Sterling weakens after PM May announces Irish border deal.

The pound sold off after Prime Minister May announced she has reached an agreement over the border and confirmed there would be no hard border. Many feared a hard border would reignite the troubles in Ireland and undo years of progress. From a market perspective, the inability to reach a deal was raising concerns the entire Brexit negotiations would be fraught with hurdles created by stubbornness from both sides. ‘Deal Confirmed! Ireland supports Brexit negotiations moving to Phase 2 now that we have secured assurances for all on the island of Ireland – fully protecting GFA, peace process, all-Island economy and ensuring that there can be no hard border on the Island of Ireland post Brexit’ said the Irish deputy Prime Minister. The pound sold off in the initial reaction in a ‘buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact’ reversal of significant strength in the run-up to the announcement. GBP/USD touched lows at 1.3320 on Thursday before exploding to highs of 1.3510 on Friday morning. At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at 1.3415. Despite the fanfare surrounding today’s announcement, upcoming trade talks will be crucial to the strength of sterling and today’s agreement is a mere drop in the ocean of complex negotiations.    

Ladbrokes Coral & GVC announce intention to merge

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Ladbrokes & GVC today announced GVC had made an approach for Ladbrokes in a move that would create one of the UK’s largest gambling companies. GVC have offered 160.9p per share with a possible additional 42.8p if certain terms are met. In the offer terms, Ladbrokes Coral shareholders would be receive 32.7p in cash and 0.141 ordinary GVC shares for each Ladbrokes Coral share and potentially further value of up to 42.8p structured as a contingent value right (CVR). The additional CVR payment is conditional on the outcome of government review of fixed odds betting machines. Shares in Labrokes Coral soared over 20% on the news in early trade on Thursday. Shares in Ladbrokes Coral have suffered in recent years as the government gears up to limit the maximum bet size on fixed odds betting machines, a significant element of Ladbrokes revenue. The merger would may the new group one of the UK’s largest online Bingo operators with brands such as Gala Casino & Gala Bingo, Bwin, Foxy Bingo and Partypoker.  

Intu shares soar on news of possible Hammerson merger

UK shopping centre owner Hammerson (LON:HMSO) made a £3.4 billion bid for smaller rival Intu (LON:INTU), a move already agreed by over half of Intu’s shareholders. Hammerson, who owns several major UK shopping centres including the Bullring in Birmingham and London’s Brent Cross, made an offer of 253.9p per share for Intu, a 28 per cent premium on the group’s closing price on December 5. Intu owns the Lakeside shopping centre in Essex and Manchester’s Trafford Centre and if the deal goes through, it will create the UK’s biggest property company, worth £21 billion. Intu shares rose over 20 percent in early trading on Wednesday, with Hammerson shares down 3.5 percent. Hammerson’s chief executive, David Atkins, said: “This marks an exciting milestone in the history of Hammerson. Bringing together the high-quality portfolios of both companies establishes Hammerson as a larger, leading European retail Reit, enhances shareholder returns and supports opportunities for long-term growth.” Analysts had mixed reactions towards the deal, with Christopher Fremantle, from Morgan Stanley, saying: “We see Hammerson’s agreed bid for intu as an opportunistic move that combines a strong Hammerson management platform with intu’s large assets but sub-optimal corporate wrapper. Doubts on structural headwinds will remain, but the deal has a number of benefits in our view.” Shares in Intu are currently trading down 14.97 percent at 228.90 (1531GMT).

Shares in insurance provider Saga drop by a quarter

Shares in insurance provider Saga dropped by nearly 25 percent on Wednesday, after “challenging trading” led to the issuance of a profit warning. The company were negatively affected by the collapse of Monarch Airlines, with the change of carriers costing £2 million. Shares fell after the Saga said that it expects underlying pretax profits to remain on track for the current financial year, growing by 1-2 percent, but then experience a 5 percent drop in profits in 2018. Lance Batchelor, the chief executive, said: “Against a backdrop of some challenging trading conditions in our final quarter, we continue to develop the business for the long term.” This comes just two days after Saga has confirmed that it has made “around 100” employees redundant, saying that the saved money would be put towards growing the company. “The changes we have made this week will allow us to invest further in future growth,” Batchelor said. Shares in Saga (LON:SAGA) are currently trading down 23.83 percent at 138.10 (1319GMT).

Car sales on track for first annual drop since 2011

The UK car industry suffered yet another blow in November, as sales of new vehicles fell for the eighth month in a row. Economic uncertainty continued to affect the industry’s performance in the run-up to Christmas, with a sharp fall in demand for diesel cars and a 33 percent drop in business registration. Sales slumped by 11.2 percent during the month to 163,541 vehicles, putting the industry in danger of recording its first drop in annual sales since 2011 Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders, blamed a higher tax on diesel cars as a major reason for the drop: “An eighth month of decline in the new car market is a major concern, with falling business and consumer confidence exacerbated by ongoing anti-diesel messages from government. “Penalising the latest, cleanest diesels is counterproductive and will have detrimental environmental and economic consequences.”

Stagecoach shares jump as investors look to future

Shares in transport operator Stagecoach (LON:SGC) rose over 5 percent on Wednesday morning, after the extension of its East Midlands train franchise and further negotiations with the Department for Transport. Stagecoach released their six months results for the period to the end of October, with earnings per share in line with the group’s expectation at 13.6 percent. Profit also increased over the period to £96.7 million, up from £89.5 million over the same period last year. Investors were boosted by Chief Executive Martin Griffiths’ comments over the future of the company: “We have made positive progress across our businesses. In UK rail, we are working with the Department for Transport towards new contracts at Virgin Trains East Coast and Virgin Trains West Coast. “Our East Midlands Trains franchise has been extended through to March 2019, with the prospect of us agreeing a further direct award franchise from March 2019, and we are part of shortlisted bids for new South Eastern and West Coast Partnership franchises.” Stagecoach is an international public transport group, with operations in the UK, the United States and Canada. Stagecoach is one of the UK’s biggest bus and coach operators with over 8,000 buses and coaches on a network stretching from south-west England to the Highlands and Islands of Scotland, as well as a major UK rail operator, running the East Midlands Trains network. Shares in Stagecoach (LON:SGC) are currently trading up 5.50 percent at 186.10 (1104GMT).

Bitcoin moves into record territory, soars above $12,000

Bitcoin moved into record territory on Wednesday, hitting $12,000 after gaining $500 since the day’s open in Asia. Bitcoin is currently trading at $12,725 (1037GMT), pushing bitcoin’s market capitalization beyond $200 billion for the first time, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index shows. However the price increase has sparked yet more criticism from those against bitcoin, arguing that the Bitcoin bubble is closer to bursting. Stephen Roach, Yale University senior fellow and the former Asia chairman and chief economist at investment bank Morgan Stanley, said on Tuesday: “This is a toxic concept for investors,” Roach said, adding that “it is a dangerous speculative bubble by any shadow or stretch of the imagination.”

FTSE 100 falls, building on November’s drop

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London’s leading index fell on Friday, adding to the losses recorded for November. The FTSE 100 fell as low as 7288 in early trade, the lowest level since September. The drop comes as sterling strengthens through 1.3500 against the dollar. Many analysts have attributed the strength in the FTSE 100 to a weaker pound and there is evidence this correlation is persisting as the pound strengthens. Babcock downgrade The biggest drag on the index was Babcock, down 2.2% after a downgrade by Morgan Stanley. The bank downgrade Babcock to ‘equal-weight’ from ‘over-weight’. The downgrade comes days after Babcock slashed hundreds of jobs in dockyards in Scotland. RBS closes branches Another faller was RBS who announced they were to close one in four branches. The bank, who is still part-owned by the UK government, said the closures were the result of a 40% drop in the number of customers using branches. RBS was down 1.3% at 272.5p by midday on Friday. Just Eat strength The recently announced new constituent of the FTSE 100, Just Eat, rose on Friday having fell for two straight sessions. The takeaway app will join the FTSE 100 shortly along with DS Smith and Halma. They will replace Merlin Entertainments, Conva Tec and Babcock International.

Grainger reaps rewards of investment in residential property

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Shares in the UK’s largest listed residential landlord, Grainger PLC, are flat after releasing full years results. Revenue jumped to £264.7m from £219.9m the year previously as the result of £651m of investment in new properties. Compounding an increase in revenue, Grainger’s cost ratio fell 2% helped by cost discipline and supply chain efficiency. The group continued their progressive dividend strategy with a 8% increase in the total dividend to 4.86p. The company said they were positive on the outlook for UK residential property despite ongoing Brexit negotiations and said they planned to push forward with further investments in the sector. Helen Gordon, Chief Executive of Grainger, commented on the results: “We have transformed Grainger over the last two years, refocused our strategy and made the business more efficient. We have continued to deliver strong financial returns. We have increased our rental income, secured a significant number of new PRS investments, simplified and focused the business and repositioned it for further growth. “Over the financial year, we delivered a 40% increase in adjusted earnings to £74.4m. I am also pleased to report a 5.6% increase in EPRA NNNAV to 303p per share and a total return of 7.3% for shareholders. “The growth opportunity in the UK PRS market is significant and we are well placed with our unique in-house capability to originate, invest and operate. We have seen excellent momentum in acquisitions and we have now secured £651m of PRS opportunities since setting out our strategy. “The future for Grainger is exciting. We are a fast-growing business, with great long-term value, and we are delivering a portfolio of good quality homes for rent which our customers, employees and shareholders can be proud of.”

Greene King sales fall in ‘challenging’ environment

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Greene King posted results for the 24 weeks to 15th November this morning which highlighted a ‘challenging’ period of trading.

Total group sales were down 1.2% for the period. The pub group has recently pointed to poor weather throughout the summer as reason for the slow trading.

Significant cost cutting helped offset the weaker sales and the company said it was on track to achieve £40m-50m of savings for the year.

Cash flow was strong and the company maintained their dividend at 8.8p for the period.

The group also gave an update on strategic progress and said Fayre & Square was to be ‘debranded’ by the end of year as part of their push to reduce their presence in value food and concentrate on more premium offerings.

Rooney Anand, chief executive officer, commented on the results:

“The first half was challenging for our managed pubs, but our actions to strengthen performance have produced an improvement since the period end. We have committed additional investment to enhance the customer experience, including being more competitive on price, having more team members available at key times and strengthening local marketing activity. Pub Partners and Brewing & Brands again outperformed the market, generating cash for the group and raising the profile of Greene King.

“We will continue to benefit from our ability to generate significant cost savings and to improve investment returns to over 25% from rebranded pubs. Greene King is a strong, competitive business with industry-leading brands, a strong and flexible balance sheet, a sustainable dividend and an excellent track record of outperforming in challenging conditions. We are adapting our strategy to ensure we continue to sustain our long-term competitiveness, strong cash generation and attractive returns to shareholders.”