Royal Mail to strike in August and September as pay negotiations crumble

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Royal Mail workers are set to strike on 26 August, 31 August, 8 September and 9 September in a protest against employee salaries after pay negotiations between executives and postal workers crumbled.

Approximately 115,000 Royal Mail staff will be walking as part of a massive wave of industrial action organised by the Communication Workers Union (CWU), marking the largest strike of the summer so far.

“After more than three months of talks, the CWU have failed to engage in any meaningful discussion on the changes we need to modernise, or to come up with alternative ideas,” said Royal Mail operations director Ricky McAulay.

“The CWU rejected our offer worth up to 5.5% for CWU grade colleagues, the biggest increase we have offered for many years.”

The pay rise is supposedly made up of a 2% pay rise backdated to 1 April 2022, and an additional 3.5% increase linked to a selection of terms and conditions, alongside an “above and beyond” bonus.

The CWU said Royal Mail failed to offer a 5.5% pay rise, and instead approved a 2% increase without staff agreement.

The Union further claimed Royal Mail had offered an additional 1.5% pay rise “based on signed away our terms and conditions.”

Inflation has soared in recent months to a 40-year high of 9.4%, and is currently on track to reach 13% in October this year.

The spiking cost of living has seen many sectors struck by a real terms pay cut, leaving workers struggling to cope with soaring prices and fighting to scrape together savings as a difficult winter looms on the horizon.

Royal Mail “Materially loss-making” in FY 2022-2023

The Royal Mail argued a real terms pay rise is out of its budget due to heavy company losses of £1 million per day.

Royal Mail issued a statement today confirming that if the strike went ahead, the group would be “materially loss making” in FY 2022-2023.

“In a business that is currently losing £1 million pounds a day, we can only fund this offer by agreeing the changes that will pay for it,” said Royal Mail.

“The CWU rejected [our] offer, worth up to 5.5%, which would add around £230 million to Royal Mail annual people costs at a time when the business is already loss making – in the Q1 trading update published on 20 July, Royal Mail announced it was losing a million pounds a day and the proposed pay deal adds more than half a million pounds a day to that figure.”

“This can only be paid for with meaningful business change. The CWU has balloted its members on pay, which returned a majority in favour of industrial action.”

Impact of current market conditions on the future of VC with SuperSeed

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to welcome SuperSeed VC to the Podcast for a comprehensive discussion around venture capital, key trends and the impact of any economic downturn on private tech companies.

We were joined by SuperSeed Managing Partner, Mads Jensen, and Partner, Dan Bowyer.

SuperSeed focus on revenue generating tech companies driven by strong founders. We explore what went wrong in many VC deals during the pandemic and how SuperSeed avoided them. Mads highlights the importance of positive cashflows during leaner times and points to the favourable VC valuations achievable during economic downturns.

We do, however, touch on the economic conditions and slight improvements that mean we could be moving towards the beginning of the end of economic strife. This raises the question of a lag in public in private markets and we talk to how investors can navigate this.

Mads and Dan explore the key attributes they look for in companies as well as the key tech trends they are monitoring.

Find out more about about SuperSeed on their website here.

Explore SuperSeed’s partnership with Seedrs here.

TUI misses return to profit on €75m travel disruption costs

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TUI shares slid 1.4% to 141.3p in early morning trading on Wednesday, following a pre-tax loss of €27 million in Q3 2022 from a loss of €669.8 million in Q3 2021.

However, TUI reported a revenue growth to €4.4 billion in Q3 2022 against €649.7 year-on-year, linked to rising travel and tourism activity following the pandemic.

The travel company mentioned an operating profit of €48 million from a significant loss the last year.

“TUI has had what can only be described as a strong third quarter – crucially, forward bookings for the final dregs of the summer season are looking well placed,” said Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst Sophie Lund-Yates.

“The drains on cash when you have both planes and hotels to fill are enormous, so this about-change couldn’t have come fast enough for the group.”

However, TUI reported additional costs of €75 million on the back of flight disruption caused by wider aviation sector chaos.

“The bottom line has hit some further turbulence thanks to hefty costs associated with airport disruption, but there’s little the group can do about wider aviation industry labour shortages,” said Lund-Yates.

TUI confirmed its summer was on-track to meet capacity close to pre-Covid levels.

However, the company noted a net debt of €3.3 billion, providing a substantial hurdle to tackle in the coming year.

“The group’s hauling around an eye-watering debt pile when looked at in comparison to earnings, and bringing that down is a priority,” said Lund-Yates.

“Looking ahead, TUI needs to be careful it gets the balance right between addressing liquidity risk while spending enough to keep its competitive edge.”

“A lot of holiday makers aren’t especially brand-loyal and simply want the best deal – a fickle client base in the current cost-of-living environment makes market-share growth potentially difficult.”

Nightcap – Trading Update declares that the challenging macro environment has resulted in more sites being available on very attractive terms

Sarah Willingham is an ambitious and very hospitable lady – she wants to offer drinks across the country.

She was one of the Dragon’s Den entrepreneurs and is a serial investor. 

But, more importantly, she is the Chief Executive of the Nightcap (LON:NGHT) group, which last week announced a Trading Update for the year to 3 July.

Defined strategy

Her aim is to build up the UK’s leading bar group and, with such determination and ability, she is progressing at quite a pace.

The company owns and operates a number of brands, taking in the London Cocktail Club, the Adventure Bar group, and Barrio Familia, each with various venue names.

The group, which floated on AIM in January last year in a £4m fund raising, valuing it at £13.5m, has already seen quite an advance in its strategy, through a number of acquisitions and new openings.

Removal of Russian Vodka

In a very canny and nationalistic move in early March this year, Nightcap removed Russian Vodka from all of its then 27 venues, then replacing Ukrainian Vodka across its entire estate.

Trading Update 

The year to 3 July has seen the group expand significantly, it is now up to an estate of 34 venues across the country, following the launch of its Nightcap Bar Academy and the Bristol opening of its Tonight Josephine brand.

It has not only been building up organically by way of a number of new openings, but also through a number of very sensible and strategic acquisitions.

It currently has another 22 premises under offer or in legal negotiations for all of its various brands.

It is a massive pointer to the expanding group’s scalability, which helps to get better margins but also gains a very useful supply edge.

That shows through from the Update with a good fourth quarter’s trading.

Group revenues for the year are expected to rise to £35.9m, comparing very well with the figure of just £6.0m in 2021, but that was when it was suffering from Covid closures.

As for its adjusted EBITDA for the year it is expected to come up to market expectations and that is despite restricted trade over the very important Christmas period and suffering from the recent transport strikes.

Group cash was £6.1m, with bank debt of £5.5m of which £0.9m is due to be repaid during the current trading year to July 2023.

The Group has strengthened its focus on offering good times and good value to its resilient Millennial customer base.

It is also backed by an unparalleled property pipeline giving it confidence in its management’s decision to continue to invest in growth during FY2023.

So, what does Sarah say?

Sarah Willingham, CEO, stated that:

“We are absolutely delighted with these results. Nightcap is going from strength to strength and I am so proud of the business that we are building. Finishing the year with 31 sites, with a number of openings to follow and a significant new site pipeline is a great achievement. Despite recent transport strikes and significant Covid-19 interruptions during the important 2021 Christmas period we have managed to deliver against our expectations thanks to our wonderful teams and loyal customers.

“Strong growth delivered by exceptional people with a real desire to continue to build a leading business in the bar sector in the UK, is setting us up well for another year of significant growth as we continue to bring on board and open more new sites in prime locations across the country.

“We always thought we would have a short window to sign and open the best sites across the UK when we were admitted to AIM last year, but the challenging macro environment has resulted in more sites being available on very attractive terms and with a simple to replicate business model across four distinctive brands, all led by motivated and engaged managements teams, serving a customer base with continued high disposable income, we feel confident about the year ahead despite the economic pressures facing the UK today. 

“We are well placed to mitigate inflationary rises as we grow and increase our buying power and we will continue to throw the best parties offering exceptional quality and value, ensuring that our lovely customers can still enjoy their great nights out.”

Market expectations

For the current year to end June 2023 analyst Matt Butlin at Allenby Capital, the group’s broker, had pencilled in £54.39m revenues, £5.27m profits and 2.53p of earnings per share.

For the 2023/2024 year the estimates are for £70.8m revenues, £7.53m profits and 3.40p of earnings per share.

Reaction to the Update

The shares have yet to react to the positive Trading Update, but they will do so in due course.

They touched 35.5p in April last year but have since been down to 13.65p in mid-March this year.

Now at 14.5p that puts the shares of this £29m market capitalised hospitality group out on an estimated current year 5.73 times ratio.

But for the coming year they trade on a mere 4.26 times price-to-earnings ratio.

That makes them look highly attractive and capable of at least a 50% rise within the year and, even then, they would look cheap.

Thank you Sarah – we will drink to that – cheers.

Prudential profits fall on market volatility as Asia lockdowns impact margins

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Prudential shares fell 1% to 978.6p in early morning trading on Wednesday, after the insurance giant reported a 90% tumble in IFRS post-tax profit from continuing operations to $106 million in HY1 2022 against $1 billion the last year.

The Asia-focused insurer attributed its post-tax profit drop to high market volatility, resulting in lower equity levels, rising government bond yields and widening corporate bond spreads.

Prudential also mentioned a 5% slide in new business from continuing operations to $1 billion from $1.1 billion, with the benefit of higher APE sales offset by higher interest rates, lower Hong Kong sales, where margins have traditionally been higher, and an increase in bancassurance sales.

However, the group confirmed a 12% growth in operating free surplus generated from continuing operations to $1.2 billion compared to $1.1 billion.

Prudential noted an 8% climb in adjusted operating profit from continuing operations to $1.6 billion against $1.5 billion in the previous year, driven by a 6% rise in life and asset management operating profit and a 32% decline in central costs.

FY 2022 guidance

The insurance firm said its major markets were starting to regain stability, however it warned operating conditions would remain challenging over FY 2022.

Prudential confirmed it had sufficient financial resilience to continue its business operations across Asia and Africa.

“Our resilient operational performance demonstrates the strength of our well positioned and well diversified franchise across the Asia region, driven by our multi-channel, digitally enhanced distribution platform,” said Prudential CEO Mark FitzPatrick.

Dividend

The group recommended a HY1 2022 dividend of 5.7c, equating to one-third of Prudential’s FY 2021 payout of 17.2c.

Zotefoams continues recovery

Investors reacted positively to better than expected interim figures from foams manufacturer Zotefoams (LON: ZTF) with volumes and revenues growing. This led to an upgrade of pre-tax profit forecasts.
Price increases and an additional 4% of volume meant that interim revenues were 23% ahead at £59m. There was also help from currency movements. Polyolefin foam sales increased by 26%, although this division was held back by limited availability of certain additives for higher margin products. High performance foam sales were 21% higher, with strong growth in footwear, and the main profit improvem...

US President Biden signs CHIPS & Science Act in effort to boost US semiconductor production

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US President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law on Tuesday, providing $52 billion in funding for the country’s semiconductor manufacturing industry in an effort to boost national production.

The Act is set to unlock $280 billion in funding to enhance US technology and manufacturing, as the country seeks to build its sector to compete against China.

The CHIPS and Science Act marked a rare occasion of bipartisan cooperation, with Democrats and Republicans throwing their hats into the ring to support US tech production.

The US has seen its slice of the semiconductor pie shrink dramatically over recent decades, with manufacturing capacity falling from 37% to 12%, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

Meanwhile, an estimated 75% of global production capacity is based in Asia.

The funding is set to be spread across five years, starting with $19 billion this year and $5 billion earmarked for 2026.

Biden confirmed the bill had also reserved $200 billion in funding for national security and intelligence sectors, including quantum computing and artificial intelligence.

“Today I’m signing into law the CHIPS and Science Act. A once in a generation investment in America itself. A law that the American people can be proud of,” said Biden.

Coca-Cola HBC to acquire super-premium mixer brand Three Cents for €45m

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Coca-Cola HBC’s wholly-owned subsidiary CC Beverages Holdings II B.V. announced its agreed acquisition of ESM Effervescent Sodas Management Ltd. for €45 million on Tuesday.

The bottling company is set to acquire the firm from IDEAL Holdings subsidiary S.I.C.C Holding Limited, with the transaction scheduled to close in HY2 2022.

Coca-Cola HBC said its acquisition targeted S.I.C.C-owned super-premium mixer brand Three Cents, which produces artisanal beverages without preservatives or artificial colourings.

The group commented the super-premium sparkling beverage and mixer category represented a significant growth opportunity, and marked an important step in the company’s 24/7 beverage partner strategy.

The acquisition will join Coca-Cola HBC’s existing portfolio brands, including Schweppes and Kinley.

Coca-Cola HBC confirmed the Three Cents founding team, including George Bagos, Dimitris Dafopoulos, George Tsirikos and Vassilis Kalantzis, would remain with the brand to promote the company and provide “leadership and vision.”

Coca-Cola HBC shares fell 0.6% to 1,944 in late afternoon trading on Tuesday.

Energy bills to exceed £4,200 in January

Energy bills are set to exceed £4,200 in January 2023, according to a report by Cornwall Insight.

The institute said its forecasts for the January Default Tariff Cap had grown by over £650, representing a price tag of approximately £4,266 for the average UK household.

The bone-chilling shift represents a large step from previous estimations of £2,800 for this year.

Prices for October 2022 were also slated to rise by over £300, bringing the new average bill to £3,582.

Oil prices have been driven higher as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, leading to a mass boycott of Russian gas supplies and high price inflation across the market.

Brent Crude saw heights of almost $130 per barrel in March, and prices have remained high since February, sparking soaring prices and placing crushing pressure on households across the UK.

Cornwall Insight explained the rationale behind its new estimations included an increase in wholesale market forecasts, and an alteration in Ofgem’s calculation methodology.

Ofgem confirmed recently it would be revising prices every three months instead of every six months.

The organisation warned against making any concrete predictions for the coming year at the current time, and said wholesale prices were moving at too fast a speed to be pinned to a reliable forecast.

“We cannot stop others from making predictions but we would ask that extreme caution is applied to any predictions for the price cap in January or beyond,” said Ofgem in a statement.

FTSE 100 heavy weights support index after soft corporate results

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The FTSE 100 traded sideways in Tuesday as the impact of soft corporate updates were offset by stronger commodities companies and those with a focus on China.

Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP and Shell gained helping the FTSE 100 outperform European peers on the day.

The market was flat at 7,483.8, despite HY1 2022 updates from Abrdn, Legal & General, and IHG released today.

Abrdn

Abrdn sank to the bottom of the index, falling 5.3% to 163.7p after the firm swung to a £320 million pre-tax loss compared to a £113 million profit in HY1.

The company attributed its poor results to £313 million in losses from the change in value of its significant investments in the interim period.

Abrdn net outflows ballooned to £35.9 billion from £5.6 billion the year before, and its adjusted operating profit fell 28% to £115 million as a result of market movements.

“The half year Group results largely reflect the challenging global economic environment and market turbulence,” said Abrdn CEO Stephen Bird.

IHG

Intercontinental Hotels Group shares fell 1.5% to 4,938.5p despite a soaring 52% climb in revenue to $1.7 billion from $1.1 billion in HY1 2022.

The hotels group announced a 162% operating surge to $361 million against $136 million the last year, with significant improvements in trading across most regions.

However, it confirmed a 39% fall in Greater China revenue to $36 million from $59 million due to Covid-19 travel restrictions and lockdowns.

Intercontinental Hotels Group also announced a $500 million share buyback and a resumed dividend payout of 43.9¢ per share.

Legal & General shares dipped 0.5% to 270p following a report of modest post-tax profit growth to £1.1 billion in HY1 against £1 billion the last year, with an 8% operating profit rise to £1.1 billion compared to £1 billion.

The group confirmed a 5% dividend hike to 5.4p from 5.1p the year before.

Legal & General said all four of its sectors were well-positioned to capitalise on structural market opportunities and to deliver profitable growth across the medium-to-long term, notwithstanding market volatility.

Oil prices rise

Oil prices picked up again after a fall to $93 per barrel on Monday, with Brent Crude rising to $97 and sparking a resurgence in the FTSE 100 oil giants.

Shell shares gained 1.7% to 2,199p and BP shares climbed 1.9% to 424.2p.