FTSE 100 gains after Fed keeps rates on hold

On Thursday, the FTSE 100 attacked the 8,600 level as positive reactions to corporate earnings in both the UK and US lifted the mood.

Airtel Africa and St James’s Place were the FTSE 100’s standout performers, with gains of 9% and 8%, respectively.

US stocks had a minor wobble overnight after the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in a ‘hawkish hold’, which signalled to the market that they shouldn’t expect too much from the Fed this year in terms of rate cuts.

“The Fed, as expected, kept interest rates in a holding pattern, but dropped its recent mention of inflation making progress,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“With threats and speculation flying around about trade tariffs and the potential impact on consumer prices, its little wonder policymakers seem in no rush to cut rates again, especially given the resilience of the US economy.”

The S&P 500 sank after the decision was released yesterday evening, but most of the lost ground was quickly recovered as a raft of earnings from US tech giants had a net positive on US indices. Meta rose on strong results but Microsoft shares fell as cloud revenue growth slowed. Tesla investors choose to look past a soft quarter to the promise of earnings growth over the coming year.

Although there was still evidence of concern around the emergence of DeepSeek as Nvidia shares slipped back again in US trade yesterday, the pessimism looks to be largely focused on chipmakers, with most of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ unscathed.

The turnaround in the final hours of US trade translated into an upbeat start in Europe, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.3% at the time of writing.

Shell shares rose following the release of fourth-quarter results. Shell released an earnings teaser earlier this month that dampened the impact of final quarterly results, so the sharp drop in adjusting earnings and EBITDA were largely priced in. 

“Shell’s fourth-quarter underlying profit slumped 39% on a sequential basis to $3.6bn, bringing the full-year total to $23.7bn, 16% lower than 2023,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The slowdown at the end of 2024 reflected lower margins in its trading businesses as well as the marketing division which includes its network of petrol forecourts. Lower oil prices also played their part. Exploration well write-offs were another headwind reflecting the increasing difficulty of discovering new sources of hydrocarbons.

“But one thing that has kept flowing is cash. Shell generated $8.7bn of free cash flow in the final quarter and nearly $40bn over the year as a whole.”

Oil is finding its feet after several days of declines, which is providing additional support for Shell. BP rose in sympathy.

BT Group was the top faller after the company issued yet another disappointing trading update that revealed little to no growth across all business units.

“BT fell 4.1% after a patchy third quarter. It’s all well and good talking about cost transformation when sales are falling nearly across the board. Openreach was the only business area to show revenue progression,” explained Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

CT Private Equity Trust Investor Presentation January 2025 

Download the Presentation Slides here.

CT Private Equity Trust offers a simple way to become a Private Equity Investor. We make it possible for smaller, individual investors to access the complex world of private equity and make it part of their investment portfolio simply by buying our shares.

We invest in high-quality small and mid-sized private companies, mainly across the UK, Europe and US, that are growing, profitable and have the management and strategy to continue to succeed. Opportunities are sourced by our large and well-established network of expert Private Equity managers. Our diversified strategy means that we are invested in over 500 companies with 50 carefully selected Private Equity managers, aiming to reduce risk and helping us find the best small and mid-size companies at attractive prices.

Our lead fund manager, Hamish Mair and his team have managed the trust’s investments since launch over 25 years ago. Hamish is one of only eight fund managers in the world to outperform Warren Buffett over the last 20 years*.

*Source: AJ Bell article “The funds and trusts that have beaten Warren Buffett” 1st May 2024

Neuberger Berman Private Equity Partners Investor Presentation January 2025 

Download the Presentation Slides here.

Managed by Neuberger Berman, a leading private markets investor, NBPE leverages the strength of Neuberger Berman’s platform, relationships, deal flow and expertise to access the most attractive investment opportunities, providing shareholders with access to a portfolio of direct investments diversified by manager, sector, geography and size.

Oakley Capital Investments Investor Presentation January 2025 

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Oakley Capital Investments (“OCI”) offers shareholders consistent long-term returns in excess of the FTSE All-Share Index by providing exposure to private equity returns, where value is typically created through market growth, consolidation and performance improvements.

OCI invests in Funds managed by Oakley Capital, which partners with high-growth founder-led European businesses across four complementary sectors. Oakley Capital is a leading private equity firm specialising in fast-growing, mid-market companies in the technology, consumer, education and business services sectors.

HarbourVest Global Private Equity Investor Presentation January 2025

Download the Presentation Slides here.

HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) is a listed investment company that provides investors with access to private company investments. Listed on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, HVPE sits in the FTSE 250 and has net assets of $4.0 billion and a market capitalisation of approximately £1.9 billion as at 30 September 2024.

HVPE exists to create value for shareholders by providing easy access to a diversified global portfolio of high-quality private equity investments, managed by HarbourVest Partners. HVPE invests exclusively in HarbourVest managed funds.

HarbourVest Partners is an independent, global private markets asset manager with over 42 years of experience and a long track record of accessing private company investment opportunities.

Greencore Group trading update impresses

This morning’s Q1 Trading Update from leading convenience foods maker, the Greencore Group (LON:GNC), reported that the 13 weeks up to 27th December 2024 showed a 7.5% increase in reported revenues. 
With strong market positions in a range of categories including sandwiches, salads, sushi, chilled snacking, chilled ready meals, chilled soups and sauces, chilled quiche, ambient sauces, pickles and frozen Yorkshire Puddings, the group supplies all of the major supermarkets in the UK, as well as convenience and travel retail outlets, discounters, coffee shops, foodservice and other retailers...

Fever-Tree inks ‘transformational’ partnership with US giant Molson Coors

Premium mixer brand Fever-Tree has announced a strategic partnership with beverage giant Molson Coors, marking a significant development in its US expansion strategy.

The partnership grants Molson Coors exclusive rights for sales, distribution, and production of Fever-Tree products across the United States.

Fever-Tree has established itself as America’s leading tonic and ginger beer brand since entering the market in 2008. Under the new agreement, Fever-Tree will leverage Molson Coors’ extensive national distribution network and commercial infrastructure to accelerate its growth in both the on-trade and off-trade sectors.

As part of the agreement, Molson Coors will acquire an 8.5 per cent stake in Fever-Tree for £71.0 million, representing a price of 654.2 pence per share.

Fever-Tree plans to return these proceeds to shareholders through a share buyback programme, scheduled to commence in February 2025. Fever-Tree investors were in desperate need of some good news after years of spluttering sales growth and declines for the shares. Today’s announcement offers a glimmer of hope.

The partnership includes substantial marketing investment and plans to establish local US production facilities, utilising Molson Coors’ supply chain expertise. This move is expected to generate significant operational efficiencies for Fever-Tree’s American operations.

“Today’s announcement marks a transformational step for the Fever-Tree brand in the US.  Thanks to the superb work of our US team, we have seen Fever-Tree become the number one brand in both the tonic and ginger beer categories, a remarkable achievement which has redefined the US mixer category amongst consumers and customers alike,” said Tim Warrillow, co-founder and CEO of Fever-Tree.

“But what is so exciting is that as the Fever-Tree brand has grown in the US, so has the opportunity ahead of us, reflecting the increasing number of categories and occasions that our products are relevant to.”

Trading in 2025: Navigating the Future of Financial Markets 

Trading is changing. In 2025, new technology, changing regulations and market upheaval means that we’re entering a period of uncertainty, and traders and investors are having to ajdust to this change. So how do you find the best strategies and platforms to navigate the complexities of the financial markets in 2025? 

Selecting the Right CFD Broker 

One of the key players here is the CFD broker. The CFD broker enables traders to speculate on the price movements of a variety of financial instruments like equities, commodities, indexes, and cryptocurrencies, without actually needing to hold the underlying asset. 

That gives traders plenty of flexibility to take both long and short positions, putting themselves in a position to profit if the market falls or rises. CFD brokers are carving out a bigger share of the financial market going into 2025, thanks to this flexibility and what it can offer to an expanding client base, in terms of cutting-edge trading platforms and new tradable instruments. 

Of course, traders hoping to make the most of any market opportunities in 2025 have to choose a dependable CFD broker. Key things to remember when picking a broker are their regulatory status, the features of their trading platform, fee structure, and range of options. 

Technological Advancements and AI Integration 

Bringing artificial intelligence (AI) into trading platforms has dramatically changed the way that  traders can analyse markets and carry out their trades. AI algorithms are designed to work through huge piles of data to spot trends and patterns. They’re especially good at spotting trends that a trader might overlook, improving the decision-making and helping to trade more efficently. 

That said, traders are still cautious. With industry leaders like Steven Desmyter –head of Man Group, the largest publicly traded hedge fun– saying that AI will have to show measurable economic value in 2025 and prove it’s worth in the marketplace. 

Rise of Electronic Market-Makers 

Traditional banks are up against stiff competition from electronic market-makers. Firms using cutting-edge analytics are executing trades more efficiently, they can even exploit orders with small price gaps. This is leading to a major shift by helping close the gap created by major banks, firms are now able to move into areas like bonds and commodity trading. 

It also means market-makers are able to hold positions for longer and service bigger clients. Directly challenging traditional banking operators market share, forcing them to adapt or give up ground. 

Market Outlook and Economic Indicators 

The economic situation in 2025 is likely to give traders a mix of opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, the US economy is likely to continue growing as the delayed effects of tight Federal Reserve monetary policy kick in, while anticipated new policies, including tax reforms and deregulation, may give a boost to growth. 

On the other hand, potential tariffs and immigration restrictions could bring stagflationary pressures into the economy, which will make things more complicated for traders. 

Risk Management and Regulatory Environment 

Risk management is a key component of any successful trading strategy. Traders are always advised to keep their portfolios diverse and to use tools like stop-loss orders to limit their exposure and their potential losses. 

One consistent factor in the regulatory environment is that financial authorities are focusing on policies that protect investors and maintain the integrity of markets, so choosing a broker who fully complies with all relevant regulation can add another layer of protection for your money. 

Conclusion 

The 2025 trading environment will be defined by fast-changing technologies, growing competition from new electronic market-makers, and complex economic conditions, influenced by policy shifts and upheavals. In this context, CFD brokers offer useful platforms for traders to negotiate uncertain markets with more confidence. 

By keeping updated with market trends, using the latest trading tools, and following sound risk management practices, traders can set themselves up for success in 2025. 

Dowlais agrees merger with American rival

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Automotive components supplier Dowlais Group (LON: DWL) is the best performer in the FTSE 250 index following its agreed merger with American Axle & Manufacturing. The cash and shares bid values Dowlais at £1.16bn. The share price is 10.3% higher at 75.375p.

Dowlais is effectively the former GKN automotive businesses and was spun out of aerospace company Melrose Industries (LON: MRO), the former AIM company now in the FTSE 100 index, in April 2023. The share price is trading at just over 50% of its peak in May 2023.

For each Dowlais share investors will receive 42p/share in cash and 0.0863 of an American Axle & Manufacturing. They will also receive a 2024 final dividend of up to 2.8p/share. That values each Dowlais share at 85.2p each at an American Axle & Manufacturing share price of $5.82.

The combination will create a leading drivetrain and metal forming business. It will have a wider range of customers. There could be annual cost savings of $300m by the end of the third year after the combination. The exceptional charges to achieve this could be equivalent to one year of the full savings.

Purchasing should yield 50% of the savings due to economies of scale and the internal supply of products. Cutting out listing costs and eliminating duplications should save 30% of the savings and the rest will come from improved efficiency.

AIM movers: Naked Wines slows decline and React expectations trimmed

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Naked Wines (LON: WINE) has decelerated the rate of decline in revenues in the 13 weeks to the end of 2024. Even so, they declined by 10%, although revenues per member increased 2%. Cash improved to £30m as inventories are reduced. The share price rebounded 15.1% to 51.9p.

Angle (LON: AGL) revealed new data for the dual ctDNA and CTC DNA analysis on the Illumina platform. What this shows is in 27 patients, eight of them had not been treated and showed clinical variants in circulating tumour cells not identified by ctDNA. These variants were also identified in some of the other patients. Illumina could sell Angle’s Parsortix liquid biopsy services to its existing users. The share price improved 15.1% to 15.25p.

A trading statement from vehicle interiors supplier CT Automotive (LON: CTA) led to slightly downgrades. Pre-tax profit will still be at least $8.6m, up from $8.3m in 2023. Revenues fell from $143m to $117m. Margins will improve as capacity utilisation increases. Although 2025 forecasts have been trimmed, pre-tax profit is still expected to improve to $10.5m. The share price recovered 13.6% to 33.5p.

Nostra Terra Oil & Gas (LON: NTOG) has renewed its $10m lending facility with WAFD Bank until January 2028. The share price increased 10.1% to 0.038p.

Aerospace components supplier Velocity Composites (LON: VEL) significantly increased US revenues and group revenues jumped from £16.4m to £23m in the year to October 2024. The underlying loss fell from £2.8m to £1.2m. There have been delays due to problem at Boeing, but there should be continued growth from new work. The UK operations will benefit from increasing Airbus production.  Velocity Composites should breakeven this year. The share price rose 10.5% to 31.5p.

FALLERS

Cleaning services provider React (LON: REAT) grew full year revenues by 6% to £20.7m despite the ending of a rail contract because margins were going to be reduced. Pre-tax profit improved from £1.8m to £2.1m. Singer has trimmed expectations for the year to September 2025, but pre-tax profit is expected to rise to £2.8m, helped by an initial contribution from plumbing services provider Aquaflow. The share price declined 11.1% to 76.5p.

Shore Capital has increased its stake in United Oil & Gas (LON: UOG) from 11.8% to 12.2%. This follows the issue of 59.5 million shares to Rockhopper Exploration (LON: RKH) to settle an outstanding liability. The United Oil & Gas share price slipped 11.6% to 0.1025p.

A fair value write-down of legal cases by Litigation Capital Management (LON: LIT) offset gains from recent wins. The biggest write-down was for the Queensland Electricity trial that was lost. There was a swing to loss in the six months to December 2024. On the positive side, realisations were A$52m from A$14m invested. There have been fewer new cases signed up because of lack of business that meets the investment criteria. The share price fell 9.35% to 83.4p.

Clinical trials manager hVIVO (LON: HVO) is acquiring two clinical research units from Germany-based CRS for €10m. This will broaden the range of phase I and phase II trials that can be provided. Last year’s revenues were €19.9m and the acquisition should be earnings enhancing in 2026. The group order book is £67m and 2025 revenues guidance for hVIVO is £73m, up from £62.7m. Year-end cash was £44.2m. The market has reacted negatively, and the share price dipped 8.09% to 18.75p.