Pennant International adds to rail operations

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Pennant International (LON: PEN) is reducing its dependence on the aerospace and defence sector through the acquisition of UK rail services business Track Access Productions. This should be earnings enhancing and adds to the recurring revenues base.

Bedfordshire-based Track Access Productions provides driver training and route mapping services to train operators, freight companies and infrastructure providers. AIM-quoted Pennant International is paying an initial £798,500, which takes account of the cash in the business, and a further £175,500 in 12 months. In the year to March 2023, revenues were £600,000 – 50% recurring – and pre-tax profit was around £200,000.

The acquisition fits well with an existing group business and the combined entity should generate annualised revenues of £850,000.

Active investor Rockwood Strategic (LON: RKW) has been building up a stake in Pennant International and it currently owns 5.16%. It tends to build up a stake over time and try to take an active role in improving the performance of a business.

The share price rose by 2.7% to 38p and it is one-quarter higher than at the end of 2022. WH Ireland plans to upgrade its earnings forecast. The broker anticipates a return to profit in 2022 and a significant improvement to £1.2m in 2023. The 2023 earnings estimate before the acquisition was 3.3p a share.

AIM movers: Kodal Minerals lithium mine financing progresses and ex-dividends

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Kodal Minerals (LON: KOD) says that Hainan Mining has received approvals from the Chinese authorities for its proposed £82m funding package for the Bougouni lithium project in Mali and £14.6m share subscription. Kodal Mining subsidiaries have to be reorganised for the conditions to be completed and that should happen by the end of April. A $7m deposit has been achieved. The share price rose 12.3% to 0.665p.

Aeorema Communications (LON: AEO) chief executive Steve Quah sold 12,437 shares at 80p each and non-exec Hannah Luffman bought the same number at the same price. She did not previously own any shares. The share price is 10.6% higher at 88.5p.

Cyber security services provider Corero Network Security (LON: CNS) has gained significant new orders totalling $2m for its SmartWall services. The average order vale is $380,000. Sales and marketing is more targeted. There was a 8.7% recovery in the share price to 6.25p, although it has still fallen by nearly one-third so far this year.

Tlou Energy (LON: TLOU) has commenced work on the Lesedi 6 well and it plans to improve dewatering and gas flow so more gas can be extracted from the coal seam. The gas will be used to generate electricity as part of the 10MW power purchase agreement with Botswana Power Corporation. The share price is 9.09% ahead at 2.4p.

Steppe Cement Ltd (LON: STCM) was hit by significant share selling early in the morning following a decline in cement sales in the quarter to March 2023. The share price slumped 23.9% to 33.5p. The Kazakh cement market declined by 13%, compared with a 24% volume decline for the company. There were logistical problems.

The Bezant Resources (LON: BZT) share price continues to fall following the announcement it is raising £750,000 at 0.04p a share to finance operations at the Hope copper gold project in Namibia. There was a further decline of 7.61% to 0.0425p.

Distill (LON: DIS) had a good fourth quarter of trading, relative to earlier in the year, but year-on-year sales were still lower and full year performance was still below market expectations. The move to a direct sales model in the UK by the spirits producer has taken longer than anticipated. Full year revenues are expected to be £1.32m. That means that the 2022-23 loss will be higher than expected. The share price is 5.26% lower at 0.45p.

Watkin Jones Group (LON: WJG) shares have fallen 5.47% to 90.65p after an interim trading update. Institutional interest in student accommodation and private rental developments is improving, but the figures will be second half weighted. The interim profit could be less than one-fifth of the forecast 2023-24 pre-tax profit of £50m. Net cash is £44m.

Ex-dividends

Alpha Group International (LON: ALPH) is paying a final dividend of 11p a share and the share price is unchanged at 2050p.  

Caledonia Mining Corp (LON: CMCL) is paying a dividend of 14 cents a share and the share price is unchanged at 1350p.  

Franchise Brands (LON: FRAN) is paying a final dividend of 1.1p a share and the share price rose 1.5p to 184p.  

Johnson Service Group (LON: JSG) is paying a final dividend of 1.6p a share and the share price is 1.4p higher at 121.8p.  

Tesco profit sinks as cost of living crisis bites

Tesco missed market expectations for revenue growth in last year, but still managed to increase sales by 5.1% on a like-for-like basis. Profits sank as a result of lower margins due to the cost of living crisis.

Soaring rates of inflation and resultant wider cost of living crisis is a thorn in the side of major supermarkets as their customer’s spending power dwindles.

An over 2% rise in Tesco’s share price to 273p on Thursday reflects the extent economic concerns had already been factored into their shares. The selloff late last year took Tesco shares down to 200p.

While the top line displayed resilience, the impact of higher costs was clearly obvious in their operating profit. Profit before tax halved to $1bn from £2bn in FY 21/22.

Although total revenue rose, volumes fell and cost inflation eroded margins as Tesco wages a war of attrition against the discounters Aldi and Lidl. Adjusted operating profit fell 7.1% as Tesco’s average store worker wage rose to £11.02 per hour. 

“Tesco has seen profits take a knock as inflation means struggling customers are picking up fewer items while prices soar. At the same time, the grocery giant is investing heavily in its customer care while times are so tough. While the group is doing what it can to keep prices low, it’s not lost on consumers that grocery inflation remains one of the most painful areas of overall rising costs at the moment,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“That’s where we’ve seen the rise of the discounters, which although much smaller, have forced the main players to up their game. Aldi price matches and other similar campaigns are a stark reminder of how stiff competition is. By some trains of thinking, if you’re having to name your competitor, they’ve already won.”

Wholesaler Booker was a stand out performer for Tesco with a 12% increase in like-for-like sales. Tesco bank adjusted operating profit slipped 18% due to provisions for an uncertain economic outlook.

Tesco proposed a final dividend of 7.05p to total a full year dividend of 10.90p. This was in line with last year’s dividend.

International growth at Churchill China

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Churchill China (LON: CHH) continues to win market share in Europe as it broadens its distribution network and that help the hospitality ceramics manufacturer to beat 2022 expectations. However, management is cautious about the UK prospects.  

Exports are nearly two-thirds of hospitality revenues. Churchill China has around 6% of the continental European market. Sales and marketing is being increased in the region. Other international markets are also growing.

In the UK, the acquisition of the Dudson brand has helped to win new customers. UK hospitality market share is around 30%. The retail sales have fallen to £2.4m, so they are less than 3% of the total.

Materials sales were 37% ahead at £7.2m and the profit contribution more than doubled to £1.2m. This reflects strong demand from other UK ceramics manufacturers.

Problems recruiting have hampered production efficiency at Churchill China, but volumes were still 30% ahead of those in 2021. Energy costs have been hedged and they are currently lower. Solar panels have been installed. Capital investment will help to improve efficiency.

In 2022, revenues improved from £60.8m to £82.5m and pre-exceptional profit rose from £6m to £9.1m. The dividend is being increased from 24p a share to 31.5p a share and that is still more than twice covered by earnings.

There was a reduction in cash from £19.1m to £14.7m, which was mainly down to an increase in inventories. Longer production runs are one way to improve efficiency and they lead to higher stocks. This level of stock is not likely to reduce significantly as Churchill China tries to ensure that it has a full range of products to satisfy demand.

The high level of capital investment means that there could be another fall in cash this year. Michael Cunningham will be joining the company as finance director on 1 June.

The order book is stronger than normal, and the year has started well. Singer forecasts a 2023 pre-tax profit of £11.3m and another jump in dividend to 39.1p a share. At 1285p, the shares are trading on less than 17 times prospective earnings.

There is uncertainty about the outlook for the year, but there is undoubtedly strong demand for Churchill China products and scope for further market share gains in Europe. An attractive long-term investment.

Top 5 high-risk small-cap FTSE shares to consider in Q2 2023 Part 1

Part 1: Harland & Wolff (LON:HARL) and (LON:BOIL) sport relatively depressed share prices that could offer decent entry points to would-be investors.

As we dive into Q2 2023, some of the most promising FTSE AIM shares remain seriously undervalued from a risk-reward perspective.

Of course, this is only a personal view, and not investing advice. These companies are AIM shares for a reason. They’re speculative and volatile, but come with the chance of exceptional returns for those prepared to buy, hold, and wait.

5 high-risk FTSE AIM shares to buy

1. Harland & Wolff (LON: HARL)

With an investor event coming on 17 April, HARL has plenty of developments to highlight to its shareholders. The meat is of course the £900 million backlog of already confirmed contracted revenues — £750 million of which is represented by the gigantic FSS contract.

HARL also has a £3.6 billion pipeline of new business over the next five years — representing a projected backlog of £1.24 billion at the current win rate. And it’s usually the case that contract wins beget contract wins.

The FTSE company is targeting revenues of between £100 million and £115 million in FY23, and this is expected to double to between £200 million to £230 million in FY24 — with a blended gross margin of 24-27% ‘over the medium term.’

While HARL only expected to start breaking even in FY24, it has upsized a debt facility with Riverstone to $100 million and is refinancing a further £200 million this quarter.

It also helps that President Joe Biden is visiting the country today.

Further, the company is awaiting formal hearings between 2-5 May concerning the Islandmagee Gas Storage Project, with the company ‘optimistic of a positive outcome’ for the full judicial review. It’s worth noting that while concerns over gas prices have subsided for now, the UK’s record low storage and concerns over next winter mean there is political pressure to get the project approved.

Of course, there are risks — HARL released a bombshell RNS late last year which tanked the share price, but the disconnect between the fundamentals and its £26 million market cap is vast.

2. Baron Oil (LON: BOIL)

BOIL shares rose to 0.25p apiece in mid-February, but the stock has fallen to 0.14p today, representing a great entry point — despite having doubled over the past year.

The explorer’s Competent Person’s Report for the Chuditch Project estimates that Chuditch-1 contains ‘1,084 Bscf gross mean contingent gas resources attributable to the licence,’ with various further resources across the prospect.

BOIL is, and always has been, about waiting for Chuditch to be sold to one of the titans in the region who already have an interest in building suitable infrastructure in East Timor. This will be an expensive endeavour given the logistics of building over the Timor Trench, but Woodside is engaging a concept study on the nearby Sunrise Project.

The buyer could be ENI, Santos, or Woodside — but one side of the equation that has not yet been highlighted is that Australia is becoming a harder place to drill for oil and gas.

Challenges to the £11 billion per annum subsidies, the safeguard legislation, and multiple blocked projects including lawsuits awarded against Santos’ $5.5 billion Barossa venture are all creating an atmosphere where the majors may start to look elsewhere.

FTSE 100 rises as US inflation falls

The FTSE 100 convincingly broke 7,800 on Wednesday as London’s leading index continued the recovery from the banking crisis saga.

One may dare to suggest if the momentum in the current rally continues, the index could attack the psychological 8,000 level in the coming days.

The FTSE 100 was trading at 7,822, up 0.5% at the time of writing. The S&P 500 was 0.3% to the good.

Stock specific news was light on Wednesday and all eyes were on US inflation data and the ramifications for the global economy.

The nervousness in markets around inflation was demonstrated with the sharp reaction in equities to just a marginally better CPI print.

US CPI for the month of March was 5% compared to estimates of 5.2%. US equities jumped in the immediate reaction, before easing off.

March’s reading is materially lower than the 6% rise in prices in the year to February and will make the next monetary policy decision a tough one.

The problems faced by central banks have been well documented and today’s data will not make their job any easier.

Numerous commentators are keeping financial media alive with talks of a US recession while the IMF has again highlighted the slow pace of UK growth. Indeed, the IMF predicts the UK economy will contract in 0.3%.

Such a negative economic outlook would not usually be conducive for higher interest rates. However, a US CPI reading of 5% means central banks still have to act to control prices. This could make the economic picture worse.

The horrible truth is the Fed needs a recession to control inflation. Nonetheless, equity markets are largely ignoring this earnings-eroding scenario, for now.

Centrica

Centrica was among the FTSE 100’s top risers again on Wednesday as the utilities company benefited from the defensive nature of their business and elevated energy prices.

BT was the FTSE 100’s top riser, gaining 1.8%, as their quiet rally took the stock to the highest level since August.

Ocado was the top faller, down 2.6%, as traders booked profits

Vietnam’s manufacturing sector moves up the value chain

In recent years, Vietnam has attracted more and more attention as a destination for manufacturing investment.

While the country was already a significant hub, Donald Trump’s tariffs on China in 2017 spurred major investment in Vietnam, as did China’s years-long pursuit of zero-Covid that only recently ended.

In 2018, for example, FDI in Vietnam rose by 9.1% to US$19.1 billion, with processing and manufacturing accounting for 46.7% of that total. In 2021, FDI rose 25.2% after a weak 2020 to US$38.9 billion. 

Through the first two months of 2023, FDI hit US$3.1 billion. This was considerably less than the same period in 2022, but this is more a reflection of the global macroeconomic situation, as opposed to Vietnam’s attractiveness.

For example, in March, executives from 52 American corporations including Boeing, Meta, Netflix, and SpaceX visited Vietnam as part of the largest-ever U.S. business mission to the country.

During the visit, US Ambassador to Vietnam Marc Knapper said American businesses have “remarkable” interest in the country, adding that “it really does show the commitment of the U.S. and U.S. companies to this market and to this relationship.”

Meanwhile, a recent survey by the Japan External Trade Organization found that Vietnam is the top country in Southeast Asia for Japanese companies looking to expand.

And ample high-tech manufacturing came online last year, with more on the way.

Suppliers for Apple are moving some Macbook production from China to Vietnam, while AirPods, iPads, and Apple Watches are either already made here or will be in the near future.

Samsung, long the largest foreign investor in Vietnam, plans to increase its investment in the country to US$20 billion and opened a US$220 million R&D center in Hanoi last December.

Another high-profile new investment that signals movement up the value chain was LEGO’s decision to build a US$1 billion carbon-neutral factory in Binh Duong. The company has a manufacturing facility in China that it has expanded multiple times.

“We knew we needed a factory in Southeast Asia, and we evaluated a large number of parameters when deciding where to go,” said Preben Elnef, General Manager of LEGO Manufacturing Vietnam. “Access to shipping facilities, access to skilled labor, and it was important for us to select a country that had ambitions to develop more skilled labor.”

LEGO ultimately found a strong connection with Vietnam on this.

“And on the carbon-neutral side, we were also looking for a country where we felt they were serious when they say that they are ready to change,” he added. “We have not selected the easiest country to be carbon-neutral, and some may claim it’s very difficult for that, but their ambitions and especially Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s commitment at COP26 was a game-changer.”

These difficulties stem from Vietnam’s ongoing reliance on thermal power for much of its electricity supply. The country has made huge strides in installing renewable energy capacity but delayed energy policies have hampered the actual use of solar and wind energy.

Some experts are also concerned that a growing focus on manufacturing, and especially foreign-investment manufacturing, won’t ultimately benefit workers.

Elnef, for his part, is aware of these issues and stressed that LEGO strives to do its part to improve both sustainability and working conditions.

“It’s a learning exercise; so we are selecting construction materials with less embedded carbon, which is a new way of thinking here and has some added costs,” he said. “A lot of companies have reached out and asked how we are doing this, so we hope more do the same.”

Elnef went on: “Of course, we know that we will not change the world because we are carbon-neutral, but if our neighbors do it as well, then it really starts to help.”

When it comes to labor, the heavily digital factory will feature some of the employee comforts currently provided to office workers at LEGO’s headquarters in Denmark.

“We have a special focus on the shop floor workforce, and we think it should be really cool to work for us,” he said. “We are trying something new to attract a workforce to our factory.”

While carbon neutrality is difficult to achieve and far from the standard in Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, LEGO is not alone in attempting to pursue a more sustainable industry.

Pepperl+Fuchs, the German sensor manufacturer, recently inaugurated a sustainable factory in Ho Chi Minh City. The facility received LEED Gold certification and could provide a model for other companies expanding their presence.

Vietnam’s manufacturing growth is not without its challenges, especially given the sector’s dependence on North America and the European Union as export markets. Economic problems in those regions have led to falling demand for consumer goods and large-scale layoffs at some factories. 

At the same time, however, Chinese investors are flowing into the country following China’s reopening, with Reuters reporting that Chinese companies inked 45 new investment deals in the first two months of 2023, more than any other country.

Increasingly volatile relations between China and the U.S. and its allies will also ensure that corporations will continue to look beyond their traditional manufacturing hub.

While the question of whether Vietnam could replace China as the ‘world’s factory’ may be hyperbolic given the latter’s much larger population and economy, there is little doubt that the former has firmly established itself on the global manufacturing map.

Writing credit Michael Tatarski

Tekcapital shares jump after Innovative Eyewear soars 200%

Tekcapital shares rose on Wednesday after their portfolio company Innovative Eyewear soared 200% in US trade yesterday.

The tripling of Innovative Eyewear’s shares was a result of the launch of their ChatGPT enabled smart eyewear.

Innovative Eyewear shares closed up 201% at $4.40 overnight and Tekcapital had added 8% to trade at 17.8p at the time of writing.

AIM-listed Tekcapital has 67% stake in Innovative Eyewear which is listed on the NASDAQ. The value of Tekcapital’s stake increased in the region $15m yesterday.

With Tekcapital’s market capitalisation sitting at just £29m, it suggests value in the current share price given the rest of their portfolio includes MicroSalt, Belluscura and Guident.

Tekcapital’s holdings in London-listed Belluscura is worth around £5m and MicroSalt is preparing for an IPO after appointing advisors last year.

Innovative Eyewear patent

Today, Tekcapital announced Innovative Eyewear has filed a patent related to the prioritisation of AI chatbots across a range of devices, including smart eyewear.

“We believe we are the first smart eyewear company to provide (patent-pending), artificial intelligence voice accessibility on Bluetooth-enabled eyewear. With our new Lucyd app, we are continuing to make eyewear more flexible and smarter than ever before,” says Harrison Gross, CEO of Innovative Eyewear. 

AIM movers: Ocean Harvest continues rise and Bezant Resources fundraising

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Ocean Harvest Technology (LON: OHT) continues to rise. A further 23.8% increase takes the share price to 26p. A placing raised £6m, or £4.5m after expenses, at 16p. The company produces ingredients for animal feed using seaweed under the OceanFeed brand name.

Market research services provider System1 (LON: SYS1) is growing the revenues of its standard products and fourth quarter revenues were £5.27m, 73% higher than the corresponding period last year, taking the group total for the quarter to £6.62m. Full year group revenues were £23.3m. There should be a return to profit in the second half. Net cash is £5.7m. The share price is 16.9% higher at 190p.

Zephyr Energy (LON: ZPHR) has nearly recovered its loss from yesterday after it revealed that there was an oil spill at the State 36-2 LNW-CC well in the Paradox Basin in Utah. The share price recovered 12.6% to 4.9p, having ended last week at 5.1p. Zephyr Energy is attempting to remove impacted soil and clean up the equipment. An environmental survey will be conducted.

Invinity Energy Systems (LON: IES) has been awarded an £11m grant from the UK government under phase 2 of the Longer Duration Storage Demonstration competition. This will deploy a 30MWh vanadium flow battery. The share price is 11.8% higher at 38p.

Bezant Resources (LON: BZT) is raising £750,000 at 0.04p a share to finance operations at the Hope copper gold project in Namibia. The plan is to construct an 8,000 tonnes per annum open pit mine. Drilling will increase the resource. Metallurgical test work will be pursued at the Kanye manganese project in Namibia. The share price slumped 24.2% to 0.05p.

Vast Resources (LON: VAST) is raising £979,000 at 0.46p and the cash will be used to upgrade equipment at the Baita Plai polymetallic mine in Romania. The strategy is to reach production of 14,000 tonnes/month during the first half. Vast Resources had expected to use cash from claims in Zimbabwe, but this has been delayed. The share price slipped 5.88% to 0.48p.

Currency and payment services provider Argentex (LON: AGFX) says nine months revenues were 63% ahead at £41m, although the underlying operating profit fell from £11m to £9m. The share price fell 4.49% to 122.25p. Net cash is £26.2m. The final dividend will be 2.25p a share. The year end is being changed from March to December.

Womenswear retailer Sosandar (LON: SOS) reported improving revenues and margins, although pre-tax was lower than expected in March. Full year pre-tax profit is still expected to be £1.6m and it could be more than £3m in 2023-24. More partnerships with other retailers are likely to be secured. The share price dipped 4.21% to 22.75p. The February placing raised £5.4m at 22p a share.

Marks Electrical momentum continues

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Consumer electronic and electrical appliances retailer Marks Electrical (LON: MRK) has beaten expectations in the fourth quarter and the full year forecast has been upgraded along with those for the following two years. The AIM-quoted online retailer is undoubtedly taking market share from its rivals.

Revenues in the fourth quarter to March 2023 were one-fifth higher at £24.8m and this means that full year revenues are 21% ahead at £97.8m. This has led to a 2022-23 pre-tax profit upgrade from £5.8m to £6.2m, which is still below the £6.4m reported for the previous year. Net cash is £10m and a 1p a share dividend is expected for the year.

There was additional marketing in London and south east England. The installation service was launched in the second half, and this should help growth to continue to be at high rates, although it is unlikely to be as strong as last year.  

The cash pile enables investment in warehouse space and delivery vehicles. Dividends will also grow steadily. Even so, cash should continue to build up.

Market share remains modest at around 2%. This year, revenues of £112m and pre-tax profit of £7.1m is forecast.                                                                                                              

The share price increased by 6p to 89.5p and the prospective 2023-24 multiple is less than 18. As momentum continues, this multiple should come down significantly over the coming years.