In my 39 years, I have never witnessed a US Presidency with as much drama as I have seen in just over 100 days since Donald Trump was elected. And in this short time talks of a Trump impeachment are already surfacing. I was too young to be fully aware of President Regan’s presidency, then came Bush Sr who I can only remember for the Gulf War and infamous “no more taxes” statement, then Clinton who went through his own impeachment over his affair with Monica Lewinsky, but survived, Bush Jr who I won’t even attempt to get into and of course Obama. Then came Trump. He could easily win the prize for most dramatic presidency Washington has seen, but could an impeachment really be on the cards?

Why could a Trump impeachment happen?

Since day one there has been a non-stop stream of controversial decisions, comical errors of judgement, and connections to Russia that have raised suspicions. High profile firings did not help his case, especially with the latest firing of FBI director James Comey, whose memos showed that Trump was asking him to drop his investigation on former national security adviser Michael Flynn. A new report claimed that Trump’s campaign has made contact with Russia at least 18 times during the election race, which supports the investigation that was opened against Flynn. He was suspected of helping Trump communicate with Russian President Vladimir Putin without the knowledge of the US national security. In his first conference since firing Comey on Friday 19 May, Trump refused to answer any questions about the subject saying “No, no, next question.”

Trump impeachment and the markets

As soon as “Trump Impeachment” appeared in the media, the US dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against six major currencies, dropped to a six-month low. US and global stocks came under pressure and the VIX, which is known as the volatility index that gauges the fear on Wall Street, made its biggest daily move since 24 June 2016. A week before that, the VIX had registered its lowest close since 1993. Considering gold is a safe-haven that traders tend to turn to when the market is unsteady, it could gain following more Trump impeachment speculation and possibly reach the key level of $1270, followed by another potential level of $1300. Add the fact that a June rate hike is not very likely to happen, gold could be in a good place to see potential gains.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact

If Trump is impeached or resigns, there is a possibility of seeing a different course of action. First, we just might see a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact,” which would help gold gain leading up to the possible impeachment, but if the impeachment does happen, then gold prices are likely to retrace their gains. Second, Mike Pence (who would replace Trump) could bring positivity to the situation due to his strong relations with Capitol Hill and his experience in the political arena – both facts could help him pass the necessary tax reforms that the market desires.

A Trump impeachment versus the Clinton impeachment

Clinton’s presidency was far from squeaky clean and endured a number of scandals in the 1990s. Eventually he was impeached by the House of Representatives in 1998 for perjury and obstruction of justice connected to his affair with Monica Lewinsky. Following the impeachment in 1999, the senate acquitted Clinton. The reaction of the market on the build up to the impeachment fell, but on the official announcement of his impeachment it rallied, covering all its previous losses. Gold, meanwhile, had no reaction whatsoever. In hindsight, the market not highly affected by the whole ordeal. Almost 20 years later times have changed, and the market is obsessed with politics. Especially in the past 12 months or so, the Brexit vote, Trump’s unexpected election and the UK snap election are a few of the political events that have caused a riot in the markets. Based on said facts, a Trump impeachment is very likely to repeat the pattern. Furthermore, Clinton’s impeachment was a slow build up, while speculation of Trump being potentially impeached happened a lot faster.

Trump impeachment odds

A Trump impeachment is possible, but an impeachment does not happen overnight. It can take months, even years to come into place, and it does not have strong precedent, with only two impeachments in US history. In my opinion, it is most likely to happen similarly to Richard Nixon’s impeachment. Nixon resigned before the impeachment vote took place; Trump may very well do the same. UK-based bookmaker Paddy Power’s odds on Trump impeachment in 2017 are at 21-10, while odds against Trump’s survival of a full first term are at 4-6 against him.

By contributor James Trescothick, Global Strategist, easyMarkets

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In uncertain times, the fine art market offers a reassuring investment opportunity. Largely immune to political change, it is less volatile than currencies or capital markets. The global market was worth more than $45billion last year, a 1.7 percent annual increase, according to the European Fine Art Foundation Report 2017. Prices have fallen back a little from the peak of July 2015, but are around 15 percent higher than in the market trough of November 2012 and the market is ‘stable and robust’. The outlook is optimistic. Wealth managers are looking beyond traditional investment products and there is a strong demand from investors – 88 percent of private offices and 75 percent of High Net Worth and Ultra High Net Worth individuals want art in their portfolios, according to the 2016 Deloitte Art and Finance report. However, the market can be daunting to newcomers. It has a reputation for being opaque, and the major auction houses charge fees of up to 30 percent. Global auction house sales fell last year by 18.8 percent whilst sales by dealers increased by 20 percent to $27.9 billion; looking more closely at the figures, it turns out the big auction houses conducted more of their business privately, which does nothing for transparency in the market. Most investors are not in the art market purely for sentimental reasons – the emotional benefit of collecting is a pull, but Deloitte Touche found that strong returns were more important to 64% of investors. They see art as a tax-efficient asset with the upside of capital appreciation and want as diverse a portfolio as possible. Art funds can offer that, combining ‘defensive’ pieces by established artists with some rising stars and a few emerging faces. A balanced portfolio might look like this: 50 percent spread across Old Masters, such as Botticelli and Raphael, combined with an Impressionist, perhaps a Monet, and a 20^th century name like Modigliani; 25 percent allocated to post-war or Modern greats, such as Liechtenstein, Bacon, Dalí; and the remaining 25 percent in high risk categories, such as emerging Latin or Indian art and British contemporary. That is a good way of managing risk, but art funds are not liquid, and tend to have a long lock-in period. With minimum unit sizes normally upwards of $250k it can also be difficult for new art investors to join. And short-term investors should be aware that even the ‘blue chip’ names can have a bad patch – last year, there was a 68 percent drop in the auction sales volume of Andy Warhol paintings, a 50 percent fall in Picassos and falls of more than 60 percent in Modigliani and Francis Bacon. Meanwhile, betting too heavily on an emerging artist is as risky as backing a promising start-up. Several graffiti artists have attempted to move on to gallery work – Banksy managed to do it and one of his drawings from ten or 15 years ago, which was then worth a paltry £2,500, can now reach 100 times that amount, but thousands more like him have disappeared without trace. ‘The building blocks of the art market depend fundamentally on quality and trust,’ concludes the European Fine Art Foundation report. ‘Key to this are maintaining reputation and credibility to ensure longevity, stability and resilience’. But for investors, two of the fundamental problems in the market are a lack of transparency and a lack of liquidity. Now, a new art investment platform is promising a unique solution by creating an online marketplace where owners, collectors and investors can meet without intermediaries to trade in real time. It is taking the idea of art funds, where art pieces are evaluated in financial terms, to a new level by giving investors the opportunity to have fractional ownership in artworks. Maecenas will use blockchain technology to tokenise and digitally allocate single pieces, or portfolios, to several co-investors who can trade with other parties though an art exchange. While the owner retains 51 percent of the piece’s value, the remaining 49 percent can be traded, transforming the dynamics of the market and bringing much greater granularity to art investing. Prices will be market driven and faster digital transactions will create more data points than ever before, allowing investors to monitor the evolution of pieces in a way that has never been possible.

This will democratise the fine art market, creating a secure, open global platform. Blockchain technology has been used to bring greater transparency to the provenance of artworks; last spring, at the ICT summit in Luxembourg, Deloitte Touche unveiled its ArtTracktive proof of concept, which provides a distributed ledger for tracking the provenance and whereabouts of fine art works. But this is the first time blockchain is being used to make art investment an easier, more transparent proposition. Lowering the barriers to entry will widen access to the market. At the Affordable Art Fair in London, works by more than 1000 artists are on display, ranging in price from £100-£6000. Getting investors involved at the bottom end of the market is important, but creating the first real-time trading market for fine art is a more ambitious vision, opening up all sectors of the market and allowing anyone to own a share of a masterpiece. That could be a catalyst for change in a market that has remained largely unaltered for 300 years. Just about every sector you care to mention has been disrupted by technology – now it’s time for art investors to reap the benefits. By contributor Miguel Neumann, Founding Partner at Maecenas and Chief Operating Officer at DX Markets