John Lewis Partnership warns trading hit by COVID-19
The John Lewis Partnership said on Tuesday that its short term trading has been “significantly affected” by the COVID-19 crisis.
As the outbreak of the illness continues to spread in the UK, the government has introduced stricter lockdown measures, closing all non-essential shops.
Sales at John Lewis have declined by 17% year-on-year since the middle of March, and have dropped by 7% year-on-year since 26 January.
As all of its stores are shut, online sales at John Lewis have risen by 84% since the middle of March, with high demand for products related to working and living at home.
However, the John Lewis Partnership said that this has not been enough to offset the loss made by the closure of its stores.
Meanwhile, Waitrose has seen sales grow by 8% since 26 January and cupboard essentials have been particularly popular.
“Our short term trading has though been significantly affected, principally because of the closure of all 50 John Lewis branches,” Chairman Sharon White told partners in a statement.
“John Lewis online remains open – providing essential goods and services to enable customers to live well at home – and online sales are substantially up on last year. But it has not been enough to offset the loss of shop trade. Demand at Waitrose has risen sharply but operating costs have increased too, especially as we have expanded online delivery,” the Chairman continued.
The retailer added that, given the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the COVID-19 crisis, its full year performance is difficult to predict.
Looking ahead, the John Lewis Partnership warned that the worst case scenario for the full year involves sales at John Lewis declining by 35%, with Waitrose seeing a decline of less than 5%.
The British government introduced stricter lockdown measures at the end of last month in order to help contain the spread of the illness. Many fear the economic implications of these measures, as non-essential stores have been closed.
Premier Foods shares soar as sales grow
Premier Foods (LON:PFD) shares soared on Monday as the company saw sales rise in March amid the outbreak of COVID-19.
Shares in the owner of the Mr Kipling brand were up by more than 20% during trading on Monday.
The company said that UK sales are expected to have grown by roughly 7.3% in the fourth quarter and 15.1% in March.
“The trading performance in the fourth quarter continued the positive momentum seen in previous quarters and volumes in March rose sharply to fulfil increased consumer demand during the outbreak of COVID-19,” Premier Foods said in a statement.
As the outbreak of the illness continues to spread, many consumers have stockpiled products to ensure that they have what they need.
Premier Foods said that it has seen “a dramatic short-term peak in volumes across many of its categories during March”.
The company added that volumes have begun to reduce from the “exceptional levels” experienced last month, though they are still expected to be higher than usual.
“This reflects more meals being eaten at home than usual due to recent measures set out by HM Government and hence increased demand for the group’s product ranges,” the company continued.
Indeed, the government introduced stricter social distancing measures last month, encouraging people to stay indoors unless absolutely necessary.
“The group also takes its responsibility as a major UK food manufacturer very seriously and is working closely with its customers to ensure maximum availability of its product ranges for consumers,” Premier Foods continued.
“During this challenging time, the company’s manufacturing and distribution operations are working at maximum capacity and coping well with this recent elevated level of demand, and customer service levels continue to be high.”
Shares in Premier Foods plc (LON:PFD) were up on Monday, trading at +22.32% as of 14:25 BST.
Oil sinks to lowest level since 1982
US West Texas Intermediate WTI Oil has sunk to $11.01 per barrel, the lowest level since 1982.
Oil has been under pressure throughout the COVID-19crisis and today’s selloff marks a new milestone for 2020’s decline.
However, while the headline figure of oil falling to $11.01 suggests a shock to global markets, the underlying market dynamics suggests this isn’t the case.
The WTI oil contract priced at $11.01 is the front month May contract which is due to expire on Tuesday.
This means that as of tomorrow, when the May contract expires, WTI prices will be quoted from the June contract. The June contract is trading at $22, around double the price of the May contract.
The sharp drop in WTI oil prices to record lows today is more a case of futures traders exiting positions in the May contract in a low volume market to avoid taking physical delivery.
Each month trader’s shift to the next month along the contract curve near the expiry of the front month as this is where the market liquidity naturally shifts to as traders exit positions to avoid holding a position when the contract expires.
WTI Oil
So while WTI is printing the lowest level since 1982, this isn’t a true reflection of the oil market which will be quoted at $22 as of tomorrow. Despite today’s price largely being a consequence of market dynamics and the contract expiring, it makes the price no less remarkable and is a sign that oil traders really don’t want to be taking delivery of American oil in the current market. The IEA have recently issued a report that highlighted a severe lack of demand could lead to storage facilities becoming full. This would undoubtedly be disastrous for the price of oil and some analysts have said the price of oil could even turn negative as oil producers have to pay people to take it away.FTSE 100 takes a breather after a week of strong gains
The FTSE 100 and other major European indices took a break from recent gains on Monday as the market digested a slowdown in the number of new coronavirus deaths.
The FTSE 100 was broadly flat in early trade on Monday with London’s leading index trading in a tight range around 5,800 for most of the morning.
The number of people who sadly died with coronavirus fell in the world’s largest economies over the weekend as the United States recorded 1,629 deaths on Sunday, considerably lower than the 2,000+ deaths that were reported last week.
Many European countries have also reported a fall in the number of new cases and deaths. The slowdown in new cases has given countries such as Germany and Spain the confidence to outline plans to start reopening their economies.
However, some analysts are still cautioning over the impact of coronavirus on the global economy and adjusting their investment exposure accordingly.
“We have increased our preference to be overweight government bonds, reflecting our view central banks will continue to act to maintain easy monetary conditions, and at the same time allow fiscal space to be created without higher yields,” said Michael Grady, head of investment strategy and chief economist at Aviva Investors.
“Our modest underweight equity allocation reflects our concern that economic weakness will translate into historically weak corporate earnings in 2020, which we do not think markets are fully discounting at this time.”
Other investors, such as Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio, have said they are avoiding bonds in favour of buying opportunities they see in equities. Ray Dalio has also said ‘cash is trash’ – a view that would suggest now is the time to making investments.
US earnings season started last week with major US banks reporting lower profits and warning on the outlook. However, many of the banks’ shares rose, providing support for the argument the negative impact on the coronavirus on corporate earnings is largely priced in.
UK Government launches £1.25bn start-up support package
The UK government has announced a much needed £1.25bn support package for the UK’s start-ups.
The package is broken down into two elements; a £500m fund designed for small businesses and the provision of £750m in grants and loans from Innovate UK.
To qualify for support, companies must have already raised £250,000 in equity investment through private investment channels within the last 5 years.
Rishi Sunak’s announcement to assist start-up businesses comes after it became apparent the treasury’s initial stimulus package wouldn’t filter down to the UK’s fastest growing and most innovative companies.
The banks are ultimately in control of distributing the government’s £350 billion aid package for businesses. With only 80% of the value of loans being guaranteed by the government, banks still have to accept some risk so haven’t approved loans on the scale needed to support smaller businesses. Many other countries have guaranteed 100% of loans to businesses.
The latest package is aimed at those companies engaged in high levels of R&D and may not yet be producing enough revenue to cover costs.
These innovative companies typically operate in the technology and knowledge intensive sectors and face closure if they are unable to secure capital.
Gerard Grech, Chief Executive, Tech Nation, highlighted the importance of startup sfor the UK as he said “Tech startups and scaleups are crucial to the UK’s future growth, jobs and innovation. The £500M Future Fund and £750M for loans and grants for R&D for startups is a bold intervention, and although the full implementation details are to still be released, it is likely to give the sector a welcome boost in these unprecedented times. How to target the money effectively should be the next priority.”
“Start-ups and scale-ups vary in their financial structuring and their regional location. It will be important to get the balance just right, across the UK and also across the different models of investments, from angel invested companies to VC-funded firms.”
“The UK’s tech sector has achieved a huge amount in the past 10 years. In 2019, a staggering 33% of all European tech investment was in the UK – the third highest in the world. We must keep building on this success story”
Flutter Entertainment shares complete V-shaped recovery
Shares in the owner of Betfair and Paddy Power, Flutter Entertainment (LON:FLTR), have completed a remarkable V-shaped recovery following the sharp selloff due to coronavirus.
With the heavily touted V-shaped recovery in the global economy looking increasingly unlikely, the FTSE 100 gambling company has at least provided its investors with a strong recovery.
The recovery has completed with a 13% increase on Friday as a reaction to the betting group’s Q1 trading update.
Flutter’s Q1 revenue grew 29% to £547m from £478m in 2019, helped by strong performance in the gaming division.
With sporting events being heavily disrupted due to coronavirus lockdowns, Flutter’s strong performance was a surprise to markets and shares hit a 5-week high on the back of the announcement.
The rally took shares back above 85p and completed a sharp recovery from the selloff that started in early May.
Flutter Entertainment CEO, Peter Jackson, commented on the results.
“The Group performed very well in the period prior to the disruption to sporting events in mid-March. We delivered strong customer growth across each of our brands and benefitted from favourable sports results across our sportsbooks. Following the widespread cancellation of sporting events, Group revenues have been more resilient than we initially expected, helped by the continuation of horse racing in Australia and the US. Gaming continues to perform well across the Group.”
“During this unprecedented time, we are keenly aware of our heightened responsibility to ensure that we do all we can to promote responsible gambling. We have stepped up our own practices and are collaborating with our peers within the Betting and Gaming Council to continue to raise standards across the sector. We are also working hard to provide all the support we can to our employees and I would like to thank them for their ongoing commitment and support for each other during this difficult period.”
“While the current disruption is truly exceptional, it underlines the importance of product and geographic diversification. As such, the strategic logic of our combination with The Stars Group remains compelling. Following approval of the deal yesterday by the Irish Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, we look forward to completing the transaction in Q2 upon receipt of outstanding shareholder and regulatory approvals.”
The recovery has completed with a 13% increase on Friday as a reaction to the betting group’s Q1 trading update.
Flutter’s Q1 revenue grew 29% to £547m from £478m in 2019, helped by strong performance in the gaming division.
With sporting events being heavily disrupted due to coronavirus lockdowns, Flutter’s strong performance was a surprise to markets and shares hit a 5-week high on the back of the announcement.
The rally took shares back above 85p and completed a sharp recovery from the selloff that started in early May.
Flutter Entertainment CEO, Peter Jackson, commented on the results.
“The Group performed very well in the period prior to the disruption to sporting events in mid-March. We delivered strong customer growth across each of our brands and benefitted from favourable sports results across our sportsbooks. Following the widespread cancellation of sporting events, Group revenues have been more resilient than we initially expected, helped by the continuation of horse racing in Australia and the US. Gaming continues to perform well across the Group.”
“During this unprecedented time, we are keenly aware of our heightened responsibility to ensure that we do all we can to promote responsible gambling. We have stepped up our own practices and are collaborating with our peers within the Betting and Gaming Council to continue to raise standards across the sector. We are also working hard to provide all the support we can to our employees and I would like to thank them for their ongoing commitment and support for each other during this difficult period.”
“While the current disruption is truly exceptional, it underlines the importance of product and geographic diversification. As such, the strategic logic of our combination with The Stars Group remains compelling. Following approval of the deal yesterday by the Irish Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, we look forward to completing the transaction in Q2 upon receipt of outstanding shareholder and regulatory approvals.” FTSE 100 jumps following encouraging COVID-19 drug trial results
The FTSE 100 surged on Friday after US drug company Gilead announced positive results from a trial of the antiviral drug Remdesivir.
A trial at the University of Chicago found the large majority of 125 patients with COVID-19 who undertook the experimental course of Remdesivir showed dramatic signs of improvement. Two of the 125 sadly died.
The study at the University of Chicago was a phase 3 trial and involved 113 patients that were classed as seriously ill, many of whom were on ventilation.
Reports from researchers highlighted significant improvement in patients with changes noticable almost immediately after the patients began taking Remdesivir.
Over the weekend, the UK Investor Magazine reported Gilead had seen an improvement in two thirds of seriously ill patients with COVID-19 who had received a course of Remdesivir.
The latest set of results build on these positive findings, but further trials are needed to make broad assumptions on Remdesivir efficacy, and test the safety of the drug for use against COVID-19.
Such trials are currently underway with around 4,000 COVID-19 patients trialing Remdesivir at multiple locations around the world.
The trials have been ongoing since March and are expected to yield results in May.
Remdesivir had originally been developed for treatment of patients with Ebola but Gilead sent a free shipment to China in January to test on COVID-19 patients and initial positive findings sparked wider testing.
Gilead shares surged in after-hours trading last night and triggered a global rally in equities.
If the early signs of Remdesivir trials are backed up with more comprehensive results, it could provide the most important breakthrough in reducing the death rate in patients who are seriously ill with COVID-19.
In this scenario, government leaders may have the confidence to speed up the reopening of their economies, safe in the knowledge there is a drug that can dramatically reduce the death rate of the most severely ill patients with COVID-19.
The prospect of economies reopening drove a wave of optimism through equity markets with the FTSE 100 rising over 3% in Friday morning trade.
The German DAX was also much better bid and US futures were pointing to further gains.
Latour 1982? Why Authenticity Matters In The Fine Wine Market
OenoFuture’s Chief Wine Analyst and Master of Wine Justin Knock explains why authenticity matters in the fine wine market.
For anyone interested in fine wine the documentary film Sour Grapesis a must-watch. This is the story of Rudy Kurniawan, the most notorious name in the world of fine wine over the past decade, who lured in high-end collectors and sold them tens of millions of dollars of fake wine. Kurniawan has been in jail since 2013, but his actions are of course not unique and there are several lessons we should learn from his tale.
One is that eliminating fake wines out of the system has proven difficult for numerous reasons. Perhaps the most obvious is in the taste. Sampling in this way is not only destructive; who of us can claim they know what ’45 Mouton tastes like, or rather, what it should taste like at 50, 60, 70 or 80 years of age? More insidiously, what about ’62 Lafite?
Kurniawan’s genius was to routinely take a very good shoulder vintage like ’62, blend it with a little young Cabernet from the New World, and produce the acclaimed ’61 – thereby instantly multiplying the cost of his still high-quality components many times over.
In the case of the collectors in the film it was clear that many of them were willing to suspend disbelief to fulfil dreams of tasting exquisitely rare wine, an all-too-familiar example of investor emotions getting the better of rational thought. Despite concerns about where and how Kurniawan was finding these wonder wines, the victims wanted to believe that what he was bringing them was real. A seminal line in the film is after Kurniawan has gone to prison, they ask a collector what they thought of him now. The reply, ‘yeah I know he ripped us off, but … Rudy was such a great taster’.
While Kurniawan was convicted as a rogue hand, it’s clear that his actions were enabled by others who bankrolled his acquisitions, aided in producing huge quantities of fake wine, and bolstered his credibility by offering lots at auction. Whilst never convicted on charges, one very famous New York auction house settled out of court with American billionaire Bill Koch for selling him hundreds of Kurniawan fakes (Koch had prior experience buying fakes from another infamous fraud, Hardy Rodenstock, and was not to be shaken down twice). What’s happened to these known fakes? A tiny quantity was destroyed but the vast majority remain in the fine wine market today.
The high ascribed value of fake wine can thus be a barrier to ridding it from the system – in a high stakes game of pass-the-parcel who is ultimately going to bear the loss? In a showdown for the lawyers it’s one thing to assert that within the limits of probability a wine is not genuine. It is something else altogether to guarantee that it is fake. Taking all these things into consideration its therefore a better approach to have extremely robust acquisition protocols and avoid bringing fake wines into the system in the first place.
Prevention rather than cure
Central to Kurniawan’s conviction was the testimony of Maureen Downey, founder of Chai Consulting and WineFraud.com. Amongst the world of fine wine, Maureen and her team of authenticators are a legendary force. They have placed accused fraudsters on trial (Kurniawan, for example) and under the microscope with their approach to authenticating wine. One element is forensic; bottles can be examined under high magnification or alternative light sources to sort the genuine from the fake. This can be aligned to historical research on a domaine or château to understand the exact details of production from a particular vintage. It is research like this that led to Sotheby’s Serena Sutcliffe MW to once quip, ‘There is more ’45 Mouton in the market than was ever made’. OenoFuture’s method of sourcing stock ex-cellars, that is directly from the producing estate, is the single most important step we can take to guarantee the provenance of the wines in which clients invest, and this covers more than 95% of our inventory purchases. OenoFuture has now taken steps to partner with UK certified authenticator Siobhan Turner (former EGM of the Institute of Masters of Wine), Chai Consulting and Winefraud.com to enhance our sourcing protocols and train the Oeno wine team on authentication measures for the small portion of our acquisitions that are not ex-cellars.Fraud is good
Can there be a positive outcome from wine fraud? No industry wants to talk about its dark side, especially when the very foundations upon which the industry is built are challenged. Fraudulent wine has been with us since time immemorial, but many may not know that it is also responsible for completely shaping the structure of the 20thcentury wine industry and has made wine the safe and respected beverage it is today. It may surprise many to know that the first control systems that featured audit trails and production legislation only appeared in the 1930s. Prior to that nothing was available to establish the veracity of a wine’s origin or status. While there were informal quality hierarchy systems in places like Burgundy, and also in Bordeaux with the famous 1855 classification, there were no means of assessing origin forensically or legislatively. Everything was based on trust. The importance of having ‘a reliable merchant’ is short-hand today for one with judicious taste in quality, but back in the day it really was about trust in authenticity. Fraud became a major problem in wine in the 1870s and 1880s thanks to the advance of phylloxera, the vine louse that devastated European vineyards without discrimination. Over the course of two decades the production of wine in Europe plummeted. With wine being part of the staple diet of both peasants and the gentry, it created chaos in markets and incredible opportunities for the nefarious. The resulting shortage encouraged numerous creative and illegal solutions. Importation of raisins from the eastern Mediterranean to western Europe rose ten-fold within a decade. The desiccated grapes were steeped in water to rehydrate and leach their sugars and fermented. The nascent German chemical industry supplied colour and other additives thanks to their recent discovery of heavy-metal based inks and dyes. Carcinogenic Fuchsine, thanks to its rich, magenta hue, was a popular additive, while it is said that by 1885 more wine was being ‘made’ on the docks of London, Brussels and Hamburg than in the vineyards of France. Simpler still was the rebadging of wine in cask that had arrived in Bordeaux from Rioja or the Languedoc and passing it off as Claret. As vineyards died in Europe, so they rose in the New World. Phylloxera was a boon to California, South America, Australia and South Africa as they multiplied plantings and enjoyed export success in a thirsty Europe. Eventually production recovered across Europe as grafting to American rootstock proved successful in nullifying the louse, but by then the world faced a glut from recovering European production, the New World and man-made wines. Collapses in prices led to civil unrest and riots in France in the early 1900s sowing the seeds for major reform. And thus, over a period of several decades the French AOC system (Appellation d’Origin Contrôlée) was born. Interesting, the AOC system was originally devised to eliminate fraudulent wine production, specifically the passing-off of French regional names with wines from some other origin. It’s actually a trademarking exercise that protects the name of wine from a place, not the quality of the product. Many things we take for granted today were born in this turbulently fraudulent period. Fine wine once shipped in bulk is now almost exclusively estate bottled – a practice started by Mouton-Rothschild in 1924. Chateauneuf du Pape became the first AOC in 1933, nominating 13 different varieties as the only ones permitted. And yet Grenache, Syrah and Mourvèdre (those of dark colour and rich body) were planted in almost total exclusion to the rest because the Burgundian négociants would buy the production and ship it north for blending. We accept today that Burgundy can be finer than Bordeaux, but back in the 50s and 60s Burgundy was known to be much richer than Claret. The laying down of strict regulations controlling production in France have propagated into Spain, Italy and the rest of Europe. With names like Champagne, Barolo and Pomerol now synonymous with luxury, high quality and high prices it’s impossible to deny the success of the AOC system as one of the greatest marketing exercises in history. Controlled production has encouraged exclusivity which in turn has generated winery profits, much of which has been re-invested improving vineyard quality, winemaking sophistication and international marketing. It’s hard to argue that nearly one hundred years on we are living through the Golden Age of wine. Or to paraphrase Gordon Gecko, ‘Fraud is good’. More recently, producers themselves have taken further steps to combat fraud by much more sophisticated players. This includes incorporating technology into their products with things like proof-tags, hidden DNA in the label, ultra-violet printing and many others that remain secret to the producers only. Simpler steps such as serial numbers, bottle numbers and strong database management can help wineries trace every bottle through to the end user. Blockchain technology also offers plenty of potential to securely trace the entire history of a bottle, recording where and how it has been stored and under what conditions. There are also other non-invasive techniques that verify the contents and their age through the measurement of chemical isotopes. Wine fingerprinting is surely an anti-fraud technique for the 21stcentury. Investors and collectors need to be aware of fraud, not afraid of it. The well-educated and well-tooled are also the well-armed in combating fraud in wine which can bring trust and credibility to the market, freeing participants to invest and trade on solid ground.Volkswagen scraps full year outlook
Volkswagen AG (ETR:VOW3) said on Thursday that the outbreak of COVID-19 has had a “significant” impact on its business.
Shares in the German company were up during trading on Thursday.
Based on preliminary figures, Volkswagen now expects first quarter sales revenue to amount to roughly €55 billion.
Meanwhile, operating profit is expected to plunge to €0.9 billion, an 81% decline compared to the figure recorded for the first quarter of 2019.
The company scrapped its full year outlook for 2020 and is unable to determine when predictions for the full year can be made.
Many sectors have faced financial challenges as a result of the virus and the measures to contain it.
Stricter lockdown measures were introduced in the UK at the end of March in order to help contain the spread of the illness, closing all non-essential shops.
“The automobile retail network has largely came to a standstill,” Volkswagen said in a statement.
“The Volkswagen Group has already implemented extensive counter measures to reduce costs. Securing liquidity has the highest priority and optimising working capital and prioritising investments are key focus areas,” the company continued.
“The Volkwagen Group is planning the phased restart of production with enhanced safety standards for the workforce. As can be seen from the positive developments in China, economic recovery during the course of the year appears possible,” the company added.
Looking ahead, the company warned that the effects of the illness on consumer demand, the supply chain and production cannot be “accurately forecasted” right now.
Indeed, there is much uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, including its duration.
Shares in Volkswagen AG (ETR:VOW3) were up on Thursday, trading at +1.10% as of 15:33 CEST.
