UK inflation surges to 3% as food and energy prices spike

UK CPI inflation has soared to 3% in January from 2.5% in December as fuel and food lifted average prices.

Economists had expected inflation to increase to 2.8% in January and the higher reading will raise questions about the Bank of England’s next move on interest rates.

“Inflation is back to behaving like a caffeinated flea, bouncing higher in January, after December’s bigger-than-expected fall,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The bounce was even bigger than the market had expected, so while it’s not going to set off a cacophony of alarm bells at the Bank of England, it’s not going to make them any more enthusiastic about rate cuts in the immediate future either.”

There was a consensus among analysts that while the CPI reading could prevent a rate cut at the BoE next meeting, the inflation spike’s composition meant it was likely to fall again in the coming months and increase the chance of borrowing cost cuts later in the year.

“Inflation returning to 3% should, oddly, not be too alarming,” said George Lagarias, Chief Economist at Forvis Mazars.

“The Bank of England tends to dismiss energy and food cost spikes, which contributed the most towards price rises, and prefers to monitor the more “sticky” parts of inflation, like wages.”

The market reaction was relatively benign. The pound ticked gently higher against the dollar, and the FTSE 100 showed little signs of movement in early trade.

Physiomics and MediaZest with Hybridan’s Niall Pearson

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome Niall Pearson, Director of Hybridan, to the podcast to lift the lid on two exciting small caps: Physiomics and MediaZest.

Physiomics is a leading oncology consultancy that leverages advanced computational modelling and simulation to optimise drug development. The company has supported over 100 commercial projects spanning discovery, pre-clinical and clinical studies. Through their Model Informed Drug Development approach, Physiomics helps biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies make more informed decisions and streamline their development processes.

MediaZest specialises in providing cutting-edge audio-visual solutions, with a particular focus on digital signage and audio systems for prominent retailers, brand owners and corporations. The company offers a comprehensive end-to-end service, encompassing everything from initial content creation and system design through to installation, technical support and ongoing maintenance, positioning itself as an integrated solutions provider in the audio-visual sector. The company is increasing recurring revenues and expects to become EBITDA-positive in the near term.

AIM movers: Signs of improvement at Inspiration Healthcare and another shut down at Triton for Serica Energy

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Better news from Inspiration Healthcare (LON: IHC) and the share price rebounded 50.4% to 20.3p. A $6m contract has been won by the Neonatal division and the core business is doing well. However, there are further delays to the Middle East contract – the first shipment is awaiting custom clearance – and revenues in the year to January 2025 were £38.3m, rather than the £40.9m forecast. Underlying revenues were 0.8% better than expected, though. The loss was more than £2m. Most of the £1.25m of annual cost savings will come through this year when there should be a return to profit.

Media marketing platform developer SEEEN (LON: SEEN) says 2024 revenues grew from $2.1m to $3.2m following a strong second half. This suggests that the business is gaining momentum and the current annual run-rate for revenues is $5m, which is in line with forecasts. A large publisher has contracted SEEEN to manage its video library on YouTube. SEEN has IP that can maximise the income from these videos. Revenues were below forecasts but the positive outlook meant that the share price still jumped 46.2% to 4.75p.

Invinity Energy Systems (LON: IES) has signed a partnership with Frontier Power and it will provide the partner with flow batteries for potential projects supported by the UK’s long duration cap and floor mechanism, where applications should commence in the summer. Frontier Power has reserved up to 2GWh of manufacturing capacity to underpin its bids. There will be an upfront fee when projects have been won. There could also be international opportunities. The share price improved 8.33% to 13p.

Oil and gas explorer Corcel (LON: CRCL) has raised £2.72m at 0.16p/share, which was a premium to the previous closing price. The cash will be invested in increasing the stake in the Kwanza Basin and on studies ahead of a new seismic campaign in Angola, which should happen before the end of the year. There are warrants attached to the placing shares that could raise up to £3.8m if exercises. The share price rose 6.67% to 0.16p.

FALLERS

Serica Energy (LON: SQZ) says that problems caused by storm Eowyn have led to the shutting down of production from the 46%-owned Triton FPSO in the North Sea. The operator Daba identified damage to equipment. Repairs are underway and production should restart before the end of March. Serica Energy is likely to downgrade its full year production guidance from the current level of 4,000boe/day. The share price slipped 13% to 125.35p.

Transense Technologies (LON: TRT) reported interim figures showing revenues 36% ahead at £2.46m, although pre-tax profit was 13% lower at £550,000. Hiring is going on to build up the business to cope with further growth and this is holding back short-term profit. Full year pre-tax profit is expected to edge up to £1.6m this year, before slipping back to £1.3m in the year to June 2026. It should then return to growth. The company recently secured a new distribution agreement with Haltec Corporation, a US tyre valve company focused on mining, truck and aviation sectors. Cash was £1.19m at the end of 2024, but it rose to £1.87m at the end of January 2025. The share price declined 11.2% to 134.5p.

Katoro Gold (LON: KAT) plans to acquire 31 Explore, which has mining claims in Ontario, Canada. The mining claims include lithium bearing pegmatites and rare earth elements. There have been additional claims staked next to the Pearl lithium project since the announcement of the acquisition, which requires shareholder approval of resolutions at a general meeting to be held on 28 February. The consideration for the acquisition is 375 million warrants exercisable at 0.1p each and 375 million warrants exercisable at 0.15p each. Katoro Gold is raising £317,500 at 0.05p/share and another 38 million shares will be issued to pay fees. The par value of shares has to be reduced so that the shares can be issued at this price. The share price fell 5% to 0.0475p.

FTSE 100 steady as Antofagasta jumps

The FTSE 100 was trading in a holding pattern on Tuesday after positive UK jobs data helped fuel positive sentiment, but recent strength in the pound capped gains.

Much of the FTSE 100’s rally to all-time highs in the early weeks of 2025 can be attributed to a weakening pound and the support it provides for overseas earners. Now that the pound is strengthening, this support has morphed into a headwind which is weighing on the index.

“Strength in sterling is typically bad news for the UK’s flagship index because it hits the relative value of its constituents’ dominant overseas earnings,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

From a macro perspective, investors will have one eye on the beginning of Trump’s effort to bring the Ukraine war to an end, which has so far had a positive impact on European stocks.

Antofagasta shares gained on Tuesday after the copper miner said it was working towards increasing production amid rising copper prices.

‘Doctor Copper’ gets its nickname because the industrial metal’s many uses mean it can be a good guide to global economic health, so it is encouraging to see both the commodity and the share price of major producer Antofagasta start 2025 on an upward trend after last year’s dip,” Russ Mould explained. 

Mould continued to explain how falling interest rates have provided support for the copper price and reignited interest in Antofagasta after a challenging 2025.

“The copper price slid in summer 2024, amid worries about China in particular, as the world’s second-biggest economy grappled with a real estate bust and a slowdown in growth. But interest rate cuts worldwide, and the application of fiscal and monetary stimulus by Beijing to try and boost growth, are helping the industrial metal build some price momentum in 2025, a trend which Antofagasta will welcome,” Mould said.

BT was the top faller, sinking 6%, on the news it had been downgraded by Citi.

Intercontinental Hotels shares fell 3% despite the group announcing a 7% increase in full-year revenue and 10% jump in operating profit. Shareholders were more concerned about the $110m splurge on the Ruby hotel brand, which operates 20 hotels across Germany, Switzerland and Austria.

“Intercontinental Hotels Group has beaten analyst expectations this morning, with its biggest region, the United States performing particularly well. China continues to lag but despite this the group is continuing to add units in the country,” said Adam Vettese, market analyst at eToro.

“Ordinarily this, alongside a new $900m buyback programme as well as a 10% dividend hike might have seen shares bid well, but they are slightly off this morning as investors digest the relatively chunky outlay for the acquisition of Ruby hotels. There also may be an element of profit taking in play as shares have soared over 40% since the beginning of last year. Shareholders will now hope IHG can deliver more of the same and keep the growth trajectory up.”

Share Tip: Kitwave – having fallen back from the 2024 High of 409.50p, this group’s shares before its 2024 results look undervalued at 285p

Within the next fortnight we will see the 2024 Final Results being declared by Kitwave Group (LON:KITW), they will highlight the progression of the wholesale delivery business, together with its potential to carry on moving forward. 
The Business 
Established way back in 1987, following the acquisition of a single-site confectionery wholesale business based in North Shields, Kitwave is a delivered wholesale business, specialising in selling and delivering impulse products, frozen, chilled and fresh foods, alcohol, groceries and tobacco to approximately 46,000, mainly independent, cus...

Anglo American to sell nickel business for $500m

Anglo American is ramping up efforts to streamline its business amid takeover pressure from BHP with the sale of its nickel business.

Mining giant Anglo American has struck a deal to sell its Brazilian nickel business to Asian metals group MMG Limited in a transaction worth up to $500 million.

The sale, announced today, will see MMG acquire Anglo American’s two operating ferronickel facilities in Brazil—Barro Alto and Codemin—along with two undeveloped projects, Jacaré and Morro Sem Boné.

Under the terms of the agreement, Anglo American will receive an initial payment of $350 million when the deal completes. The company could earn an additional $100 million through a price-linked bonus scheme, whilst a further $50 million may be paid if MMG proceeds with developing the greenfield projects.

News of the nickel sale comes a day after Anglo American outlined the timeline for the listing of its platinum business.

“The sale of our nickel business after a highly competitive process marks a further important milestone towards simplifying our portfolio to create a more highly valued copper, premium iron ore, and crop nutrients business,” said Duncan Wanblad, Chief Executive of Anglo American.

“Today’s agreement, together with those signed in November 2024 to sell our steelmaking coal business, is expected to generate a total of up to $5.3 billion of gross cash proceeds, reflecting the high quality of our steelmaking coal and nickel businesses. MMG is well-respected as a safe and responsible operator and we believe our agreement represents a strong outcome not only for our shareholders, but also for our employees and Brazilian stakeholders. We will work together to ensure a successful transition.

“Anglo American’s portfolio focus, exceptional asset quality and growth options offer a differentiated investment proposition for investors. We are unlocking the inherent value of all of Anglo American as we create a much simpler, more resilient and agile business that will enable full value transparency in the market.”

Assura rejects KKR bid

Assura plc has unanimously rejected a takeover proposal from private equity firm KKR, declaring that the offer “materially undervalued” the healthcare property company and its future prospects.

The proposal, which was submitted to Assura’s board on 13 February, outlined a non-binding cash offer of 48 pence per share for the company. KKR has not submitted any revised offers since the rejection.

KKR has already submitted four offers, and one would think they’ll be back again before long with a refreshed bid.

Assura shares are down heavily over the past two years and trade at just 12x earnings with a 7% yield. There’s still plenty of wiggle room for KKR to snap up Assura at bargain prices.

In a related development, USS Investment Management Limited (USSIM), acting on behalf of the Universities Superannuation Scheme, announced it would not pursue an offer for Assura, either independently or as part of a consortium with KKR. This decision is binding except under specific circumstances detailed in USSIM’s separate announcement.

Peer group leading results and the special dividend roadmap with Tekcapital CEO Dr Clifford Gross

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to welcome Dr Clifford Gross, CEO of Tekcapital, back to the podcast to delve into the technology incubator’s 2024 portfolio results and what could be in store in 2025.

We start by reviewing the portfolio’s performance in 2024, paying particular attention to the impact of MicroSalt and GenIP’s IPOs.

Dr Clifford Gross outlines plans for Guident’s proposed NASDAQ listing and what it means for Tekcapital’s overall strategy.

We finish by exploring the roadmap for Tekcapital to return net asset value growth to shareholders via special dividends.

FTSE 100 ticks higher, BAE Systems soars

The FTSE 100 rallied on Monday amid a broad European rally driven by defence stocks sparked by positioning for greater defence spending.

Donald Trump’s approach to Ukraine peace negotiations has strengthened the argument that Europe must bolster its armed forces with investors quickly buying up defence shares, including London’s BAE Systems and Rolls Royce.

“European markets pushed ahead on Monday amid talk of greater defence spending, M&A activity and a series of important political meetings,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Ukraine peace talks topped the agenda, while Chinese president Xi Jinping undertook a rare meeting with some of China’s biggest tech firms to boost business sentiment.”

BAE Systems was the top FTSE 100 riser as investors tweaked their portfolios to reflect a possible increase in defence spending.

“Comments by secretary general Mark Rutte that NATO members will have to boost their defence spending by ‘considerably more than 3%’ of GDP put a rocket underneath defence stocks. BAE Systems jumped to the top of the FTSE 100 risers list as investors hoped its earnings prospects would be greatly improved. Mid-cap defence player Chemring also enjoyed a boost.

BAE Systems shares surged by 7% while Rolls-Royce gained 3%, reaching an all-time record high.

Away from the defence sector, Barclays and NatWest enjoyed buying pressure following a bout of profit-taking last week. Both banks dipped after releasing their results, but the weakness proved short-lived, with investors piling back in and sending the pair higher by more than 3%.

Barratt Redrow added 1%, and Persimmon was flat after Rightmove said house prices showed signs of slowing, although sales remained robust.

“UK asking prices rose modestly from January to February, slightly below the typical seasonal gain, with the year-on-year increase also slowing according to data from Rightmove,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Despite this, sales activity remains solid, with strong buyer demand and an uptick in new sellers. After a tough 2024, housebuilders have generally been upbeat about the outlook for 2025, and the steady market activity supports some cautious optimism.”

AIM movers: Springfield Properties land sale and Europa Metals deal terminated

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Tekcapital (LON: TEK) has published a portfolio update showing the progress made during 2024. This was a period when investee companies MicroSalt (LON: SALT) and GenIP (LON: GNIP) joined AIM. The remaining unquoted investee company Guident is set to join Nasdaq this year. The value of the investment portfolio increased 38% to $64.2m. NAV is 25p/share. The share price improved 9.41% to 10p, which is still a 60% discount to NAV. (see Tekcapital shares gain after releasing portfolio review, reaffirms special dividend strategy – UK Investor Magazine)

Scotland-based housebuilder Springfield Properties (LON: SPR) is selling land holdings in central Scotland to Barratt for £64.2m and could sell further sites. This will contribute a significant profit in the year to May 2025. Springfield Properties will refocus on the north of Scotland. Trading has been weak so far in this financial year. Interim revenues declined 13%, but better margins meant that pre-tax profit recovered from £2m to £3.8m. Singer has downgraded its 2025-26 pre-tax profit forecast by 14% to £14.2m, but the dividend is expected to continue to recover. A net cash position is expected by 2027. The share price rebounded 9.14% to 107.5p.

Thor Energy (LON: THR) has completed the acquisition of 80.2% of Go Exploration and the payment is 466.5 million shares. A further 25 million shares were issued to Orana Corporate for consultancy services. Go Exploration is a hydrogen and helium explorer with a hydrogen and helium exploration licence in South Australia near to the Ramsay-1 and Ramsay-2 discoveries. An independent assessment is due to be published soon. The share price rose 8.33% to 0.65p.

MTI Wireless (MWE) has won a repeat antenna order worth $4m. This will be delivered in the period up to June 2026. The 2024 results will be published on 17 March. The share price increased 3.77% to 55p.

FALLERS

Trading in Europa Metals (LON: EUZ) shares recommenced this morning after the period of exclusivity over the potential purchase of Viridian Metals Ireland, which owns the Tynagh brownfield Pb/Zn/Cu/Ag project in the Republic of Ireland. Europa Metals has been unable to source funding for initial work on the project and is not going ahead with the deal. The share price dipped by one-fifth to 1.6p.

Surgery devices developer Creo Medical (LON: CREO) says core revenues were 74% ahead at £4m in 2024, which is well ahead of the forecast of £3.4m. The distribution operations have been sold leaving the company with net cash. Operating costs were reduced by £5m last year and the full benefit will be in 2025. Creo Medical is expected to remain loss-making, but it will not need to raise additional cash. The share price declined 8.73% to 17.25p.

Orosur Mining (LON: OMI) has completed phase one of its exploration joint venture for the El Pantano gold exploration project in Argentina and has a 51% stake following the $1m investment. Further investment of $2m would mean that Orosur Mining can own 100% of the project. The vendors will retain a 2% net smelter royalty. The plan is to define drill targets. The share price fell 4.05% to 13.625p.

Allergy Therapeutics (LON: AGY) says published data from its phase III G306 study for its grass allergen immunotherapy Grass MATA MPL shows a 20.3% improvement, which is much higher than for trials of other treatments. The treatment requires six injections rather than up to 100 injections and tablets of other treatments. The quality of life improves by 27.7%. A marketing authorisation application has been filed in Germany. The share price slipped 3.85% to 6p, but the share price is still on an upward trend.

Sound Energy (LON: SOU) has appointed Zeus as its nominated adviser and broker. The share price is 3.13% higher at 0.775p.