LIVE: ECB monetary policy decisions

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13:00 The ECB has released its latest monetary policy decisions from its meeting of the Governing Council today. The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0 percent, causing the euro to plummet 1.5 percent and German 2 year bonds to shoot upwards. Andrew Sentance, a former Bank of England policymaker, tweeted: “Monetary policy being pushed to the limits… and beyond!” 13:10 The bank also announced the decision to expand the scope of assets that it will buy through its quantative easing programme, which will now include investment-grade corporate bonds. The decision to buy government debt suggests that the ECB have upped their game after a disappointing meeting in December. 13:13 The ECB intend to raise inflation to 2 percent, which currently could take up to 15 years. Draghi has announced the decision to cut deposit facility to -0.400 percent. 13:20 FTSE up 0.54%, CAC40 up 2.63%, IBEX up 3.29% 13:30 ECB press conference with Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, and Vítor Constâncio, Vice President – live from Frankfurt am Main, Germany ECB conducted a “thorough review” extending into the year 2018 and aim to stimulate return of inflation to levels of or at 2 percent. Draghi: “To ensure the continued smooth implementation of asset purchases, increased issue share limits for purchase of securities issued by organisations from 33 percent to 50 percent.” 13:40 Governing council expects key interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. Draghi: ECB will launch four new refinancing operations – offering cheap four-year loans to banks. Loans could be as cheap as the ECB’s deposit rate, which has been cut to minus 0.4% today. “Growth dampened by volatile financial markets and the sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms.” 13:45 “Outlook for real GDP has been revised slightly down reflecting weaker growth prospects for the global economy.” Heightened uncertainties in the global economy and broader geo-political risks” will impact on inflation and the EU economy, continues Draghi. Projections for European Area see inflation 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018 – below its target of 2 percent. Outlook for inflation has been revised down, reflecting the fall in oil prices over recent months. Looking forward, Draghi said: “Long dynamics see path of gradual recovery observed since 2014.” Annual growth rate of loans to households remains stable at 1.4 percent in January 2016. 13:50 Public infrastructure is vital to increase investment and job creation. Draghi recommends swift implementation of structural reforms, and says schemes should be stepped up. “All countries should strive for a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies.” – End of Mario Draghi’s statement on today’s monetary policy decisions –

John Lewis reduces staff bonus after 11 percent profit fall

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151-year old department store chain John Lewis reported a full-year profit fall of nearly 11 percent, and reduced their staff bonus to 10 percent of their salary. John Lewis Partnership pay their employees – known as partners – an annual bonus as a percentage of their salary. This year it has fallen to 10 percent, down from 17 percent three years ago. However, the group also announced a 24 percent rise in annual profits before tax to £435 million, ending 30 January. Sir Charlie Mayfield, chairman of John Lewis Partnership, said: “The partnership has delivered a healthy trading performance and increased market shares in challenging conditions.” Its supermarket division Waitrose saw a 2 percent fall in operating profit to £232.6 million, with a 0.4 percent rise in sales on a like-for-like basis. Like-for-like sales at John Lewis department stores rose by 3.6 percent.
10/03/2016
 

Buy Rating: Defensive Stock to Provide Safe Haven in Brexit Uncertainity

Buy Note: FTSE 100 Safe Haven Defensive Stock

For those seeking safety in the run up to this year’s ‘Brexit’ referendum and want stay clear of overvalued bonds and volatile gold, this may be the answer.

This stock can boast during the financial crisis it only fell 39% from peak to trough whilst some of its peers plummeted more than 70% and is likely to be steady throughout any Brexit concerns this year whilst paying a respectable dividend.

Key Considerations:

  • Guidance for margin improvements in 2015

  • Consistent dividend increases

  • EPS increases of 8%

  • $4.6 revenue

Download this report now for free for a limited time.

A copy will be emailed to you immediately.

Copyright Fat Prophets® is a registered trade mark/trading name of Mint Financial (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Number 220591, registered in England and Wales, Number 04255908, with a registered office at 100 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 5JD. (www.fatprophets.co.uk)
DISCLAIMER The views and opinions expressed herein are for information purposes only. They are subject to change without notice, and do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of any particular person. They should not be viewed as recommendations, independent research, or advice of any kind. The views accurately reflect the personal views of the author. They are not personal recommendations and should not be regarded as solicitations or offers to buy or sell any of the securities or instruments mentioned. The views are based on public information that we considers reliable but does not represent that the information contained herein is accurate or complete. With investment comes risk. The price and value of investments mentioned and income arising from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not an indicator of future results, and future returns are not guaranteed. We acknowledge an individual’s tax situation is unique and tax legislation may be subject to change in the future

Morning Round-Up: Volkswagen CEO leaves, poor Morrisons results, oil down

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Volkswagen CEO to step down The US CEO and President of Volkswagen is stepping down, just months after the company was hit by an emissions scandal that rocked the car industry. Michael Horn’s departure was announced in a statement by Volkswagen this morning, and is effective immediately. It is said to be “through mutual agreement”, and he will be replaced on an interim basis by Hinrich J. Woebcken, the recently announced new Head of the North American Region and Chairman of Volkswagen Group of America. Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen brand, commented: “I want personally to say ‘thank you’ to Michael Horn for the great work he has done for the brand and with the dealers in the United States,” said Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen brand. “During his time in the U.S., Michael Horn built up a strong relationship with our national dealer body and showed exemplary leadership during difficult times for the brand,” he added. The long-standing German carmakers was hit late last year by the revelation that its ‘environmentally friendly’ Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche diesels were equipped with devices that lowered emissions results during tests. Almost 600,000 VW cars in the US were affected. Morrisons hit by further decline Troubled supermarket chain Morrisons have been hit by yet another disappointing set of financial results, marking their fourth straight year of decline. The company reported a 27 percent fall in annual profit on Thursday, despite signing a strategic deal with Amazon – a nine year low. It made an underlying pretax profit before one off items of 302 million pounds in the year to January 31st. Shares (LON:MRW) are trading down 1.04 percent at 199.90 (1007GMT). Oil prices dip again Oil prices fell on Thursday after hitting highs earlier this week, disappointing investors and causing further uncertainty. Expectations of more stimulus from the European Central Bank’s meeting this week, which would strengthen the dollar against the euro, also affected markets. After a 5 percent rise on Wednesday, Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $40.57 per barrel (0805GMT), with US crude CLc1 down 32 cents at $37.97 per barrel. Analysts warned that the gains earlier this week were unusual, and that with supply still outstripping demand, the glut is expected to continue well into 2017.  
 10/03/2016
 

Kiddee v Trunki: decision expected in children’s luggage battle

A decision is expected by the Supreme Court today in the long-running battle between two rival children’s luggage makers, Magmatic and PMS International. Magmatic, the UK-based creator of popular children’s suitcase the Trunki, has claimed that PMS International copied their design in creating the Kiddee Case. Both of which have been made for children to ride on, and are in the shape of animals. Initially the High Court ruled that PMS had copied the design, but the decision was overturned by the Court of Appeal who said that the cases were sufficiently different in their design. The case went to the Supreme Court in November, from which a decision is expected later today – however, it may be referred to the European Court of Justice. Ewan Grist, a specialist intellectual property lawyer at law firm Bird & Bird, said the case was “likely to have profound implications in the design world, whichever way the supreme court rules”. The founder of Magmatic, Robert Law, has described the court of appeal’s ruling as disastrous for hundreds of thousands of small creative British businesses, tweeting after the Supreme Court case: “350,000 British designers in UK contributing £16bn to economy yet copyists can get away with stealing designs.”
09/03/2016

Hotel Chocolat set to list on AIM market

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Premium chocolatier Hotel Chocolat has announced plans to go public, listing on the AIM market later this year. The company made £81.1 million worth of sales in the year to the 28 June, and is hoping to secure a valuation of £150 million through its IPO. The funds will be used to accelerate growth, with co-owner Angus Thirlwell calling it the “next logical step.” “This will enable us to accelerate the many initiatives that we have in place, in particular additional investment in our British chocolate manufacturing, in new stores and in our digital offering,” he continued.
Hotel Chocolate, founded in 1993, currently operate 84 stores in the UK and abroad and posted revenues of £81.1 million for its last financial year, ending 28 June 2015.
09/03/2016

Morning Round-Up: E.On losses, Asian markets down, warnings for global economy

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E.On post second straight loss UK ‘big six’ energy provider E.On posted a loss for the second year in a row on Wednesday, as wholesale electricity prices hit a record low. E.On saw annual net losses more than double in 2015 to 7 billion euros, above analysts expectations of a loss of 6.48 billion euros. The company also wrote down the value of its loss making power plants by 8.8 billion. The company cited record low wholesale prices, as well as the German government’s move towards renewable energy taking a hit to profits. It is the second year that E.On has reported a loss. Losses for Asian markets Asian markets saw sharp losses on Wednesday, falling further from its two-month highs due to weak-trade figures from China and further oil price fluctuation. The Shanghai Composite index and the CSI 300 fell around 2.4 percent before closing down 1.34 percent and 1.15 percent respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.4 percent, with the Nikkei closing down 0.84 percent. Warnings issued for UK economy and beyond Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has spoken out against the Brexit campaign in his strongest statement yet, saying that leaving the EU could damage the UK’s financial centre. Carney reiterated that he was not making any recommendation on how to vote, but made it clear that he believes the UK’s $2.9 trillion economy could be battered by a vote to leave, with global banks choosing to move away from London. His statement came on the same day as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the global economy faces a growing “risk of economic derailment” and must intervene to promote demand. David Lipton, second in command at the IMF, said in a speech at the National Association for Business Economics in Washington on Tuesday: “The IMF’s latest reading of the global economy shows once again a weakening baseline,” he said. “We are clearly at a delicate juncture.”
09/03/2016
 

Bank of England warns against leaving the EU

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Following pressure from the government to “set out the facts, set out the figures so people can make a judgement” Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, warned on Tuesday of the possible consequences if the UK is to leave the European Union following the referendum due on the 23rd of June this year. Although Carney maintained that he was not making any recommendation on how to vote, his comments are not likely to be supported by the euro-sceptics. Carey did not comment on the long-term impacts of the results of the referendum for the economy but he did state that the short-term impacts would result in a hit to the country’s growth and would lead to a vast reduction in foreign investment. Carney told lawmakers in British parliament: “One would expect some activity to move. I’d say a number of institutions are contingency planning for that possibility.” Such comments were not taken lightly from those in support of the Brexit campaign, with Conservative Party member Jacob Rees-Mogg saying it was “beneath the dignity” of the Bank of England to make “speculative” comments about Britain’s membership to the EU, and believed Carney was damaging the banks reputation. He has since felt support after attack from euro-sceptics following his seemingly pro-EU comments. “Mark Carney waded into the Brexit debate and emerged unscathed, defending the integrity of the Bank of England from accusations of bias from lawmakers, while highlighting the risks of the Brexit.” said Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe.  
08/03/2016

China’s exports tumble 25% in February

Only days after Chinese leaders aimed to reassure investors that the outlook for China’s economy remained positive, the customs administration revealed that exports in February fell by 25.4%, its fastest drop in almost seven years. In a research note, Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. economist Jianguang Shen said: “China’s exports declined more than expected in February, confirming our view that external trade will likely be a drag on economic growth in 2016 amid lackluster global demand. Government stimulus to boost domestic activity will be critical for stabilizing economic growth in 2016.” As well as exports, imports also declined by 13.8% last month. Experts aren’t necessarily concerned with this drop in exports due to the timings of this years Lunar new year holidays, which fell early in February and are associated with sharply reduced business activity. China Economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, Julian Evans-Prichard has said “Exports were very strong last year in February because the Lunar New Year started so late and much of the usual disruption from the holiday was pushed into March. So the implication is that we’ll probably see a significant reversal and a stronger number next month. We suspect that overall exports remain weak but we don’t see much evidence of marked deterioration, for instance there was no sudden drop-off in export orders in the Markit PMI (activity survey), and they generally do a pretty good job of adjusting for seasonality.”  
08/03/2016
 

Stock analysts: are they worth listening to?

Analysts have been evaluating and predicting future trends for a long time and now they are getting more and more exposure with 24/7 stock market news, with their word often being taken as truth. However with a study showing that 49% of analyst ratings on the Dow 30 were incorrect in 2012, is their word really worth following? Looking at the oil prices compared to the analysts expectations over the past couple of years, there is clear evidence that the reality has far from reflected the analysts expectations. For example if we consider the start of 2009, we can see that whilst analysts forecasted the oil prices to be around $65 per barrel, in reality prices stood $25 higher than this at $95 per barrel. This is not a one off case, and has been seen to happen again and again with worse consequences. Take the start of 2014. Analysts predicted a declining price in oil, just for the opposite to happen. Oil prices in 2014 increased throughout the first half of the year until reaching its highest level in May. Of course, analysts do get a fair share of predictions right but how do we know if we should rely on their advice? Predicting the future of any investment product is difficult. Whilst Jim Cramer from CNBC media fairly stated that “Wall Street analysts don’t exactly have a sterling track record”, some are known to have made some brilliant forecasts. The bottom line is that it is important to remember that whilst stock analysts might have a greater insight into the future of the stock market than you, it is important to take their report as apart of a bigger picture and to not take their predictions as the sole basis for your investment decision.  
08/03/2016