The Lloyds share price (LON:LLOY) will ultimately be dictated by the strength of the UK economy and how fast it can recover from the coronavirus lockdown.
However, like many of other companies in the FTSE 100, Lloyds shares are currently down heavily from recent highs and investors will want to pre-empt any recovery and buy shares as cheaply as they can.
This means the big question is with Lloyds already looking good value at 30p after the recent crash, will we see a situation where Lloyds fall further and look even better value?
Lloyds share price valuation
With Lloyds shares trading at 30p, the company trades at just 7x historical earnings.
This is significantly lower than their long term historical average and value investors would argue this is an ideal time to pick shares up.
As with all markets, there would be a counter argument to this view, centred around Lloyds’ exposure to UK households and businesses; both are currently under extreme pressure from the coronavirus lockdown.
It should be expected the number of bad loans jump and Lloyds suffer an increased volume of defaults during the period. This will have a negative impact on Lloyds profitability in the short term which will be compounded by a reduction in mortgages and new loans.
Lloyds financial health
Nevertheless, the impact of any disruption is probably priced into the current Lloyds share price, as is the recent scrapping of their dividend.
It would be more plausible for investors to start thinking an economic recovery when considering a purchase of Lloyds shares as this would be a truer reflection of Lloyds underlying earnings over the long-term.
With a CET1 ratio of 13.8 per cent after dividends reported for 2019FY, Lloyds are in a much stronger financial position than in the financial crisis and are able to absorb the reduced profitability through 2020.
This would mean in the short-term any influences on the timing of a recovery, such as the easing of the lockdown or successful trials of a vaccine, are going to be the biggest driver of Lloyds shares.
If the country is forced into a an extended coronavirus lockdown to help save lives, this will negatively impact the economy, and the shares of Lloyds bank.
Another important consideration to access whether Lloyds shares have bottomed is the recent technical formations.
Since bottoming, Lloyds has made a series of higher highs which are typically signal the beginning of an uptrend.
If this uptrend is to take hold, any dips in the Lloyds share price would certainly present a buying opportunity.
It should be noted the market is yet to retest the recent lows around 27.7p to access whether it will hold as support for the price.
