Ocado Retail upgrades revenue guidance as sales jump

Ocado Retail has announced a significant upgrade to its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 after a bumper period of trading for its joint venture with Marks & Spencer.

Ocado has revised its previous projection of mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth to a low double-digit percentage increase. This upward adjustment follows an impressive third-quarter performance, in which retail revenue surged by 15.5% to reach £658 million. Profit guidance remains unchanged.

The decision to raise revenue guidance is underpinned by Ocado’s remarkable streak as the UK’s fastest-growing grocer for seven consecutive months. Investors have dumped Ocado’s stock this year on concerns about the technology side of the business, but the retail run should be something to take some encouragement from.

Ocado’s pricing mix has helped support sales and grow average weekly orders. Total items sold increased 15.4% year-on-year, and average weekly orders rose 14.7%, reaching 437,000. Ocado’s active customer base expanded 10.3% year-on-year to 1.06 million.

Ocado has managed to maintain a broadly flat average basket value of £120.97.

“Our strategy remains focused on giving our customers unbeatable choice, unrivalled service and reassuringly good value. We’re seeing the momentum of this, with more customers shopping with us more often, getting even better service at better value,” said Hannah Gibson, Ocado Retail’s Chief Executive Officer.

“We know what our customers love, and we’re focused on our proposition every day. This includes our widest ever choice including more M&S food, more convenience with better availability of delivery slots and products, further improving our high perfect order rate and better value for money through our Ocado Price Promise and our latest Big Price Drop.

“We’re pleased with the progress we’re making and excited about how much more there is to deliver.”

AIM movers: Ingenta delays and Christie Group loses mandate

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Arkle Resources (LON: ARK) says that sampling has started in the Makgadikgadi Salt Pans in Botswana. There is potential lithium bearing brine below the crust. Initial sampling will take two weeks. In Zimbabwe, Arkle Resources is seeking traces of spodumene or lepidolite rock. The share price rose 11.1% to 0.25p.

Sovereign Metals (LON: SVML) says a spiral concentrator plant has been installed at the Kasiya project in Malawi. This has a capacity of three tonnes per hour and will produce graphite. The main focus of the project is rutile. Both minerals are visible at surface. The share price improved 6.56% to 32.5p.

Global Petroleum (LON: GBP) has appointed Omar Alumad, who the company says has a record of identifying early opportunities, as chief executive and Hamza Choudhry as finance director. The share price increased 5.88% to 0.09p.

Ascent Resources (LON: AST) has raised £763,000 at 2.3p/share – the same as the April placing price. The share price is 5.88% higher at 1.8p, although it was 1.9p earlier. Investment vehicle CB Energy VI has subscribed for the shares. Substantial shareholder MBD Partners will receive an introducers fee of $25,000.

FALLERS

Publishing technology provider Ingenta (LON: ING) increased income from the content division, but the commercial division revenues were down by one-fifth due to customers taking longer to convert interest into sales. Overall revenues were 12% lower at £5.1m, while pre-tax profit halved. Cavendish forecasts revenues will be 7% lower than previously expected, despite two new content contracts, and the pre-tax profit forecast has been cut slightly more to £1.6m, which is below the levels in 2022 and 2023. The share price slumped 21.6% to 92.5p.

Jade Road Investments (LON: JADE) has constituted up to £1m of principal value convertible loan notes lasting 10 months. There is no interest charge, and the conversion price is a 30% discount to the lowest closing bid price in the 30 days prior to conversion. Jade Road Investments has issued £80,000 of convertibles to strategic partner MBM. The share price declined 15.4% to 0.55p.

Shore Capital has downgraded its full year expectations for Christie Group (LON: CTG) following a trading statement by the professional services company. Revenues will be near to previous expectations, but a pre-tax profit of £1.6m has been recalculated as a loss of £600,000 even after a lower estimate for incentivised pay. This is due to one major disposal mandate not going ahead. There was also weaker trading in other activities. The interims will be published on 30 September. The share price slipped 11.45 to 97.5p.

Delayed projects by aerospace clients due to supply issues have hit demand for Velocity Composites (LON: VEL). The Airbus A350 production has not accelerated as expected. These are all outside factors. The outsourced composite aerospace components supplier was expected to breakeven this year, but a loss of £1.5m is likely. Breakeven has been delayed until next year. The share price fell 7.95% to 40.5p.

FTSE 100 slips as interest rate concerns creep in

The FTSE 100 was in the red on Wednesday as interest rate concerns crept into markets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates decision tonight and the Bank of England’s tomorrow.

Markets seemed immune to interest rate worries earlier in the week, but a mixed UK inflation report released on Wednesday sparked a wave of selling in early trade.

“The optimism which had been simmering on financial markets is coming off the boil ahead of crunch interest rate decisions,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“While inflation in the UK is unchanged at 2.2%, a rise in services inflation mainly due to a big leap in airfare costs is likely to keep policymakers more reticent about reducing rates again on Thursday. The FTSE 100 has fallen back slightly in early trade as uncertainty surrounds central bank policy.”

Investors will also have one eye on the Fed and the extent they cut later today. The Federal Reserve is widely predicted to cut interest rates later. However, the big question is whether they cut by 25bps or 50bps and risk unnerving markets with a negative market assessment.

“Traders have priced in a 61% chance of the Fed cutting US rates by half a percentage point today,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“That feels like a step too far as the Fed might want to start the rate cut journey slow and steady, rather than going in headfirst with a big cut as that might send negative signals to the market that it is really worried about the state of the economy.”

Legal & General

Legal & General shares were under pressure on Wednesday after the group announced it was disposing of UK house builder CALA Group as part of their capital allocation plans. L&G’s capital allocation strategy didn’t go down well with investors when it was announced earlier this year, and its latest move hasn’t either. Shares were down 1.9%.

“Legal & General was among the top fallers on the FTSE 100 after announcing the sale of its housebuilding business, Cala. Investors might be disappointed that it isn’t getting the full £1.16 billion cash up front. Just over half the money will be paid over a five-year period,” Russ Mould said.

“Legal & General’s shares have been weak since its strategy update in June. Therefore, it’s not a surprise to see the company imply it might use some of the sale proceeds to fund share buybacks as it needs to deliver some more positive news to win back the market’s favour.”

An upgrade to ‘buy’ from Goldman Sachs analysts helped IHG to the top of the leaderboard with a 2% gain.

Tekcapital announces plans to IPO Generative AI pure play GenIP

Tekcapital shares gained on Wednesday after it announced plans to list its Generative AI portfolio company GenIP on AIM and provide UK-focused investors with the opportunity to gain exposure to a pure play in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence market.

In a surprise announcement released on Wednesday, Tekcapital CEO Cliff Gross said, “We are excited to announce the forthcoming IPO of GenIP plc. A product of Tekcapital’s technology incubator, GenIP’s Invention Evaluator and Vortechs have been instrumental in commercialising numerous technological innovations, allowing them to develop from a clean piece of paper to operating companies and listed spinouts.”

Investors were evidently encouraged by the news, with Tekcapital shares jumping 10% in the early minutes of trade.

Tekcapital had previously announced plans to launch a Generative AI company. However, shareholders will note that with GenIP, Tekcapital has broken with its traditional model of forming technology companies as private entities and providing growth capital before listing them.

Tekcapital has decided the best approach is to offer GenIP to public markets as soon as possible and provide investors with the opportunity to take a stake in the company in the very early stage of it’s growth story.

Despite only launching its Generative AI services recently, GenIP has won over 40 orders for its AI-powered analytical assessments, which help research organisations judge the commercial viability of new technologies.

According to GenIP’s website, their clients include leading institutions such as Brazil’s National Nuclear Energy Commission CNEN, Fundación Copec UC, and the University of Huddersfield.

“We believe that GenIP’s unique business model offers investors a valuable opportunity to engage with the rapidly expanding Generative AI analytics market and the research institutions and technology companies that fuel much of the world’s innovation,” said Melissa Cruz, CEO of GenIP.

GenIP will be Tekcapital’s second IPO of 2024 after the company listed MicroSalt in February. MicroSalt shares tripled within six months of listing before falling back.

Good Energy – Despite Lower First-Half Revenues, Broker Predictions Are For 53% Increase In Earnings, With Price Objectives Of Twice The Current Price 

Don’t worry about the lower figures reported in yesterday’s Interim Results from Good Energy (LON:GOOD) – its shares are substantially under-rated. 

The group, which is a supplier of 100% renewable power and an innovator in energy services, reported a strong first half of the year during a period of normalised trading and stability, with solid profit in energy supply and promising indicators from consolidation in services.  

Good Energy, which has long-term power purchase agreements with a community of more than 2,500 independent UK generators, saw its lower first-half revenues reflecting externally driven commodity costs,  

CEO Nigel Pocklington, CEO, Good Energy Group PLC: 

“As the energy supply market has normalised, we have shown strong profitability in the first half of the year, whilst our expansion into energy services is showing promise as we consolidate our offer to customers.” 

“Having completed three acquisitions in the clean energy installation services space we are now offering solar, storage, heat pumps and EV charging across the South - a trusted, truly green brand offering whole greener home and business solutions.  

Good Energy is established as the microgeneration specialist, with a significant market share of rooftop solar customers, leading export tariff rates and premium installation services.” 

In a favourable policy environment promising an imminent ‘rooftop revolution’ as the new government accelerates the clean energy transition, Good Energy is well placed for growth.” 

The Interims to end-June showed revenues down to £97.4m (£156.1m), with the pre-tax profit lower at £4.4m (£13.1m), slicing half-time earnings to 15.6p (72.0p) per share, with a slightly higher Interim dividend at 1.1p (1.0p) per share. 

However, reflecting generated cash, the group’s balance was off just £1.4m at £39.9m (£41.3m) cash. 

Analyst Views 

Charles Archer at Kemeny Capital was spot on in his Research Report issued in early May this year, when the report stated that: 

“Looking ahead Good Energy Group is well positioned to offer a differentiated green energy supply to homes and businesses, alongside premium high margin installation services of various renewable energy hardware solutions — and recurring services to maintain them.  

2024 trading is so far in line with management expectations. While revenue and cost of sales are expected to be lower this year due to lower wholesale costs and associated tariffs, this does reflect a return to more normalised supply segment margin levels.  

Energy services are expected to be a material profit driver by 2025, while Zapmap remains a segregated investment which could provide a large boost to the bottom line over time.” 

Its shares were then 250p, with Archer considering that Good Energy’s growth potential is not properly reflected in the current valuation, putting out a 407p fair value target suggesting a 62.8% upside. 

After yesterday’s Interim Results analyst Alex Brooks at Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets reiterated his Buy rating on the group’s shares, looking for 500p as his Price Objective, based on a ‘sum-of-parts’, which values the distribution and supply businesses separately to the services and Zap-Map EV mapping business. 

For the full year to end-December, his estimates are for 20% easing in sales to £203.5m (£254.7m), but with profits 17.5%n higher at £6.7m (£5.7m), boosting adjusted earnings to 26.0p (17.0p) and enabling a 3.6p (3.3p) dividend per share. 

A slight improvement in sales in 2025 to £205.3m, could see £10.7m profits and a lifting of earnings to 45.5p per share, with just a 3.9p dividend. 

In My View 

On the basis of the broker’s estimates the shares of Good Energy, now at 250p valuing the group at £45m, look to be incredibly lowly-rated, especially considering its potential to jack up its earnings by 75% in the next year. 

AFC Energy accelerates ammonia cracking push with new subsidiary

AFC Energy has stepped up its push into ammonia cracking with the launch of wholly-owned subsidiary Hyamtec Limited, aimed at commercialising the company’s next-generation distributed ammonia cracking business.

Ultimately, the goal is Hyamtec’s offering will help provide an affordable route to hydrogen energy production.

Hyamtec’s key technology advantage lies in its ability to enable industries to decarbonise without the need for extensive new infrastructure, which could significantly lower the barriers to adoption.

AFC Energy has invested years of research and substantial resources into pioneering the design and development of modular, compact ammonia crackers. The company says Hyamtec can potentially transform multiple sectors, from heavy industry to transportation. Hyamtec is targeting ammonia conversion for large-capacity combustion engines in power generation, marine, and mining sectors.

The company is also set to provide modular, purified hydrogen production for fuel cells and transport applications, addressing the growing demand for clean mobility solutions.

Hyamtec’s cracker technology has already demonstrated impressive versatility. It has successfully integrated with both ammonia combustion engines and technologies designed to purify hydrogen for fuel cell applications. This flexibility offers practical, scalable solutions for industries grappling with high decarbonisation costs and infrastructure challenges.

As a wholly owned subsidiary of AFC Energy, the company believes Hyamtec will have increased flexibility in seeking financing for its growth.

“The global transition to net zero is driving the urgent need for innovative hydrogen solutions, and ammonia cracking is emerging as a key enabler for industries aiming to decarbonise,” said Gary Bullard, Chief Executive of AFC Energy.

“With years of investment behind us, AFC Energy has built a robust ammonia cracking technology that aligns perfectly with the needs of heavy industry. The creation of Hyamtec allows us to fully capitalise on this technology, bringing it to market in a way that unlocks new growth opportunities, both in the UK and globally.

“We are excited to offer a scalable solution that can significantly lower hydrogen costs for industrial use without requiring extensive new infrastructure. This approach, combined with the strength of our existing fuel cell business, positions us to provide dual pathways for cleaner energy solutions. By showcasing the unique potential of Hyamtec, we invite strategic partners and investors to join us in accelerating the adoption of hydrogen technologies and driving the next wave of industrial decarbonisation.”

AIM movers: Another upgrade for Warpaint London and like-for-like growth at DP Poland

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Audio visual services provider Mediazest (LON: MDZ) has received more than £500,000 in new orders from existing customers over the past two months. A car manufacturing client accounts for the majority of the value of the orders. The company is progressing towards a return to profitability. The share price is one-fifth higher at 0.09p.

Yet another upgrade for Warpaint London (LON: W7L) from Shore Capital following the interim figures today. There was strong growth in Europe and the UK. North America grew slightly but the focus is higher margin business. Gross margins continue to improve. Overall group sales were one-quarter ahead at £45.8m and pre-tax profit jumped from £6.3m to £11m. The full year pre-tax profit forecast has been raised 5% to £24.5m. The share price increased 9.69% to 566p.

Trading at Sancus Lending (LON: LEND) was below expectations in the first half as management focused on the quality of lending. This, and the lower cost base, should lead to improved trading in the second half and move the business into profit later in the year. A full year loss of nearly £1m is still forecast. The share price rose 11.1% to 0.5p.

DP Poland (LON: DPP) generated like-for-like growth of 22% in the first half and the growth remains above 20% in the second half. Money raised this year is being invested in new Domino’s sites in Poland. There is also growth in franchising with four corporate stores sold to an overseas operator. The loss is reducing, and DP Poland could move into profit in 2025. The share price improved 4.88% to 10.75p. The April fundraising was at 9.92p.

FALLERS

Interim results from Bushveld Minerals (LON: BMN) show Vanchem as a discontinued activity ahead of its planned sale, which could happen in October. Continuing revenues fell from $5.1m to $25.6m as sales of vanadium fell by one-third and the realised price dropped. There was a free cash outflow of $18.1m and net debt reached $124m by the end of June 2024. Annualised savings of up to $10m are being made. There was cash of $4.1m at the end of August 2024. There are plans to sell Lemur. The share price dipped 10.5% to 0.425p.

Deutsche Bank has changed its recommendation for Avacta (LON: AVCT) to sell with a price target of 40p. This follows Monday’s announcement of updated phase 1 clinical data of AVA6000. It is safe and stable and there is observed efficacy. The share price declined 14.3% to 60p.

Plastic products manufacturer Coral Products (LON: CRU) reported a dip in full year revenues from £35.2m to £31m, while pre-tax profit slumped from £2.3m to £800,000. Lower margin business is being shed. Net debt was higher than expected at £7.8m. Property sales will boost the balance sheet, and it could fall to £5.1m by next April. Weaker demand has continued into the new financial year, but this is being offset by improved efficiency. Pre-tax profit could recover to £1.8m this year. The share price is 15.6% lower at 9.5p.

Shares in oil and gas company Bowleven (LON: BLVN) have fallen 14.3% to p ahead of the exit from AIM on 23 September. JP Jenkins will provide a matched bargain facility.

FTSE 100 rallies ahead of rates decisions, Kingfisher soars

The volatility at the beginning of August is now a distant memory, with global equities resuming their upwards trajectory and US and UK stocks trading near record highs.

The FTSE 100 is around 1.5% away from record highs, while the S&P 500 closed last night less than 1% away from all-time highs.

“European equity indices pushed ahead on Tuesday, including a 0.75% increase in the FTSE 100 as investors were in a risk-on mood. Banks, commodity producers and consumer-facing companies helped lead the charge ahead of the all-important US interest rate decision tomorrow,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. 

“Gains were seen across most of the UK market, with only five FTSE 100 stocks in negative territory including British American Tobacco.”

As Russ Mould alludes to, the Federal Reserves’ predicted interest rate cut is the key driver of the equity gains on Tuesday. UK investors will be happy to see the FTSE 100 higher even though markets are pricing for a hold of UK interest rates at Thursday’s meeting.

“Interest rates aren’t expected to go anywhere later this week, with the Bank broadly expected to hold rates at 5% after August’s cut,” said Laura Suter, director of personal finance at AJ Bell.

“The Bank has been keen to reiterate that it will not move too swiftly to cut interest rates, meaning holding rates this month would stick to that playbook. Markets are pricing in a roughly two-thirds probability of rates remaining unchanged this month, leaving a chance of a cut to 4.75%. As always, these forecasts are based on market prices, which bounce around a bit and are vulnerable to fresh economic data shocks. With inflation data due this week, we can’t rule out an unexpected change to that impacting the Bank’s decision.

Investors will be encouraged that UK equities can withstand any concerns about the Bank of England not embarking on sharp interest rate cuts and are seemingly not reliant on a lower interest rate environment to carve out gains.

Kingfisher

Kingfisher was the FTSE 100’s top riser after the DIY group upgraded its profit forecast for the year as cost-cutting measures outweighed softer revenues.

The company has been under pressure in recent years as consumers hold back from big purchases amid higher interest rates and rising inflation. However, the company’s assertive action to reduce costs has been well received by investors, and today’s 6% gain takes the stock to its highest level since early 2022.

“It’s clearly still been tough going in the home renovation market, as consumers have tightened their belts amid high borrowing costs but there are bigger chinks of light at the end of the tunnel,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“With more interest rate cuts eyed on the horizon, and the housing market starting to spring into life, the outlook looks better, leading Kingfisher to improve its profit outlook. A spurt of better weather later in the summer is likely to have helped propel sales of seasonal ranges.

“This is a trend also flagged up in the latest snapshot from the British Retail Consortium, which showed that as the sun shone more in August, shoppers were more encouraged to snap up DIY and gardening items and host BBQs.  The company is now expecting adjusted pretax profit to come in between £510 and £550 million, instead of in a range of £490 to £550 million.”

Kingfisher shares surge as full year profit guidance increased

Kingfisher shares jumped on Tuesday after the DIY specialist announced half-year results that weren’t as bad as expected.

Investors are becoming accustomed to Kingfisher’s poor updates, and any hint of positivity can have a material impact. 

That positivity came in the form of half-year results that beat expectations on Tuesday, although revenue still fell over the period. Sales were down 1.8% to £6.75bn.

Consumers still concerned about high interest rates and feeling the effects of inflation are holding off on big-ticket purchases, which is affecting B&Q owner’s sales. 

”Kingfisher has posted a somewhat flat set of results,” said Adam Vettese, market analyst at investment platform eToro.

“Whilst the top line numbers are slightly off, it does represent an improvement on their update earlier in the year which did flag some cause for concern that conditions were becoming quite tough.

“Tighter household budgets and higher interest rates have meant consumers have tended to repair and renovate as opposed to moving to a shiny new house. This in turn however has seen ‘big-ticket’ sales drag on the numbers for the same reason. Whilst the company seems to have stopped the rot and the market is now better than initially feared, it’s safe to say the B&Q and Screwfix parent company is no longer enjoying the pandemic DIY boom of a few years ago.”

However, investors are looking past revenue figures to the profit upgrade for the full year. Despite the group posting falling revenues for the recent six-month period, Kingfisher increased their profit guidance for the full year.

“The company is now expecting adjusted pretax profit to come in between £510 and £550 million, instead of in a range of £490 to £550 million. Investors had already expected a difficult reading for the first half, so the fall in profits by 0.5% didn’t knock sentiment further,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

The higher profit guidance is the result of the action on costs in recent periods starting to filter down to the bottom line. Its not lost on investors that if the action on costs is accompanied by growth of the top line, Kingfisher are set for stronger profit going into the future.

Kingfisher shares were over 6% higher at the time of writing.

Can education give Vietnam a semiconductor advantage? 

As Vietnam races to embrace its lofty semiconductor ambitions, human resources and education have emerged as two of the key pillars of its strategy. 

The country has long performed well when it comes to education, especially STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) subjects. For example, the most recent Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) rankings placed Vietnam behind only Singapore among Southeast Asian countries. 

Overall, Vietnam ranked 34th out of 81 countries on the list, a particularly strong performance given its stage of economic development. 

Training students for the semiconductor industry, however, is an even bigger challenge – one the government has acknowledged by aiming to spend US$1 billion on 50,000 semiconductor engineers by 2030. Officials estimate that by that year, Vietnam’s chip industry will need 35,000 engineers and 13,500 chip designers.  

That figure will be extremely difficult to attain, but progress is being made. 

The National Innovation Center (NIC), which is taking the lead on this effort, has partnered with a number of high-profile international corporations and universities to create training programs.  

Thus far, the NIC has partnered with Qorvo, Cadence, Synopsys, ARM, and Marvell Technology. Other partners include Google, Samsung, the University of Arizona, and USAID. 

In early August, about 70 students completed Vietnam’s first in-depth chip design training course. This was organized by the NIC, FPT Corporation, Cadence, and Tresemi.  

The United States also recently launched the ITSI-CHIPS Workforce Accelerator Program in partnership with multiple government ministries and Arizona State University. Vietnam will receive US$4 million under the program and is one of eight countries globally taking part. 

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, meanwhile, established a national steering committee to promote the development of the semiconductor industry, reiterating high-level support for the sector. This committee will help officials “direct and resolve important issues related to promoting the development of the semiconductor industry” in Vietnam.  

As discussed in our previous coverage of the chip sector, FPT is one of the leading domestic stakeholders in this industry. They are uniquely situated across both the tech education and manufacturing sectors, meaning they will play a key role in improving Vietnam’s human resources. 

In Vietnam Holding’s recent ‘Vietnam the Global Digital Race’ webinar, Nguyen Khai Hoan, Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer at FPT Software – a subsidiary of FPT, explained some of the corporation’s initiatives in the AI and semiconductor spaces. 

“Vietnam is becoming a very attractive destination for semiconductor companies, and by the end of 2024, the industry is forecast to pass US$6 billion in value, making it an important production center,” he said. 

“More than 50 semiconductor companies have a presence here, and FPT is working closely with the Vietnamese government on the 50,000 engineers target,” Hoan added. “We are fully integrating Vietnam into the global semiconductor system, and two years ago we founded FPT Semiconductor, an internal startup to become the first Vietnamese company to manufacture commercial chips.” 

“In parallel, FPT aims to develop a high-quality workforce for the industry, and we work with FPT University to design curriculum and launch a semiconductor circuit faculty providing comprehensive training to undergrad and postgrad students to support the government’s plan,” he said. 

All FPT employees, meanwhile, must now take mandatory AI training to better prepare the business for future innovations. “We position ourselves as an AI-defined corporation, supporting Vietnam’s aspiration of becoming an AI nation. In the last 10 years we have spent our efforts in AI research and development, and today we have more than 1,000 AI experts and engineers. AI will be embedded in our services and solutions, playing a crucial role in enabling new levels of performance for our clients,” he stated. 

While Vietnam has its work cut out given the highly competitive nature of the global chip industry, the opportunity is there. Nikkei Asia recently reported on the growing presence of semiconductor companies from the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea among others – drawn in part by Vietnam’s relatively low-cost, talented labor pool. 

All of the right chips (pun intended) are in place – it’s up to Vietnam to make the right bet.  

Writing credit Michael Tatarski