AIM movers: Oxford Biodynamics premium placing

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Oxford Biodynamics (LON: OBD) is raising £9.1m via a placing at 20p a share and a further £2.95m could be raised through a one-for- 6.81644 open offer. The share price rose 22% to 18.3p. This cash will help to fund the commercial development of the EpiSwitch CiRT technology.

Abingdon Health (LON: ABDX) shares bounced back after the diagnostic tests company said a judgement in relation to judicial review proceedings against the Department of Health and Social Care is expected at 3pm. Abingdon Health is an interested party in the case. The shares have jumped 50% to 9.75p.

Richard Teatum has taken a 8.92% stake in retailer Joules Group (LON: JOUL). The share price rose 24.2% to 9.51p. He is a director of companies involved motor cars and parts retail, an advertising agency and Darrington Golf Club.

Director buying is helping the TPXimpact (LON: TPX) share price to recover a small proportion of its losses since the trading statement. Outgoing chief executive Neal Gandhi bought 49,000 shares at 40.5p and 171,000 shares at 35p each. Other directors have also been buying shares including Steve Winters who has acquired an initial 150,000 shares this week in two tranches at 36p a share and 41p a share. The shares have increase 17.3% to 47.5p.

ReNeuron (LON: RENE) says its newly named platform CustomEx has demonstrated an improved competitive profile beyond its tropism (natural affinity advantage) and other advantages. The new data shows improved exosome uptake in three tissue types and a higher level of siRNA delivery versus the rival HEK cell-generated exosomes. The share price is 5.77% higher at 27.5p, having been 28.5p earlier. They have fallen by two-thirds this year.

There has been a mineral resource upgrade at the Amapa iron project in Brazil, even so 27% shareholder Cadence Minerals (LON: KDR) is the worst performer on the day with a 13.5% decline. The updated resource at Amapa is 276Mt grading 38.33% Fe, up from 177Mt. The measured resource is 55Mt grading 39.26% Fe.  

Liontrust has disposed of its 10.1% stake in musicMagpie (LON: MMAG) during the past week. The share price fell a further 8.51% to 12.9p.

Tertiary Minerals (LON: TYM) has completed the sale of its royalty interests in the Kaaresselkä and Kiekerömaa properties in Finland to Aurion Resources Ltd. Tertiary Minerals has received C$200,000 in cash and 83,333 shares in Aurion. The Tertiary Minerals share price was 5.77% lower at 0.245p.

FTSE 100 outperforms US and European equities after Non-Farm Payrolls

September’s Non-Farm Payrolls provided a hawkish twist on Friday as investors accessed the health of the US jobs market and the impact on the trajectory of interest rate hikes.

The FTSE 100 had been tentatively higher before the jobs number a turned negative shortly after the release, but outperformed US and European stocks.

US jobs data revealed 263,000 increase in jobs in September versus economist estimates of 255,000 and a prior number of 315,000.

The Non Farm Payrolls will present the Fed with a major headache as they are forced to choose between supporting a slowing jobs market and combating soaring inflation.

Early indications are markets feel the jobs data will not be enough to cause a Fed ‘pivot’ away from interest hikes in the short-term. There are expectations the Fed will hike 75 bps at their next meeting.

Price action in the dollar drove the initial reaction as GBP/USD dipping to 1.1123. The stronger dollar in the run up to the data has taken cable down from 1.1500 just three trading sessions ago.

The jobs reading all but confirmed additional rate hikes and equity markets reacted by immediately selling equities. US futures extended declines with the NASDAQ down 1.2% and S&P 500 off 0.5%.

The weaker pound provide some support for the FTSE 100 as it outperformed US and European indices, slipping 0.3% to 6,970 at the time of wiring.

A close above 7,000 would have been a major psychological boost to investors in UK equities in the short-term.

The FTSE 100 has rebounded from the worst levels since the government’s mini-budget, but is still about 5% down from recent highs. Defensive names and a leading towards UK banks benefitting from higher rates has supported the index, as have overseas earners enjoying a weaker pound.

UK house prices fractionally decline according to Halifax

Average UK house prices fell 0.1% to £293,835 in September as the housing market showed further signs of cooling, albeit marginal.

“The average UK house price experienced a slight fall in September (-0.1%), the second marginal decrease over the past three months. The cost of a typical home edged down a little to £293,835 from the previous month’s record high (£293,992). The pace of annual growth also slowed for the third month in a row, to +9.9% from +11.4%, returning to single-digits for the first time since January,” said Kim Kinnaird, Director, Halifax Mortgages.

However small September’s decline was, recent economic developments point to further house price declines in the near term. The new Uk government’s shambolic fiscal package sent UK gilts soaring and ravaged the UK mortgage market. New fixed rate deals are currently around 6%, a huge jump for those coming to the end of their current terms.

The Bank of England is set to make another significant increase to the base rate at their next meeting.

“House prices fell slightly last month, reflecting the fact that demand was already falling earlier this summer – well before the mini-budget tipped the mortgage market into chaos. Once September’s rate hikes feed through into sales figures in the coming months, the risks of more significant house price falls will build,” said Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown

“It’s not a big month-on-month fall, but it’s the second in three months, and the quarter has seen the slowest growth in a year, so we’re definitely seeing a cooling in the market. September prices reflect decisions in June, when estate agents were reporting lower demand for the second consecutive month, and sales were slowing. In the RICS residential market report at the time, there were plenty of comments from agents who saw buyers start to drift away, and those who remained were more cautious.”

Wetherspoons investors raise a toast to improving revenues

Wetherspoons investors will be happy with a welcome increase in revenue in the 9 weeks to 2 October 2022 despite disappointing preliminary full year results.

Revenue in the 9 week period rose 10.1% compared to the same period a year prior. However, rising costs and supply chain issues saw the pub chain lose £30m over the full year.

Tim Martin, the Chairman of J D Wetherspoon plc, said: “previously reported increases in labour and repair costs and the potentially adverse effects of rises in interest rates and energy costs on the economy, firm predictions are hard to make.”

COVID Lockdowns

Wetherspoons investors have become accustomed to Mr Martin’s political punditry in market updates, and the Chairman did not disappoint in today’s release.

He took the opportunity to attribute the poor performance to the UK Government’s COVID policy and the release included references to studies that showed lockdowns did not prevent excess deaths.

Nonetheless, while earnings for the past year were impacted by lockdown, markets choose to look to recent positivity and JD  Wetherspoon shares were 12% higher at the time of writing.

“The results themselves yielded few surprises and it is encouraging to see a good uplift in sales so far in the first ten weeks of the current financial year. However, the question is how long this can go on for. Without doubt pubgoers have bigger hits to come to their wallet, be it from energy costs or increased mortgage payments,” said Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“JD Wetherspoon has its own cost challenges to face particularly when it comes to staff and maintaining the quality of its estate. With that in mind it is hard to see how further lockdowns are really the most tangible threat, and don’t anticipate a return to dividends any time soon given that net debt is hovering at close to £0.9m.”

Argo Blockchain shares dump in scramble to raise capital

Argo Blockchain shares sank on Friday as the Bitcoin miner released ‘strategic actions’ to strengthen the balance sheet as the company faced the challenges of higher power costs and low crypocurrency prices.

In a broad range of measures, Argo Blockchain appeared to be trying to raise capital in anyway they could, including selling off their mining machines, while continuing to host them at their Helios facility in Dickens County, Texas. Argo had previously announced a hosting agreement in August that gave Argo 25% of the net profits generated from the Bitcoin mined by the hosted mining machines.

Argo said they had also received a letter of intent from a strategic partners for a share subscription totalling £24m to help fund working capital and general corporate activities. The partner will have the right to appoint two non-exec directors to the board.

The subscription is limited to the partner meaning no other party will be involved in the capital raise.

Argo Blockchain shares sank 14% on the news to trade at 29p and lowest intraday levels since 2020.

“We have worked relentlessly to create and execute on a strategy that will support our objective of sustainable growth for the Company,” said Peter Wall, Chief Executive at Argo Blockchain.

“We also understand the importance of maintaining flexibility in our approach in order to respond swiftly to external factors. We are glad to have a strong relationship with our lender NYDIG, who has been working with us to provide flexibility and to help ensure the long term success of the Company.”

Argo Blockchain mined 235 Bitcoin or Bitcoin Equivalents in August and held 1,098 Bitcoin.

Eckoh – encouraging update news could engender enthusiasm for this group’s shares

Ahead of its Capital Markets Day next Tuesday, Eckoh (LON:ECK) the Hemel Hempstead-based provider of customer engagement security solutions, has updated its investors upon its first half sales.

To the end of September, the group enjoyed a strong upward momentum, driven mainly by renewed activity in its US markets.

Big improvement in sales

Order levels at over £17m are believed to be some 50% better than at this time last year.

The company is stating that it has made good progress in its strategy to pursue major opportunities for large blue-chip organisations, cross-sell from a broader product suite and continue the trend towards cloud adoption and more international mandates.  

International appeal for its services

Eckoh is increasingly focusing on attractive sectors which are suited to its model, technology, and product suite. Its Customer Engagement Security Solutions enable enquiries and transactions to be performed on whatever device the customer chooses, allowing organisations to increase efficiency, lower operational costs and provide a true omnichannel experience.

From its offices in both the UK and the US, it is a global provider to an international client base. It has a large portfolio of clients across a broad range of vertical markets and includes government departments, telecoms providers, retailers, utility providers and financial services organisations.

Analyst Opinion – shares are a Buy

Kevin Ashton and fellow analysts at Singer Capital Markets are enthusiastically encouraging investors to attend the Eckoh Capital Markets Day on Tuesday 11th October.

They are currently rating the group’s shares as a Buy having fixed a one-year Target Price of 92p on the group’s shares.

For the current year to end March 2023 they estimate sales of £40.0m (£31.8m), adjusted pre-tax profits of 7.6m (£5.2m) generating earnings of 2.0p (1.6p) and a dividend of 0.70p (0.61p) per share.

For next year they foresee £43.2m revenues, £8.3m profits, 2.0p earnings and a dividend of 0.80p per share.

Conclusion – a break above 50p very soon

This group’s brokers are very keen upon its shares.

They were as high as 64p in December last year, since when they have drifted back to a recent low of 37p a month ago.

Now at 44p these shares do have a growing following and, hopefully, the Capital Markets Day will impart enough information and enthusiasm as its brokers portray.

A break above 50p looks very achievable in the near-term.

OPEC+ cuts production by 2m barrels raising tensions with Biden

OPEC+ committed to a 2 million barrels per day production cut and increased tensions with the US and President Biden who perceives the move by OPEC to be an alignment with Russia.

Much of the west has been targeting Russia with sanctions and the increasing price favours Putin. Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia, Putin’s administration still earns huge revenues from oil and higher prices will boost this.

Oil prices have rallied 10% in the run up to the OPEC+ decision and the cut promises to keep prices elevated in the short-term.

Biden will also be infuriated at the timing of the cut and the impact on US consumers who had been enjoying lower prices at the pump in recent months. The US will hold mid-term elections in November and a sudden jump in petrol price will damage Biden’s appeal.

“The President is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” the White House said.

Biden’s response

The move by OPEC+ is seen as a political one and there is speculation Biden will retaliate with the easing of sanctions on Venezuela to allow oil to flow to Europe and the US.

“The US may attempt to reach a deal with Venezuela to restore some of its production and increase supply to the market. Despite this, the situation remains uncertain and any major developments could lead to a noticeable increase in volatility on the oil market,” said Walid Koudmani, chief market analyst at financial brokerage XTB.

Biden had been releasing huge amount of the US strategic petroleum reserve to help combat the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The amount was supposed to total 180m barrels by the end of October, however, there are now reports an additional 10m will be released in November.

AIM movers: AMTE Power production deal and ex-dividends

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Battery cells developer AMTE Power (LON: AMTE) has signed a framework deal with the UK Battery Industrialisation Centre to produce up to 60,000 Ultra High Power cells annually. The cells are fast charging and have high power delivery. Production commences in three months and the cells will be used for in-vehicle trials by potential customers – the initial focus is high performance electric vehicles – ahead of the opening of AMTE’s own factory in Dundee in a few years. The shares are 14.6% higher at 74.5p, down from the March 2021 placing price of 175p.

Some positive news from Victorian Plumbing (LON: VIC) with the outcome for the year to September better than previously downgraded expectations. Full year revenues were flat after growth in the second half. Gross margins are recovering. There is £43m in the bank. Halved pre-tax profit of £15m was previously expected. The results will be published on 6 December. The shares rose 15.5% to 41.1p. The June 2021 placing price was 262p.

Seeing Machines (LON: SEE) has an exclusive collaboration deal with Magna International for rear view mirror and occupant monitoring applications in vehicles. Magan is paying $17.5m in cash ($10m immediately and $7.5m over two years) and investing $47.5m via a convertible note, which is convertible at 11p a share. The share price rose 11.1% to 6.445p. This cash provides important funding as Seeing Machines continues to make a loss, albeit one that is reducing.

finnCap has upgraded its target price for Parkmead Group (LON: PMG) from 164p a share to 194p a share following the growth of its renewable generation assets and an 83% increase in the 2022-23 EBITDA forecast to £18.6m. The share price improved by 12.8% to 60p. The upgrade is based on a higher gas price in the Netherlands as well as a doubled profit contribution from the Kempstone Hill Wind Farm. Parkmead is expanding its Pitreadie renewable generation project.

Mobile content and data company Mobile Streams (LON: MOS) launched a placing and subscription raising £1.2m at 0.18p a share, which was a one-third discount to the market price. The shares have fallen 29.6% to 0.19p. There is potential to raise up to £200,000 more through a broker option. The new shares come with warrants exercisable at 0.3p each. Directors plan to subscribe for nearly 29 million shares.

X-ray imaging technology developer Image Scan (LON: IGE) says that full year revenues will be below expectations. There were delays in completing contracts and problems sourcing components. WH Ireland has cut its 2021-22 forecast revenues from £2.5m to £2m, while the loss has been raised from £300,000 to £400,000. A small profit is anticipated for 2022-23. The share price slumped 22.2% to 1.05p.

Retailer and financial services provider N Brown Group (LON: BWNG) reported a 5% decline in interim revenues and an 82% slump in underlying pre-tax profit to £4.3m. Some price increases have been made to offset rising costs. The business is continuing its move to focus on digital and a new Jacamo site will be launched next year. Product revenues continue to decline. The share price fell 11.9% to 21.425p. N Brown raised £100m at 57p a share prior to moving from the Main Market to AIM in December 2020.

Yesterday, Europa Metals (LON: EUZ) announced a $6m farm-in for the Toral zinc lead project in Spain. Denarius Metal Corp can earn up to 80% of the project. The first phase involves the spending of $4m to earn 51%, followed by a delivery of a prefeasibility study and the payment of $2m to take the stake to 80%.  The share price had risen from 2.925p to 3.8p, but there has been profit-taking today and it has slipped back 9.2% to 3.45p.

Technology investment company Tern (LON: TERN) has raised £1.6m at 7.5p a share. The cash will enable Tern to invest more in its current portfolio companies. The share price fell 9.1% to 7.5p.

Ex-dividends

Andrews Sykes (LON: ASY) is paying a special dividend of 16.6p a share and an interim dividend of 11.9p a share, while the share price fell 10p to 515p.

Begbies Traynor (LON: BEG) is paying a final dividend of 2.4p a share and the share price edged up 0.1p to 136.5p.

Christie Group (LON: CTG) is paying an interim dividend of 1.25p a share and the share price is unchanged at 111.5p.

Curtis Banks Group (LON: CBP) is paying an interim dividend of 2.5p a share and the share price has risen by 4.5p to 275p.

D4T4 Solutions (LON: D4T4) is paying a special dividend of 12.5p a share and the share price is 14p higher at 256.5p.

EMIS Group (LON: EMIS) is paying an interim dividend of 17.6p a share and the share price is 23p lower at 1887p.

Frenkel Topping (LON: FEN) is paying a final dividend of 1.02p a share and the share price is unchanged at 59.5p.

HSS Hire (LON: HSS) is paying an interim dividend of 0.17p a share and the share price is 0.625p higher at 13.125p.

Ingenta (LON: ING) is paying an interim dividend of 1.2p a share and the share price is unchanged at 109.5p.

Johnson Service Group (LON: JSG) is paying an interim dividend of 0.8p a share and the share price edged up 0.2p to 88.3p.

Judges Scientific (LON: JDG) is paying an interim dividend of 22p a share and the share price fell 40p to 7300p.

K3 Capital Group (LON: K3C) is paying a final dividend of 8.1p a share and the share price declined by 7.5p to 265p.

Keywords Studios (LON: KWS) is paying an interim dividend of 0.77p a share and the share price is 39p higher at 2405p.

Learning Technologies Group (LON: LTG) is paying an interim dividend of 0.45p a share and the share price is 1.8p lower at 112.3p.

Mortgage Advice Bureau (LON: MAB1) is paying an interim dividend of 13.4p a share and the share price rose 14p to 580p.

Panther Securities (LON: PNS) is paying an interim dividend of 6p a share and the share price is unchanged at 300p.

Personal Group Holdings (LON: PGH) is paying an interim dividend of 5.3p a share and the share price is down 4.5p to 187p.

Real Estate Investors (LON: RLE) is paying a quarterly dividend of 0.81p a share and the share price is unchanged at 32.5p.

Skillcast (LON: SKL) is paying an interim dividend of 0.17p a share and the share price is unchanged at 21.5p.

Smart Metering Systems (LON: SMS) is paying a dividend of 7.56p a share and the share price rose 2p to 823p.

Strix (LON: KETL) is paying an interim dividend of 2.75p a share and the share price fell 2.5p to 117.9p.

Tandem Group (LON: TND) is paying an interim dividend of 3.43p a share and the share price is 10p higher at 250p.

TPXimpact (LON: TPX) is paying a final dividend of 0.6p a share and the share price recovered 4p to 40.5p after recent sharp declines.

FTSE 100 dips on oil price threat to global economy

The FTSE 100 retreated on Thursday in a second day of declines as investors digested the impact of OPEC’s decision to cut production by 2 million barrels.

Oil prices had declined steadily in recent months which has led to lower prices at the pump – a welcome saving as interest rates rise and household energy rates soar.

However, OPEC’s move to cut production will once again hurt consumers, just as winter heating bills start to erode household budgets.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.7% at 7,001 at the time of writing.

“With the oil price ratcheting back up there is also going to be more pain at the pumps to come, especially with fresh weakness in sterling. Brent crude is still hovering around $93, up around 10% in a week after OPEC+ countries agreed a cut in production at top of the range expected, by 2 million barrels of oil per day,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Higher oil prices might be inducing a severe inflation headache for many countries around the world, but they have been a bonanza for oil producers and they want the good times to continue to roll. Saudi Arabia has justified the cut because of weakening demand in the global economy brought on the continual ramp up in interest rates.”

Yet there were signs this ‘bonanza’ was coming to end on Thursday with Shell signalling an end to extraordinary profits.

Shell was the biggest drag on the index following a revision to their outlook due falling refining margins. Having enjoyed the higher price of oil earlier this year, the oil major said indicative refining margins would be $15/bbl in Q3, compared to $28/bbl in Q2 2022 due to falling oil prices through the summer.

Shell shares fell 4.7% and BP dropped 1.6% in sympathy.

Imperial Brands

Imperial Brands was the FTSE 100’s top gainer, adding 3.6% after the tobacco and vaping company said they would return £2.3bn to shareholders through dividends and buybacks as they deliver on their five-year plan.

“Imperial Brands’ update would give you the impression nothing bad is happening in the world. The cigarette and vaping company has so much spare cash sloshing around that it is going to return £2.3 billion to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. That’s 13% of its market value, which is astonishing,” said AJ Bell investment director, Russ Mould.

US jobs data

Markets will receive the latest instalment of US jobs data tomorrow and a signal of what the Federal Reserve may do next to bring soaring inflation under control.

Economists polled by Reuters expect 250,000 jobs to be added in September.

Shell shares fall as bumper refining margins come to an end

Shell shares fell on Thursday as the oil and gas giant released an outlook update that highlighted falling refining margins due to lower oil prices.

Shell said they were revising their indicative refining margin to $15/bbl, down from $28/bbl in Q2 2022. This is expected to cause $1.0bn to $1.4bn reduction in Q3 adjusted EBITDA.

Shell shares fell over 4% in the immediate reaction on Thursday.

“Shell enjoyed record profits in the first and second quarter spurred by a surge in underlying oil and gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, since June, oil has posted four consecutive months of declines, with Brent crude down by around 25% even after this week’s countertrend rally,” said Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor.

Today’s news of OPEC’s 2 million barrel production cut has supported oil prices but its difficult to see a scenario where oil rallies to 52-week highs without an additional shock to global supply.

Indeed, a slowing global economy may act as a cap on oil prices in the coming months.

Renewable Energy

While refining margins are set to fall, Shell indicated Renewable Energy adjusted earnings could be between a $300m loss and $300m profit.

With the appointment of the new CEO and his background in clean energy, investors will be watching how this segment performs as the bumper period for fossil fuels comes to an end.

Shell has invested in a range of clean energy projects in recent years and the revenue generation capabilities of these assets will be used to gauge the success of Shell’s energy transition strategy.

Shell is set to release Q3 results 27th October 2022.