Vistry shares rise as focus on partnerships drives completions higher

Vistry shares gained on Thursday after the homebuilder released full-year earnings revealing resilience in its partnerships approach to new homes.

Vistry’s strategy of focusing on affordable housing through partnerships with local authorities and associations delivered 16,118 new homes in 2023, down only 5.4% proforma compared to the prior year.

The company, which operates client-facing Bovis Homes, Linden Homes and Countryside Homes, now delivers the majority of its completed units through partnerships and has enjoyed greater stability than housebuilders focusing on the private market.

The successful integration of Countryside Partnerships has yielded cost synergies as well as greater coverage of the market.

Revenues for the year were 29.6% higher on an adjusted basis to £4.04bn and operating profit rose 8.2%. An enhanced focus on the affordable end of the market will ultimately pressure margins, but the group is now a high-volume operator, and sacrificing margins will be acceptable to shareholders if profits grow.

Vistry shares added 1% on Thursday and are now up 47% over the past year. This compares to a 5.7% gain for Persimmon and 22% rise for Taylor Wimpey. The market clearly sees value in Vistry’s partnership model.

“Vistry’s transition to a partnerships giant has meant its full-year numbers have held up better than many of its peers. Partnerships involve teaming up with local authorities and housing associations to provide affordable housing. These partners foot most of the bill which reduces Vistry’s risk and frees up cash to deploy elsewhere in the business,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“But it comes at a cost – the profits in this kind of work aren’t as juicy. That’s exactly what we’ve seen play out in 2023. Despite underlying revenue climbing around 30%, underlying operating profit only edged around 8% higher as margins came under pressure.

“Vistry will need to ramp up volumes if it wants to offset the impact of lower volumes on overall profits. The mammoth £4.6bn order book gives investors some comfort in this regard, providing near-term revenue visibility as the group looks to increase completions this year, targeting growth of around 8.5% to 17,500 new homes.”

Voyager Life plots merger with Seed Innovations investee company Northern Leaf

Aquis-quoted cannabidiol products supplier Voyager Life (LON: VOY) has revealed plans to merge with Northern Leaf, which had planned to join AIM late last year. This should value the combined group at £5m – the Voyager Life share price is unchanged at 11p – if deferred consideration is paid in full. That requires Northern Leaf to generate revenues of more than £5m by March 2025.

Jersey-based medical cannabis supplier Northern Leaf was the second company to be awarded a UK commercial high THC licence – the other was former AIM company GW Pharmaceuticals. Prior to 2023, the company had raised £16m over three years. Northern Leaf raised £3m in pre-IPO cash via a preference share issue in April 2023, followed by at least £1m raised via a loan note with the right to convert into shares at a discount to an AIM flotation price.

Voyager Life is offering 10 million shares for Northern Leaf, plus up to 2 million shares if the individual shareholders do not sell within six months. The deferred consideration of up to 21.9 million shares is split into two tranches. If revenues are more than £2m, the 10.95 million shares will be issued, while the rest will be issued based on how near to £5m the revenues end up.

AIM-quoted investment company Seed Innovations (LON: SEED) owns 0.55% of Northern Leaf. It invested £600,000 in a convertible loan note in 2021 and converted this into shares in April 2023. That stake had been valued at £960,000 before being reduced to £444,000 last September and then to £13,000. The merger values the stake at £5,000. The Seed Innovations share price is unchanged at 2.05p because it has already taken most of the hit.  

In May 2023, Northern Leaf received Good Manufacturing Practice accreditation from the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency for its flower product as an active pharmaceutical ingredient. The following month the company gained accreditation for its 100,000 square feet cultivation facility in Jersey. The facility has the capacity to deliver nine tonnes of cannabis flower each year. There are already customers.

Because of the poor financial state of Northern Leaf, the Takeover Code requirements have been waived. Voyager Life will require more cash for the deal to go through. Stanford Capital and SI Capital are the brokers.

FTSE 100 flat as UK GDP growth helps lift the mood

The FTSE 100’s rally continued on Wednesday morning after UK GDP expanded in January, and another strong session in the US helped lift the mood.

It isn’t often the FTSE 100 trades based on underlying UK economic developments, yet a 0.2% increase in UK GDP in January was enough to maintain positive sentiment and take stocks higher.

Early gains diminished and the FTSE 100 was trading flat higher at the time of writing.

“A pick-up in the UK economy and a rally in US tech shares on Wall Street last night helped to sustain the positive momentum on the markets,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“In line with the consensus estimate, UK GDP grew by 0.2% in January thanks to expansion in the services sector.

“While the figure is tiny, the fact it is growing at all is a positive. Investors want the UK’s recession status cast into the rear-view mirror so they can focus on how potential looser monetary policy could provide relief to consumers and businesses, and in turn feed into greater economic activity. Sadly, that could take time to play out.”

The risk-on sentiment in FTSE 100 stocks was evident in a cyclical-led rally. Miners were among the best performers, with Glencore and Antofagasta battling it out for the pole position on the leaderboard. The two miners were over 2% higher at the time of writing. Anglo American was up 1%.

Interest also increased in the utilities sector, as National Grid and United Utilities crept 1% and 1.7% higher, respectively.

Fresnillo was the FTSE 100’s biggest faller as gold retreated from record highs. St James’s Place extended declines with another 1.5% loss.

AIM movers: Keywords Studios share price recovers and CAP-XX short of cash

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Video games services provider Keywords Studios (LON: KWS) was resilient in 2023 despite the tough video games market. The share recovered 12.7% to 1544.5p, but they are still below the level at the start of 2024. Adjusted pre-tax profit was 2% ahead at €114.7m on revenues 13% higher at €780.4m. Broader media business was hit by the writers’ strike in Hollywood and that knocked €20m off revenues.  

Symphony Environmental Technologies (LON: SYM) has been boosted by a positive report from the US Environmental Protection Agency that pro-oxidant masterbatches “could significantly reduce the persistence of plastic pollution without creating undesired by-products”. This is based on a scientific evaluation and is a positive thing for the company’s d2w technology.

Woodbois (LON: WBI) is selling its Mozambique operations to focus on its timber interests in Gabon. The business will be bought by a local purchaser and the agreement should be signed in the next few weeks. Bans on exports and instability in the Cabo Delgado region mean that Mozambique is less attractive.

FALLERS

Supercapacitors manufacturer Cap-XX (LON: CPX) says its working capital position continues to deteriorate because of the costs of the patent infringement case and disappointing revenues. This has hampered the ability of the company to invest in R&D. Debt is not a potential source of funds and a share issue process has taken longer than expected. Cash is required by the end of the month. The share price slumped 82.1% to 0.0715p.

Blue Star Capital (LON: BLU) says investee company Dynasty Gaming & Media is acquiring the assets of Googly Media for $7.6m. The combined business will be valued at $15m, but that is much lower than expected. Blue Star Capital, which will convert $75,000 of loan notes into shares, previously valued its investment at £5.45m and it is now worth £450,000. The share price dived 44.8% to 0.04p.

Sareum (LON: SAR) issued a trading statement on Tuesday afternoon. The drug developer’s interim loss will be higher. The fall n the share price means that Sareum has not been able to draw down on its RiverFort subsidiary and it needs to raise additional cash. The share price declined a further 27.3% to 20p.

Medical imaging and data analytics services provider Ixico (LON: IXI) says 2023-24 revenues will be lower than expected at between £5.2m-£5.9m. Capital constraints are hitting the spending of biopharma clients. This has led to the postponement of trials. Cavendish expects a full year loss of £2.9m. The share price fell 16.2% to 7.125p.

Global EV sales increase in 2024 YTD, BYD world’s top exporter

Global Electric Vehicle sales have increased by around a third in early 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to data complied by EV research house, Rho Motion.

EV sales total 1.9m globally so far in 2024 compared to 1.5m the same period in 2023.

Charles Lester, Leading EV Data Analyst at Rho Motion, said: “We’re encouraged to see the global EV sales steadily increasing year on year as the global market has grown by 32% so far n 2024. Relatively new regions to EVs such as Latin America and the SE Asia peripheries are rapidly expanding and we can expect these to be the fastest growing markets for some time to come.” 

China was the strongest region for sales growth with the US and Canada not far behind.

In 2024 year-to-date, China recorded a 34% increase in sales, with BYD’s ascendancy integral to global sales growth. BYD is China’s top domestic EV brands and has exported 60,000 units during the period making it the world’s largest exporter.

China’s growing dominance in the EV space was highlighted by BYD overtaking Volkswagen as the country’s top-selling brand.

“In recent months, China has been the point of concern [for Volkswagen] as BYD surpassed Volkswagen to become the top-selling brand in the country,” said Orwa Mohamad, Analyst at Third Bridge.

“Volkswagen faces challenges in China, including perception as an old legacy player, and stiff competition from domestic brands on EV innovation and software. Our experts say Chinese customers tend to favour more innovative and affordable cars from local brands such as BYD, XPeng, Zeekr, and SAIC.”

When will the Bank of England cut interest rates?

The timing of the Bank of England’s first move to reduce borrowing costs after a two-year hiking cycle is approaching.

After 14 rate hikes taking interest rates from 0.1% to 5.25%, the next move will almost certainly be a cut. Another hike would wreak havoc on UK financial assets.

The BoE has repeatedly said it will react to economic data. Many would argue recent data warrants lower interest rates.

Inflation has fallen but not yet hit the BoE’s 2% target. Indeed, the UK’s latest CPI reading of 4% is still substantially greater than where the Bank of England would like to see it.

However, ensuring inflation hits 2% is not a precursor to rate cuts. The Bank of England’s rate-setting panel, the MPC, will be aware that the OBR sees inflation falling to 2% in the coming months, echoing the BoEs’ forecasts. 

The Bank of England has held off cutting rates to reduce the risk of inflation heating up again. This now looks unlikely. The significant risk for the BoE and the UK economy is that it is too late to start easing.

Growth is slowing, and the UK recession has done much of the heavy lifting for the Bank of England regarding reducing prices. If a disinflation cycle starts to build, the Bank of England could well find inflation languishing below the target rate.

Although the UK grew 0.2% in January, its economic data is starting to show signs of weakness. We all know the UK entered a recession in Q4 and is walking down a well-trodden path.

The UK entered a recession due to lower consumer spending, which is usually the first domino to fall. Next is jobs, and then loan defaults rise. We are already seeing signs of a slowdown in the UK jobs market after the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and vaccines fell in early 2024.

If the BoE isn’t careful, the recession could well be a lot deeper than the shallow recession everyone is predicting. January’s GDP growth will encourage many, but we need to see more positive data points to establish robust growth.

“While this seems positive, GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in the three months to January in line with our forecast last month. In broader terms, UK economic growth has been near-zero since 2022 and GDP per head remains lower than pre-Covid,” said Paula Bejarano Carbo, NIESR Economist.

The Bank of England has to move fast and will likely cut rates by June.

After January’s GDP was released, Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said, “These figures are unlikely to be a game changer for Bank of England policymakers, with a June date now largely the earliest expected for an interest rate cut.”

Bond yields are pricing a cut. Equity markets are pricing a cut. Interest rate futures are pricing a cut. This will force the BoE’s hand before long.

Balfour Beatty jumps as stronger construction activity drives revenue growth, dividend hiked

Balfour Beatty shares were higher on Wednesday after the construction services group released 2023’s full-year results revealing a year of progress in terms of profits and revenue.

Revenue grew 7% to £9.6bn and underlying profit from operations (PFO) rose 2% to £236m. Profit before tax fell due to the impact of disposals.

Balfour Beatty shares were up 9% to 360p at the time of writing.

“Balfour Beatty has built a sturdy reputation with investors in recent years. The international infrastructure firm has consistently produced growing profits and delivered attractive shareholder returns. This morning’s earnings update will further cement that reputation,” said Mark Crouch, analyst at investment platform eToro.

“The business reported a jump in revenue and profits for 2023. Despite a marginal dip in the order book, they expect growth to continue into 2025. More welcome news for shareholders was the increase of the dividend and share buyback program, with the latter being raised to £100m, set to complete by December 2024. All are very good signs.”

Balfour Beatty’s outlook was particularly encouraging. The company said, ‘The Board expects an increase in PFO from its earnings-based businesses in 2024, with growth accelerating in 2025.’ The group sees investment in infrastructure projects supporting earnings in the coming periods as well as positive contributions from disposals.

Shareholders will enjoy a 10% increase in the final dividend to 11.5p.

UK economy returns to growth in January as constrcution and retail bounce back

The UK economy shook off the recessionary environment in January and returned to growth as consumer spending rose and construction activity boosted growth.

UK GDP grew 0.2% in January after falling 0.1% in December.

“The UK economy snapped back to growth in January, adding fuel to the fire of speculation that the recession will indeed be super-short and ultra-mild,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The latest snapshot showed that GDP was estimated to have come in at 0.2%, and while the economy is hardly shooting the lights out in terms of growth, there will be relief that light has emerged at the end of a difficult tunnel for many companies.”

The sectors associated with sogginess last year were the ones at the forefront of growth this year. A well documented slow down in the UK property market showed signs of reversal and consumer spending perked up after a poor December.

“It’s noteworthy that sectors like construction, retail, and wholesale have contributed to this growth, showing pockets of resilience within the economy,” said Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer at Moneyfarm.

However, before everyone gets overly excited about progress in the economy, Paula Bejarano Carbo, Economist at National Institute of Economic and Social Research highlighted the average growth over the three months to the end of January was still negative and suggested much more was needed for sustained growth in the UK economy.

“While this seems positive, GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in the three months to January in line with our forecast last month,” explained Paula Bejarano Carbo.

“In broader terms, UK economic growth has been near-zero since 2022 and GDP per head remains lower than pre-Covid. To escape the low-growth trap, structural changes are needed, such as an increase in public investment, particularly in infrastructure, education and health – which would also support growth in business investment.”

FTSE 100 extends gains after US CPI comes in hotter than expected, financials gain

The FTSE 100 made healthy gains on Tuesday despite US CPI inflation coming in hotter than expected as financial helped propel London’s leading index to the best intraday levels since January.

The FTSE 100 touched highs of 7,764 on Tuesday, a similar level the index had retreated from on several occasions in January. Should the index break above this level, it will attack levels not seen since April 2023.

“The blue-chip UK index was led by a rally in financials including a 3.1% gain from Prudential and a 2% rise from Standard Chartered. Interestingly, nearly all sectors were in positive territory, implying that investors were feeling upbeat across the board which is a healthy situation to have in markets,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Investor sentiment was boosted by slowing UK wage growth which raises the chances of the Bank of England cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.”

The UK unemployment rate has increased to 3.9%, and wage growth slowed to 6.1%. Job vacancies also fell as the recession cooled the UK jobs market. While this isn’t great news for the underlying economy, it is excellent news for traders longing for easier monetary policy.

The FTSE 100 was 1% higher at the time of writing.

US CPI

It was a different story in the US. CPI inflation came in hotter than expected – but not to the extent that it would prevent the Federal Reserve from rates in the summer, and this buoyed equity bulls.

US equities jumped on the open as US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.2% in the year to February.

“The recent data series came in slightly above expectations, particularly regarding core inflation. While this doesn’t derail the progress the Fed is making, it highlights the challenge of addressing inflation and getting it back to the 2% target,” said Ryan Brandham, Head of Global Capital Markets, North America at Validus Risk Management.

“US yields have been gradually declining throughout March, but this data might cause them to increase in the coming days as traders debate what it means for potential cuts in the US later this year.”

The merry-go-round of ‘will they, won’t they’ expectations of when the Federal Reserve will cut rates will continue, but, for today at least, the data suggests rate cuts are very much on the table for June/July.

Persimmon

Persimmon was the FTSE 100’s biggest faller, with a 2.2% loss, after the housebuilder said completions would increase only marginally in 2024 compared to 2023. Revenue sank 28%, and operating profits more than halved in 2023.

“Persimmon’s latest set of results will make for tough reading for shareholders after the UK housebuilder reported a 52% drop in profits in 2023, citing build cost inflation and weaker demand hampering performance. Also, the company’s cash position, while still relatively healthy, has fallen considerably,” said Adam Vettese, analyst at investment platform eToro.

“Persimmon shares looked to be mounting a recovery in the last six months, rallying over 40%, and after what has been a torrid few years for the housebuilder, investors would have been eager to see this continue at pace. However, as these results indicate, so much depends on factors outside of Persimmon’s control.”

H&T set to continue growth trajectory

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AIM-quoted pawnbroker H&T (LON: HAT) reported strong growth in profit and further progress is expected this year despite higher wage costs. The pledge book is growing and the acquisition of Marcroft boosts parts of the business with potential for growth.

The AIM-quoted company is benefitting from increasing pawnbroking demand and higher gold prices. The retail side has been tougher, but this is being refocused on lower price points that are more in keeping with customer demand. Pre-owned jewellery margins remain high, but new jewellery margins slumped.

The pawnbroking book grew 28% to £128.9m. Group 2023 revenues were 27% ahead at £220.8m. Retail and other services were the only parts of the business making a lower profit contribution. Pre-tax profit was up from £19m to £26.4m. This enabled a rise in the dividend from 15p/share to 17p/share.

The recent Maxcroft acquisition increases exposure to self-employed and small business pawnbroking loans. The security is the same as for individuals. It also boosts the foreign currency business.

The new £85m debt facility means that H&T has all the cash it requires to expand the business, even after the £11.3m paid for Marcroft. A further 50 stores will be refreshed this year and up to 12 new branches could be opened.

The share price is 10.9% higher at 377p, which means that some of the downgrade-related losses from earlier in the year have been clawed back. The prospective multiple is seven and the forecast yield is 5.3%.