Morning Round-Up: Sainsbury’s growth, Fed stick on rates, poor European figures

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Sainsbury’s posts sales growth Supermarket Sainsbury’s reported its first quarterly sales growth in over two years on Tuesday, another sign that British grocers are adjusting to the tough market. The group saw sales at stores open over a year rise by 0.1 percent in its fiscal fourth quarter, beating analysts expectations of a fall of 0.6 percent. An increase in sales is likely to help the supermarket’s bid for Argos owner Home Retail, a deal that has been in the running for some months. On Tuesday, Sainsbury’s chief executive Mike Coupe would not address press speculation that the group would make a higher offer for Home Retail, but added: “The Argos bid is not a must-do deal at any price and if it doesn’t go ahead then Sainsbury’s will continue,” Mr Coupe said. Federal Reserve unlikely to raise rates
The Federal Reserve will not be raising rates at their monthly meeting this week, as low oil prices and stock market volatility continues to have an effect. However, they are likely to make it clear that, as US inflation and jobs strengthen, rates will start rising again. At the beginning of this year, when the Fed raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade, they hinted that rates may be raised several times in 2016. It is now more likely that rate rises will be taken at a slower pace. France and Italy see slow economic growth Growth in the French economy will fall short of expectations in 206, according to the country’s central bank governor on Tuesday. Economists say 1.5 percent growth is the minimum needed to lower France’s persistently high unemployment rate, which remains above 10 percent. There was also disappointing news from elsewhere in Europe, as Italy reported that it fell back into deflation in February. Consumer prices fell by 0.2 percent, with inflation on a national basis fell by 0.5 percent.   15/03/2016
 

Oil falls 2 percent as Iran refuses to curb production

Oil prices fell by around 2% this on Tuesday morning, with Brent crude futures trading 77 cents down now at $38.76 per barrel and U.S. crude futures also down 77 cents trading at $36.41 a barrel. Concerns of the falling oil prices continue as Iran has put off plans to join the nations proposing a freeze on production, with the oil minister Bijan Zanganeh saying that Iran would only enter discussions after its production has hit 4 million barrels per day. Bijan Zanganesh said at the weekend: “I have already announced my view regarding the oil freeze and I’m saying now that as long as we have not reached four million in production, they should leave us alone. When we reach this level of production, we can then co-operate with them.” According to OPEC’s monthly oil report, Iran produced 3.1 million barrels in February. Analysts remain concerned with Iran’s reluctance to curb oil production. Oil prices have fallen 70% since prices were $115 a barrel in June 2014. In February, Saudi and Russia struck deals with OPEC to freeze production at January levels.

Daily Round-Up: Eurozone output up, oil down, Anbang in hotel deal

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Eurozone industrial output into positive territory

Eurozone industrial output rose by 2.1 percent in January, after a sharp increase in production from Ireland pushed the figure up to its highest rate in over six years.

The 2.1 percent figure was well above the negative readings produced in both in November and December. Output was driven by a 12.7 percent increase in Irish industrial output, as well as strong growth in capital goods. However, analysts countered these figures with warnings that growth is unlikely to be sustained at this rate. Oil down on Iran dispute Oil prices fell around 3 percent on Monday, bringing prices down from last weeks highs after Iran said it would be unlikely to join in any production agreement in the near future. WTI Crude is currently trading at $38.50 per barrel, with Brent up slightly this afternoon at $40.39 (1556GMT). Chinese Anbang buys US hotels from Blackstone

Chinese insurer Anbang has agreed to buy Strategic Hotels & Resorts, the US luxury hotel chain that owns several Four Seasons resorts, for $6.5 billion.

Its current owners, equity giants Blackstone, are selling the group just three months after buying it themselves in a deal set to become the biggest US property purchase by a mainland Chinese buyer.

14/03/2016

Buy Rating: Defensive Stock to Provide Safe Haven in Brexit Uncertainity

Buy Note: FTSE 100 Safe Haven Defensive Stock

For those seeking safety in the run-up to this year’s ‘Brexit’ referendum and want stay clear of overvalued bonds and volatile gold, this may be the answer.

This stock can boast during the financial crisis it only fell 39% from peak to trough, whilst some of its peers plummeted more than 70%. The defensive characteristics of this share means it is likely to be steady throughout any Brexit concerns this year whilst paying a respectable dividend for income seekers.

Key Considerations:

  • Guidance for margin improvements in 2015

  • Consistent dividend increases

  • EPS increases of 8%

  • $4.6 revenue

Download this report now for free for a limited time.

A copy will be emailed to you immediately.

Copyright Fat Prophets® is a registered trade mark/trading name of Mint Financial (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Number 220591, registered in England and Wales, Number 04255908, with a registered office at 100 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 5JD. (www.fatprophets.co.uk)
DISCLAIMER The views and opinions expressed herein are for information purposes only. They are subject to change without notice, and do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of any particular person. They should not be viewed as recommendations, independent research, or advice of any kind. The views accurately reflect the personal views of the author. They are not personal recommendations and should not be regarded as solicitations or offers to buy or sell any of the securities or instruments mentioned. The views are based on public information that we considers reliable but does not represent that the information contained herein is accurate or complete. With investment comes risk. The price and value of investments mentioned and income arising from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not an indicator of future results, and future returns are not guaranteed. We acknowledge an individual’s tax situation is unique and tax legislation may be subject to change in the future

UK growth forecast downgraded; public’s inflation expectation drops

The UK’s growth forecast has been downgraded today by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), who cited “global headwinds and uncertainty” facing the economy. The BCC now expects the UK’s economy to grow by 2.2 percent this year, a downwards revision from 2.5 percent. Its growth forecast for 2017 was cut to 2.3 percent, with growth of 2.4 percent forecast in 2018. However, services and consumer spending are expected to continue driving the UK economy. Public’s inflation expectations drop In other UK economic news, the British public’s expectation for inflation over the next 12 months fell to its lowest in more than 16 years, according to a survey released today by the Bank of England. Amongst the 4000 people polled last month, the average expectation for inflation sunk to 1.8 percent, down from 2 percent in November 2015.
11/03/2016

Morning Round-Up: Oil up, FBI v. Apple rages on, Old Mutual split

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Oil prices jump Oil prices have risen from Thursday’s lows, supported by a strong yuan and a weaker dollar. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were trading at $38.66 a barrel this morning (0409GMT), over 2 percent up from their last close. The positive fluctuation was due to the Chinese yuan hitting its highest level in 2016 on Friday at 6.4877 per dollar, encouraged by a global weakening of the dollar – which could potentially provide a much-needed rise in demand. Thursday saw oil prices plummet back down after a major meeting between oil producers was stalled, as Iran refused to commit. DoJ accuse Apple of helping China, but not US The US Department of Justice have come to blows again with technology company Apple, this time claiming that Apple colluded with the Chinese government to circumvent security on its citizens iPhones.

Apple have hit back, accusing the DoJ of trying to “smear” the company with “desperate” and “unsubstantiated” claims.

This is the latest spat in the lawsuit between the DoJ and Apple, after Apple refused the FBI’s request to create software to circumvent security on the iPhone of San Bernardino killer Rizwan Farook. Apple’s general counsel Bruce Sewell responded to claims that Apple had aided the Chinese government with security requests in a conference call: “The tone of the brief reads like an indictment”. He said: “Everybody should beware because it seems like disagreeing with the Department of Justice means you must be evil and anti-American, nothing could be further from the truth.” Old Mutual to split after strategic review

Financial services firm Old Mutual (LON:OML) has announced its decision to split into four separate companies, after a lengthy strategic review into operations.

The company is listed in London and Johannesburg and has insurance, asset management and banking operations, and have seen its share price drop over the last year. Following the review, the company said its current structure was “too costly” and inefficient.

Bruce Hemphill, CEO, commented: “It’s a costly structure with insufficient synergies to justify those costs”

The announcement came as the firm reported a 4 percent rise in annual pre-tax adjusted operating profit to £1.7 billion. Its share price has dropped slightly this morning, trading down 0.81 percent at 183.80 (0905GMT).
11/03/2016
 

LIVE: ECB monetary policy decisions

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13:00 The ECB has released its latest monetary policy decisions from its meeting of the Governing Council today. The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0 percent, causing the euro to plummet 1.5 percent and German 2 year bonds to shoot upwards. Andrew Sentance, a former Bank of England policymaker, tweeted: “Monetary policy being pushed to the limits… and beyond!” 13:10 The bank also announced the decision to expand the scope of assets that it will buy through its quantative easing programme, which will now include investment-grade corporate bonds. The decision to buy government debt suggests that the ECB have upped their game after a disappointing meeting in December. 13:13 The ECB intend to raise inflation to 2 percent, which currently could take up to 15 years. Draghi has announced the decision to cut deposit facility to -0.400 percent. 13:20 FTSE up 0.54%, CAC40 up 2.63%, IBEX up 3.29% 13:30 ECB press conference with Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, and Vítor Constâncio, Vice President – live from Frankfurt am Main, Germany ECB conducted a “thorough review” extending into the year 2018 and aim to stimulate return of inflation to levels of or at 2 percent. Draghi: “To ensure the continued smooth implementation of asset purchases, increased issue share limits for purchase of securities issued by organisations from 33 percent to 50 percent.” 13:40 Governing council expects key interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. Draghi: ECB will launch four new refinancing operations – offering cheap four-year loans to banks. Loans could be as cheap as the ECB’s deposit rate, which has been cut to minus 0.4% today. “Growth dampened by volatile financial markets and the sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms.” 13:45 “Outlook for real GDP has been revised slightly down reflecting weaker growth prospects for the global economy.” Heightened uncertainties in the global economy and broader geo-political risks” will impact on inflation and the EU economy, continues Draghi. Projections for European Area see inflation 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018 – below its target of 2 percent. Outlook for inflation has been revised down, reflecting the fall in oil prices over recent months. Looking forward, Draghi said: “Long dynamics see path of gradual recovery observed since 2014.” Annual growth rate of loans to households remains stable at 1.4 percent in January 2016. 13:50 Public infrastructure is vital to increase investment and job creation. Draghi recommends swift implementation of structural reforms, and says schemes should be stepped up. “All countries should strive for a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies.” – End of Mario Draghi’s statement on today’s monetary policy decisions –

John Lewis reduces staff bonus after 11 percent profit fall

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151-year old department store chain John Lewis reported a full-year profit fall of nearly 11 percent, and reduced their staff bonus to 10 percent of their salary. John Lewis Partnership pay their employees – known as partners – an annual bonus as a percentage of their salary. This year it has fallen to 10 percent, down from 17 percent three years ago. However, the group also announced a 24 percent rise in annual profits before tax to £435 million, ending 30 January. Sir Charlie Mayfield, chairman of John Lewis Partnership, said: “The partnership has delivered a healthy trading performance and increased market shares in challenging conditions.” Its supermarket division Waitrose saw a 2 percent fall in operating profit to £232.6 million, with a 0.4 percent rise in sales on a like-for-like basis. Like-for-like sales at John Lewis department stores rose by 3.6 percent.
10/03/2016
 

Buy Rating: Defensive Stock to Provide Safe Haven in Brexit Uncertainity

Buy Note: FTSE 100 Safe Haven Defensive Stock

For those seeking safety in the run up to this year’s ‘Brexit’ referendum and want stay clear of overvalued bonds and volatile gold, this may be the answer.

This stock can boast during the financial crisis it only fell 39% from peak to trough whilst some of its peers plummeted more than 70% and is likely to be steady throughout any Brexit concerns this year whilst paying a respectable dividend.

Key Considerations:

  • Guidance for margin improvements in 2015

  • Consistent dividend increases

  • EPS increases of 8%

  • $4.6 revenue

Download this report now for free for a limited time.

A copy will be emailed to you immediately.

Copyright Fat Prophets® is a registered trade mark/trading name of Mint Financial (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Number 220591, registered in England and Wales, Number 04255908, with a registered office at 100 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 5JD. (www.fatprophets.co.uk)
DISCLAIMER The views and opinions expressed herein are for information purposes only. They are subject to change without notice, and do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of any particular person. They should not be viewed as recommendations, independent research, or advice of any kind. The views accurately reflect the personal views of the author. They are not personal recommendations and should not be regarded as solicitations or offers to buy or sell any of the securities or instruments mentioned. The views are based on public information that we considers reliable but does not represent that the information contained herein is accurate or complete. With investment comes risk. The price and value of investments mentioned and income arising from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not an indicator of future results, and future returns are not guaranteed. We acknowledge an individual’s tax situation is unique and tax legislation may be subject to change in the future

Morning Round-Up: Volkswagen CEO leaves, poor Morrisons results, oil down

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Volkswagen CEO to step down The US CEO and President of Volkswagen is stepping down, just months after the company was hit by an emissions scandal that rocked the car industry. Michael Horn’s departure was announced in a statement by Volkswagen this morning, and is effective immediately. It is said to be “through mutual agreement”, and he will be replaced on an interim basis by Hinrich J. Woebcken, the recently announced new Head of the North American Region and Chairman of Volkswagen Group of America. Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen brand, commented: “I want personally to say ‘thank you’ to Michael Horn for the great work he has done for the brand and with the dealers in the United States,” said Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen brand. “During his time in the U.S., Michael Horn built up a strong relationship with our national dealer body and showed exemplary leadership during difficult times for the brand,” he added. The long-standing German carmakers was hit late last year by the revelation that its ‘environmentally friendly’ Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche diesels were equipped with devices that lowered emissions results during tests. Almost 600,000 VW cars in the US were affected. Morrisons hit by further decline Troubled supermarket chain Morrisons have been hit by yet another disappointing set of financial results, marking their fourth straight year of decline. The company reported a 27 percent fall in annual profit on Thursday, despite signing a strategic deal with Amazon – a nine year low. It made an underlying pretax profit before one off items of 302 million pounds in the year to January 31st. Shares (LON:MRW) are trading down 1.04 percent at 199.90 (1007GMT). Oil prices dip again Oil prices fell on Thursday after hitting highs earlier this week, disappointing investors and causing further uncertainty. Expectations of more stimulus from the European Central Bank’s meeting this week, which would strengthen the dollar against the euro, also affected markets. After a 5 percent rise on Wednesday, Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $40.57 per barrel (0805GMT), with US crude CLc1 down 32 cents at $37.97 per barrel. Analysts warned that the gains earlier this week were unusual, and that with supply still outstripping demand, the glut is expected to continue well into 2017.  
 10/03/2016