Tesco profit upgrade supports further gains for shares

Tesco shares could have further to run after the supermarket reported rising sales and increased its profit guidance for the year.

After a strong run for the stock so far in 2025, today’s update had the potential to spark a wave of profit-taking.

However, Tesco marginally beat profit estimates as sales rose 5.1% driving a 1.6% increase in operating profit.

The firm said it now expects FY 25/26 group adjusted operating profit to be between £2.9bn and £3.1bn, compared to the previous guidance of between £2.7bn and £3.0bn. This appears to be positive enough for investors and shares were 2.2% higher.

“Tesco’s stores and vans have delivered a little extra in the first half. Underlying operating profit of £1.7 billion came in a shade ahead of market forecasts, but intensified competition and cost pressures meant that growth in profits lagged sales by some margin,” explained Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Still, management were confident enough to raise the mid-point of full-year profit guidance by 5% to £3.0 billion. It’s not a spectacular change, but every little helps.”

Tesco’s all important market share increased to 28.4% demonstarting to the market that measures undertaken to fight off the discounters are paying off.

“Market share continues to expand and patient shareholders have been rewarded with a boost to the dividend,” said Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at investment and trading platform IG.

“In the short-term the steady gains in the share price might be due a breather, but today’s update confirms the UK’s dominant supermarket remains in good health.”

Trading. at around 15x earnings, Tesco shares still don’t look expensive, even after a 19% year-to-date rally.

Aberdeen’s Active ETFs provide investors with exposure to key themes of ‘nearshoring’ and ‘tech wars’

Aberdeen Investments has launched two actively managed ETFs targeting investment themes that the asset managers identify as reshaping the global economy: trade tensions, intensifying “tech wars,” and surging demand for new materials.

The abrdn Future Supply Chains UCITS ETF and abrdn Future Raw Materials UCITS ETF are designed to provide investors with exposure to Aberdeen’s highest conviction investment ideas in these areas through the low-cost, liquid structure of Active ETFs.

Active ETFs are becoming increasingly popular in the UK, with a raft of asset managers launching new products into the market after the storming success of the structure in the US.

Aberdeen has adopted a strategy of selecting clearly defined investment themes, as opposed to broad geographical mandates. This approach has enjoyed early success with one of the funds gaining by a third in just a few months.

Supply chain transformation

The abrdn Future Supply Chains UCITS ETF focuses on companies positioned to benefit from the significant restructuring of global supply networks. The ETF is 6% higher since its launch in July.

Aberdeen identifies several key drivers behind this transformation:

Government policies have become increasingly focused on domestic production, with many nations implementing incentives and subsidies to encourage local manufacturing. This shift toward more insular economic policy represents a departure from decades of globalisation.

Companies are actively reducing their dependence on foreign suppliers as tariffs and fiscal policy changes take effect. The growing trends of reshoring—bringing production back to home countries—and nearshoring—moving production closer to end markets—are creating structural shifts across industries.

“Global supply chains are becoming more complex. With national security and trade becoming more closely aligned, geopolitics is changing the nature of trade flows,” said Lizzy Galbraith, Senior Political Economist at Aberdeen Investments.

“Some of the countries most exposed to tariffs will have the most to gain from reshoring – we believe that many of the economies at greatest risk of trade-related uncertainty are likely to be the long-run winners. Countries like Vietnam and Mexico for example have the greatest exposure to punitive action from Washington, and yet, Mexico’s integration with US supply chains and a strong manufacturing base in APAC countries including Vietnam make them likely winners of reshoring, given the ongoing structural geopolitical tensions with China.”

Raw materials for a new economy

The abrdn Future Raw Materials UCITS ETF targets companies involved in supplying the essential materials needed to build what Aberdeen describes as “a greener, smarter world.”

The fund, which has had a storming start to life, gaining 33% since launch, is positioned to capitalise on increasing demand for raw materials critical to renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, advanced technology manufacturing, and other elements of the emerging low-carbon economy.

Managers have selected a range of metals they see as critical to the green transition. These include Copper, Nickel, Lithium, and Aluminium. In addition to these metals, the ETF currently focuses on three rare earths: Neodymium, Lanthanum, and Yttrium.

Speaking at a launch event at the London Stock Exchange, managers explained that the metals and materials the fund focuses on are constantly under review, and they are prepared to adjust the portfolio to capture emerging opportunities.

“The fundamentals are pointing towards the start of a new supercycle in raw materials. Technological advancements in batteries, EVs and semiconductors, combined with global policy support, increasing grid demand and rising renewable energy usage, are strong tailwinds underpinning long-term structural demand for certain raw materials,” said David Clancy, Research Director for Quantitative Index Solutions at Aberdeen.

“We see five strategic minerals in particular as key to supporting the green transition and technology revolution – copper, lithium, nickel, aluminium and rare earth elements. Demand for these materials looks set to increase significantly over the coming decades.”

Long-term investment thesis

Aberdeen emphasises that the themes they have selected for their Active ETFs aren’t temporary market dislocations, but rather sustained structural changes with “genuine duration” that will materially impact global equity markets over the long term.

“As with all major economic shifts, there will be winners and losers,” Abderdeen noted, suggesting that active management will be crucial in identifying which companies are best positioned to benefit from these transformations.

The launch of these ETFs reflects Aberdeen’s view that the intersection of geopolitical tensions, technological competition, and sustainability imperatives is creating compelling investment opportunities for those able to identify the companies most advantaged by these evolving trends.

Both funds are now listed on the London Stock Exchange, providing investors with access to Aberdeen’s thematic investment expertise in an exchange-traded format.

FTSE 100 surges to record high as pharma stocks shine

The FTSE 100 surged to fresh intraday record highs on Wednesday as pharmaceutical stocks rallied on plans for a US direct-to-consumer sales platform

London’s leading index was trading at 9,420 after reaching a high of 9,424. A close above 9,350 would be a fresh closing record high.

The FTSE 100’s heavy weighting towards pharmaceuticals meant the index shrugged off concerns about the US government shutdown as US and European stocks dipped.

“The US government shutdown has left investors wondering what might happen next, with a minor pullback on European equity markets and weaker futures prices for Wall Street,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The FTSE 100 bucked the negative trend, rising 0.4% thanks to a surge in pharmaceutical stocks.

“AstraZeneca, Hikma and GSK rallied after Donald Trump announced plans to launch a government-run website for consumers to buy drugs directly from manufacturers. It looks like investors are regaining confidence in the pharma sector following recent uncertainty around pricing and tariffs. More clarity on both points is helping to regain investors’ interest.”

AstraZeneca, the FTSE 100’s largest company by market cap, rose over 5% adding a significant number of points to the index. Hikma rose 4%.

JD Sports was also among the risers, with a 3.7% increase.

Housebuilders were fairly flat despite the latest data from Nationwide showing house prices rose at an annual pace of 2.2% in the year to September.

“A sustained upward trend in house prices reflects a resilient and increasingly competitive housing market,” said Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark.

“This increase can be attributed to several key factors, including limited housing supply, strong buyer demand, and favourable lending conditions that continue to support purchasing activity despite broader economic uncertainties.”

Taylor Wimpey was up 0.4% after releasing a trading statement pointing to mild improvements in sales rates for the year to date. They did, however, highlight ‘softer market conditions’ in their second quarter.

Babcock was the top FTSE 100 faller, losing 2.3%.

AIM movers: UK Oil and Gas collaboration with National Gas Transmission and Litigation Capital Management loss

3

UK Oil and Gas (LON: UKOG) shares returned from suspension 257.8% higher at 0.0365p. A subsidiary has executed a memorandum of understanding with National Gas Transmission, which is developing a 100% hydrogen pipeline system. The plan is to connect the company’s planned onshore salt cavern hydrogen storage facilities in Yorkshire and Dorset.

Tertiary Minerals (LON: TYM) says drilling results at Target A1 at the Mushima North project in Zambia have revealed the highest-grade silver and copper intersection. It also extends mineralisation 100 metres to the north. The mineralisation is approximately 450 metres by 400 metres. The share price jumped 36.9% to 0.0575p.

Pulsar Helium Inc (LON: PLSR) has made a helium-3 discovery at the Topaz project in Minnesota. There are sustained concentrations of up to 14.5 parts per billion in produced gas. This is one of the highest naturally occurring accumulation of helium-3 ever reported. Helium-3 is one of the rarest isotopes on Earth. It can generate $2,500/litre in some markets. Uses include future fusion energy reactors, quantum computing and advanced cryogenics. The share price increased 23.4% to 29p.

Building services provider Northern Bear (LON: NTBR) says that current trading is ahead of expectations. A strong first half means that full year underlying operating profit will be in line with last year. A non-recurring pre-tax profit of £1m will help to reduce debt. The share price rose 10.5% to 105p.

FALLERS

Litigation finance provider Litigation Capital Management (LON: LIT) made an underlying loss of A$100.5m, compared with a pre-tax profit of A$17.2m the previous year. Six cases were lost, and three more losses are being appealed. Costs have been reduced. The company is focusing on case management rather than seeking new cases. Net debt was A$69m at the end of June 2025. There is a facility of A$114m. The share price slumped 41.2% to 15.575p.

Shares in cyber security business Smarttech247 (LON: S247) have fallen a further 14.3% to 2.7p. Following its proposal that it should leave AIM because it believes that will bring more flexibility in strategy.

Oil and gas producer and explorer Arrow Exploration (LON: AXL) has abandoned the Mateguafa Oeste exploration well MO-1 because there were only traces of oil. The drilling rig is moving north east to the Mateguafa Attic prospect. There should be results announced in November. There are three other development wells planned if this is successful. This is on the Tapir licence in Colombia, where Arrow Exploration holds 50%. The share price slipped 13% to 11.75p.

Built Cybernetics (LON: BUC) says this year’s revenues ae expected to better than expected, despite weaker trading at the smart buildings. There has been stronger trading at the architecture division. There will still be a small loss in the second half. There are plans to sell Anders + Kern. The company has raised £1.115m via a convertible loan note issue. The share price declined 8.89% to 2.05p.

New product launches and an AI platform approach to growth with GenIP

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to welcome Melissa Cruz, CEO of GenIP, to discuss recent results and plans for new product launches.

GenIP CEO Melissa Cruz joins us to discuss the company’s milestone first half-year as a publicly listed entity. Fresh off releasing their inaugural half-year financial results, Cruz offers a candid assessment of how the business has performed since going public and the progress the company has made.

The conversation delves into both the numbers and the operational story behind them, exploring what’s working well and where the company is focusing its energy. Cruz also unveils GenIP’s updated commercial strategy, which includes several new product launches set to reshape the company’s offerings.

A particularly interesting segment focuses on GenIP’s plan to shift its client composition, targeting corporate clients to represent up to 45% of the mix. Cruz explains the benefits of increasing the number of corporate clients and what it means for the company’s long-term positioning.

The episode concludes with Cruz sharing the three developments that most excite her about the year ahead, offering listeners a glimpse into the CEO’s strategic priorities.

Ramsdens Holdings: Pre-Close Trading Update due with days, shares at 375p – up 53% this year

Within days I am expecting the £122m-capitalised Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) to be announcing its Pre-Close Trading Update for its Trading Year to end-September. 
And with the way that the price of gold has risen so dramatically, and so too with silver, it leads me to expect some excellent business indications for that year and for the year just starting. 
The group’s shares have performed superbly this year, up over 53% since I featured the business on 14th January, then trading at 245p – they are now 375p.
And I reckon that there is even more to come yet! 
The Business 
W...

UK average house price growth increases to 2.2% – Nationwide

The UK average house price has grown 2.2% on an annual basis as activity picks up despite broader concerns about the economy, according to the latest data from Nationwide.

The 2.2% annual growth rate in September represented an acceleration from the 2.1% recorded in August.

“The annual pace of UK house price growth was little changed in September at 2.2%, marginally stronger than the 2.1% recorded in August. Prices increased by 0.5% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects,” explained Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist.

“The broad stability in the annual rate of house price growth over the past three months mirrors that of activity. The number of mortgages approved for house purchase have been hovering at around 65,000 cases per month, close to the pre-pandemic average (despite the higher interest rate environment).

“Despite ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.”

Industry experts pointed to the Bank of England’s interest rate cut and ongoing undersupply of new homes as other factors that would provide support for the housing market in the coming months.

“Today’s data underscores the resilience and appeal of the UK property sector. Despite elevated inflation and stubborn borrowing costs, we welcomed the BoE’s recent rate cut as a hopeful first step in a much-needed easing cycle,” said Tom Brown, Managing Director, Real Estate.

“There’s clearly a significant and notable shortage of housing inventory across various price brackets and locations.”

Northern Ireland continued to be the powerhouse for house price growth, with the region storming ahead by 9.6% on a quarterly basis. London house prices grew at a meagre 0.6% over the same period.

Greggs shares jump as guidance maintained despite slowing growth

Greggs shares jumped on Wednesday as the sausage roll maker reassured investors they were on track to meet full-year guidance despite the rate of third-quarter growth slowing.

 The firm’s total sales increased by 6.1% for the 13 weeks to September 27, 2025, and by 6.7% year-to-date. This compares to 7% growth in the group’s first half period.

Gregg’s slowing growth was highlighted in a profit warning in July, which led to a sharp sell-off in Greggs’ shares. Investors are breathing a sigh of relief that the company hasn’t had to lower guidance again, and shares jumped 5% on Wednesday.

“Even sausage rolls are sweating as Greggs feels the heat. Hot weather and a softer consumer backdrop meant third-quarter growth slowed, raising question marks around expectations for the full year,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown

“Management isn’t waving the white flag just yet, with the full-year outlook unchanged. But this quarter was about weathering the bumps rather than breaking records – a far cry from the Greggs of 2024.

“Longer term, the ingredients for growth are still in the mix. Expanding into supermarkets and online through Bake at Home, plus major supply chain upgrades, should set the stage for the next leg from 2026. Cost pressures are easing slightly, which helps, but today’s update is a reminder that even a category leader isn’t immune to short-term headwinds. For investors, the steady ship has been rocked this year, and the outlook has shifted to a slow rise rather than a rapid bake – but there is still an attractive recipe lurking beneath the surface.”

Although shares are much cheaper than they have been in recent years, some analysts offer the view that Greggs’ issues are the syptom of a wider shift in consumer behaviour that could persist in the near term.

“Greggs has recently issued a profit warning that reflects more than just the effects of unseasonably warm weather,” explained Alex Smith, VP, Global Lead at Third Bridge.

“Our experts say the bigger concern is the drop in footfall across high street locations, a structural shift that is weighing heavily on traditional outlets which once depended on commuter traffic and office workers.

“Our experts estimate the broader quick service restaurant and full-service dining sector will face a demand contraction of around 2 to 3 percent in the second half of 2025.”

AIM movers: SEEEN grows revenues and Billington hit by delays

3

Clinical diagnostics for organ transplants developer VericiDx (LON: VRCI) reported a rise in interim loss from $1.3m to $3.1m after a 43% decline in revenues to $1.9m. The company does have two commercial products and full year revenues are expected to rise to $4.14m. The share price rebounded 28% to 0.8p.

Video marketing platform operator SEEEN (LON: SEEN) increased first half revenues by 87% to $2.1m and full year revenues are expected to be more than £5m, helped by a significant deal signed earlier in the year. The full year loss should be reduced by three-quarters to £400,000 and the company could breakeven next year. Net cash was $1.2m at the end of June 2025. The share price increased 11.1% to 5p.

Gunsynd (LON: GUN) says assay results from the Bear Twit project have been sent to the lab and results should be received in October. Exploration continues at the Barb gold project. The share price improved 10% to 0.165p.

Carpet tiles manufacturer Airea (LON: AIEA) managed to increase first half revenues, while progressing the move to a new facility. Revenues improved from £9.23m to £9.82m, which is about as much as can be achieved in the current factory. The main growth was in the UK and Ireland, despite the weak market. There was a £44,000 loss after costs of setting up in Dubai and storage ahead of the move. Additional capital investment means that the move will be at the start of 2026. Even after the capital expenditure, net cash was £1.14m at the end of June 2025, although that excludes a similar amount of supply chain finance. An investment property valued at £4.1m may be sold. The share price rose 8.7% to 25p.

FALLERS

Difficult market conditions hampered regenerative medicine company Tissue Regenix (LON: TRX) and interim revenues were 6% down at $13.8m. That hit gross margin and the loss increased to $957,000. There were delays to regulatory approvals and falls in orders. Net debt is $9.3m with $5.6m of available bank facilities. The share price slumped 40.5% to 12.5p.

Steel structures supplier Billington (LON: BILN) has been hit by delays just like many other companies involved in the construction sector. It has won business to help cover for the delays, but margins are not as high. Interim revenues fell from £57.9m to £41.8m, while pre-tax profit slipped from £4.64m to £1.67m. Cavendish has halved its full year pe-tax profit forecast to £3.5m. The order book covers around 50% of forecast 2026 revenues and pre-tax profit could rebound to £8.3m. The share price declined 13.9% to 280p, which is less than seven times prospective 2026 earnings.

Health assessment technology developer GENinCode (LON: GENI) reported interims in line with its recent trading statement. Revenues rose 15% to £1.6m and the loss was similar to the previous year. Cash was £2.44m at the end of June 2024. Cavendish has cut its forecast 2025 revenues from £4.3m to £3.3m, while the loss is expected to be £4.7m. The share price fell back 14.3% to 3.6p, but it has doubled in the past fortnight.

Wishbone Gold (LON: WSBN) is raising £4m at 1.3p/share. This will fund further exploration at the Red Setter Gold Dome in Australia. The previous placing was at 0.13p/share. Interim results show a cash outflow of £1.3m, leaving cash of £826,000 at the end of June 2025. The share price slipped 13.3% to 1.265p.

FTSE 100 flat as US government shutdown looms

The FTSE 100 recovered early losses on Tuesday as investors became increasingly concerned about a possible US government shutdown that could upset the trajectory for interest rate cuts.

London’s leading index was down as much as 33 points before recovering to trade down by less than 10 points.

“The FTSE 100 was lower on Tuesday as investors started to fret about the prospect of a government shutdown in Washington,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“Relations between the Democrats and Republicans are frostier than an Alaska morning, so markets are not confident on the prospects of agreeing a deal before midnight tonight.

“One of the biggest short-term concerns for markets is the impact this would have on the release of government data – particularly the jobs number due on Friday – without which the Federal Reserve might not feel as confident about cutting interest rates.”

A US government shutdown has a familiar playbook. Stocks dip as a possible shutdown looms and rebound on a resolution. The variables are whether the government actually shuts down, how much of it shuts down and how long the shutdown lasts.

The longest government shutdown was in 2018, lasting 35 days. The S&P 500 sold off sharply going into the shutdown and rebounded soon after.

There’s nowhere near the volatility of 2018 in markets this time round.

FTSE 100 constituents were finely balanced between gainers and losers on Tuesday. There was no clear sector direction, with peers trading in opposite directions.

Rio Tinto gained 0.2% while Antofagasta lost 1%. BAE Systems gave 0.9% as Babcock rose 0.6%. AstraZeneca fell 0.8% while GSK added 0.8%.

This directionless trade represents a wait-and-see approach from investors as Republicans and Democrats thrash out a deal.

BT was the FTSE 100’s top faller, losing 2.9%. Rentokil Initial rose to the top of the leaderboard after announcing the sale of its French workwear business.