A tactical approach to FTSE 350 sector allocation with Marc Kimsey

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to be joined by Marc Kimsey, Director of F&O Research, for a broad discussion focused on the tactical approach to global equities.

Register for the UK Investor Magazine Investor Conference at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) 13th March

We explore the potential scenarios for UK and US equities in the coming months in the run-up to elections.

Consideration is paid to interest rates and how the equity market may behave in reaction to upcoming decisions.

Marc provides insights into a selection of UK equities highlighting FTSE 350 companies he feels are worth adding to a watchlist.

We touch on Taylor Wimpey, Barclays, and JD Sports.

Download Report: Two US Stocks Picks for 2024

AIM movers: Renalytix broadens test coverage in the US and Beacon Resources sidetrack

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GCM Resources (LON: GCM) shares appear to be reassured by yesterday’s announcement that it is seeking a replacement for the chairman Christian Taylor-Wilkinson, who resigned early in February when shareholders made a move to remove him from the board, as well as a new non-exec. All resolutions were passed at the AGM, except for number five which was not tabled because of the chairman’s resignation. The share price rebounded 39% to 2.85p.

Renalytix (LON: RENX) has broadened the US government coverage for kidneyintelX.dkd testing. This is a FDA de Novo marketing authorised test and the status has enabled it to be added to the 10-year Governmentwide acquisition contract for early stage kidney disease bioprognostic testing services. The fee is $950 per reportable result. The share price is 10% higher at 33p.

Results from the drill programme of Thor Energy (LON: THR) projects Wedding Bell and Radium Mountain in Colorado confirm the potential for minable resources. Uranium grades were promising. Uranium spot prices are the highest they have been for a decade. Further drilling will take place. There could be a maiden resource before the end of 2024, according to WH Ireland. The share price rose 10% to 1.65p.

Retail software supplier itim Group (LON: ITIM) has released a trading statement following its contract announcement earlier in the week. Revenues of £16.1m were in line with expectations and annualised recurring revenues were steady at £13.2m. Services revenues were higher. The 2023 loss forecast has been trimmed from £1.3m to £1.1m. The share price improved a further 7.62% to 32.5p.

FALLERS

Beacon Energy (LON: BCE) has raised £2.6m at 0.05p/share. The share price dived 27.6% to 0.525p. Around two-thirds of the cash will go on drilling a sidetrack for the troublesome SCHB-2 well in Germany. The rig should be onsite in April and production could commence in May. That could generate cash of around £700,000/month.

Avacta (LON: AVCT) initially wanted to raise £20m via a placing at 50p/share and raise a further £6.8m via a retail offer. The total fundraise has been increased from up to £26.8m to up to £32.5m. There is already £16.6m in the bank and the rate of cash outflow appears to be declining. The cash will fund further progress with dose expansion and the phase 2 efficacy studies for its main clinical programme AVA6000 and additional working capital up until late 2025. Anything raised in excess of £20m will be spent on AVA3996 and further potential Affirmer drug development platforms. There are plans to sell the diagnostics division and for a possible Nasdaq listing. The share price slumped 30.7% to 51.75p.

Medical imaging technology developer Polarean Imaging (LON: POLX) still had cash of $6.1m at the end of 2023 and that should last until October. Additional financing is required. If a total financing of $10m can be secured, then NUKEM Isotopes will commit $2.5m and Bracco $2m. Any funding is likely to be in the second quarter of 2024 and the HMRC has confirmed that £2.5m of the investment would be eligible for EIS relief. If $10m is raised, then the company will be able to finalise the FDA plan for the gas exchange trial and have enough cash to last into 2026. Profitability is projected for late 2027 so more cash will be required in the future. The share price declined 26.5% to 3.75p, which is a new low.

Digital marketing services provider Silver Bullet Data Services (LON: SBDS) increased 2023 revenues by 42% to £8.3m, which included £2.8m from 4D AI as global brands adopt the service. The loss has been reduced. There is already committed revenues of more than £5m for 2024, including the recently announced Mars Petcare contract extension. The share price dipped 10.5% to 170p.

Video editing technology developer Blackbird (LON: BIRD) is raising £1.05m at 6p/share. The cash will help fund the full launch of content creation tool elevate.io. There was £5.9m in cash prior to the fundraising and the company says that there was interest from investors wanting to buy shares. The fundraising has knocked 9.42% off the share price leaving it at 6.25p. Near to the end of 2021, £7.5m net was raised at 28p a share.

Ex-dividends

Driver Group (LON: DRV) is paying a final dividend of 0.75p/share and the share price is unchanged at 28p.

Sylvania Platinum (LON: SLP) is paying an interim dividend of 1p/share and the share price fell 1.5p to 50.5p.

Tekcapital progresses AI investment strategy with fundraise

Tekcapital has taken an important step in the roll-out of its AI investment strategy by securing capital to allocate to investments in the area.

The company raised £2m by way of a placing at 10p with a proportion earmarked for investment into a ‘Generative AI portfolio company opportunity’.

The remaining funds will be used for working capital, repayment of a loan, and the launch of autonomous vehicle safety company Guident’s new headquarters.

Tekcapital first announced its intentions to diversify its portfolio into the booming AI sector last year, and today’s announcement signifies a material step toward making an investment in Generative AI. The company has hired two experts in the area: Dr Russ Salakhutdinov, the former director of AI at Apple, and Alexander Mordvintsev, who is currently a senior research scientist at Google.

“We are pleased to consummate this funding round which will enable us to strengthen our balance sheet, complete the build-out of Guident’s new RMCC to facilitate servicing its growing client base, and form a fifth portfolio company in the Generative AI space,” said Clifford M. Gross Ph.D., Executive Chairman of Tekcapital.

Ocado shares jump as EBITDA increases on rising revenue

Ocado shares rose on Thursday after the food technology and premium online grocery company announced rising revenues and a swing to positive EBITDA.

Ocado Group saw strong revenue growth in 2023, with total group revenue increasing 9.9% to £2.8 billion.

This growth was driven by a 44% increase in revenue from Ocado’s Technology Solutions division to £429 million, thanks to the addition of new customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) during the year. Meanwhile, Ocado Logistics revenue grew 1% to £680.5 million and Ocado Retail, Ocado’s premium online supermarket business, saw a 7% revenue increase to £2,408.8 million.

This topline growth filtered down to the bottom line, with the Group swinging to a positive adjusted EBITDA of £51.6 million, versus a £74.1 million loss last year. All three divisions were profitable, with Technology Solutions generating £15.4 million in EBITDA, Ocado Logistics £30.1 million, and Ocado Retail rebounding to a £10.4 million profit.

Improved profitability reflects lower operating costs, particularly for the Ocado Smart Platform direct costs which declined from 2.02% to 1.65% of installed sales capacity. Ocado also continued to tightly manage cash, reducing the underlying cash outflow by £356 million versus the prior year.

Ocado shares were 4.8% higher at the time of writing underscoring a well-received update.

“I am pleased to report good progress across the Group in 2023. Our technology is transforming the way people shop for food as we help some of the world’s best and most innovative retailers set the bar for excellence in grocery ecommerce worldwide. We opened three new state-of-the-art robotic CFCs; in Chiba city (near Tokyo) in Japan, Calgary in Canada, and Luton here in the UK and increased the amount of installed capacity for our clients by a quarter. We now have installed capacity at our retail partners for gross annual grocery sales of over £8bn,” said Tim Steiner, Chief Executive Officer, Ocado.

“Ocado Retail, our JV with M&S in the UK, has had significant success growing customer numbers, taking online grocery market share and rebuilding profitability, proving, once again, the attractions of our online model. Ocado Intelligent Automation, which brings our world-leading Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems (“ASRS”) technology, and the automation of warehouses to sectors outside of grocery, signed its first deal with pharmaceutical giant McKesson in Canada.”

Avacta shares sink after heavily discounted placing

Avacta shares sank on Thursday after the healthcare therapeutics and diagnostics company announced a heavily discounted placing.

Avacta raised £25.7m via a placing at 50p, a 34% discount to the closing price on 27th February. The company has secured funds from new and existing investors, including high-quality institutions and a European specialist healthcare fund.

Retail investors were able to partake in the fundraise through a REX retail offering.

Avacta shares were 30% lower at 52p in early trade on Thursday.

Avacta said it plans to use the majority of the proceeds from the placing to fund expansion of clinical trials and Phase 2 efficacy studies for its lead drug candidate AVA6000. The new funding will also provide working capital through the end of 2025.

AVA6000 is a modified form of the chemotherapy drug doxorubicin, designed to target tumors more precisely. The dose expansion trials are expected to begin in the second half of 2024 in the United States, followed by a Phase 2 efficacy study pending FDA approval. The trials will focus on treating rare cancers such as soft tissue sarcomas.

“Under very challenging market conditions we have raised financing that allows Avacta to progress at full speed its lead pre|CISION? targeted chemotherapy, AVA6000, into the expansion and Phase 2 efficacy studies. The emerging clinical data from the Phase 1 safety study strongly supports our belief that pre|CISION can change the way in which cancer is treated and we are pleased that we are now in a position to also progress the broader pre|CISION pipeline,” said Alastair Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Avacta Group.

In 2022, Avacta raised approximately £64m to fund the M&A-driven expansion of its Diagnostics division it now says it is seeking to divest in a way that maximises shareholder value.

AIM movers: New management and cash for Verditek and Image Scan orders decline

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Shares in Verditek (LON: VDTK) recovered 56.3% to 0.125p after it entered into a conditional sale agreement for its solar business for £528,340, which will be satisfied by the surrender of loan notes plus interest. Shareholder approval is required. Bob Holt and John Charlton are joining the board and the existing directors resigning. Both of them were involved in turning around Sureserve. There is £300,000 being raised at 0.075p/share and Bob Holt will loan the company up to £300,000, which is convertible at 0.075p/share. There are plans to raise a further £1.5m and change the name to EARNZ, which stands for Energy Advisory Regeneration Net Zero.

Supercapacitors manufacturer Cap-XX (LON: CPX) says outstanding orders are increasing and total $1.3m, including $800,000 to be shipped in the current financial year. Cap-XX decided not to appeal a patent judgement in the litigation with Maxwell/Tesla, which is claiming court-related costs. This should be a minor additional amount for Cap-XX, which is in negotiations to resolve all matters. The share price improved 31.3% to 0.525p.

Craven House Capital (LON: CRV) investee company BioVitos has reversed into Stockholm Stock Exchange listed Hemcheck Sweden. Craven House Capital owned 24.5% of BioVitos and is swapping this for shares in the listed entity. Craven House Capital has negative net assets and BioVitos is the only one of five pre-revenue investments that has a valuation – $1.14m. The share price rose by one-third to 20 cents.

Animalcare (LON: ANCR) is selling its majority shareholding in UK pet microchipping company Identicare for £24.9m. This should boost net cash to £27m, which can be invested in new opportunities. Identicare had net liabilities of £6.9m and pre-tax profit was £100,000. The share price rose 16.9% to 225p.

FALLERS

X-ray imaging technology developer Image Scan (LON: IGE) says trading has been slow in terms of sales and orders. At the end of January 2024, the order book was £611,000. There will be a first half loss. Results will be significantly second half weighted and there could be a full year profit. The share price slumped 21.4% to 1.1p.

Yesterday evening, Angus Energy (LON: ANGS) posted a circular to gain shareholder approval to issue shares relating to the new £20m loan facility provided by Trafigura. This will help finance restarting production at the Brockham field in southern England. Aleph Commodities will receive £750,000 in shares for assistance in securing the facility and £256,000 for providing a bridge facility. The recipients of revenues shares from three producing wells at the Saltfleetby field have agreed to payment in either cash or shares. The share price fell 13.3% to 0.325p.

Autonomous mining equipment developer Tribe Technology (LON: TRYB) has entered a joint development agreement with Veracio Australia, a world leader in core and chip sampling. The two companies develop a new system for blast hole chip sampling. The share price declined 7.41% to 6.25p to a new low. The September 2023 flotation price was 10p.

FTSE 100 hit by UK and China housing concerns, poor St James’s Place and Reckitt Benckiser results

On Wednesday, the FTSE 100 was firmly in the red as concerns about the UK and Chinese property markets dragged on the index. Sharp declines for St James’s Place and Reckitt Benckiser compounded negative sentiment.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.65% at the time of writing.

“Housing woes are front and centre today as investors reflect on the difficulties of UK housebuilders and a deepening property crisis in China. The FTSE 100 has been on the back foot in early trade, with little to ignite a wave of buying, as investors also await a key inflation report stateside,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown

“Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey has underlined the pressure high borrowing costs have put on sales rates, while inflationary winds have whipped up costs.  Shares fell in early trade as investors digested the 49% plunge in annual profits but also the prospect of clouds staying low over the housing sector in the coming months. The outlook has disappointed with the company expecting a further fall in completed home sales and the squeeze on profit margins continuing.”

Taylor Wimpey shares were down 2.2%, dragging Persimmon 1.4% lower with them.

However, the major weight on the index was China’s property market. Miners fell as further bad news from the world’s second-largest economy cast doubt over the demand for natural resources.

“China’s property house of cards has wobbled again as the woes of another huge real estate developer Country Garden come into sharp focus. A liquidation petition has been filed against it in Hong Kong by one of its creditors, Ever Credit Limited. The development threatens to reignite concerns about the fragility of the sector and cast doubt on efforts made by authorities to shore it up and stop contagion,” Streeter said.

Anglo American was down 2% and Rio Tinto dropped 0.8%.

St James’s Place and Reckitt Benckiser

Following the release of full-year results, St James’s Place and Reckitt Benckiser were the biggest fallers on Wednesday.

St James’s Place cut its dividend after recording a £426m provision for increasing complaints. The wealth manager’s assets under management grew, but investors were clearly distraught with the dividend slashing. St James’s Place shares were down 28% at the time of writing.

Reckitt Benckiser shares fell 11% after announcing revenue that missed expectations. Higher costs and lower sales resulted in materially lower operating margins. Volumes fell as customers shunned the group’s premium brands in favour of budget options amid the cost of living crisis.

St. James’s Place slashes dividend as complaints redress wipes out profits

St. James’s Place is a shell of its former self. The business model that enriched the company with high fees for managing individuals’ wealth has come crashing down around them, culminating in a dividend cut and a loss for 2023.

Today, the company issued its results for the year ending 31 December 2023, highlighting the impact of £426m redress provisions, which have entirely wiped out profits after tax.

St. James’s Place shares were down 28% at the time of writing and, at 442p, are worth around 25% of the stock’s all-time highs.

The company has set aside a substantial amount for customer complaints as regulatory pressure increases on high fees and the quality of advice services.

In the context of the FCA’s push to improve outcomes for retail investors, St. James’s Place’s struggles as a business represent a fairer and better value wealth management market for UK savers.

St. James’s Place has been criticised for unfair charges, including prohibitive exit fees.

Wealth firms have been found to fail customers in terms of ongoing customer service, and this accounts for a large proportion of the redress set aside by the company today.

“The Cash result for the year of £68.7 million (2022: £410.1 million) has been significantly impacted by an assessment into the evidencing and delivery of historic ongoing servicing and the provision we have established for potential client refunds,” said Mark FitzPatrick, Chief Executive Officer.

“This work was undertaken following a significant increase in complaints, particularly in the latter part of 2023, mostly linked to the delivery of ongoing servicing.”

The post-tax Cash result of just £68.7 million was significantly impacted by a one-off £426.0 million pre-tax provision for potential client refunds related to historical service evidencing and delivery.

Net inflows fell to £5.1bn as assets under management grew to £168bn compared to £148bn in 2022 due to higher asset prices. The problem for St. James’s Place is the level of fees they will able to generate from assets under management in the future.

A major blow for investors is the slashing of dividends.

SJP has declared a final dividend of 8p per share, bringing the total dividend for 2023 to 23.83p per share. This is down from 52.78p in 2023.

In the future, SJP has revised its dividend policy to set total annual shareholder distributions at 50% of the full-year Underlying cash result. Such a policy will likely lead to much lower dividends on an ongoing basis.

Reckitt Benckiser shares slump as margins shrink

Reckitt Benckiser’s 2023 full-year results are a blow to investors. Expectations were conservative, yet the company missed revenue guidance, and shares fell accordingly.

The company was expected to generate £14.75bn revenue in 2023. However, the impact of the cost-of-living crisis meant the owner of brands including Strepsils, Nurofen, Durex, and Dettol, only brought in £14.61bn.

In percentage terms, the miss wasn’t amazingly drastic, but this is a low-margin business reliant on high volumes.

The impact of higher input costs and lower-than-expected revenues devastated operating margins which fell by 5.2% to 17.3%. Diluted EPS fell 29.6%.

“Shareholders of Reckitt Benckiser will be disappointed with this morning’s Q4 earnings update, as the consumer goods retailer missed net sales expectations for the period, citing weakness in cold and flu season products, managing only minimal net revenue growth of 3.5%,” said Mark Crouch, analyst at investment platform eToro.

Reckitt Benckiser shares were 10% lower at the time of writing and were approaching the lows of the pandemic.

The company has been seen as a safe haven traditionally but Reckitt’s is rapidly losing this categorisation as consumers shun expensive brands in the face of rising prices.

The pricing gap between budget options and Reckitt’s premium offering is growing while the perception of quality is narrowing. This is a big problem for a company that needs growing sales to support profitability.

“So much for the idea that big brand owners are bulletproof during periods of higher inflation. It’s clear from industry trends that cash-strapped consumers have shifted to cheaper alternatives including supermarket own-brand items,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“As the owner of a large portfolio of well-known brands, Reckitt has found life a lot tougher and its latest results suggest its pricing power isn’t as strong as some people thought. The idea that it can keep pushing up prices without damaging demand has gone out the window as its fourth quarter numbers are truly miserable. It looks like people are voting with their feet and going for the cheaper option.

“Reckitt’s results are plagued by a multitude of problems. Sales volumes fell 4.3% in the fourth quarter which is a worrying sign for the company. It reported declining health sales, a big drop in nutrition revenue and revealed that some employees had been up to no good with regards to accounting issues in the Middle East. For a company that was once seen as an industry leader, Reckitt has been a big disappointment in recent years and the latest results keep that theme going.”

Taylor Wimpey shares fall as profit sinks in 2023

Taylor Wimpey shares were firmly lower on Tuesday after the housebuilder announced 2023FY results and said the first half of the current year would see lower margins due to pricing pressure.

Against the backdrop of rising mortgage rates and a cost of living crisis, Taylor Wimpey’s revenue fell 20% to £3.5bn, and operating profit sank 49% to £70m.

“Taylor Wimpey’s put in a relatively resilient showing given the difficult market conditions of 2023. Full-year operating profits came in at the top end of group guidance, but this still represents a roughly 50% fall from the prior year’s levels,” said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Taylor Wimpey shares were down 3.5% at the time of writing.

Investors will hope the worst conditions of the current UK housing market cycle are behind us, with mortgage rates showing signs of improvement and early signs of buyer interest picking up.

Indeed, the company is confident 2024 will generate a similar level of completions as 2023. Taylor Wimpey is targeting the completion of 9.5k to 10k homes in 2024 which is only marginally lower than the 10,766 homes completed in 2023.

“A combination of real house price declines and lower mortgage rates have helped to ease some of the affordability pressures for buyers since the beginning of 2023, and these trends appear to have carried into the new year. According to Rightmove, the first six weeks of 2024 saw a 7% increase in buyer enquiries year-on-year,” Chiekrie said.

Although there are some indications of improvement, the slowdown in the UK housing market last year was material, and we are not entirely out of the woods in terms of higher mortgage rates, with many lenders increasing rates in recent days.

The drop in the share price today will reflect not only the cloudy outlook for the market but uncertainties around a CMA investigation announced within a week, which could curtail margins further.

Despite the gloomy reaction in shares today, there may be positive developments for Taylor Wimpey at next week’s budget. Reports suggest the UK government could be looking at 99% mortgages – a measure that will surely fire up demand for new homes.

“The potential introduction of a 99% mortgage is a significant boom for the housing market, particularly since many of Taylor Wimpey’s buyers are first-time buyers,” said Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge.