Standard Chartered helped the FTSE 100 carve out minor gains on Friday after the Asia-focused bank wrapped up FTSE 100 banking earnings with a very respectable set of results.

The FTSE 100 was trading just 0.1% higher at the time of writing and looked like it would have to rely on the US session for a catalyst.

“Financials were in demand after a strong set of results from Standard Chartered and miners also made some progress, but there was corresponding weakness in precious metals and energy stocks,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“Pharmaceutical firm GSK was also on the back foot amid speculation it could be targeted by activist investors after a long period of lagging behind its rivals.”

NatWest played catch-up with the rest of the banking sector and topped the FTSE 100 with a 4% gain. Despite the numbers not being particularly bad, there was a negative reaction to NatWest’s recent results, so some may have seen the relative weakness in shares as an opportunity. 

Standard Chartered was close behind NatWest after revealing a bumper $1.5bn share buyback that far outstripped analyst estimates. Underlying Q4 operating income came in at $4.8bn, higher than the $4.5bn, and shares jumped 4% on Friday.

“Standard’s latest quarter showed continued momentum, powered by a rock-solid top line and impairments that didn’t bite as hard as expected – a pattern we’ve seen across the UK’s banking giants lately,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Of course, a $342 million software impairment muddied the picture, but it won’t impact capital levels – strip it out, and pre-tax profits crushed forecasts. Standard’s Asian flair, particularly its non-interest income strength, lit up the scoreboard with wealth management shining bright. That sector’s booming in Asia, and Standard’s ready to ride the wave.”

With the FTSE 100 offering little movement, investors can find a slightly more upbeat news flow from China and developments in AI.

Since the emergence of Deepseek, closer attention has been paid to what’s happening in China in terms of AI developments and news that Alibaba plans a big push into the space was a big talking point on Friday after Chinese tech shares surged.

The strength in Chinese equities had marginal read-across into China-centric FTSE 100 stocks Prudential and Rio Tinto that ticked gently higher.

SP Angel has rated Tekcapital shares a ‘buy’, highlighting a potential 60% upside from the current share price.

The broker has released an update note on Tekcapital following a substantial increase in the company’s portfolio value during 2024.

Tekcapital’s portfolio grew by 38% year-on-year to reach $64.2 million on an unaudited basis, driven by robust performance across its portfolio of technology companies.

The research note emphasises a significant transformation in Tekcapital’s portfolio structure, with four of its five portfolio companies now being publicly listed, representing approximately 68% of the portfolio value. Successful IPOs of both Microsalt and GenIP were key drivers of the increase in the portfolio value, with MicroSalt trading roughly double its listing price.

SP Angel notes that this concentrated portfolio approach has enabled Tekcapital to maintain low operating expenses and run its operations efficiently.

SP Angel identifies a potentially significant catalyst in the proposed Nasdaq listing of Guident Corp, Tekcapital’s remaining unlisted investment. Guident, in which Tekcapital holds a 70% stake, operates in the rapidly expanding autonomous vehicle market that is gathering momentum amid a flurry of IPOs and wider adoption of the technology.

The analysts point to recent successful listings in this sector, citing WeRide Inc.’s share price doubling post-IPO as an indicator of strong market appetite.

SP Angel notes Guident’s strong position in the safe teleoperation of autonomous vehicles, highlighting that remote monitoring and control systems have now become mandatory in ten US states. Currently valued at $18 million in Tekcapital’s portfolio, the analysts suggest that a successful IPO could unlock significant additional value for shareholders.

On valuation, SP Angel calculates that Tekcapital’s equity and convertible loan note investments are worth approximately £45 million, translating to an asset value per share of around 24 pence. This indicates that the shares are currently trading at a substantial discount of over 55% to net asset value.

The analysts suggest a target price of 16 pence, representing a 60% upside from current levels, based on bringing the discount more in line with the investment company sector average of 35%.

Despite having a fairly siggy week, the FTSE 100 is less than 5% away from touching the psychologically important level of 9,000. 

After bouncing around on either side of 8,000 for what seemed like years, the index of the UK’s top companies broke higher in the early weeks of 2025 and now has 9,000 within its sights. 

Whether the index can breach this level in the near term depends on several factors, none more important than where sterling goes in the coming weeks. 

The inverse relationship between the pound and the FTSE 100 has been the main driving force behind London’s leading index so far in 2025. A weaker pound’s favourable currency fluctuation supports companies’ earnings that are reported in dollars or euros. These companies make up a significant proportion of the FTSE 100 index and have the power to drive returns on an index level. And that they did.

The FTSE 100 hit a series of all-time highs through January and February 2025 as heavyweight overseas earners enjoyed the pounds sharp decline against the dollar.

In early 2025, poor UK economic data and concerns about the outlook were behind the pound’s weakness against the dollar, which was extenuated by relative strength in the US economy and forecasts of just one or two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Indeed, until markets learned that UK CPI inflation rose to 3% in January, there was also a perceived divergence in the monetary policy paths of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. Interest rate futures markets had been pricing three or four cuts by the Bank of England compared to just one in the United States.

This set the pound on a path to the downside against the dollar and provided welcome support to the FTSE 100. This trend is now in jeopardy.

The BoE now looks unlikely to cut at its next meeting, and investors will have a close eye on any signs of inflation from wages or purchasing prices. Should inflation show signs of increasing, concerns about the BoE’s ability to reduce borrowing costs will intensify. This will be played out in the pound.

There are technical factors to consider around the FTSE 100 which underscores the importance of what the pound does next.

Such an unusually consistent rally for the FTSE 100 in early 2025 has left many companies trading at elevated levels and vulnerable to mediocre earnings. Barclays, Mondi, Marks & Spencer, and NatWest are obvious examples of investors banking profits after results didn’t knock it out of the park.

Failing a bumper surge in earnings on a constant currency basis, whether London’s leading index can test 9,000 before a meaningful correction relies heavily on the gyrations of the pound and how it can support earnings on an actual currency basis.

The FTSE 100 dropped again on Thursday as companies accounting for a significant proportion of the index traded ex-dividend and wiped a sizeable number of points from the index.

BAE Systems, AstraZeneca, and BP, among others, all traded ex-dividend and gave the impression of a bad day for London’s leading index. In reality, the index would only be marginally down without the impact of stocks trading ex-dividend.

“The FTSE 100 started Thursday modestly in the red as some big names on the index traded without the rights to their upcoming dividends,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Although ex-dividends weighed heavily on the index, geopolitical and macro considerations did give a reason for investors to be cautious.

The Federal Reserve signalled it wouldn’t move to cut rates again until they had more evidence inflation was falling. The problem here is the new president’s tariffs campaign threatens a period of higher prices.

“Uncertainty abounds about the knock-on effects of Trump’s tariffs for multinationals listed in London. Although the more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve didn’t blow Wall Street off course, with the S&P 500 breaking out to a record level, there is set to be more wariness creeping in today,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Despite the negative tone to trade, there were a number of positive corporate stories from FTSE 100 firms for investors to dive into on Thursday.

Lloyds shares surged to the highest level since before the pandemic after announcing underlying results – which are to be commended. When the impact of the £700m motor charge was stripped out of the earnings, Lloyds beat expectations across the board. The mortgage business is doing very well, and the company is managing costs.

Investors will be pleased with the level of cash Lloyds is returning to them, and an additional £1.7bn buyback will have gone down very well.

“The more positive response to Lloyds’ full-year numbers compared with its immediate peer group is less a reflection of the results themselves and more related to the fact it had lagged behind its rivals heading into this earnings season,” Russ Mould explained.

“A significant increase in provisions associated with motor finance mis-selling is unlikely to have caught investors on the hop. However, the fact the government’s attempt to intervene on lenders’ behalf was rejected by the Supreme Court is obviously unhelpful and the increased provision meant profit came in below forecasts.

“This issue remains a lingering uncertainty for the business ahead of the latest hearing in early April but the decision to sanction a sizeable share buyback and deliver a healthy increase in the dividend suggests management are not overly concerned.”

Centrica was jostling with Lloyds for the top spot on the FTSE 100 leaderboard – both were up around 7% at the time of writing – following the release of results that exceeded expectations.

There was a broad decline in Centrica’s earnings due to lower energy prices but this had largely been baked into the Centrica share price cake, and the positive earnings surprise sent shares back to levels not seen since the beginning of 2024.