A surprise increase in UK inflation to 4% from 3.9% in the month prior will result in many investors tearing up their trade plans for early 2024.
The promise of lower inflation and potential rate cuts in the early months of 2024 sparked a rotation into cyclical sectors such as miners, housebuilders, REITs and some retailers. This move now looks premature.
Higher inflation is now set to continue to erode household spending power, and the prospect of higher interest rates for longer will likely lead to higher mortgage rates than could otherwise have been achieved.
Such a scenario will...
