Early FTSE 100 gains diminish after Bank of England Governor speech

The FTSE 100 had a roaring start to Tuesday’s session following comments by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggesting rates hikes could soon come to an end, and said the current banking crisis was not like the 2008 financial crisis.

The FTSE 100 traded as high as 7,520 in early trade on Tuesday, but fell back to trade dead flat by midday.

Early optimism saw another jump in banking shares. Barclays traded above 140p before falling back to trade negatively, Natwest shares also gave up all of their early gains.

“It’s all about confidence right now – and anything which reassures shareholders, creditors and depositors that their money is safe with the banks is one step further away from the carnage which claimed SVB and Credit Suisse,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

The confidence Mould alludes to appears to be fragile. Traders selling early strength suggests markets are conscious the current crisis is not yet completely over.

Diageo CEO steps down

After a 10-year stint as CEO of Diageo, Sir Ivan Menezes will step down and be replaced by Debra Crew. Diageo shares fell on Tuesday.

“The market reaction, with a mere 0.5% decline in the share price, shows that investors aren’t worried about big changes to the business. Instead, this looks like as smooth a transition as an athlete passing the baton in a sprint relay,” said Russ Mould.

Analysts highlighted the precarious role for the new CEO with Diageo shares trading above 20x earnings.

“Growth is expected to slow in the short-term however, and an earnings multiple of about 20x means Debra Crew will be under extra pressure to perform,” commented Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Ocado

Ocado shares were the FTSE 100’s top faller after the company released an update on their Ocado retail partnership with Marks & Spencer. Revenue, customer numbers and orders per week were all higher, but investors were apparently unhappy with the lower average basket size and shares fell over 5%.

“Ocado’s retail arm is in a difficult position. While the cost-of-living crisis rumbles on, being a more premium name in the sector comes with immediate challenges,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“However, the group seems to be doing well with the tools at its disposal. Although the number of items people are buying per-shop is dropping, which is to be expected as post-Covid shopping habits normalise, this is being successfully offset by higher prices.”

Diageo shares dip as CEO Sir Ivan Menezes steps down

Diageo shares slipped on Tuesday after the global drinks giant announced CEO Sir Ivan Menezes will step down and replaced by Debra Crew.

Sir Ivan Menezes has been in charge of Diageo since July 2013 and shareholder disappointment on Tuesday is understandable.

During his tenure, the Diageo share price has nearly doubled and is firmly established as one of the world’s largest alcohol companies by market cap.

“A change at the top is always a leap into the unknown, although slightly less so when the incumbent is already part of the team. Diageo is the sixth largest company on the FTSE 100, and the new captain is unlikely to be given much of a honeymoon period by shareholders,” said Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Sir Ivan will be a tough act to follow. Diageo now sells over 200 drinks brands across 180 markets, and is a category leader in many of its spirits categories. And on a fitting note for his departure, its flagship Guinness brand has become the number one beer sold in pubs in the UK.”

“Growth is expected to slow in the short-term however, and an earnings multiple of about 20x means Debra Crew will be under extra pressure to perform.”

Diageo shares are down 2.7% year-to-date and has a 2.1% yield.

Vietnam Holding offers an attractive discount to NAV after outperforming benchmark

After a challenging year in 2022, Vietnam Holding (LON:VNH) now trades at an attractive discount to NAV, which is difficult to overlook as Vietnamese equities continue their recovery.

Last year was a tough year for Asian equities. Prolonged Chinese COVID-19 restrictions and concern about US interest rates curtailed interest in region and broad equity indices suffered. MSCI Asia ex Japan declined 19.35% in 2022.

The MSCI Frontier Market Index of global frontier markets, of which Vietnam accounts for 30%, was down 26.05%.

Demonstrating Vietnam Holding’s investment selection prowess, VNH’s NAV per share declined by 30.1% versus a 39.8% decline in the Vietnam All Share Index (VNAS) benchmark.

The substantial declines means the VNH Investment Trust presents value from both an earnings perspective and discount to NAV.

Vietnam Holding Price-to-Earnings

As of 28th February, the VNH portfolio has an estimated 2023 earnings Price-to-Earnings ratio of 8.3. This falls to 7.3 for 2024 earnings.

These earnings multiples represent deep value for a portfolio comprised of growth companies domiciled in a region set to be promoted to an emerging market from an frontier in the coming years.

In addition, the value in Vietnam Holding shares is compounded by the 14% share price discount to the portfolio’s NAV. The trust’s managers are conscious of the current discount and are taking steps to help reduce the disparity.

“The Board made appropriate decisions for implementing share buybacks as a means of addressing the discount between the share price and the NAV. During the period in review, the Company bought back 505,037 shares at an average price of USD 3.248, adding an estimated 0.26 % in NAV per share accretion,” said Hiroshi Funaki, Chairman of Vietnam Holding.

Marwyn Acquisition Company II appoints former Curtis Banks boss

Standard list shell Marwyn Acquisition Company II (LON: MAC2) has appointed former Curtis Banks Group (LON: CBP) chief executive Will Self as the chief executive – pensions division.

This year, AIM-quoted Curtis Banks was acquired for 350p a share in cash by Nucleus Financial Platforms, which valued the SIPP administrator at £242m.

Marwyn Acquisition Company II joined the standard list on 4 December 2020. The original investing strategy covered a wide range of sectors including media, technology, e-commerce, healthcare and business services.

Last June, Mark Hodges was appointed chairman and the strategy was refined to focus on financial services, consumer and technology sectors. Mark Hodges is the former chief executive of life assurance company ReAssure and he previously worked at Aviva. As did recently appointed non-exec Cathryn Riley, who replaced Mark Brangstrup Watts on the board.  

Will Self will lead the search for suitable financial services acquisitions. The strategy has been further refined to include themes including changing population demographics, intergenerational wealth transfer, social and family support and concentration of wealth.

Marwyn Acquisition Company II has net assets of £8.25m, including cash of £10.2m.

FTSE 100 jumps as banking fears retreat

The FTSE 100 gained on Monday after fears about the global financial system eased and investors stepped in to pick up beaten down stocks.

The FTSE 100 was nearly 1% higher at 7,476 at the time of writing, while the German DAX added 1.2%. A sharp rally in Deutsche Bank shares helped lift the mood in Europe.

“Bargain hunters were out in force for Europe’s banks following the chaos of the past few weeks. Deutsche Bank jumped more than 4% in early trading, regaining some of the territory lost last week when its share price plummeted,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Although Deutsche Bank shares found some support, the cost of insuring against the bank defaulting on their bonds still remained high. Deutsche Bank Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will be closely watched in the coming days and further increases could spark another wave of volatility.

In addition to stability in Deutsche Bank’s equity, news First Citizens Bank had acquired SVB assets instilled a sense the crisis was past its worst.

“Helping to repair sentiment towards the sector was the news that First Citizens Bank is to buy $72 billion of Silicon Valley Bank assets at a discount of $16.5 billion. Together with HSBC’s purchase of SVB’s UK operations and UBS’ takeover of Credit Suisse, investors will be hoping for some stability from now on in the broader sector,” said Russ Mould.

The positive developments at SVB and Deutsche Bank spilled over into the FTSE 100’s banks with Barclays, Natwest and Lloyds gaining on the day. Standard Chartered was still feeling the heat and trading in negative territory.

The gains elsewhere in the index were broad; 89 of the FTSE 100’s constituents were trading in positive territory at the time of writing.

Lettings offset sales decline at Belvoir

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Strong lettings business helped to offset a decline in income from house sales for franchised lettings and estate agency business Belvoir Group (LON: BLV) last year. There is cash to invest in further acquisitions.

In the year to December 2022, revenues were 14% ahead at £33.7m. That includes contributions from personal estate agency Mr and Mrs Clarke and financial adviser TIME Group. Like-for-like growth was 2%.

Lettings revenues were 5% higher, which is slightly more than the average rent increase of 4.2%. The like-for-like income from housing sales fell by 15%. The financial services division generated like-for-like growth of 4%. There was an increased proportion of remortgages in the financial service business.

Underlying pre-tax profit dipped from £10.3m to £10.2m. The dividend is 6% higher at 9p a share, which is covered 2.4 times by earnings. Net cash was £1.2m at the end of 2022. That figure could exceed £5m by the end of 2023 if no acquisitions are made.

Acquisitions

Belvoir continues to help to fund acquisitions by franchisees. There is also potential for more direct acquisitions. Belvoir has a good record of acquiring businesses that enhance growth. Management believes there are opportunities at sensible prices.

Lettings revenues will continue to be resilient with growth opportunities from rising rents and regulation changes. A new software system will help the financial services business to identify more opportunities.

A further pre-tax profit decline to £9.4m is expected in 2023. This reflects the concerns about the effect of higher interest rates on the market.

At 166.5p, the shares are trading on nine times prospective 2023 earnings, with the prospect of longer-term profit growth. The forecast yield is 5.7%. Given the cash generation and forecast income, the shares are attractive.

AIM movers: Verici Dx continues recovery and Scotgold Resources low ore grades

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Verici Dx (LON: VRCI) continues to recover following last Wednesday’s operational announcement. Post kidney transplant rejection assessment product Tutiva has been launched and pre-transplant product Clarava should be launched before the end of 2023. The share price, up 57.1% to 11p, is the highest it has been since the beginning of February and 132% higher than one week ago when it reached an all-time low.  

Immupharma (LON: IMM) has submitted a phase 2/3 clinical trial protocol to the FDA for testing Lupuzor as a treatment for lupus. A meeting with the FDA has been requested. The share price has jumped 17% to 2.1375p.

Publisher Merit Group (LON: MRIT) has negotiated an early end to the lease on office space and, after a move to a smaller office, this could save £1.4m a year. This follows the sale of the media, events and trading business for £4.5m. The share price rose 13.2% to 30p.

Good 2022 figures from Equals (LON: EQLS) have led to an upgrade for 2023 and it is acquiring Belgium-based global payments services provider Oonex for up to £4.1m. This deal has to be approved by the National Bank of Belgium and it provides better access to the European market. The 2023 pre-tax profit forecast has been increased from £15m to £17.4m, while earnings per share are raised by 10% to 7p – the lower percentage increase is due to the tax charge and a higher number of shares. The share price is 9.26% ahead at 88.5p. There is 10p a share in cash ahead of the latest acquisition.

Inland Homes (LON: INL) has exchanged contracts to sell 31 affordable homes to Eastlight Community Homes for £6.54m. These are part of the Templar Green development. The share price recovered by 5.77% to 5.5p.

Scottish gold producer Scotgold Resources (LON: SGZ) has been hit by falling ore grades at the Cononish gold mine. The average gold grade in January was 5.65g/t. compared with an estimated grade of 7.35g/t. A different part of the mine is being developed and the production process is being changed. Shore has its forecasts under review because of concerns about the financial position of the company. The share price slumped 63.2% to 14p.

Midatech Pharma (LON: MTPH) shares have fallen 18.4% to 15.5p following a 20-for-one share consolidation and ahead of the cancellation of the AIM quotation on 26 April. Shares in In The Style (LON: ITS) have fallen a further 22.5% to 0.465p even though shareholders voted against a cancellation of the AIM quotation.

Recruitment firm RTC Group (LON: RTC) had a better second half, but still reported a full year loss on lower revenues. The UK was hampered by rail strikes and higher costs, although recruitment demand relating to smart meter installation grew. International revenues slumped following the withdrawal of NATO from Afghanistan. Net debt increased to £2.7m. The share price declined by 10.8% to 16.5p.

There are delays to permits for the Clogau gold mine that is owned by Alba Mineral Resources (LON: ALBA) because of concerns about bats habitat. Management says that airborne geographical surveys of the Dolgellau gold exploration project could take place between June and August, depending on CAA authorisation. The share price slipped 8.16% to 0.1125p.

Canadian Overseas Petroleum – ‘game changer’ oil producer completes near $15m financing

Some good news from the Calgary, Alberta-based Canadian Overseas Petroleum (LON:COPL) has just been announced.

From a combination of the group’s main bondholder, institutional shareholders, and new investors the company has completed its $14.8m Convertible Financing.

In the process the group issued 70.3m new warrants, while in tandem it settled off another $2.2m of debt to various creditors by issuing 26.84m new shares at a premium to the current market price.

Its interests

The £20m capitalised group is engaged in the exploration, appraisal, development and production of oil and gas assets with producing assets and reserves principally in the Converse and Natrona Counties in the US state of Wyoming, where it is the operator and majority working interest owner of three oil producing units.

The company also has interests in sub-Saharan Africa through its ShoreCan joint venture in Essar Nigeria, as well as independent interests in other countries.

The ‘game changer’

Last December the group declared a ‘game changer’ at its Frontier 1 oil reservoir in Wyoming. Oil production started in January before severe winter storms impacted to slow operations.

Referring to the financing President and CEO Arthur Millholland stated that:

“This is an important raise for COPL. 

After some bumpy months operationally, and in our refinancing negotiations, this raise supports the company to an intended RBL and for the capital investment required to achieve a material production uplift.

We appreciate the support of our leading investors and are excited about the deployment of this capital.”

The group’s shares improved to 5.32p on the news.

Nuformix confirms promising Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis treatment results

Nuformix, the fibrosis and oncology drug repurposing company, have released positive results from their NXP002 study and outlined the next steps in the development of the treament.

NXP002 is being developed as an inhaled treatment for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis. The most recent study utilising a human IPF lung tissue model found NXP002 to be non-toxic while producing a strong anti-fibrotic effect.

With the possibility NXP002 targets different disease pathways to existing standards of care, the findings of the study also suggests NXP002 could be used in addition to existing treatments to enhance an anti-fibrotic effect.

Nuformix’s next steps include additional studies on donor lung tissue and the further evaluation of current results to identify disease pathways.

“All parties are delighted with the results from this study, which are as good as we could have hoped for and are the first results from what is the most advanced iteration of this ‘close to patient’ IPF disease model to date,” said Dr Dan Gooding, Executive Director of Nuformix.

“The reduced variability in the resulting data allows us to have high confidence in both NXP002’s anti-fibrotic activity alone, but also in the added anti-fibrotic performance it can deliver on top of existing standards of care.  Additivity to standard of care is the most important aspect because it’s the simplest option to investigate in a clinical study and is therefore fast becoming a top priority for potential licensing partners.”

“Having seen the quality of these results, our aim now is to generate datasets from three donors in both human IPF and healthy lung duration of action studies.  These data can be generated quickly and will be essential in opening up new discussions with potential licensing partners and support overall progression of the NXP002 programme.”

New Aquis admission: Essentially Group

Juices maker Essentially Group has floated so that it can use shares to make acquisitions and investments and potentially raise further cash to finance growth. Capital investment and greater scale will improve margins.
The manufacturing facility is in Dubai, and another is planned for Saudi Arabia. Management believes that the high levels of overweightness in the Middle East will lead to a move to more healthy eating. There are also taxes on sugar-based drinks.
The current share price is 52.5p (50p/55p). There do not appear to have been any trades.
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