new home completions and revenue rising, profits have been on a downward spiral,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“That’s largely down to the group’s strategy shift to a Partnerships-only model, where it teams up with local authorities and housing associations.”

“These partners foot most of the bill, freeing up Vistry to deploy its cash on more projects. That’s seen the group chase faster-than-average growth, but a series of managerial missteps and accounting issues that have led to profit downgrades have raised serious questions about the new structure and internal controls.”

UK inflation falls throwing Reeves a lifeline

UK inflation fell to 2.5% in December as service inflation fell amid a cooling of the economy just as the media started questioning how long Rachel Reeves has left before Starmer gives her the boot.

The chancellor has been thrown a lifeline in the form of falling inflation, which will help settle financial markets and ease the pressure on government debt.

The reading of 2.5% CPI inflation in December is a reduction from 2.6% in November.

“Policymakers and treasury officials will be breathing a small sigh of relief as new data shows that inflation fell during the final month of 2024, beating market expectations,” said Scott Gardner, investment strategist at Nutmeg.

“While it might be odd to be welcoming above target inflation, these results have grown in significance after an unstable start to the year for the pound and government borrowing. In the lead up to this release, it was clear that markets could not afford any surprises after a troubling period which saw UK assets hit by fears of low economic growth and persistent inflation. This data will hopefully allay some of those concerns.”

Interest rate traders quickly priced in more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year, which followed through into a rally in interest rate-sensitive equities in early trade.

Falling core inflation, one of the most closely watched metrics by the Bank of England, alleviated some fears UK borrowing rates would remain elevated for most of this year.

“Most importantly for the BoE, core CPI fell and services inflation cooled down to lowest since March 2022,” said Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst at investment platform eToro.

Share Tip: Hunting – Brokers still looking for sales and profits to advance this year and next, making the shares very good value, brokers looking for 600p against current 345p 

Yesterday morning Hunting (LON:HTG) issued its Trading Update for the year to end-December 2024 – it was very well received in the market, with investors taking its shares up 52p to 352.50p at one stage, before ending the day at 345p. 

So that already shows a good performance from the feature made last Friday when the shares were 303.50p – much as predicted in being a pivotal price move. 

The £550m capitalised precision engineering group noted that trading in Q4 2024 had remained in line with management's expectations and with the guidance issued in October 2024, with EBITDA a...

AIM movers: Trellus Health partners with Johnson & Johnson and Thruvision strategic review

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Digital healthcare platform developer Trellus Health (LON: TRLS) has entered an agreement with Johnson & Johnson Health Care Systems Inc for a US pilot programme for Trellus Elevate to support severe inflammatory bowel disease. Trellus Health will receive an upfront licence fee and a monthly fee. Net cash was $8m at the end of June 2024 and the additional income could help to extend the cash runway nearer to the end of 2025. The share price jumped 416.7% to 3.1p, which is the highest it has been for nine months.

MyHealthChecked (LON: MHC) says that its phlebotomy test kits have been registered in the UK and EU. This is a step in commercialising the company’s phlebotomy service during the first half of 2025. The share price increased 15.4% to 15p.

Woundcare company Advanced Medical Solutions (LON: AMS) says there has been strong growth across the product portfolio and recent acquisitions are being integrated. The 2024 pre-tax profit is expected to be in the range of £29.2m to £29.7m. The share price improved 11.6% to 212.75p.

Oriole Resources (LON: ORR) says phase 5 diamond drilling programme at the Bibemi gold project in Cameroon is ongoing with more results expected. The maiden drilling programme at Mbe gold project in Cameroon commenced at the end of 2024. Initial results are expected later in this quarter. A joint venture agreement is being drafted for the Senala gold project in Senegal. The share price rose 9.5% to 0.26p.

FALLERS

Thruvision (LON: THRU) shares slumped 53.9% to 3p after the security technology supplier announced a strategic review. Management believes that additional funding will be required to scale up the business. There is currently cash of £1.5m, which will last until May unless potential orders are secured. The cost base will be assessed. Alternatives include bringing in a partner or selling the business.

Broadcast technology developer Pebble Beach Systems (LON: PEB) says trading has been tough and Cavendish has cut its 2024 forecast revenues by 14% to £11.5m, which is 7% lower than the previous year. Flat revenues are forecast for the next two years. Pre-tax profit is set to fall from £1.7m to £1.1m in 2024 before recovering to £1.9m in 2025. Cash generation is the focus, and net debt should decline to £1.2m at the end of 2025. The share price declined 18% to 8p.

Gfinity (LON: GFIN) returned from suspension yesterday afternoon following the publication of 2023-24 results and the share price is continuing to fall today. The first stage of transformation is complete. The share price dipped 15.3% to 0.0525p and it is 30% lower since trading restarted.

Michael Ashcroft wants data and information publisher Merit Group (LON: MRIT) to leave AIM. This follows his success in persuading Jaywing (LON: JWNG) to back his AIM cancellation plan. He owns 42% of Merit Group, so he has a high chance of success. A general meeting will be set within 21 days. The share price fell 13.1% to 26.5p.

The estate of William Black has taken the opportunity to increase its stake in downhole oil and gas technology developer Enteq Technologies (LON: NTQ) from 17% to 21.8% following the slump in the share price due to delays testing of the SABER rotary tool. Even so, the share price slipped a further 6.25% to 0.825p.

FTSE 100 ticks marginally higher as housebuilders rise

The FTSE 100 made small gains on Tuesday as UK bond market volatility decreased and upbeat corporate earnings trumped negative ones, helping drive stocks higher.

London’s leading index was 0.1% at the time of writing as housebuilders rose and offset losses in BP and JD Sports. It wouldn’t be a surprise if gains turned to losses in the afternoon, with the bid ebbing as the session progressed.

“The FTSE 100 held firm despite headwinds from BP warning of lower production and weak refining markets and Reinet Investments selling an approximate 2% stake in cigarette-to-vaping group British American Tobacco,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The warning from BP sours the recent recovery in its share price after a prolonged weak spell. Concern about the global economy puts a cloud over oil demand this year and BP’s latest update continues its bad run for news, having suffered impairments and warned of weak refining margins last year.

“Investors often think BP and its peers are well-oiled machines, pumping out oil and gas with ease and doling out endless dividends and share buybacks. In reality, they operate in a high-risk environment with unpredictable earnings.”

BP shares slipped 2.4%.

Persimmon was the top riser after announcing a 7% increase in completions and rising average sales prices. Investors were evidently pleased that the strong performance led the board to guide profit before tax at the top end of the range for the full year as shares rose by over 5%.

“Persimmon’s 2024 trading round-up showed it’s sitting on solid ground, despite the group having faced its fair share of struggles in recent years,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“From their peak, both volumes and operating margins have fallen much harder than the broader sector. But Persimmon looks to have turned a corner. New home completions and average selling prices both exceeded market expectations, up around 7% and 5% respectively last year, as buyer demand was consistently higher throughout 2024. That’s given the group a solid platform to build on over the rest of 2025.”

Persimmon, like many listed housebuilders, has experienced a slow rot in its share price over the past year, and today’s news has provided a catalyst for a bounce off key support around the 1,000p.

Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Redow rose in sympathy and helped carve out gains for the FTSE 100.

JD Sports fell 8% and was the FTSE 100’s biggest faller after further reducing their profit guidance amid challenging trading conditions.

“JD Shareholders have had a tough 12 months as it is, and unfortunately this morning’s update has added more fuel to the fire. The company has warned on profit, bringing the top end of guidance down by 100 million amid challenging and volatile conditions,” said Adam Vettese, market analyst at investment platform eToro.

“It’s seems the supermarkets were the exception rather than the rule when it comes to retail performance over this past Christmas, as JD struggled in November and December, dashing any hopes of saving an already poor year.”

Persimmon shares jump as completions rise

Persimmon shares rose on Tuesday after the housebuilder released a positive assessment of full-year trading, with the number of completions and average house sales prices rising as the group made investments for the future.

Persimmon has gone a long way in distancing itself from the pessimistic narrative surrounding the UK residential property market by posting a 7% increase in completions and profit before tax that is set to be towards the upper end of expectations.

Persimmon shares were 4% higher at the time of writing.

Persimmon has delivered 10,664 homes, a 7% increase from the previous year, and a 18% rise in private home completions to 9,075, with a slight increase in private average selling price to £287,150. The blended average selling price across all properties rose 5% to £268,500, reflecting improved market conditions and favorable sales mix.

Net private sales per outlet per week increased 21% to 0.70, supported by a network of 270 active outlets. Forward sales reached £1.15bn, up 8% from the previous year, with private forward sales increasing 31% to £653m.

The company expects full-year underlying profit before tax for 2024 to be around the upper end of market expectations, ranging from £349m to £390m.

The upbeat sales number may just be enough to help Persimmon shares rebound from around the 1,000p mark, where it found strong support in late 2023.

“Persimmon’s 2024 trading round-up showed it’s sitting on solid ground, despite the group having faced its fair share of struggles in recent years. From their peak, both volumes and operating margins have fallen much harder than the broader sector,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“But Persimmon looks to have turned a corner. New home completions and average selling prices both exceeded market expectations, up around 7% and 5% respectively last year, as buyer demand was consistently higher throughout 2024. That’s given the group a solid platform to build on over the rest of 2025.

“Looking ahead, the order book is in a healthy position at an impressive £1.1bn, giving decent near-term revenue visibility. The potential of rising build cost inflation had been an area of concern heading into these results, but the low single-digit outlook for 2025 is a challenge that Persimmon should be able to navigate with ease. Its in-house materials business is a key differentiator from peers and should offer the necessary protection from this.”