First Class Metals shares tumble after discounted placing beneath 3p

First Class Metals shares fell on Friday after completing a discounted placing to fund working capital and exploration activities.

Earlier this year, we wrote that, despite the attractiveness of First Class Metal’s assets, they were in danger of having to raise funds again in 2024, and the placing level could well be beneath 3p. That article can be read here.

First Class Metals has now completed two placings beneath 3p in just two weeks, and the amounts are far less than the placings in 2023, which raised £600,000 and £1,000,000.

Today’s placing raised gross proceeds of £256,500 at 2.7p, a 16% discount to yesterday’s closing price. The prior placing 17 July raised £85,000 at 2.8p.

The funds will be allocated to the ongoing ‘potentially significant impact exploration programme’ at the Hemlo gold project’s Dead Otter Trend North. Helmo is First Class Metal’s flagship project.

“In light of the recent announcements regarding the high priority status of the Dead Otter Trend, it was considered wise to take advantage of the crews and equipment already mobilised at the site to increase both the number and scope of stripping sites,” said James Knowles, FCM’s Executive Chairman.

“We believe that the Dead Otter project holds transformative potential for FCM’s future, and completing this capital raise promptly will allow significant additional work this summer, thus enhancing our understanding of the geology and the target’s true potential.”

With FCM shares now down 52% year-to-date, shareholders will certainly hope the recent fundraises can facilitate material progress over the summer.

ITM Power announces improved EBITDA guidance ahead of results

ITM Power PLC has announced a significant improvement in its financial outlook for the fiscal year ending 30 April 2024. The green hydrogen technology firm, based in Sheffield, has revised its EBITDA loss forecast, painting a much rosier picture than previously anticipated.

Previously, the company had projected an EBITDA loss between £39.0m and £44.0m, as stated in their 6 June trading update. This figure already marked an improvement from earlier estimates. However, today’s announcement signals further material improvement, with ITM Power now expecting losses to narrow to between £30.0m and £32.0m.

The driving force behind the dramatic improvement is the resolution of disputes tied to legacy projects. With these matters now settled, ITM Power has been able to release a provision previously set aside, significantly bolstering its EBITDA financial position.

As the audit process nears completion, investors will be gearing up for 15 August, when the preliminary results will be released.

ITM has recently signed deals with industry heavyweights such as Shell and shareholders will be looking forward to further insight into progress in the rollout of ITM’s electrolyser stacks.

FTSE 100 gains as Bank of England cuts interest rates to 5%

The FTSE 100 gained on before falling back Thursday after the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since the pandemic when it took rates to record lows to support a ravaged economy.

Since then, the BoE has increased interest rates from 0.1% to 5.25%, which has had broad-reaching effects on businesses, households, and the stock market. Today’s cut to 5% doesn’t take interest rates anywhere near where they have been over the past decade, but the move will have a significant impact on confidence.

“Whilst nominal in absolute terms it is a meaningful milestone in the direction of travel for monetary policy should add to the already building momentum in UK business and consumer confidence,” said Indriatti van Hien, Fund Manager at Henderson Small Companies Investment Trust.

Consensus for the decision to cut rates or not had been on a knife edge leading up to today’s historic announcement, which represents the Bank’s victory in controlling inflation and beckons an easing of pressures on households.

“The central bank has decided to fire the starting pistol on rate cuts in a move that will invigorate investors and mortgage holders alike,” said Rachel Winter, Partner at Killik & Co.

“The Bank of England was clearly satisfied with the recent fall in CPI to the 2% target level, and its choice demonstrates a deviation from the Federal Reserve across the Atlantic, which has yet to cross the finish line in its battle with inflation.”

The FTSE 100 gained in the initial reaction to the announcement, but the rally was sold into as the session progressed.

Market reaction

The FTSE 100 was supported by a string of upbeat earnings from companies including, Next, Barclays, and Shell on Thursday. Although the announcement was well received, with a sharp uptick of 30 or so points for the FTSE 100, the move was far from europhic.

The interest rate-sensitive housebuilding sector spiked higher but was quickly sold into, with Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon gaining just 0.5% at the time of writing.

Banks have been reducing mortgage rates in preparation for the rate cut, and today’s news is unlikely to offer any additional boost to the sector in the short term. Whether the Bank of England signals more cuts in the coming months will have a greater effect. Interest rate futures traders seem to think they will cut rates again, judging by current pricing.

Elsewhere, Next was storming ahead after yet another beat of expectations – something investors have become accustomed to. That said, another quarter of producing sales growth amid tough economic conditions was not lost on the market, and shares were over 8% higher at the time of writing.

Shell was 1% higher after it was confirmed that it was still a cash-generating machine, as free cash flow increased despite lower earnings.

The standout gainer was Rolls Royce, adding 10%. Investors cheered the reintroduction of shareholder distributions to commence later this year as the jet engine maker’s operating profit soared. The company embarked on a streamlining strategy that is now rewarding investors.

AIM movers: Keras Resources commences PhoSul production and Futura Medical announces Haleon launch timing for Eroxon

2

Keras Resources (LON: KRS) has started production of PhoSul granules at its joint venture processing facility in Utah. PhoSul helps to reduce phosphorous run-off and water contamination. Between 8,000 and 10,000 tons could be produced this year. The share price jumped 60.7% to 4.5p.

Premier African Minerals (LON: PREM) says the supplier of the float plant for the Zulu lithium and tantalum project confirms that it can produced SC6. It has already done better than that, but changes are being made to ensure this continues. All-in projected cost is less than $750/ton of SC6 when output reaches 4,000 tons/month. The share price is 12.1% higher at 0.065p.

Trinidad-focused Touchstone Exploration (LON: TXP) shares rose 11.2% to 34.75p after it said it achieved net sales of 5,432 barrels of oil equivalent/day in the second quarter of 2024. Current average production was 5,711 boe/day with production improving at Cascadura.

Haleon has announced that it will launch the Futura Medical (LON: FUM) erectile dysfunction topical gel treatment Eroxon in the US before the end of 2024. This will trigger the US launch milestone. The US is a bigger potential market than all the other sales regions combined. So far, Eroxon has been launched in Belgium and the UK with more to follow. The share price increased 6.65% to 36.475p.

Braveheart Research (LON: BRH) investee company Gyrometric has been awarded £300,000 to develop a monitoring system for large journal bearings for wind turbines. Gyrometric has developed technology to monitor rotating shafts and detecting minute irregularities in motion. Braveheart Investment increased its stake in Gyrometric from 15% to 21.4%. The share price improved 5% to 5.25p.

Quadrise (LON: QED) says that Valkor has gained approval to drill more than 100 production wells as part of the plan to commercialise heavy sweet oil from oil sands in Utah. This will provide suitable base feedstock for future production of Quadrise reduced emission products. Once Valkor raises $15m in project finance it will pay $1m to Quadrise. The share price rose 2.88% to 1.6975p.

FALLERS

Jaywing (LON: JWNG) has lost some of yesterday’s gains after saying it did not know of any reason why the share price had risen. It is 30% lower at 2.1p.

Orosur Mining Inc (LON: OMI) continues to work on the deal to reacquire 100% ownership of the Anza gold project in Colombia. The details have been more complex than expected and this has caused delays. The share price dipped 9.09% to 3.5p.

Synergia Energy (LON: SYN) has closed the farm out deal with Selan Exploration Technology, for the transfer of a 50% interest in the Cambay PSC in India. Synergia Energy has received a $2.5m upfront payment. Synergia Energy will be carried on the $20m, 18-month work programme. This includes three workovers and three new wells. The share price is down 5.88% to 0.12p.

Ex-dividends

CML Microsystems (LON: CML) is paying a final dividend of 6p/share and the share price declined 2.5p to 307.5p.

Greencoat Renewables (LON: GRP) is paying a dividend of 1.69 cents/share and the share price fell 1.2 cents to 90.9 cents.

James Latham (LON: LTHM) is paying a final dividend of 26p/share and the share price slipped 70p to 1445p.

Nichols (LON: NICL) is paying a special and interim dividend of 69.7p/share and the share price is 62.5p lower at 1162.5p.

Indonesia’s hidden investment attractions 

Gabriel Sacks, Co-Manager, abrdn Asia Focus plc 

Trawl the internet for Indonesia’s most famous tourist attractions and the chances are you will soon be linked to a Komodo dragon. At least for faint-hearted visitors, whether such a creature truly qualifies as an “attraction” could be a moot point. 

Komodo dragons are the largest lizards on Earth. Males can grow to nearly 10 feet in length. They have 60 serrated teeth, armoured scales and a forked tongue. Capable of devouring as much as 80% of their body weight in a single meal, they have been known to dig up and feast on human corpses. 

Fortunately, the attractions of Indonesia for investors are rather more obvious. Barely a decade after being labelled “fragile”, the country is rapidly establishing itself as one of the Asia-Pacific region’s economic powerhouses. 

Many of the key elements of this transformation are discernible from afar. They include an abundance of natural resources, a young and sizeable population, a burgeoning middle class and relative political stability. 

Yet the real scale of Indonesia’s long-term potential can in many ways be appreciated only at first hand. As those of us who have spent considerable time “on the ground” know, there are even more opportunities than might first appear – particularly among smaller companies. 

Positioned for growth 

It is a little over a decade since Indonesia was lumped with India, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa to create the so-called Fragile Five. Coined by a Morgan Stanley analyst, the term was used to describe a group of emerging markets (EMs) thought to be at serious risk from their heavy reliance on foreign investment. 

Each of these economies was running a hefty current account deficit, financed by inflows of overseas capital. Each was highly susceptible to the whims of international investors and especially vulnerable to rate hikes and the reverse of quantitative easing in the US. Imminent elections in four of the Fragile Five introduced even more uncertainty. 

In Indonesia’s case, however, going to the polls proved a positive turning point. Businessman Joko Widodo – popularly known as Jokowi – became president in 2014 and duly embarked on a series of reforms that have since condemned the “fragile” tag to history. 

Employment, incomes and confidence have all been raised in a nation whose demographics are notably conducive to long-term growth. Standing at 280 million, the population is among the biggest and youngest in the world. 

The commodities boom that followed the COVID-19 pandemic has also benefited  

Indonesia, which is now a major exporter of the metal ores vital to the global transition to lower-carbon fuels. In tandem, Jokowi’s government has focused on far-reaching objectives such as infrastructure development, supply chains and value-added manufacturing. 

Smaller companies: the hidden gems 

All this has substantially boosted Indonesia’s profile in investment circles. As with many EMs, though, the fact that opportunities exist across the market-capitalisation spectrum remains comparatively unacknowledged. 

This is because smaller companies are routinely under-researched. The situation persists even though such businesses are often better equipped than their larger counterparts in terms of initiating or responding to new trends. 

Our own engagements in Indonesia have shown many of the small-cap and mid-cap firms that repeatedly fly under investors’ collective radar are defined by a capacity for innovation and expansion. In turn, this can translate into outperformance over the long term. 

Take AKR Corporindo. Founded as a chemical-trading company in 1977, it has become a leading distributor of chemicals, fuels and lubricants, as well as a provider of logistics and transport services in a country where logistics accounted for a colossal 23.5% of GDP – the highest in Asia – in 2023. It has an enviable infrastructure set-up, a young and growing workforce, sound management, competitive advantage in the geographic spread of its facilities, a healthy dividend and a market capitalisation of around $2 billion. We see it as a good proxy for the growth of Indonesia in general. 

Medikaloka Hermina, one of Indonesia’s biggest hospital chains, is another interesting example. Established in 1999 and headquartered in Jakarta, it operates 47 hospitals in Java, Kalimantan, Sumatra and Sulawesi. It is uniquely positioned to take advantage of low healthcare penetration and the rollout of universal health coverage in Indonesia under the Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) scheme. In spite of being an important player in the healthcare sector of one of the world’s most populous markets, it is practically unknown to foreign investors – even though one of Indonesia’s top conglomerates has taken a stake in the business. Its market capitalisation is approximately $1.25 billion. 

Seeing what others do not 

The point here is that a genuine on-the-ground presence can go a long way towards unearthing opportunities of this kind. It can help an investment team identify smaller yet highly promising companies that would otherwise be overlooked. 

The same applies throughout much of the Asia-Pacific region and to EMs more broadly. We feel there is invariably a lot to be said for getting to know the places, people and businesses in which we invest. 

It is widely recognised, of course, that these are some of the world’s fastest-growing markets. Yet investors need to understand the extent to which hidden gems – in the form of small-caps and mid-caps – are the engines of growth. 

Ultimately, the challenge is to see what others do not – which brings us back to Komodo dragons. Is there anything remotely appealing lurking beneath their terrifying appearance and unsettling behaviour? 

Indonesians undoubtedly believe so. Not least on the islands where they live, the dragons are revered as symbols of power and strength. Perhaps it is time for investors to view some of the country’s smaller companies in a similar light.  

Company/Companies selected for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the investment management style described herein and not as an investment recommendation or indication of future performance. 

Important information 

Risk factors you should consider prior to investing: 

  • The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than the amount invested. 
  • Past performance is not a guide to future results. 
  • Investment in the Company may not be appropriate for investors who plan to withdraw their money within 5 years. 
  • The Company may borrow to finance further investment (gearing). The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV) meaning that any movement in the value of the company’s assets will result in a magnified movement in the NAV. 
  • The Company may accumulate investment positions which represent more than normal trading volumes which may make it difficult to realise investments and may lead to volatility in the market price of the Company’s shares. 
  • The Company may charge expenses to capital which may erode the capital value of the investment. 
  • The Company invests in smaller companies which are likely to carry a higher degree of risk than larger companies. 
  • Movements in exchange rates will impact on both the level of income received and the capital value of your investment. 
  • There is no guarantee that the market price of the Company’s shares will fully reflect their underlying Net Asset Value. 
  • As with all stock exchange investments the value of the Company’s shares purchased will immediately fall by the difference between the buying and selling prices, the bid-offer spread. If trading volumes fall, the bid-offer spread can widen. 
  • The Company invests in emerging markets which tend to be more volatile than mature markets and the value of your investment could move sharply up or down. 
  • Specialist funds which invest in small markets or sectors of industry are likely to be more volatile than more diversified trusts. 
  • Yields are estimated figures and may fluctuate, there are no guarantees that future dividends will match or exceed historic dividends and certain investors may be subject to further tax on dividends. 

Other important information: 

Issued by abrdn Fund Managers Limited, registered in England and Wales (740118) at 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4AG. The company is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. 

Find out more at http://www.asia-focus.co.uk/en-gb or by registering for updates. You can also follow us on X and LinkedIn

Barclays follows trend of strong banking earnings, shares rise

It’s been a solid earnings season so far for FTSE 100 banking earnings, and Barclays has done nothing to break the mould with stronger than expected earnings pleasing investors on Thursday.

Barclays enjoyed improving net interest margins in the second quarter across most business units in the second quarter culminating in a group net interest margin (NIM) of 4.2% compared to 4.12% in the first quarter.

Stronger NIMs will be welcome news for investors in the face of money markets positioning for interest rate cuts and the pressure of increased competition.

“Banks are booming, and Barclays has joined the party,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Second quarter results pretty much beat across all lines. As we’ve seen from peers, Barclays continues to call out the strong UK borrower with low missed credit card payments, good mortgage quality, and an improved economic outlook all helping to keep those pesky impairment charges down. Barclays also has a huge US card business, and impairments were also better than expected, but our friends across the pond are under a little more pressure and write-offs have been ticking higher.”

A key differentiator for Barclays is its investment banking arm, which can provide a welcome boost to underlying income as capital markets activity picks up.

Although global capital markets are still well below their peak, deal flow has increased, helping Barclays Investment Banking income rise 10% in the second quarter.

The Investment Banking unit is by far Barclays’ largest single unit in terms of revenue and was the key driver in group revenue increasing in the second quarter.

“Barclays Investment Banking revenue beat is positive for mid-term targets, our specialists argue that the 50% IB RWA target needs to be achieved through top-line revenue growth and this seems like a step in the right direction,” said Max Georgiou, Analyst at Third Bridge.

“To continue executing this strategy we expect to see a continued focus on regrowing share in the US market. The risks within this are potential human resources attrition from lay-off rounds and lower additional compensation and challenges in reaching high fee floors across completed advisory work.”

Rounding off an all-round solid update for Barclays, the bank announced a fresh £750m share buyback programme in addition to a 2.9p dividend for the first half.

Next shares surge higher as Q2 sales smash estimates

Next shares soared on Thursday after the retailer revealed stronger-than-expected performance despite tough comparables after strong summer trading last year.

Next is the gift that keeps on giving to investors. The company reported a 3.2% increase in full price sales compared to the same period last year, surpassing its own forecast by £42 million.

“Next has a reputation for under-promising and over-delivering and it’s delivered the goods once again. The retailer had low expectations for summer 2024 as beating last year’s strong performance was always going to be a tough challenge,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“While the first half of 2024 has been truly miserable for the UK retail sector thanks to unfavourable weather, the end of June perked up and much of July has had glorious sunshine. That’s encouraged people to get out of the house and into the shops.

“Next has once again grabbed a slice of consumer spending, helping to make up for a challenging time earlier this year.”

Next shares were 8.28% higher at the time of writing.

For the first half of 2024, NEXT’s full price sales grew by 4.4%, significantly outperforming the company’s initial guidance of 2.5%. Total Group sales, which include markdown sales, subsidiaries, and investments, saw an even more robust increase of 8.0% in the same period.

In response to these positive results, NEXT has raised its full-year profit guidance by £20 million to £980 million, representing a 6.7% increase compared to the previous year.

The company’s online division performed particularly well, with overseas online sales showing impressive growth of 21.9% in the second quarter. However, retail sales experienced a decline of 4.7% in the same period, reflecting the ongoing shift in consumer shopping habits towards digital channels.

Next’s financial services arm also contributed positively, with finance interest income growing by 3.3% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the first half of the year.

For the full year 2024/25, Next forecasts total Group sales, including markdown, subsidiaries, and investments, to reach £6.2 billion, representing a 6.0% increase from the previous year. The company expects its pre-tax earnings per share to grow by 8.1% to 818.8p.

These projections reflect Next’s strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of 97% of FatFace in October 2023 and an increased stake in Reiss from 51% to 72% in September 2023. These moves have contributed to the company’s overall growth trajectory and diversified its portfolio.

Shell shares rise as profits soften, but cash generation improves

Shell has released its financial results for the second quarter of 2024, beating earnings estimates and announcing a fresh buyback.

The company reported lower income attributable to shareholders compared to the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to reduced LNG trading and optimisation margins, lower refining margins, and decreased margins from crude and oil products trading and optimisation.

However, earnings hit $6.3 billion, surpassing estimates of $5.9 billion.

Shell shares were 1.50% higher at the time of writing.

In terms of shareholder distributions, distributed a total of $6.1 billion to shareholders in the quarter, comprising $4.0 billion in share repurchases and $2.2 billion in cash dividends. Shell has announced a further share buyback programme of $3.5 billion, expected to be completed by the third quarter 2024 results announcement.

The company’s net debt position improved, decreasing to $38.3 billion at the end of the second quarter, down from $40.5 billion at the end of the first quarter. This reduction in debt contributed to a lower gearing ratio of 17.0%, compared to 17.7% in the previous quarter.

Although there may be concerns about mixed income and earnings compared to prior quarters, investors will be encouraged by the fact Shell remains a generating machine with free cash flow increasing to $10.1 billion.

“Shell’s earnings took a dive from the levels seen in the first quarter, but once again beat expectations. Lower margins in trading, refining and oil products compounded a small dip in production due to maintenance at its fields,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“But the lifeblood of the business, free cash flow, actually increased marginally to $10.2bn. That’s given management the confidence to plough another $3.5bn into buybacks, maintaining the quarterly run-rate. It’s also supporting investment into Liquified Natural Gas projects in Abu Dhabi and Trinidad and Tobago, and the Atapu-2 deepwater project in Brazil. Meanwhile, it’s taken another chunk out of net debt which now stands at $38.3bn.”

“Mentions of new investments in new energy were conspicuous by their absence which may disappoint investors looking at Shell’s future beyond fossil fuels. The pause on construction at its proposed biofuels facility in the Netherlands contributed to a $2bn impairment to the value of its assets. However, its carbon capture at the Scotford refinery in Canada may go some way to appease environmentalists. For now, financial returns are front and centre of Wael Sawan’s mind, but that does leave Shell well placed to invest in the transition projects that are financially viable.”

Harland & Wolff Group Holdings – Calling In Rothschild For Strategic Options After Gaining $25m Additional Facility

The financially troubled ‘strategic infrastructure projects’ group has announced that it has been awarded an additional $25m funding facility.

That now takes its total commitment up to $140m under that facility.

It has also taken a number of corporate decisions to help to stabilise its operations.

The group announced that it is immediately ceasing the operation of all of its passenger services between the Isles of Scilly and Penzance, reducing its services to those just based out of its Appledore, Arnish, Methil and Belfast delivery centres.

Additionally, the group will not be proceeding with its ‘fast ferry service’ with the fast ferry expected to be out for disposal.

Importantly, it is noted that the company has formally engaged Rothschild & Co as financial adviser to assess strategic options for the group.

Embattled Chairman Malcolm Groat stated that:

“We are grateful to our lenders in continuing their funding commitment to support Harland & Wolff Group’s ongoing stabilisation and long-term strategy objectives.

We also look forward to working with the very experienced team from Rothschild & Co to help us achieve that objective.

It is regrettable that we have taken the tough decision to terminate the fast ferry, but we need to focus our energies and resources in continuing to grow the core business across our four delivery centres.

This decision aligns with and brings us back to our fundamental five markets and six services strategy.

Our ferry service team will be working closely with passengers and other counterparties to ensure a smooth transition out of this business.”

The group’s shares are currently trading at around the 8p level, at which the group is capitalised at £14.7m.

Rolls Royce shareholder distributions to be reinstated as profits soar

British engineering giant Rolls-Royce has posted strong financial results for the first half of 2024, overcoming ongoing supply chain difficulties to significantly boost its profits and raise its full-year guidance.

Investors can now also look forward to distributions for the full year as the company reinstates payouts.

Underlying operating profit skyrocketed to £1.1 billion, a staggering 74% increase compared to the same period last year. Increased profitability saw underlying margin up by 4.4% to 14.0%. These figures reflect the early success of Rolls-Royce’s transformation programme and strategic initiatives designed to streamline the business.

Rolls Royce has been one of the best-performing FTSE 100 stocks since the pandemic, and today’s results are a validation of the sharp rally.

“Our transformation of Rolls-Royce into a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business is proceeding with pace and intensity. We are expanding the earnings and cash potential of the business in a challenging supply chain environment, which we are proactively managing. We are on track to deliver our mid-term targets,” said Tufan Erginbilgic, CEO of Rolls Royce.

The Civil Aerospace division emerged as a standout performer, with its operating margin soaring to 18.0% from 12.4% in H1 2023. This leap was fuelled by a resurgence in large engine flying hours and a stronger showing in the business aviation sector. Defence and Power Systems divisions also reported significant margin improvements, contributing to the overall stellar performance.

Free cash flow more than tripled to £1.2 billion, driven by the surge in operating profit and continued growth in long-term service agreement (LTSA) balances. This financial strength has allowed Rolls-Royce to slash its net debt to a mere £0.8 billion – this progress shouldn’t be underestimated.

In light of these achievements, Rolls-Royce has raised its full-year guidance for 2024. The company now expects underlying operating profit to reach between £2.1 billion and £2.3 billion, up from the previous forecast of £1.7 billion to £2.0 billion. Free cash flow projections have also been revised upwards to £2.1 billion to £2.2 billion.

However, it’s not all smooth sailing. Rolls-Royce acknowledges the persistent challenges in the supply chain, which are expected to impact free cash flow by £150-200 million this year. The company anticipates these hurdles to continue for another 18-24 months but is actively working to mitigate their effects.

In a move that will surely please investors, Rolls-Royce has announced plans to reinstate shareholder distributions for the 2024 financial year. The company will start with a 30% pay-out ratio of underlying profit after tax, with the potential to increase this to 30-40% in subsequent years.