Ocado shares sink after another slow year, targets positive cash flow in 2027

Ocado Group has reported a sharp increase in profitability for the 52 weeks ended 30 November 2025, with group revenue rising 12.1% to £1.36 billion and adjusted EBITDA climbing 59% to £178 million.

Notably, the online grocer and technology business said it expects to turn cash flow positive during the second half of the current financial year, with full-year positive cash flow anticipated in FY27.

However, long-suffering Ocado investors weren’t overly enthused by the results, presumably because the profit was achieved through accounting for a corporate restructuring rather than underlying earnings.

Shares were down 4% at the open on Thursday.

There were, however, some reasons to be cheerful. Technology Solutions saw revenue grow 13.0%, and EBITDA margins expanded from 16.2% to 25.0%, delivering £140 million in EBITDA against £81 million the prior year. Ocado Logistics contributed £38 million in EBITDA, up from £31 million, on revenue growth of 11.5%.

Ocado Retail saw revenue rise 15.4% with EBITDA increasing to £84 million, nearly doubling from £45 million. Orders grew 13.1%, with total CFC costs including labour sitting at 6% of sales, and units per hour efficiency up 8%.

Ocado has long promised a profit, which they have now achieved. But the swing to a profit was due not to improving operational performance, but the revaluation of Ocado Retail.

On a statutory basis, the group reported a profit of £395 million compared to a loss of £374 million a year earlier, though this included a £783 million gain on the valuation of its 50% stake in Ocado Retail following the deconsolidation.

The underlying cash outflow was £213 million, slightly wider than £199 million, as higher EBITDA was offset by increased finance costs.

Operational progress

The group shipped 72 million orders worldwide during the year, with international weekly CFC volumes growing 26%. Average live modules rose 4% to 121, though year-end modules dipped to 122 from 123 after Morrisons stopped deliveries from the Erith CFC, removing five modules. Four new modules were added across sites in the US, UK and Poland.

Ocado’s Re:Imagined robotic picking system has now been rolled out across 10 CFCs, with the most advanced site picking roughly 50% of volumes robotically. A new three-module CFC in Warsaw was built and opened in just 12 months using the group’s optimised site design.

But all in all, it was a year of little progress for the group, which was dealt blows by key CFC partners.

The group faced setbacks to its partnerships with Kroger and Sobeys in North America, closing four sites and consolidating to a combined base of seven live CFCs. Ocado has several CFCs in the pipeline globally to help this area of the business get back on track.

Six new CFCs are due to go live over the next two to three years, including sites in Busan, Tokyo, Phoenix, Barcelona and Seoul. The group expects around 10 new modules in FY26 and 10–15 in FY27, offsetting 12 modules lost from the Kroger and Sobeys closures in early 2026.

For FY26, Ocado is guiding for Technology Solutions revenue of approximately £500 million with an EBITDA margin of around 30%, excluding CFC closure fees. Ocado Logistics is expected to deliver high mid-single digit percentage revenue growth with EBITDA of £30–35 million.

Nvidia knocks it out of the park 

Nvidia has smashed Q4 earnings estimates and wowed markets with bumper Q1 2026 guidance that will go a long way to increasing confidence in the longevity of the AI trade.

There was a lot hinging on Nvidia’s earnings. A soft set of results could have unleashed a wave of volatility through equity markets as investors fretted that the AI boom was showing signs of wavering. 

But that wasn’t the case. Nvidia revenue came in at $68bn, much higher than the $66bn expected by analysts. Even more encouragingly, the chipmaker issued guidance of $78bn for Q1 2026, well above estimates of $73bn. 

What makes this all the more eye-catching is that the guidance doesn’t include any revenue from China. 

Although relations between the US and China have improved, Nvidia is yet to earn any revenue by selling H200 chips to China. This could all change with the US granting a licence to ship to select customers.

Nvidia Data Centre revenue was 75% higher than a year ago and up 22% on Q3. Anyone concerned about a potential slowdown in AI should be reassured by these numbers. 

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Nvidia has delivered a monster quarter, and if 73% revenue growth wasn’t enough, guidance points to yet another acceleration in the coming quarter to 77% at the midpoint.

“Expectations for revenues in 2026 and 2027 are clearly too low, and we expect to see a slew of analyst upgrades in the coming weeks on the back of these numbers. The bar was high heading into results, but Nvidia continues to demonstrate why it’s the top dog.

“Questions will still linger over whether the current AI spending wave can sustain growth beyond the next few years, and whether Nvidia will remain as dominant as AI shifts from training models to running everyday tasks. That uncertainty likely helps explain why the shares trade at only a modest premium to the wider market on a forward price‑to‑earnings basis, despite rocket ship financials.”

FTSE 100 storms to record high as miners and HSBC jump

The FTSE 100 surged on Wednesday, scaling fresh record highs, as rising metals prices and strong corporate results propelled the index higher.

Strong results from HSBC played a leading role, pushing the index to 10,788 before fading back to 10,781 as of the time of writing.

“The FTSE 100 resumed its upward charge after well-received results from HSBC reenergised the market,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The UK index hit a new intraday high of 10,778 in early trading as HSBC did some heavy lifting alongside Shell, and RELX extended yesterday’s recovery rally after a nasty AI-related sell-off last month.

“The strong showing from the UK stock market so far in 2026, on top of a major success in 2025, bodes well for changing its reputation from unloved to admired.”

HSBC shares shot up by 5.7% Wednesday, after the banking giant posted upbeat earnings driven by broad-based growth after the impact of restructuring costs.

“HSBC’s results this morning told a familiar, reassuring story for Asian bank investors: the engine is still humming and management confidence is quietly building,” explained Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“This morning’s 9% profit beat was driven by core banking momentum rather than one-offs, while guidance struck a notably more upbeat tone, pointing to stronger earnings power and returns as we move into 2026.”

However, it wasn’t all good news on the corporate update front. Diageo investors are struggling to catch a break at the moment, and the latest set of interim results has done nothing but rub salt in the wound. 

The dividend was slashed in half after the firm reported another period of net sales declines caused by poor performance in the US and China. 

Adam Vettese, market analyst for eToro, said: “Diageo’s interim results make for grim reading, with a halved dividend and slashed full-year guidance underscoring deep US weakness and China headwinds.”

“Organic sales forecasts now point to a 2-3% decline, while operating profit growth stalls at flat to low-single digits, hammered by softer spirits demand and tariffs.”

Haleon shares fell 3% after missing estimates. The drop was probably more to do with the strong run going into the results as opposed to any major disappointment.

Fresnillo was the top riser at the time of writing, as precious metals prices rose.

AIM movers: Anglesey Mining removes debt and Jet2 focuses on market share

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Anglesey Mining (LON: AYM) has completed a £4m debt settlement agreement with Energold. The only remaining debt is a £100,000 loan secured against a residential property near the Parys Mountain copper zinc gold project. The debt was settled by transferring the company’s other assets to Energold. The whole focus is Parys Mountain. Energold has invested £350,000 at 7.6p/share through exercising warrants. The share price jumped 19.1% to 6.25p.

Transport software and services provider Tracsis (LON: TRCS) confirms that trading is in line with expectations with interim revenues of £39m, up from £36.3m. EBITDA rose from £3.8m to £5m. Both divisions grew and recurring revenues increased. Net cash reached £25.8m at the end of January 2026. The second half will benefit from the early phase of a newly won contract in North America. This is a multi-year contract with a shortline freight railroad for implementing the Train Despatch software. This is the second implementation of Train Despatch in the US. Full operation of the software will be in 2026-27 and from then on it will generate recurring income. The share price increased 10.25 to 352.5p.

The Image Scan (LON: IGE) share price rebounded 10% to 1.65p after a positive AGM statement. Trading in the early months of this financial year is well ahead of the same period last year, helped by a new software module. Having lost the large defence contract, the underlying order book has still improved to £1.1m. A small loss is expected in the first half.

Energy efficiency services provider Earnz (LON: EARN) has won two contracts. Subsidiary A&D Carbon Solutions has been awarded an initial two-year contract to retrofit insulation and renewable energy products to homes in Chester and Stoke on Trent. The value is £2.6m/year and the deal could be extended by up to 18 months. The other contract is for one-year and is to start survey design work on energy efficiency improvements. This is expected to last from April 2026 to March 2028 and is worth £2.1m. The share price improved 9.09% to 6p.

FALLERS

Airline and tour operator Jet2 (LON: JET2) is satisfied with summer bookings and is focusing on growing market share with attractive pricing. Gatwick should be a major contributor in the longer-term. Net debt is forecast to be £21.4bn at the end of March 2026. Canaccord Genuity has maintained its 2025-26 pre-tax profit forecast at £542.3m but reduced next year’s figure from £475.1m to £455.8m due to the possible repercussions of the planned pricing strategy. The share price is 2.18% lower at £12.59, having been below £12.40 earlier in the morning.

Phosphate producer Kropz (LON: KRPZ) says that nearly 300,000 shares at 1.15p each were taken up in the retail offer and ARC Fund bought the rest so that the offer and subscription raised £917,000. The issue of 79.5 million shares to ARC Fund is dependent on exchange control approval from the South African Reserve Bank. The share price slipped 3.7% to 1.3p.

Trinidad-focused oil and gas producer and explorer Touchstone Exploration (LON: TXP) has published its 2025 reserves report. At the end of the year, gross PDP reserves increased by 45% to 9.9mmboe, although gross 2P reserves fell 1% to 49.6mmboe. The PDP NPV10 is one-third higher at $89m, which is equivalent to 20p/share, despite lower pricing. The 2P NPV10 is equivalent to 72p/share. In 2025, average production was 4,686boe/day. A $4.8m loss is estimated for 2025. The share price fell 3.51% to 8.25p.

AFC Energy (LON: AFC) generated modest revenues in 2025 but made progress with deals that should be beneficial over the longer-term. The hydrogen technology developer had £25.3m in the bank at the end of 2025. More opportunities are expected to be converted this year, and fixed costs are running at less than £1m each month. Zeus estimates a potential DCF valuation of at least 27p/share. The share price dipped 1.9% to 12.89p.

Augmentum Fintech agrees takeover

Swedish growth investor Verdane has agreed a recommended cash deal to take Augmentum Fintech private at 111p per share, valuing the London-listed fintech fund at approximately £185.7 million.

Augmentum Fintech has several leading UK Fintechs in its portfolio, including Tide, Zopa, and Iwoca, but the vehicle has struggled to narrow the deep discount to the portfolio valuation.

The favoured solution to this, as announced today, is to take it private.

The offer represents a 27% premium to Augmentum’s closing price of 87.4p on 24 February and a 29.6% premium to the three-month weighted average.

Augmentum’s board has unanimously backed the deal, advised by Cavendish, which considers the terms fair and reasonable.

The acquisition is being made through Frontier Bidco, a newly formed vehicle controlled by Verdane through its Freya XII fund.

“Since our IPO in 2018, Augmentum has been at the heart of the UK and European fintech sectors, backing high-growth companies such as Tide, Zopa, Iwoca, Cushon and Interactive Investor,” said William Reeve, Chairman of Augmentum.

“However, we recognise that for our shareholders, this portfolio’s potential has not been reflected in Augmentum’s market valuation.

Over several years, we have faced a persistent and widening discount to Net Asset Value, compounded by low levels of liquidity. This has made it difficult for shareholders to realise the true value of their holdings or for Augmentum to raise the capital necessary to support our ambitions.

To address this, the Augmentum Board has run a process to consider a range of strategic options. We are now recommending the Verdane offer, the best we received. This offer provides an immediate solution: it offers full liquidity at a 27.0% premium to the prevailing share price as at the Latest Practicable Date.

Diageo shares tumble as dividend slashed

Diageo’s results were never going to make for good reading, and they weren’t. They confirmed that key markets of China the US are still facing pressures, and there are few reasons to be optimistic.

If one were to take the glass half full approach, one could point to reasonably stable sales growth in Europe, LATAM, and Africa, but this was more than offset by weakness in the US and China. 

US net sales fell 7.4% and struggles in China culminated in net sales in Asia Pacific sliding 13%.

Overall, net sales were down 4% and operating profit fell 1.2%. The poor performance led to the drinks giant revising its fiscal 2026 sales growth guidance to negative 2-3%. 

The reduction in alcohol consumption in the developed world is well documented, but that appears to have done nothing to soften the blow of today’s results, which sent shares down 6% at the time of writing. 

Most punishingly for investors, Diageo’s challenging environment has led the group to slash its dividend by more than half. 

“Dave Lewis is going to need a stiff drink after presenting his first set of results as the new Diageo boss,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

“The business is not doing as well in the once lucrative North American market and China is not lining its pockets with riches either. Most of the key metrics in the results are in negative territory, with sales, operating profit and cash flow all in decline.

“Shareholders have also been delivered the sucker punch of a big cut to the dividend. That might come as a surprise to many investors who thought they would be paid to wait for the business recovery.”

The new CEO has a job on his hands.

High-grade copper and gold potential confirmed at EQTEC’s Green Rock project in Western Australia

EQTEC PLC has confirmed significant copper and gold potential at its Green Rock Project in Western Australia’s Ashburton Basin, following a comprehensive review of historical exploration data.

The review identified high-grade surface mineralisation with historical grades reaching up to 46.7% copper and 5.31 g/t gold, associated with major structural features and dyke margins across the 31.5 km² exploration licence.

Multiple prospects have been flagged across the site, with geological interpretation pointing to several possible mineralisation styles — yet remarkably, no modern drilling has ever been carried out.

The project sits roughly 160 km west of Paraburdoo and 35 km southwest of the Paulsens Gold Mine, placing it within a proven mineral district with established infrastructure access.

“Our detailed review of the historic data has reinforced both the quality of historic work, and the high tenor of copper and gold mineralisation observed to date.  We are also delighted the mineralisation appears to be structurally controlled and both the copper and gold anomalies are overlapping spatially,” said James Parsons, CEO of EQTEC.

EQTEC’s geological consultants are expected to mobilise to site in the coming weeks, once the summer wet season ends, for what will be the first systematic modern exploration programme at Green Rock.

Fieldwork will focus on validating outcropping mineralisation on the ground, assessing geophysical techniques suited to the malachite-hosted copper-gold systems present, and building broader structural models to explain how mineralisation is distributed across the licence area.

EQTEC had previously been a waste-to-energy specialist and has undertaken a major pivot to gold mining.

AIM movers: Avacta AI confirmation and One Health planning permission

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Biotech Avacta (LON: AVCT) has undertaken AI-driven analysis to assess differences between its pre|CISION peptide drug conjugate platform and a cleavable linker antibody drug conjugate. This showed that the AVA6103 pre|CISION based treatment was more rapid in penetrating the tumour and the tumour selectivity index (ratio of payload in the tumour vs that in plasma) is three times that of the rival treatment. The share price increased 7.08% to 60.6p.

Governance, risk and compliance software provider Acuity RM (LON: ACRM) has won a contract with Sopra Steria worth £75,000. The ultimate customer is the British government. This is for a programme that has already generated £250,000 for Acuity RM. This follows a £178,000 contract with the British government. The share price improved 5.88% to 0.9p.

Concierge technology platform provider Ten Lifestyle (LON: TENG) has won a multi-year contract with a financial services provider in the AMEA region. The service will be offered to high net worth and ultra-high net worth clients. This has been won from an incumbent provider, and the transition will start in the second half of the year to August 2026. The share price gained 5.11% to 72p.

One Health Group (LON: OHGR) shares rose 4.29% to 243p following yesterday afternoon’s announcement that planning approval had been obtained for the new surgical hub in Scunthorpe. The facility could be completed within 12 months, and it will cost up to £9m. Some of this has already been spent and there is cash to cover the rest. The surgical hub could generate revenues of £6m-£9m at a potential gross margin of 30% – forecast 2026-27 revenues are £30.7m without a contribution from the surgical hub.

Digital transformation services provider TPXimpact (LON: TPX) has followed up the recent contract wins with a third quarter trading statement that has sparked a forecast rise. Margins continue to improve, so although forecast full year revenues are maintained at £76.2m, the operating profit forecast has been raised from £5.5m to £6.2m. Earnings have been upgraded from 3.4p/share to 3.9p/share. Forecast growth in 2026-27 revenues has been raised from 5% to 10% and operating profit is expected to be £7.5m. The share price is 3.955 higher at 39.5p.

FALLERS

RC Fornax (LON: RCFX) full year figures were in line with previously downgraded estimates. Revenues fell 37% to £4.1m, while the pre-tax loss was £1.4m. The defence contractor says activity has improved since the MoD review. This increases confidence in the 2025-26 forecast revenues of £5.8m and a loss of £2m. In November, cash was raised at 6p/share. The share price slipped 10.5% to 9.625p.

Essensys (LON: ESYS) is recommending a 17p/share cash offer by a bid vehicle backed by founder Mark Furniss that values the flexible workspace software provider at £11.3m. there is a one-for-one share alternative for shareholders that want to retain an interest in the business. The original indicative offer was 20p/share. The share price was already trading below the indicative offer, and it fell a further 9.17% to 16.35p.

Fiinu (LON: BANK) says Conister Bank is delaying the launch of the Plugin Overdraft until the second quarter of 2026. Testing has commenced and a third-party payment interface is being developed for Conister Bank by Fiinu. The share price declined 7.58% to 7.625p.

Alien Metals (LON: UFO) says joint venture partner West Coast Silver reports that assay from the Elizabeth Hill silver project show significant results and extend silver mineralisation away from the historic mine workings both to the north and south. There are multiple near-surface, high-grade silver intersections. The share price dipped 8.11% to 0.17p.

Higher production and prices propel Sylvania Platinum

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Sylvania Platinum (LON: SLP) has more than doubled interim revenues and declared a 2p/share interim dividend. The outlook for platinum group metals production and prices remains positive. There was a small contribution from the Thaba chrome joint venture, which should make a larger contribution in the second half.

The AIM-quoted tailings processor and minerals explorer, which has six platinum group metal processing plants in the Bushveld complex in South Africa, produced 49,164 4E platinum group metals (PGM) ounces in the six months to December 2025, up from 39,398 ounces in the corresponding period last year. The first chrome and PGM products were produced by the Thaba joint venture.

Interim revenues were 110% higher at $99.8m due to a combination of increased production and a 55% rise in platinum group metals prices. There was a $600,000 contribution from chrome sales. Pre-tax profit jumped from $9.7m to $36.7m, which was after a $12.3m write-down of the Hacra exploration project.

The centralised PGM filtration plant was commissioned late in the period, and it will enable a more stable quality of concentrate to be produced, which will help to prevent penalties from buyers.

Cash was $54m at the end of December 2025. Management has set aside $2.5m for share buybacks. That still leaves plenty of cash to invest in the existing business. There is another potential chrome joint venture, as well as two remaining exploration projects.

Full year production guidance is 90,000-93,000 4E PGM – seasonally lower second half – and there is a chrome concentrate target of 60,000-90,000 tons.

The chrome target has been reduced due to plant optimisation issues that were more complex than expected. A review of the mine plan is being undertaken. The plant could still ramp up to full capacity by the summer.

Panmure Liberum forecasts a full year pre-tax profit of $90.5m, although it anticipates a decline to around $71m in 2026-27. The share price edged up 1p to 121p, which is around six times prospective 2025-26 earnings. The forecast yield is nearly 2.5%.

Cash can be invested in new projects that will further enhance revenues and profit.

Diageo earnings preview

Diageo will report results on Wednesday and provide insight into how the drinks giant is navigating faltering demand in key markets amid changing consumer behaviors.

Diageo shares have more than halved since their peak in 2022 as a series of setbacks in China, the US, and Africa have raised questions about the company’s growth prospects.

Morningstar analysts have highlighted that the pressures that have dogged Diageo in recent years haven’t gone away, but the company has a much tighter grip on its management.

Verushka Shetty, equity research analyst at Morningstar, said: “In its first-quarter results last year, Diageo lowered its full-year guidance, which makes sense given the current environment.”

“The company now expects a slight decline in organic revenue year on year and low- to mid-single-digit operating profit growth. Previously, it had guided to organic net sales growth in line with fiscal 2025 and mid-single-digit organic operating profit growth. We do not expect a meaningful change here.”

“We continue to see the US and China as the main drags on performance. Pernod also reported softness in both markets last week, while performance was mixed in other regions.”

Shetty continued to explain that much of the focus will be on the action Diageo is taking to control costs and maintain margins:

“Diageo has been progressing with cost-cutting initiatives and divesting non-core assets (including the Bangalore cricket team and East Africa Breweries) to support cash generation and protect margins. There is now increasing discussion that the new CEO, Sir Dave Lewis, plans to restructure the organisation – something that would not be surprising given his reputation.”

Despite ongoing constraints, Morningstar still sees value in the stock.

“Diageo is a four star stock, trading at roughly 18% discount to our Fair Value Estimate,” Shetty said.