AFC Energy – a long time to profitability, but worth the wait?

The price of green hydrogen has been forecasted to halve in the next 10 years, and now nations are investing in the infrastructure for their hydrogen future.
There is a lot going for it!
Hydrogen is the simplest, cleanest and most abundant element in the universe.
Alkaline fuel cells generate electricity through an electro-chemical process that combines hydrogen and oxygen to produce pure water as a by-product.
What do these companies have in common?
An interesting question may well be – what do these companies have in common?
ABB, Keltbray, Taylor Woodrow, Colas Rail, Kier, Vard, Acciona, Mac...

Halma on track for 20th year of record profits

Halma shares were creeping higher on Thursday after the life-saving technology group said group adjusted profit before tax will be in line with market expectations.

In 2022 FY, Halma’s adjusted profit before tax grew to £316.2m and this years expectations of £353.1m to £369.6m would represent the 20th year of growth.

The company has achieved another year of profit growth through acquisitions and building organic growth momentum across all geographies.

“Today’s update was yet another reassuring statement from Halma who is on track to deliver its 20th year in a row of record profits. It’s also been a record year for investment in M&A, committing to a deal spend of up to £264m. We think the challenging macro environment will present further opportunities for Halma to pick up complementary businesses at attractive prices,” said Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Halma continues to prove the resilience of its sectors, and with order intake ahead of last year, next year is also beginning to shape up nicely.”

Nathan continued to explain how the recent selloff has tarred all companies with the same brush and suggested Halma’s declines were unjustified. He did, however, caution that the PE ratio was a little rich.

“The shares have not escaped the recent sell off in the FTSE 100, and that’s perhaps a little unjustified. Nevertheless, a mid-twenties earnings multiple is hardly bargain basement territory. Halma has earnt it’s market admiration through relentless delivery of earnings growth. With that in mind, it’s fair to say that Marc Ronchetti has some big shoes to fill when he takes the helm next month,” said Derren Nathan.

Spring Budget 2023 Highlights

The chancellor began with the assertion the Office for Budget Responsibility now predicts the UK will avoid a technical recession. The OBR also predicts inflation will fall to 2.9% by the end of the year.

There was an emphasis on economic growth. Forecasts of slightly improved UK GDP growth painted a marginally better picture, however, the UK will still lag growth rates of other major economies.

“After this year the UK economy will grow in every single year of the forecast period: by 1.8% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025, 2.1% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027,” Jeremy Hunt said.

The budget lacked any meaningful changes on tax and the focus was on menial changes to energy prices which will not improve the cost of living crisis.

Many of the measures are designed to bring people back to work and enhance the UK’s work force.

The headline announcements include changes to childcare and the abolishment of the pension lifetime allowance.

Tax

Although the chancellor said the government desired a pro-business, pro-enterprise tax rate, he pushed on with hiking corporation tax to 25% for businesses generating more than £250,000 in profit.

This is good for small businesses but unattractive to large multinationals.

All investment will be counted as a capital allowance and will be applied to all business. This means all investment in plant and equipment can be deducted from that year’s tax.

Savings

ISA limits will be kept the same. The current limit is £20,000 for an ISA in 2022/23. The £20,000 limit has been in place since 2017/18. And all under a Conservative government.

Jobs

Older people are being enticed back into the work force with apprenticeships for over 50s, changes to pensions to keep doctors in the NHS, and reforms to childcare.

£400m will be allocated to help support workers with mental health and back pain.

Carbon capture and nuclear power schemes are designed to create jobs across the country.

Pensions

Pension tax free allowance increased from £40,000 to £60,000 and the lifetime allowance of £1m has been abolished.

Energy

The energy price cap of £2,500 for a typical household will be extended for the next three months.

The rates charged for pre-pay energy meters will be brought in line with rates for those who pay by direct debit.

Fuel duty will be frozen and the 5p cut to duty will remain.

Nuclear power will be classed as environmentally sustainable and will incentivise private investment in the sector. The chancellor announced the launch of Great British Nuclear to help bring down the price of electricity.

Education

A new £600 incentive for childminders entering the profession, and £1,200 for those joining an agency.

Every child over 9 months will receive 30 hours of free child care following a staged introduction to the scheme. This will help bolster the UK’s workforce.

Environment

£20bn will be committed to to carbon capture to help reduce net carbon emissions.

Alcohol

The duty on alcohol will be frozen.

Pints served in pubs will attract 11p lower duty than pints sold in supermarkets.

Debt

Jeremy Hunt says underlying debt will be 92.4% of GDP by next year and will continue to fall as proportion of GDP each year there after. This government’s debt forecasts should be taken with a truck load of salt.

The deficit is forecast to be 1.7% by 2027-28.

Innovation

R&D tax credits will be expanded.

To build a hub for AI in the UK the chancellor set out a £1m prize each year for ten years for innovation in the sector.

Defence

£11bn will be added to the defence budget.

Pot holes

An additional £200m will be committed to improving the road network, including potholes.

Leisure Centres

Hardly a headline grabber, but a £63m fund will be set up to save swimming pools and leisure centres.

Investment Zones

Twelve new investment zone have been announced which are supposed to follow in the foot steps of Canary Wharf.

FTSE 100 tanks with European stocks on Credit Suisse crash

European stocks were in free fall on Wednesday as fears about the health of the European banking sector rattled markets.

The FTSE 100 and the German Dax sank over 2.5% at the time of writing while the French CAC and the Italian FTSE MIB were down around 3.5%.

Just as fears about SVB’s collapse appear to subside, investors in European banks were struck down by concerns about Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse shares were down 20% after their biggest investor, the Saudi National Bank, said they would not pump more cash into the institution. Credit Suisse’s auditor had recently found problems with their financial controls and today’s developments sent the shares deep into the red.

“The fresh banking sell-off has taken hold as fears rise to the surface about the robustness of sector with the shadow of the SVB collapse still looming large. With the US banking sector downgraded to negative by Moody’s nervousness is super-high and that’s spilt over into a hot mess in Europe,” said said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

The coming hours and days will be crucial not only for Credit Suisse, but for the European banking sector and broader indices. European banks were sold heavily and many were halted to regulate trade.

“The banking rout has taken on another ominous twist with trading halted in shares of big European banks including Credit Suisse, Société Generale, BNP Paribas, Monte dei Paschi and UniCredit,” said Susannah Streeter.

FTSE 100 banks were crushed. Barclays was down in excess of 7%, as was Standard Chartered. Lloyds was down over 4%.

Prudential was the FTSE 100’s top faller after disappointing full year results were exacerbated by the banking sector rout.

AIM movers: Amtrak contract for Cordel and Yu Group profit-taking continues

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Cordel (LON: CRDL) has won an important contract with Amtrak in the US. The six-and-a-half year contract is valued at $6.7m. There will be $1m recognised in 2022-23 and $2m in 2023-24, with rest coming in the remaining time of the contract. Cordel’s technology will be used to capture and manage data on clearances of surrounding rail infrastructure. Cordel could move into profit next year. The share price jumped 23.1% to 8p.

Shares in Redx Pharma (LON: REDX) have risen by 14.9% to 38.5p on the news that its merger partner Jounce Therapeutics has received an unsolicited offer from Concentra Biosciences. Cancer treatments developer Redx Pharmarecently announced the merger with Jounce Therapeutics and the AIM company’s shareholders would own 63% of the enlarged group. They would receive 0.2105 of a Jounce share for each Redx share. Jounce would be renamed Redx Inc and retain its Nasdaq listing.

Purplebricks (LON: PURP) has received a possible offer from Strike Ltd, although it is not yet part of the formal sale process and has not entered into a non-disclosure agreement. The share price rose 10.1% to 7.595p

Reabold Resources (LON: RBD) has been approached by Kamran Sattar on behalf of an affiliate of Portillion Capital which could lead to a bid at a 10% premium to yesterday’s closing price of 0.2035p. The board believes this offer undervalues the oil and gas investment company. It recently sold the Victory gas discovery to Shell and intends to return £4m to shareholders, which would still leave it with cash. The share price is 9.46% higher at 0.2025p.

Energy supplier Yu Group (LON: YU.) continues to be hit by profit-taking since reporting 2022 figures. Year-end contracted revenues of £247m underpin the 2023 revenue forecasts. There are concerns over bad debt levels. The share price slipped 16.4% further to 510p, which means that the price is one-third lower over the past five days.  

Adtech company Tremor International (LON: TRMR) says it has had talks with its adviser Goldman Sachs, but it is not up for sale. There have been bid enquiries, though. The share price lost 11.3% to 233.2p. The share price fell 11.3% to 233.2p.

Oil and gas company Synergia Energy Ltd (LON: SYN) used $4.07m in cash during the six months to December 2022. That leaves $710,000 in cash. Since then, a convertible loan facility of £650,000 has been raised. The share price declined by 9.52% to 0.095p.

Coal miner MC Mining (LON: MCM) is considering options to raise finance for the Makhado coking coal project in Limpopo. Further finance is required for the plant to be built. This could be through selling a stake in the project or issuing shares or raising debt. The interim pre-tax loss has fallen. The uncertainty over finance has hit the share price, which is 8.42% lower.

The rise of sustainable consumption among Vietnam’s consumers, small businesses, and corporations

Van, who is originally from northern Vietnam, is one of many white-collar workers now enjoying the economic benefits of living in Ho Chi Minh City.

But outside of office hours, Van runs an online business selling locally sourced, high-quality food and groceries. With about 5,000 monthly customers and a food storage warehouse, this is no small side hustle.

“A few years ago, I learned how each part of Vietnam has its own animals and plants that are ideally suited for people living nearby,” Van shared. “Then I started selling locally sourced food in 2016 after using natural products for myself and my family for a long time.”

Her move was prescient, as tenets of sustainable consumption such as shopping locally are increasingly important to Vietnamese consumers.

The UN Environment Programme describes sustainable consumption as “decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation, increasing resource efficiency and promoting sustainable lifestyles.” Put simply: doing more and better with less.

According to KPMG Vietnam’s 2022 Customer Experience Excellence (CEE) report, 93% of customers are willing to pay more for goods from businesses and companies with strong ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) principles.

Other surveys have found that a majority of respondents believe sustainability is now a key factor when choosing a brand or product.

For example, in a recent survey of young consumers aged 18-29 in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, Indochina Research Vietnam found that 76% of urban youths said they would not buy products from a company known for environmental violations.

One out of two of these consumers also said they had bought clean or organic food products within the previous three months.

Van has seen this shift over time first-hand.

“In the past, people bought food at local markets, but in cities, supermarkets have nearly replaced them,” she said. “Then the concept of eco, organic, natural products became more popular, and people realized the differences between natural products and mass-produced products, especially food. And now when the average income has increased, more and more people want to use natural, organic food.”

Some large corporations have also embraced sustainable consumption.

“It’s considered by us to be a great opportunity not only to bring an excellent customer experience but also to realize our ESG commitments,” said Tran Phuong Ngoc Thao, Member of BOD, Head of ESG Committeeof Phu Nhuan Jewelery JSC – PNJ. “It also reflects the core value of the company, which is a dedication to customer-centricity.”

Their ESG efforts follow careful consideration of global commitments such as the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, Vietnam’s commitment to net-zero emissions at COP26, increasing investor concerns about ESG issues, and consumer decisions.

“We believe that customers deserve to experience, use, and understand the meaning behind the products they purchase,” Thaosaid. “This involves a production process that adheres to environmentally friendly standards, as well as parallel programs and efforts to educate customers on PNJ’s message.”

This includes sustainable marketing campaigns, eco-friendly packaging materials, and green shopping space experiences.

The work has paid off, with PNJ one of just 20 companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchanged earning a place on the VN Sustainability Index, and in 2022 it was named first among Vietnamese sustainable companies in non-manufacturing industries.

PNJ was also ranked second in KPMG’s 2022 CEE report, meaning it scored highly across metrics including trust, exceeding customer expectations, and understanding customer circumstances.

According to Thao, pursuing goals in line with sustainable consumption can greatly benefit a company. “One of the key advantages in PNJ’s commitment to, and development of, sustainable consumption is maintaining and upholding trust in the brand and honoring our values. The reputation of the business is a crucial advantage that needs to be leveraged to maintain the trust of customers and attract talent to the company.”

Not all consumers, however, have been convinced to make the switch to sustainable goods yet.

“A major concern remains cost, as sustainable products tend to be more expensive, as well as availability,” said Xavier Depouilly, General Manager of Indochina Research Vietnam. “Further concerns are related to the truthfulness of the promise made by producers without strong certification and guarantees, although some appear to be trusted, such as foreign organic food certifications and Vietnamese VietGap.

Nonetheless, Van believes sustainability will only become more important to consumers moving forward. “We are running out of natural resources, while environmental pollution directly endangers people’s living quality, and especially their food, water, and air,” she said. “People now realize that they need to consume more responsibly to protect their own health, as well as their children’s.”

Writing credit Michael Tatarski

Dynam Capital, the fund manager of Vietnam Holding (LSE: VNH), will be hosting the Webinar “Vietnam’s Retail Market” at 10AM UK, Thursday, 23 March, 2023 to discuss the huge opportunities for Vietnam’s retail sector with Phu Nhuan Jewelery JSC – the leading jewelry producer and retailer in Vietnam, and also one of VNH’s core holdings. Register to attend the webinar at: https://bit.ly/3ZYrOqY

Prudential disappoints in first year as Africa and Asia focused business

A disappointing first year as an Africa and Asia focused business sent Prudential shares lower on Wednesday as the company reported declines in IFRS profit after tax and new business profit for 2022.

Prudential shares were down over 6% in early trade on Wednesday. However, Prudential shares are significantly higher than their October lows after the a strong rally sparked by the China reopening.

The company pointed to resilience in the face of COVID-19 and the future opportunities in their geographies, but investors struggled to look past a slow 2022 caused by COVID-19 restrictions in Mainland China and Hong Kong.

Indeed, adjusted operating profit increased 8% on a constant currency basis (4% drop actual currency) with 9% higher APE sales. APE sales are a measure of new business not recognised by IFRS.

After demerging M&G in 2019, Prudential has shifted their strategy to focus Asian and African Insurance business an is heavily reliant on their Mainland China joint venture with CTIC for growth.

“2022 was the first full year for the Group as an Asia and Africa focused business. We have delivered a resilient performance against a backdrop of Covid-19-related disruption and broader macroeconomic volatility,” said Anil Wadhwani, Prudential CEO.

“The results reflect the advantage of our diversified business model across the Asia region, highlighted by a balanced contribution to APE sales and new business profit from Hong Kong, the Chinese Mainland and Taiwan and from South-east Asia, including Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia.”

Prudential noted a sharp rebound in activity in the first two months of 2023 and are expecting Mainland China and Hong Kong to be a integral part of their growth in 2023.

Their growth markets segment that includes India, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and its businesses in Africa showed signs of promise as adjusted operating profit rose 13% to $1,057m.

Prudential increased their dividend 9% to total 18.78 cents per share for the full year, but still yields less than 2%.

Angus Energy – will Lucan’s shareholders get lucky this year?

After having lost £111.95m in the year to end September 2022, the big question is will shareholders in the AIM-quoted Angus Energy (LON:ANGS) see any recovery in the current year?

It is an independent onshore oil and gas development company focused on advancing its portfolio of licensed UK assets.

It must be stated that £110.31m of that loss was down to a derivative position based upon the future production and calculated using forward gas prices as at the year end.

The energy hedging contract was based upon selling forward half of the production at the group’s Saltfleetby Gas Field, in East Lincolnshire. The contract, from July 2022, was for three years, based upon a price set in the Spring of 2021.

Perhaps understandably because prices in the intervening period have risen significantly, due to the Ukraine conflict. However, it only covered half of the production for that period of time.

Its Interests

The £48m capitalised group, which is due to hold its AGM at the end of this month, is focused on leveraging its expertise to advance its portfolio of UK assets as well as acquire, manage and monetise select projects.

Described as an independent onshore Energy Transition company, it has a complementary portfolio of clean gas development assets, onshore geothermal projects, and legacy oil producing fields.

The company is not only the 100% interest operator of the Saltfleetby gas field, which is in producing gas directly to the National Grid, but it also has exploration and production at its conventional oil assets of Balcombe, Lidsey and Brockham.

  • Angus Energy holds a 25% stake in and is the Operator of the Balcombe Discovery along with its partners Cuadrilla and Lucas Bolney.

The Balcombe site (PEDL 244) lies approximately 8km south-east of Crawley near the village of Balcombe.

  • The Lidsey Oil Field is located in the production licence PL241, onshore West Sussex near Bognor Regis, on the southern flank of the Weald Basin.

The company is the operator and majority partner of the licence and currently holds an 80% interest in the field.

  • The group is the operator and majority partner of production licence PL235 located in the Weald Basin, onshore UK. It currently holds a 80% interest in the Brockham Field.

The company has stated that it plans to use its geological, drilling and engineering skills to take the opportunity to repurpose onshore hydrocarbon wells for the production and storage of geothermal energy and the use of older fields for the storage of CO2 or hydrogen.

Proposed Board Reorganisation

Former Head of Exploration at BP, Richard Herbert, will be appointed Chief Executive with full control of day-to-day operations, while George Lucan is looking to take up the role of Executive Chairman focussing upon strategy and stakeholder relations.

Shareholders

There are 3,484,101,882 shares is in issue, of which Forum Energy Technologies is the largest shareholder (13.4%), others include Aleph Fin C (6.60%), Kemexon (6.39%), Knowe Properties (2.81%), Jaspal Singh (1.17%), Gneiss Energy (1.14%), PJ Tidswell (0.81%), Marr Sebastian (0.61%), Aleph Commodities (0.53%) and Adegbenga Alabi (0.38%).

Outlook

With production at Saltfleetby increasing, the company looks forward to achieving positive operational cashflow. It is confident that it will be a successful producer, with flow testing planned for late March and gas export expected from 1st April.

It will continue to explore further gas opportunities and mature its geothermal projects in the south-west of England, with the intention of not only creating shareholder value but also to address the urgent need for transition energy projects.

Conclusion

The group has the vision of becoming a significant player in the aggregation, production and storage of gas, with its current interests progressing it is now beginning to put its bricks in place in order to achieve its ambitions.

After quite a transformational year in 2022 the company now looks to be on track for delivering sales gas volume growth and profits in 2023.

Its shares, which were up to 2.72p last September, are currently just 1.375p each, from which level there should be a significant upside.

Clareti operational gearing for Gresham Technologies

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Data integrity and banking integration software provider Gresham Technologies (LON: GHT) is reaching the point where the operational gearing of the additional revenues from Clareti software will begin to show through.

Clareti can provide accurate data and information to banks and financial businesses to enable them to make better decisions. This is important for efficiency and compliance.

The fully listed company’s revenues grew from £37m to £48.7m in 2022. That was helped by currency movements and a full year contribution from post-trade processing software supplier Electra, but there was still strong organic growth. The fastest growth was in the US, but this is an international business that is growing in all regions. Pre-tax profit improved from £4m to £6.9m.

Clareti

Clareti revenues will continue to become more important. Last year, was the first time that Clareti made a profit with the other lower margin businesses previously more than covering its loss. Combining Clareti with Electra will provide additional opportunities.

Annualised recurring revenues have reached £28.1m. Management has set a target of 20% growth in Clareti revenues. It estimates that 40% of this will drop through to EBITDA.

There are more than £42m of contracted revenues for this year. Singers forecasts a 2023 pre-tax profit of £7.4m with flat earnings due the corporation tax rate rise. After that profitability is likely to accelerate with £9.6m forecast for 2024 and £12.2m in 2025.

The dividend is likely to be maintained at 0.75p a share, which would be more than ten times covered by 2023 earnings. This means that the cash pile will build up and could reach nearly £20m by the end of 2025.

At 165.5p, the shares are trading on 22 times prospective 2023 earnings, although that could fall to 14 by 2025.

Resurgent FTSE 100 lifted by banks and financials

The FTSE 100 was gaining on Tuesday as the index bounced back from the SVB-induced volatility with banks and financials driving the recovery.

The FTSE 100 was 0.8% higher at the time of writing. Despite the volatility over the past few trading sessions, the index is still positive for 2023.

Rolls Royce was the top riser, gaining over 3%, but the rally was broad with banks and financials featuring heavily among the best performers on the day.

Barclays and Lloyds were both more than 2% stronger, although they were still significantly below pre-SVB levels. A strong bounce back from US banks was helping improve sentiment and enticed bargain hunters.

“There was a sense some calm had been restored to markets after a bruising few sessions,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

US CPI

A rally in stocks progressed through the session as the index attempted to recover the past sessions losses. The steady tick higher enjoyed a boost from US CPI which came in bang in line with estimates of 6%.

The data confirmed US inflation was trending lower, but still remained at historically high levels. In the wake of SVB’s collapse, this poses a problem for the Federal Reserve who will announce their interest rates decision next week.

Some market participants will expect the Federal Reserve to push on with higher rates to validate their measures to stabilise the financial system over the weekend. This may upset equity investors looking forward to a Fed ‘pivot’

“As inflation continues to remain elevated, more work will likely be required to restore price stability. However, the recent events in the banking sector will signal to the Fed to tread cautiously when implementing additional monetary policy tightening,” said Nathaniel Casey, Investment Strategist at Evelyn Partners.

The debate between a 25bps or 50bps interest rate hike was briefly superseded by SVB, one would expect this to return with a vengeance as we approach next week’s rate decision.