Ocado shares sink after another slow year, targets positive cash flow in 2027

Ocado Group has reported a sharp increase in profitability for the 52 weeks ended 30 November 2025, with group revenue rising 12.1% to £1.36 billion and adjusted EBITDA climbing 59% to £178 million.

Notably, the online grocer and technology business said it expects to turn cash flow positive during the second half of the current financial year, with full-year positive cash flow anticipated in FY27.

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However, long-suffering Ocado investors weren’t overly enthused by the results, presumably because the profit was achieved through accounting for a corporate restructuring rather than underlying earnings.

Shares were down 4% at the open on Thursday.

There were, however, some reasons to be cheerful. Technology Solutions saw revenue grow 13.0%, and EBITDA margins expanded from 16.2% to 25.0%, delivering £140 million in EBITDA against £81 million the prior year. Ocado Logistics contributed £38 million in EBITDA, up from £31 million, on revenue growth of 11.5%.

Ocado Retail saw revenue rise 15.4% with EBITDA increasing to £84 million, nearly doubling from £45 million. Orders grew 13.1%, with total CFC costs including labour sitting at 6% of sales, and units per hour efficiency up 8%.

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Ocado has long promised a profit, which they have now achieved. But the swing to a profit was due not to improving operational performance, but the revaluation of Ocado Retail.

On a statutory basis, the group reported a profit of £395 million compared to a loss of £374 million a year earlier, though this included a £783 million gain on the valuation of its 50% stake in Ocado Retail following the deconsolidation.

The underlying cash outflow was £213 million, slightly wider than £199 million, as higher EBITDA was offset by increased finance costs.

Operational progress

The group shipped 72 million orders worldwide during the year, with international weekly CFC volumes growing 26%. Average live modules rose 4% to 121, though year-end modules dipped to 122 from 123 after Morrisons stopped deliveries from the Erith CFC, removing five modules. Four new modules were added across sites in the US, UK and Poland.

Ocado’s Re:Imagined robotic picking system has now been rolled out across 10 CFCs, with the most advanced site picking roughly 50% of volumes robotically. A new three-module CFC in Warsaw was built and opened in just 12 months using the group’s optimised site design.

But all in all, it was a year of little progress for the group, which was dealt blows by key CFC partners.

The group faced setbacks to its partnerships with Kroger and Sobeys in North America, closing four sites and consolidating to a combined base of seven live CFCs. Ocado has several CFCs in the pipeline globally to help this area of the business get back on track.

Six new CFCs are due to go live over the next two to three years, including sites in Busan, Tokyo, Phoenix, Barcelona and Seoul. The group expects around 10 new modules in FY26 and 10–15 in FY27, offsetting 12 modules lost from the Kroger and Sobeys closures in early 2026.

For FY26, Ocado is guiding for Technology Solutions revenue of approximately £500 million with an EBITDA margin of around 30%, excluding CFC closure fees. Ocado Logistics is expected to deliver high mid-single digit percentage revenue growth with EBITDA of £30–35 million.

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