Bank of England unanimous on rate stick at 0.5 percent

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The Bank of England have voted to keep interest rates at their current record low of 0.5 percent. All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to freeze rates, going for the safe option as the upcoming EU referendum threatens market volatility. In a statement, the committee reasoned: “There appears to be increased uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming referendum. That uncertainty is likely to have been a significant driver of the decline in sterling. “It may also delay some spending decisions and depress growth of aggregate demand in the near term.” Governor Mark Carney neglected to give an official Bank of England position on the UK referendum.
17/03/2016

Should I open a Lifetime ISA?

A major announcement in Chancellor George Osborne’s 2016 budget yesterday was the introduction of a Lifetime ISA, designed to help young people save for the future. What is the Lifetime ISA? ISAs already exist in several forms, and is essentially a tax free savings allowance. However, as part of Osborne’s plan to “put the next generation first”, those under 40 in April 2017 will be able to open a Lifetime ISA, save up to £4000 a year and receive a 25 percent top up from the government. So for every £4 you save, the government will add an extra £1. Sounds good. Should I open one? Whilst it sounds like a win-win situation, there are several conditions attached. Many of these are restrictions on how the money can be spent, which are limited to buying a first home (up to £450,000), accessed from the age of 60 as a pension, or other ‘life events’, such as a terminal illness. Essentially, unless you want to save your money for a house or your pension, the Lifetime ISA isn’t for you; if you access the funds for anything else, you will not qualify for the bonus and have to pay a 5 percent fee on top. Should I use the Lifetime ISA to save for a pension? The announcement of the Lifetime ISA has raised eyebrows due to its similarity to a pension scheme, raising the question – when saving for retirement, is it better to save through a traditional employer pension scheme, or with the Lifetime ISA? Tax is paid on both a some point – money going into a Lifetime ISA is tax-paid but free to take out, and with the employer pension scheme its not-taxed going in, but tax is paid when it is taken out. It is slightly more flexible than a pension fund, but operates in a similar way. However, The Treasury is keen to stress that this account is not a pension and can run alongside other long-term savings – you can still pay into a pension and get tax relief on your contributions and benefit from the lifetime ISA bonus at the same time. What other changes were made to ISAs in the budget? From April 2017 the tax-free savings limit will rise to £20,000 a year, up from the £15,240 currently. The Help to Buy Isa scheme, which is currently in place to help first-time buyers, is due to end in November 2019. However, the new ISA scheme offers slightly more for your money.
Miranda Wadham on 17/03/2016
 

Morning Round-Up: Oil and Asia up, Glaxo CEO Witty to step down

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Oil up again on positive sentiment Oil rose again on Thursday, continuing gains made on Wednesday after plans were solidified between major exporters to agree an output freeze. The world’s biggest producers – currently excluding Iran – are in support of holding a meeting to keep production at current levels – perhaps creating the first global supply deal in 15 years. Sinking oil prices and a lack of demand has caused producers to take action. Sentiment has risen on the back of this possibility, with US crude CLc1 up 77 cents at $39.23 a barrel before 0800GMT, following on from Wednesday’s gains. GlaxoSmithKline CEO Witty to step down

GlaxoSmithKline veteran CEO Andrew Witty has announced his intention to step down in 2017, after 10 years at the helm of the company.

Starting as a management trainee and remaining with the company for 32 years, felt now was the time to leave: “By next year, I will have been CEO for nearly 10 years and I believe this will be the right time for a new leader to take over”, Witty said. His departure will no doubt leave a period of uncertainty for the group, with has been hit by flagging sales and calls for the breaking up of the company into smaller units. A minority of shareholders have backed this plan, including UK fund manager Neil Woodford, but Witty has always argued that it is not something to consider in the short term. Last month, GSK saw sales rise 2 percent to £6.29 billion for the three months to December, but disclosed a pre-tax loss of £416 million. Shares in the group rose at open this morning, but have since fallen to -0.28 percent at 1408.00 (0927GMT). Asian shares up Asian shares had a strong day on Thursday, with most indexes closing positive after an increase in investor sentiment and the falling of the dollar. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS climbed to a two-month high and was last up 1.9 percent. The Hang Seng was up 1.21 percent, the Shanghai Composite up 1.20 percent and South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.9 percent.  
17/03/2016
 

LIVE: Budget 2016

Today’s budget market George Osborne’s eighth budget in his role. Join us at 12.30pm for live updates. 13.35 Osborne: “Aim to let working people keep more of the money they earn.” Tax free personal allowance to £11,500 Increase high rate tax threshold to £45,000 13.30 Tampon tax money to go towards women’s charities. Fuel duty frozen for sixth year in a row, saving £75 a year to the average driver. Tobacco tax continues to rise. Beer duty frozen in support of local pubs. Enterprise: Cutting capital gains tax to 20 percent, and cutting basic rate from 18 percent to 10 percent. Increase ISA limit from £15,000 to £20,000 New scheme called ‘Lifetime ISA’ saving up to £4000 each year – for every £1 saved, the government will put in £1. 13.20 Education: Extra funding provided so that every primary and secondary school in England will be an academy. Focus on the North where performance is weaker. Teaching maths to 18 for all pupils Introduction of fair national funding formula. Dealing with obesity Introducing a sugar levy on the soft drinks industry. Levied on the companies and introduced in two years time. Assessed on the volume of imports and will have time to change recipes. Money from levy will be used to double funding for primary school support. Libor funds will also be used towards children’s hospital services to improve health. 13.15 £150 million package support to reduce homelessness. HS3 between Manchester and Leeds given the go-ahead. Cross Rail 2 commissioned by the same company as Cross Rail 1. Further investment in flood defences by increasing standard rate of insurance premium tax, committing all money raised to flood defences. 13.10 Commitments to National Infrastructure Inviting bids to help develop modular reactors. Abolishing petroleum tax offering support to oil and gas industry. 13.00 Fundamental reform of business tax system: Low tax regime attracting businesses, but ensuring that they pay taxes in the UK. Will restrict interest reductability or the largest companies at 30 percent of UK earnings. Allow firms to use losses more flexibly, helping 70,000 British companies, and restrict amount of losses that can be offset by 50 percent. “Will help create a modern tax code raising extra money for the Exchequer.” Reduce the rate of corporate tax from 20 percent to 17 percent in April 2020. Introducing 2 new tax-free allowances up to £10,000 a year for those making money online, renting out homes etc. Small business rate relief threshold raised to £15,000 as well as the higher threshold. 600,000 small businesses will see business rates cut or abolished entirely, supporting smaller businesses. Commercial stamp duty reduced. 2 percent rate for high value leases above £5 million. Comes into force from midnight tonight. Raising £500 million per year. Tax evasion: further action will be taken to prevent tax evasion, on top of those measures already taken. Public sector will have a duty to ensure that employees pay their tax. Tax evasion measures will raise £12 billion. 12.55 Debt will fall to 86 percent and end up at 77.2 percent in 2020. Deficit will fall to 2.9 percent, in 2017-18 1.9 percent, 2018-19 1 percent. Borrowing this year lower than forecast in Autumn Statement – has fallen to 55.5billion in 2016. 12.50 Welfare: Support for disabilities better targeted. Will still rise by more than £1 billion. Public sector pensions: Reform saved over £400 billion in the long term. have revalued Pensions and Public Sector employers contributions will rise. 12.40 Economic forecast: Osborne begins by accepting all the recommendations of Sir Charlie Bean’s report. The OBR economic forecast for world economy has been revised down, with outlook weaker. The most significant change is the decision to revise down potential UK productivity growth – OBR acknowledge that this revision is a “highly uncertain call.” IMF warns that economy faces growing risks of derailment – but says Britain is the best prepared. Osborne attributes this to his long term economic plan. However, forecast on UK remaining in the EU – vote to leave could result in period of uncertainty and volatility. GDP will grow by 2 percent this year and 2.2 percent next. Osborne reiterates he believes the UK is better off within a reformed EU. Forecast for labour market Businesses created 150,000 more jobs than expected. Forecasting a million more jobs in this parliament. 12.35 George Osborne called to speak. Reporting on “labour market delivering highest employment in history and deficit falling each year, on course for budget surplus.” British economy “resilient” and has withheld headwinds. Warns “markets are turbulent” and “outlook for global economy is weak”, bur Britain “well prepared to handle it.” Reiterates that budget will be focused on the long term, with “sound public finances delivering security”. Mentions importance of investment in homes, school and social mobility, as well as helping working people save.

UK wage growth rose in January, alongside optimism for year ahead

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British wage growth rose in the three months to January, possibly signalling an end to the unusually slow wage growth plaguing Britain throughout 2015. According to official data released on Wednesday, the total earnings of workers, including bonuses, rose 2.1 percent on the year in the three months to January, up from 1.9 percent. January alone saw the biggest wage growth jump since August at 2.5 percent. Unemployment figures remained steady at 5.1 percent, a ten-year low, for the third month in a row; however, analysts have been puzzled by wage growth remaining so low, despite this decrease in unemployment. With the upcoming EU referendum causing uncertainty and volatility for the UK, it looks unlikely to rise in the near future. Low inflation benefits UK households New figures released by Markit today suggest that the UK’s low inflation has been beneficial to British households since 2015, despite the slow-down in wage growth and a drop in take-home pay. Markit’s Household Finance Index for March was weakened by the first drop in income from employment since December 2014, but overall showed optimism for the year ahead. Markit economist Philip Leake said: “With fresh public spending cuts expected in today’s budget announcement, headwinds to household confidence are likely to persist in coming months.”
16/03/2016

Morning Round-Up: Budget 2016, LSE-Deutsche Boerse merger, oil up

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Osborne prepares to deliver budget

George Osborne is readying himself to present his latest budget to MPs later today, which is expected to include an extra £4 billion in spending cuts and announce further investment into UK infrastructure.

It will also include a £1.5 billion plan to convert England’s state schools into academies, as well as allowing them to choose their own opening hours. He is also expected to warn that the “storm clouds are gathering again”.

Join us at 1230GMT as we live tweet George Osborne’s budget announcement. LSE-Duetsche Boerse merger agreed Deutsche Boerse and the London Stock Exchange have agreed a merger that could see cost savings of 450 million euros, and create one of the largest exchange groups in the world. The merged firm will be domiciled in Britain and have headquarters in both Germany and the UK. LSE shareholders will own 45.6 percent of the new holding company, while Deutsche Boerse shareholders will own 54.4 percent. In a statement on Wednesday, Deutsche Boerse said: “The combination will offer significant value creation potential.” Oil up on output meeting Oil prices rose again on Wednesday after falling over 2 percent in the last session, on hopes that an agreement may be reached at the upcoming meeting in Qatar. According to Reuters, a meeting of producers will take place on April 17th, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia and with the aim of cutting output. This is expected to go ahead without the participation of Iran.  
16/03/2016
 

RBS to cut 448 UK jobs

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As part of an effort to cut costs following its eighth successive annual loss in February, the Royal Bank of Scotland has announced its plans to eliminate an estimated 448 jobs, whilst at the same time creating 300 similar roles in India. The proposed plans involve replacing investment advisers with “robo-advisers”. The bank said in a statement: “The demand for face-to-face investment advice is changing. Our customers increasingly want to bank with us using digital technology. As a result, we are scaling back our face-to-face advisers and significantly investing in an online investing platform that enables us to help a new group of customers with as little as £500 to invest.” After a seven month study, the Financial Conduct Authority concluded that this new technology could “play a major role in driving down costs”. RBS have stated that they hope to make further savings of £800 million over the course of the next year.  
15/03/2016

EU referendum: new polls puts UK on course for Brexit

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According to today’s ORB poll for the Telegraph, 49% of respondents would vote to leave the EU whilst 47% would prefer to remain part of the 28-member bloc. Whilst there is only a difference of 2%, it has highlighted the uncertainty of the up-coming referendum and has created concerns among David Cameron and others supporting the ‘stay’ campaign. Analysis of the survey by Sir Lynton Crosby shows that the results show greater support for the Brexit campaign due to greater motivation and enthusiasm. Crosby identified the potential problem with those in favour of staying within the EU: “The real risk for the Remain campaign is complacency. What is clear is that this campaign has a long way to run, and despite what voters currently believe, the outcome really is in the balance,” This was highlighted by the ORB poll, which showed that 76% of the ‘stay’ voters expected Britain to stay within the bloc, however a quarter of these were unlikely to vote. “It is obvious they have a preference for the UK to remain in the EU, but the outcome of the referendum is not currently important enough to them to motivate them to show up. This demonstrates the consequence of the outcome lacking personal relevance to them” said Crosby, who helped Cameron win an outright victory in last May’s national election. The survey also showed that the majority of respondents’ did not believe that their vote would make a difference, and expected that the UK would remain in the EU regardless.  
15/03/2016

Sainsbury’s announces growth in quarterly sales

Three days before its deadline to raise its offer for Argos-owner Home Retail, Sainsbury’s has announced it’s first increase in quarterly sales in more than two years. Sainsbury’s witnessed a 0.1% rise in sales in the nine weeks leading up to 12th March. This included an 11% rise in entertainment goods, helped by the sale of Adele’s latest album. This was a step-up from the 0.4% fall in sales over the Christmas period. The second largest supermarket’s growth is following its decision to cut-back on multi-buy promotions and lowered prices on everyday items in attempts to keep in competition with discount supermarkets such as Aldi and Lidl. Sainsbury’s chief executive, Mike Coupe, said: “We have traded well this year and are making excellent progress implementing our strategy. The market will remain competitive but we are confident that we will continue to outperform our major peers.” Sainsbury’s shares opened today at 279.90.
15/03/2016

Italy’s Campari to acquire Grand Marnier in €684m deal

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The world’s sixth largest spirits company, Campari (CPRI.MI) best known for its Spritz cocktail containing the orange aperitif Aperol, said today that it will buy Grand Marnier (GDMR.PA) for €684 dollars. Grand Marnier investors will receive €8.05 per share in cash a 60 percent premium to the stock value. Bob Kunze-Concewitz, Campari’s chief executive, has said that the deal was “a perfect fit with our external growth strategy. Grand Marnier strengthens our quest to further capitalise on the revival of classic cocktails, particularly in the US.” Shares in Campari rose 1 percent on Tuesday morning whilst shares in Grand Marnier were suspended from trading. Despite a spate of mergers and acquisitions in recent years, the global spirits industry remains to be relatively fragmented to beer.