Australia moves into 25th year without recession, after 1.1 pc growth figure

Miranda Wadham
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Australia moves into 25th year without recession, after 1.1 pc growth figure
Australia’s economy grew at a pace of 1.1 percent in the third quarter, pushing the country into its 25th year without recession. The economy contracted slightly in the third quarter, with the 1.1 percent figure a welcome increase on the surprise negative result in the September quarter. The overall rate of growth for the year now stands at 2.4 percent. Strong exports and higher than expected consumer spending drove the positive figure, alongside a pick up in mining and agriculture in the three months to December. Australia’s treasurer, Scott Morrison, warned that “weak wages growth” was weighing on the economy, but added that the result was a success: “[The result] confirms the successful change that is taking place in our economy as we move from the largest resources investment boom in our history to broader-based growth,” he said. Australia’s resource-rich economy has now reached 25 years without sinking into recession, despite reduced demand from China dampening growth over the last couple of quarters.

Economic growth slows in India, but remains above expectations

Miranda Wadham
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Economic growth slows in India, but remains above expectations
Indian economic growth surpassed expectations for the fourth quarter of 2016, despite the confusion caused by the surprise withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes from circulation. The economy in India grew at 7 percent in the December quarter, slower than the 7.4 percent rate achieved in the previous quarter but well above analysts’ expectations of 6.4 percent. India’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) confirmed its projection that the economy will grow at a rate of 7.1 percent in 2016-17, slowing from 7.6 percent the previous financial year. The figure came as a surprise, after analysts expected a larger fallout from the government’s withdrawal all old 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee banknotes last November. The noted made up 86 percent of the currency in circulation by value, and were withdrawn as part of Prime Minister Modi’s fight against illegal money. Aneesh Srivastava, chief investment officer at IDBI Federal Life Insurance, told the BBC: “I am totally surprised and stunned to see this number… I believe that, with a lag, we will see an impact on GDP numbers.” “Perhaps this data is not capturing the impact of demonetisation,” he added.

FCA regulation has had little effect on the sector, say financial professionals

Miranda Wadham
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FCA regulation has had little effect on the sector, say financial professionals

Financial regulation has done little or nothing to improve stability in the financial services market, one of the largest financial companies warned on Tuesday.

35 percent of financial services professionals polled believe that recent regulation has had little or no impact on financial stability, according to the latest Outlook report from Duff and Phelps.

17 percent believe that regulation has actually made the financial services world less stable. Nearly a decade on from the 2008 financial crisis, just 10 percent of senior executives surveyed say they believe changes to regulation have fully addressed the risk of a future crash.

Julian Korek, Global Head of Compliance and Regulatory Consulting at Duff & Phelps, commented on the findings:

“More needs to be done to build stability in financial services and ensure the system is resilient in future, for both banks and the alternative investment industry.

“The major regulatory bodies have been very clear about future areas of focus and concern, but the fact that so many still think there is potential for another crash is worrying – even without Trump or Brexit potentially taking the market down a quite different regulatory path.”

Looking towards Brexit, over half of those in the industry involved in the survey believed the UK’s break with European legislation will have an impact on their compliance procedures. 35 percent believe that Brexit will have a short term impact on compliance arrangements, whilst a quarter expect the impact to be felt in over 18 months.

However, Korek concluded:

“Regulators have gone some way to help rebuild trust in financial services. Firms therefore have an important role when it comes to maintaining investor confidence in the sector and ensuring transparency is evident in all their operations and governance going forwards.”

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Raymond Jones
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Greggs shares fall on “challenging” outlook, despite 7 percent sales boost

Miranda Wadham
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Greggs shares fall on “challenging” outlook, despite 7 percent sales boost
High street bakery chain Greggs (LON:GRG) reported a 7 percent boost to sales on Tuesday, but warned of inflationary pressures and a “challenging” environment in 2017. Total sales hit £894.2 million in 2016, up from £835.7 million the previous year. Pre-tax profits hit £75.1 million, a 2 million increase on 2015’s figures. Operating profit rose 8.6 percent, with the preliminary full-year results from the company demonstrating a “growing strength in the food to go market”. However, shares fell on Tuesday as investors took note of Greggs warning on performance going forward. Chief executive Roger Whiteside said “industry-wide pressures emerging in commodities as well as labour costs” would likely have a negative effect in 2017, with the UK consumer outlook “challenging”. “However we are confident of making further progress as we implement our plan to grow Greggs as a contemporary food-on-the-go brand,” he added. The strong results show progress in the chain’s plan to shift from being a traditional bakery to focusing on the £6 billion food-to go market, announced in 2013. Shares in Greggs were trading down 3.15 percent at 979.12 by 1003GMT.

LSE-Deutsche Boerse merger on the rocks after European Commission request

Miranda Wadham
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LSE-Deutsche Boerse merger on the rocks after European Commission request

A massive merger between the London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Boerse looks set to collapse, after the LSE said it wouldn’t sell its 60 percent stake in MTS to appease antitrust concerns.

The whole future of the 29 billion euro merger may be at risk, after the LSE said on Sunay that it would not sell its stake in the Italian fixed-income trading platform. Failure to adhere to the European Commission’s request means the deal is obtain EU approval.

The LSE called the request “disproportionate”, adding that: “Taking all relevant factors into account, and acting in the best interests of shareholders, the LSE Board today concluded that it could not commit to the divestment of MTS.” “Based on the commission’s current position, LSE believes that the commission is unlikely to provide clearance for the merger.” The LSE had already agreed to sell part of its clearing business, LCH, to satisfy competition concerns. The commission’s request for further divestment appeared to be one step too far for the company. The ‘merger of equals’ has been a source of concern in the wake of Brexit, with many worried about the City of London being tied to Frankfurt as the UK prepares to leave the European Union.

Coats Group shares fall over 5 percent on “challenging market”

Miranda Wadham
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Coats Group shares fall over 5 percent on “challenging market”
UK thread manufacturer Coats Group (LON:COA) saw an increase in both revenue and profit over the course of 2016, despite “challenging” market conditions. Revenue rose 2 percent on a CER basis to $1,457 million, with reported revenue falling 1 percent. Adjusted earnings per share for 2016 were up 23 percent to 4.91c, with the Group’s board recommending a final dividend of 0.84 us cents per share payable in May 2017. Operating profit grew 16 percent to $158 million, with free cash flow up 10 percent to $78 million. Rajiv Sharma, Group Chief Executive, said market conditions were “challenging” but that Coats delivered a “strong performance”. “We delivered productivity and procurement gains, and tightly managed our overheads which had a positive operational gearing effect in the Industrial Division. We also completed the acquisitions of Gotex and Fast React during the year, both of which have leading positions in their markets and which are already delivering strong growth ahead of management expectations under Coats’ ownership. “We enter 2017 on a solid footing however remain cautious about market conditions. We expect to continue to deliver growth in line with management’s expectations through our initiatives to deliver market share gains, productivity improvements and tight cost control.” After the results financial analyst Peel Hunt raised its price target on Coats Group to £0.70 per share. Peel Hunt currently have 2 buy ratings on the stock. Share in Coat Group fell 5.58 percent on the news, currently trading at 55.00 (1036GMT).

British Airways owner delivers strong results, despite currency hit

Miranda Wadham
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British Airways owner delivers strong results, despite currency hit
British Airways owner IAG (LON:IAG) said performance had been hit by negative currency movements on Friday, but still saw pre-tax profits rise by nearly 33 percent. The company confirmed profits were hit by the weak pound in the wake of Brexit to the tune of 460 million euros, but that pre-tax profits still rose 32.7 percent to 2.4 billion. Shares rose nearly 2 percent after the release of the figures, as investors were cheered by the signs of improving profitability.   Revenue fell 1.3 percent, with revenue per passenger taking a 5.4 percent hit. However, the key operating profit figure rose 7.2 percent to 2.48 billion euros, despite cautious forward-looking statements made after the referendum in June. The airline group also announced that it intended to carry out a share buyback of 500 million euros during the course of 2017.   Chief Executive Officer Willie Walsh called the outcome “a good performance in a challenging environment.” Shares in International Consolidated Airlines are currently trading up 2.08 percent at 514.75 (0935GMT).

Peugeot owner sees profits double, sparking further talks with General Motors

Miranda Wadham
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Peugeot owner sees profits double, sparking further talks with General Motors
Carmaker PSA Group saw profits almost double in the last year, showing strong trading ahead of a possible deal to purchase General Motors’ European business. Net income at PSA Group rose 92 percent over the last year to 1.73 billion euros, with recurring operating income rising to 3.24 billion euros. This includes a loss of 280 million euros from currency swings in the wake of Brexit.The company also announced plans for a 48 euro cents dividend per share. The strong results will increase the intensity of discussions between PSA, who own Peugeot and Citroen, and General Motors. The chairman of PSA Group has spoken of his desire to create “European car champion” through a purchase of General Motors’ European car business, who own Opel and Vauxhall. PSA’s chairman Carlos Tavares said the deal would be “nice to have” but that it “wasn’t a must”, before adding: “We believe there is an opportunity to create a European car champion, resulting from the combination of a French company and German company and without forgetting our U.K. friends. “Opel has making red ink for 10 years, and burning approximately 1 billion in cash every year. We believe we can help.” Detroit-based General Motors have been struggling with a lack of demand for several years, last making a profit in Europe in 1990. However, the potential deal has been met with criticism by several European counties, who are worried about a loss of jobs as a result of the potential merger. Opel employee representatives and union leaders in Germany are pushing for a safeguarding of their jobs, and Britain’s biggest trade union has demanded that the government protect Vauxhall as Britain prepares to leave the EU.

Trading tips: the mind behind the markets

Miranda Wadham
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Trading tips: the mind behind the markets
As Benjamin Franklin once said, “investment into knowledge pays the best interest.” When it comes to taking the very first steps into the journey of becoming a commodities or currency trader, this sentence has never held more importance. As with every human decision, psychology is the driving force, and often determines action. If action is controlled by psychology, what is psychology controlled by? The answer is simple: knowledge. In an ever-growing online trading industry, where access to different asset classes is getting easier by the day, it’s not enough to understand what an instrument is and the factors that drive it. The visual noise of technical and market movements can be blinding and overpowering, so if a novice trader wants to make it to the top, taking the psychology of trading into account is important. The main difference between an unsuccessful and a successful trader is the ability to control one’s psychology and emotions at the most vital decision-making moments, when in a split second a choice must be made about a position in the market. When traders find themselves having to make quick decisions, they need a certain presence of mind, discipline and emotional control, all this can be achieved when there is a firm plan, a strategy one could say, which helps them know when to make which decisions about booking profits and taking losses. As positions move in favor of the trader all seems great, but once that position starts crashing, all novice traders will start frantically asking themselves questions such as: “Should I buy?” “Should I sell?” “Should I take profits and be done with it?” “Should I take the loss and hope my position improves?” A professional trader doesn’t have all the answers, but has a plan, hence there is no space to let excitement, fear, greed or self-doubt make the decisions. A well-thought-through successful trading plan could help every trader develop the discipline to make the markets work in their favor. easyMarkets recognizes this major problem that most newbies suffer from, which is why they are developing a new educational video series called “Discover Trading,” which includes, among other subjects, the new and not very often explored subject of trading psychology. Traders will learn all about the psychology of trading and money management techniques. Successful traders have a full arsenal of knowledge at their disposal, with easyMarkets levelling the playing field and make that knowledge accessible to all. At the end of the day, traders are not born, they are made. 
James Trescothick, Reputation and Education Manager at easyMarkets on 23/02/2017

This post is sponsored by easyMarkets.com
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