Associated British Foods rallies on broker upgrade

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have upgraded Associated British Foods (ABF:LON) from a sell to a buy and bumped up their price target to 3120p from 2755p. Expansion into the US and their £385 billion monthly retail sector is expected provide material improvements for ABF’s bottom line. The entry into the US market is expected to enhancement earnings to the tune of £720 million. Goldman Sachs says the poor performance of the sugar business is largely priced in and the current share price offers an attractive entry for investors. Shares in AB Foods trade 2.8% higher at 3033p at 14:40 in London trading.

Hornby launches Airfix crowdfunding project ‘Kitstarter’

Hornby, the model and collectibles specialist, has today announced it will be launching its own crowdfunding project in an effort to revive interest in the group’s Airfix products. Founded in 1939, Airfix grew to be a popular pastime of young boys who relished popping open boxes of World War 2 tanks and meticulously constructing wartime vehicles they had heard stories about. The age of the internet has almost killed this off and Hornby has gone about tackling this head on by utilising the internet to give individuals the opportunity to decide which models they would like to make and financially back items of choice. Those who partake in the crowdfunding project will be able to build an exclusive vintage Airfix model. Richard Ames, Hornby Chief Executive Officer: “This is a really exciting initiative for Airfix. We have a very large back-catalogue of model kits, many that are still remembered fondly by our consumers. We get lots of feedback about which models people would like us to re-introduce. Our KitStarter crowd-funding platform will enable Hornby to interact much more closely with our consumers. This will help us gauge demand accurately and respond quickly to their requests. Then we can prioritise which models we re-introduce. “This initiative is one of a number where we are working hard to build closer links with our consumers. Many of these people are loyal enthusiasts who have been fans of Airfix for a long time and we enjoy interacting with them at model shows and via the model forums on our website. We are also confident that KitStarter will help us to reach a new generation of model enthusiasts that we can attract into the hobby.”

Ten essential crowdfunding tips

Read the Pitch Carefully Studying the pitch should be the first step in your research into the company, examining every detail of the pitch will build the base for your own research. Spread Your Risk This may seem elementary for seasoned investors but its mention is no less important. Diversification is key, whether your focus be in Blue Chip FTSE 100 companies, commodities or start-ups who finance themselves through Crowdfunding. Understand You Could Lose Your Entire Investment A vast amount of businesses fail in their first year. Crowdfunded businesses are not immune to this harsh statistic so you have to absolutely certain you can afford to lose your entire investment and that you do not need the funds any time soon. Check the Financials This includes the cash flow forecasts and balance sheet. Just because the idea may seem groundbreaking, it doesn’t guarantee financial success, if the company becomes overstretched and is forced to raise further funds you risk being diluted. Research the Key Personnel What are their previous successes? Have they failed in business before? Are they involved in any other business? How much have they personally invested? This is the absolute bare minimum you should be asking yourself before making an investment. Examine Competitors Important not only because competitors pose a threat to a young company but some of the bigger players maybe interested in acquiring the business you have invested in, this providing an exit strategy. If entering a highly fragmented market the chance of acquisition is lower than entering on with fewer individual companies. Research the Exit Methods Crowdfunding is considered highly illiquid, this means it is difficult to exit a position once you have entered it. Many projects say there exit plan would include a trade sale, an IPO or sale to private equity. Your due diligence should include potential suitors and there ability and propensity to acquire such a business. Also, a vital part of your research should be calculating a rough valuation for the business at such a point and the amount any acquirer is likely to pay. Don’t Fund a Project That Isn’t Offering Enough Equity or Yield The level of equity or the yield you will receive for investing in a Crowdfunding project should reflect the risk you are taking. Just like government bonds, the yield should be higher for those businesses that are more risky, you must carefully consider how much the business will remunerate you and the risk of you not getting your cash back. Be Clear On the Reason for Funding a Project This sounds obvious but Crowdfunding takes many different forms. You must decide whether you are funding an idea to receive rewards or make a real investment in an innovative start-up company. Many will use Crowdfunding to satisfy their philanthropic urges and other will seek out start-ups business that could change the way the world works and become highly lucrative for those early investors. Numerous projects offer attractive rewards for substantial levels of investment but you have to focus on whether the business has the legs show you any return on your hard earned cash. Test the Product/Service Yourself Unfortunately there isn’t a wide range of 3rd party analysis or opinion on Crowdfunding projects so to gain a strong understanding of the products and services on offer, experiencing them for yourself is highly desirable.    

Kingfisher posts 1.4% rise in profit

Kingfisher (KGF:LON) posted a 0.8% rise in Q1 like-for-like sales to £2.59 billion. The group which operates in excess of 12,000 in 11 countries said retail profit on a constant basis rose 1.4% to £150m. Kingfisher enjoyed solid results from UK based businesses Screwfix and B&Q and is positive on the outlook for European businesses given the backdrop of ECB stimulus. “We have made a solid start to the year against strong comparatives. In the UK, B&Q continued to grow sales volumes and Screwfix delivered an excellent performance, opening its 400(th) store in May. In France, our businesses performed broadly in line with the market.” Said CEO Veronique Laury The ‘One’ Kingfisher plan is also starting to bear fruit. The initiative set about unifying the group from the top down with active engagement from senior management. “We are also making good early progress with our ‘ONE’ Kingfisher plan to unlock our potential by creating a single, unified company where customer needs come first. Our first ‘sharp’ decisions are being worked on at pace. I am delighted that Arja Taaveniku, our Chief Offer & Supply Chain Officer, joined the team in May, and that the pilot of our unified IT system is on track. We are also pleased to report that we already have agreements to dispose of a quarter of the B&Q stores earmarked for closure. We look forward to sharing more of our plans as the year progresses.” Kingfisher shares traded 3.1% higher at 9.10am in London as investor cheered result from the company that have been questionable in recent years. The stock has rallied over 30% from lows seen in November 2014.

Brewin dolphin sinks as commissions drop

Shares in Brewin Dolphin (BRW:LON) sank 10% today after it reported profits of £37.9m in the half year to March 2015 compared to £22m in the same period a year ago. Despite the rise in profits investors dumped their shares as future margin pressure came into question. “We believe that lower revenue margins will persist for the following reasons: lower commissions; competition caused by increased transparency; use of third parties in securing flows, including lower margin agent business; an increase in average client size that results in an overall lower fee level per unit of FUM; and greater efficiency in managing portfolios (less turnover and thus less commission) said analysts at RBC Brewin Dolphin are at the higher end of the scale when it comes to dealing rates and fees charged, increased competition has led to some clients voting with their feet and seeking cheaper costs or a superior service elsewhere Commissions charged by Brewin Dolphin fell 17% to £40.1m. Brewin Dolphin made efforts to stream line the business by disposing of Stocktrade, there execution only service. The sale recorded a gain of £1m. Shares in Brewin Dolphin finished the day down 10.71% at 315.1p.

Chinese funds to consider as stocks soar

The Chinese stock market has rallied again and its leading index in Hong Kong hit another 7 year high. Private investors in China are shifting their money out of property into stocks, and those that don’t feel satisfied with the amount they have invested into shares are borrowing to boost their exposure. Some have asked if the latest rally in Chinese markets is a bubble. It may well be, but the question is when will it burst? Given Chinese accommodative monetary policy, it doesn’t seem like it will any time soon. The Chinese authorities are determined to stimulate the economy to meet their 7% growth target and their strategy this far has been to cut interest rates and implement huge infrastructure projects. One could argue that the impact on the real economy is yet to take hold but central bank easing has definitely had an impression on Chinese equity investors. The Shanghai composite has more than doubled over the last year. The domestic Chinese stock market is a highly regulated market in which individual shares are only easily available to domestic Chinese investors and foreign institutions. Those investors who have been able to do so have been buying Chinese stocks expecting further gains driven by continued stimulus and the eventual pickup in the Chinese economy. For those that feel that they have missed the boat, I would point towards Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index that doubled 2003-2006 and then rose over 90% in 18 months. If the current Chinese rally shapes up to be at all similar to the rally in the 2000’s investors may do well to consider broad based exposure through a selection of funds. Fund Ideas: Fidelity China Special Situations Better late than never. Anthony Bolton famously came out of retirement to establish this China focussed Investment Trust that set about benefitting from the rise of the Chinese consumer. He was 5 years too early but this fund has now been reborn and has a diverse exposure to Chinese large caps. iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:MCHI) This Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) provides targeted access to 85% on the Chinese stock market and encompasses some of the fast growing medium sized companies. The ETF is listed in the US and denominated in US Dollar so an investment in this ETF also comes with currency fluctuations. Given the potential of an US interest rate hike and Dollar strength it may prove beneficial to those investors based in the UK.

Oil rises on robust asian demand

Brent crude rallied on Monday as Japan and China showed signs of healthy demand. The Japanese Finance ministry has said their imports rose 9.1% in April from a year ago and China imported a record 7.32 million barrels in April as healthy car sales increased demand. Tension in the Middle East has also given traders reason to push prices higher. Having quickly taken the city of Ramadi 60 miles west of Baghdad, ISIS have set the Baiji refinery ablaze in an effort to deter oncoming Iraqi forces. The refinery was captured last year and the inferno is unlikely to have any major impact on global supply but it highlights the willingness of ISIS to sabotage oil assets if they are forced into retreat. Brent crude hit low in January but has since made a steady move higher as investors bet on higher prices in the second half of the year.  

European shares end in negative territory on Greece and Spain worries

European shares ended in the red as Greece sails towards a possible default. Investors were unnerved by comments from the Greek government that suggested they may not be able to make repayments to the IMF in early June. London and Frankfurt were closed but markets in Italy, France, Spain and Greece remained open and headed south in thin trade. The US was also closed so the full impact of recent Greek comments may not be seen until Tuesday’s trading. The results of Spanish local elections also sapped optimism after the ruling party suffered heavy losses. Mariano Rajoy bore the brunt of voter’s discontent after years of spending cuts and high unemployment. “There is no doubting that Greece has become a frequent recurring risk to investor sentiment in recent months, and there is potential for investor sentiment to be pulled down even further by the news that anti-austerity parties were declared victorious in several local elections in Spain,” said Jameel Ahmad, analyst at FXTM.

Greek Interior Minister says Greece has run out of money

The Greek interior minister Nikos Voutsis has today said what most economist have feared for a long time now, Greece will be unable to pay money due to The IMF in June. Mr Voutsis said Greece simply does not have the money to hand over. The announcement has come after weeks of fruitless discussions between Greece and the IMF, EU and ECB over how Greece is going to service its EUR320 billion debt mountain. Many, including some from within the Greek government say Greece will never be able to repay creditors. Greece is due to repay 4 instalments of EUR 1.6billion to the IMF throughout June, the first being on 5th June. The latest development brings a potential ‘Grexit’ closer and increases the probability of significant market turbulence in the coming weeks. “It would be a disaster for everyone involved,” said Greek finance minister Mr Varoufakis

Top Ten Investing Mistakes

  1. Lack of a strategy
When making an investment write down the reasons why you are placing your hard earned cash in the hands of CEOs that you have never met. It is important to be clear why you are entering an investment, when you plan to exit the investment and any factors that may cause you to rethink your initial strategy.
  1. Not cutting Loses
Crystallising a loss is notoriously difficult for inexperienced and unseasoned investors. There are graveyards full of investors that were unable to manage the downside risk of their portfolios and racked up heavy losses as a result. The hope that a share price will rebound is all too much for many investors as they watch a bad position become increasingly worse. Having a system in place to stop losers in their track is imperative.