Investors reluctant to take decisions ahead of General Election and Brexit negotiations

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Brexit and the snap General Election have impacted the investment decisions of UK investors more than any other political event in their lifetime, with many waiting until the effects of both events are clear before taking further action. 34 percent of respondents to a survey by loan company Kuflink found that Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has drastically affected the way people manage their investment strategies. Those most worried by the effects of Brexit were investors in London and those between the ages of 18-34, with the figure moving up to 71 percent and 61 percent respectively. An even higher proportion of investors are worried about the effects of the upcoming General Election, with 38 percent of Uk investors choosing to wait until after the results to make further investment decisions. As the country’s economic future remains uncertain, the survey also showed that many investors see property investment as the safest option. 30 percent of the investors surveyed said that during the 2017/2018 financial year they would be investing mainly in traditional asset classes such as property, equating to around 8.78 million people. Tarlochain Garcha, CEO of Kuflink, commented on the survey’s findings: “The EU referendum has set in motion a number of political and economic shifts that are inevitably impacting the way the UK’s investors think and act. Today’s resserach has underlined the faith people place in property as an investment vehicle, with a huge number of investors gravitating towards this safe haven asset amidst the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the approaching General Election. “There is undeniable investment value in retrospective data and historical evidence to support the strength of any investment class. For this reason, I have great faith in the resilience and strength of the UK property market and take confidence in the fact that UK investors agree.”

Trump biggest risk for investors, ahead of Chinese recession

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President Trump poses the greatest risk for regular investors in the world – even ahead of a possible recession in China – but there are also important opportunities, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest financial services organisations. deVere Group founder and CEO, Nigel Green, is speaking out after significant Trump-triggered global market sell-offs last week ahead of his maiden foreign trip as president. Green believes President Trump and his administration is the single biggest threat to investors’ portfolios in the near term for several reasons, including the uncertainty caused by allegations that he attempted to prevent ex-FBI director James Comey investigating ormer national security adviser, Michael Flynn, and the Trump administration’s alleged links to Russia. Green said: “Being the CEO of the world’s largest economy, a U.S. president’s actions and policies will always have an effect on markets and, therefore investors’ returns. But Trump’s unpredictability, the scandals that swirl around him, and the media’s obsession and magnification, make this a unique set of circumstances. “Trump is creating volatility and is likely to continue to do so. But whilst this can pose a real threat to those who are unprepared, complacent, or who overreact, volatility is good for markets and savvy investors alike, because it generates important investment opportunities,” he concluded. President Trump is currently on a visit to the Middle East, where he has urged Arab and Islamic leaders to unite to defeat Islamist extremists. Speaking in Israel on Monday, he said he had come away from his recent state visit to Saudi Arabia with high hopes for peace and stability in the Middle East.

Trading halted on Brazilian markets as President denies corruption allegations

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Trading on the Brazilian stock market was halted on Thursday, after stocks plunged in the wake of corruption allegations against President Michel Temer. Stocks fell over 10 percent in early morning trade, triggering circuit breakers and preventing further trades. The fall was triggered after President Temer was forced to deny a major report that he paid off a witness in a corruption scandal. Newspaper O Globo ran a report that Temer had been caught on tape having a conversation that referred to paying for the silence of the jailed former Speaker of the House, Eduardo Cunha. THis report was then confirmed by Folha de São Paulo. Brazilian markets sunk swiftly on Thursday morning, with iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF, the biggest exchange-traded fund in the external market investing in Brazilian equities, falling 14 percent. The American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of Petrobras also fell nearly 17 percent.

RM Secured Direct Lending to issue further shares to raise funds to invest in UK businesses

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UK investment trust RM Secured Direct Lending confirmed its intention to issue further shares, in order to raise funds to invest in an attractive pipeline of opportunities across a range of sectors. The company, who specialise in secured debt lending to businesses, said they had fully committed the funds raised at its IPO in December 2016 and are now looking for further financing. The New Ordinary Shares will be issued at a price of 101.25 pence per New Ordinary Share, being a premium of 3.84 per cent. to the Company’s NAV per Ordinary Share,. RM Secured Lending also confirmed that remains on track to achieve its stated annualised dividend yield target of 4 percent p.a in its first year, rising to 6.5 percent thereafter for the year to 31 December 2018 In a statement, the group said its Board was “committed to growing the Company over time which will enable it to further diversify its existing portfolio, spread the fixed costs of running the Company across a wider base and increase secondary market liquidity for investors.” “Accordingly the Company will look to issue further shares under the Placing Programme as and when appropriate,” it added. The company also confirmed it is in the “advanced stages” of negotiating a rolling credit facility to provide added flexibility for new investments.

Bull or bear: the investor guide to market cycles

The average investor lacks information on the nature of market cycles and struggles to understand the nature of bull and bear markets, making prudent investing a difficult task. According to new research from Fisher Investments UK, most investors have heard the terms bull and bear market, but many struggle to define them and can’t identify important traits. For example, throughout this eight-year-long US bull market that began March 9, 2009, many investors fear stocks have gone “too far, too fast.” The infographic helps put the current market environment in historical context, shedding light on the evolution of bull markets and their tendency to overcome common fears. By differentiating bull and bear market lifecycles and identifying key points along with way, investors can see the important signs to watch along the way. A core concept is sentiment’s evolution during a bull market. Many investors miss the fact stocks move on the gap between sentiment-based expectations and reality. For example, if the public is deeply pessimistic—as it was in early 2009—then anything less than catastrophically awful data can be the impetus for a nascent bull market. Conversely, if investors’ expectations are euphorically lofty, robust data that misses the mark may be the recipe for stocks to fall. Looking at data or sentiment alone is a common investor error.

Decrease in unemployment rate offset by rising levels of inflation – ONS

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The UK unemployment has fallen to its lowest level in 42 years, with the unemployment rate falling to just 4.6 percent.

According to figures from the Office for National Statistics released on Wednesday, the number of people unemployed fell by 53,000 to 1.54 million in the three months to March.

This significant increase drove the employment rate to a new record high of 74.8 percent. However, the gap between inflation – at 2.7 percent in April – and basic pay growth – 2.1 percent between January and March – has widened, driving real wages down and creating difficulties for the average household consumer as Britain prepares to leave the European Union. Professor Geraint Johnes, Director of Research at the Work Foundation, told the Guardian that Wednesday’s figures constitute a “remarkably strong performance”, but added that the data was “less encouraging” concerning pay. “The pay data indicates a collapse in wage settlements in the construction industry, and this is significant because much of the employment growth in the last part of 2016 came from that sector. “While welcoming the strong employment growth evidenced in the first quarter’s figures, sustaining this into the longer term may therefore prove challenging,” he said.

Labour to impose £48bn worth of tax rises in election manifesto

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Labour have announced plans to impose £48.6 billion of tax rises on the wealthy and businesses, as part of their official 2017 election manifesto. The extra money raised will fund an equivalent surge in public sector spending. In a document entitled ‘For the Many, Not the Few’, Labuor addressed their tax goals: “We believe in the social obligation to contribute to a fair taxation scheme for the common good. We will take on the social scourge of tax avoidance through our Tax Transparency and Enforcement Programme, and close down tax loopholes. “But we will not ask ordinary households to pay more. A Labour government will guarantee no rises in income tax for those earning below £80,000 a year, and no increases in personal National Insurance Contributions or the rate of VAT.” The biggest tax rise in Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s proposals is an increase in corporation tax to 26 per cent, a 7 percent increase on the current rate of 19 per cent. High earners would also take a hit, with a dramatic proposal to lower the threshold for the 45p additional rate from £150,000 to £80,000 and reintroducing the 50p rate on earnings above £123,000. The changes to the higher tax rate will raise another £6 billion a year, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies says Labour’s plans forwould take tax as a proportion of GDP to its highest level for 70 years Carolyn Fairbairn, director general of the Conferation of British Industry, said: “Some of the Labour policies deserve ‘three cheers’ and show what business and government can achieve together in partnership, for example on apprenticeships and innovation. “Others, such as the future of the UK’s digital infrastructure, pose important questions yet need real collaboration with business to make them work. But too many – from renationalisation to new rules that potentially undermine the UK’s flexible labour market – are far wide of the mark.”

Greek economy sinks into recession for first time since 2012

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Greece’s gross domestic product sunk by 0.1 percent in the first quarter of the year, falling back into recession for the first time sine 2012.

According to official figures from Eurostat released on Tuesday, the country’s GDP fell by a further 0.1 percent between January and March of this year, after shrinking by 1.2 percent in the final quarter of 2016.

The figures are set to worsen the Greek financial crisis, as the country struggles to secure a new bailout from international lenders almost two years on from a major crisis in 2015. Greek unions are set to begin two days of industrial action against cuts to pensions and tax rises insisted on by creditors, as the country continues to fight against increasing austerity. The Greek government are hoping a further loan payment will be approved by a meeting of eurozone finance ministers on 22 May.

JP Morgan to invest heavily in Dublin as part of Brexit preparations

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International bank JP Morgan has announced its intention to invest heavily in the Irish capital of Dublin, revealing plans to create a “significant” number to jobs. The jobs will largely be part of custody and fund services business, and comes after an initial announcement that they would be moving some jobs to the Irish capital from London as part of its planning for Brexit. On Monday the news broke that the Wall Street bank is also buying the city’s Capital Dock building, which can accommodate up to 1,000 people. As reported by Irish news agency RTE, the deal was agreed with Kennedy Wilson, in a joint venture with Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited and the National Asset Management Agency. JP Morgan are said to be paying €125 million for the new office building, which is due to be completed by the third quarter of 2018. “Dublin has the vibrant business and technology communities that suit a global firm like ours,” commented Carin Bryans, senior country officer for JP Morgan in Ireland. “Given the momentum of our local businesses, this new building gives us room to grow and some flexibility within the European Union,” Bryans added. JP Morgan have already begun to make plans for when Britain eventually leaves the European Union, and is expected to move hundreds of jobs abroad in order to maintain its presence in Europe. As Britain leaves the EU, it is uncertain as to whether passporting rights – those allowing banks to operate across Europe – will still apply to banks in the UK.

Oil prices jump over 2pc as Russia and Saudi extend cuts

Oil prices jumped over 2 percent on Monday, after Saudi Arabian and Russian oil ministers confirmed their intention to extend supply cuts into 2018. The two countries agreed that current cuts should be prolonged for at least another nine months, taking it to March 2018. This signifies a longer period than originally agreed. Oil prices rose on the news, after sinking last week on fears that the supply cuts would not be extended. The cuts were agreed by OPEC in November of last year and represented the first agreement of its kind in eight years. “There has been a marked reduction to the inventories, but we’re not where we want to be in reaching the five-year average,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told a briefing in Beijing alongside his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak. “We’ve come to the conclusion that the agreement needs to be extended.” WTI Crude is currently trading up 3.03 percent at $49.29 per barrel, with Brent Crude up 2.93 percent at $52.33 (1126GMT).