The Budget: a winner for the UK stock market? 

Ben Ritchie and Rebecca Maclean, Co-managers, Dunedin Income Growth Investment Trust plc 

In the March budget, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt brought out a series of measures designed to revive the flagging fortunes of the UK stock market. He sought to draw investors back with a UK ISA, and measures for institutional investors. The broad principle of looking to bring in additional capital to UK plc is welcome. However, the policies remain under consultation and their effectiveness will depend on how they are constructed. 

Rather than fundamental changes to the ISA system, the Chancellor chose to add £5,000 to the existing allowance for investing in UK assets. There is still debate over which assets will qualify – will it just be UK-listed assets? Or will they need to have the bulk of their operations in the UK as well? Will investment trusts be included? This could prove important.  

The ISA change is limited, but it is a small step to encourage people to invest in equities and bonds rather than residential property. A lack of savings results in a lack of investment. There is also a productivity problem and the UK needs to build critical physical and intellectual infrastructure. Higher investment is going to be critical to delivering on both those aspects, and this is a modest statement of intent.   

The Chancellor also introduced disclosure rules for UK pension funds on their holding of UK assets. To some extent, his hands were tied: the performance of UK equities compared to many overseas markets has been disappointing. Pension funds have a fiduciary duty to deliver returns to investors, so he could not castigate them for having made a good investment call. Disclosure is the right option, though it is difficult to see significant changes to the allocations from UK pension funds as a result. 

Bid mania – Currys and Direct Line 

Merger and acquisition activity has been picking up in 2024. Takeovers have been constrained by higher debt financing costs and economic uncertainty, but HSBC research shows that the value of transactions in January and February alone is already two-thirds of last year’s total. There have been high profile bids for Currys and Direct Line, both of which have resulted in a significant bounce in share prices. Could this be a catalyst for UK share prices? 

Certainly, it shows that if investors don’t take an interest, corporate and private equity buyers may step in. That said, the interest is focused on a relatively narrow range of companies. They tend to be those facing near-term cyclical difficulties, but where there is an expectation of recovery. These are companies with lower leverage and healthy balance sheets. This is welcome for DIGIT, because it is the pool of assets in which we fish, but it may not boost the whole market.  

Bids have typically been around 40% higher than the current share price. That sounds high, but starting valuations are low and they may still undervalue the company. Direct Line’s board, for example, rejected its bid saying it significantly underestimates the future prospects of the company. Nevertheless, it is good to see a debate taking place. Rather than being a catalyst for UK shares, this resurgence in M&A may simply reflect a better environment, with the interest rate cycle turning, the economy improving and valuations compelling.  

There has been some concern that these bids will shrink UK equity markets at a time when high levels of share buybacks are having the same effect. With DIGIT’s ability to invest in continental Europe we still have a potential pool of over 1000 companies to consider, and have no problems finding high quality, sustainable companies that fit our investment criteria. We believe buybacks are generally being employed to good effect and are helping drive shareholder returns.  

ASML and share price strength 

One of the most difficult things we do is to assess the valuation of companies that are performing very strongly. Share prices may look optically expensive but may still undervalue the growth prospects of an individual company. This is a particular dilemma for many of the AI-related stocks, which saw their share prices soar in 2023.  

We have this dilemma with a company such as ASML. It is a vital cog in semiconductor production across the world and has a strong pipeline of growth. The valuation is high, but does not reflect the cyclical recovery in semiconductors, nor the rise in structural demand for the next generation of lithography machines. The company is still beating consensus estimates.  

We are always seeking to triangulate the multiples that we see today, with the expected growth rates going forward, taking a view as to whether there may be something the market might have missed on future earnings.  

Running winners is important. Trimming stocks prematurely on strength can destroy significant value. With the help of our in-house analysts, we build a forward-looking picture of a company’s prospects, and set that against the current valuation. In the last few years, we have worked hard to stay in these companies as long as we can.   

Housebuilders and the general election 

These days UK elections rarely make a significant difference to the domestic stock market. They may bring more stability, or marginally shift the economic outlook, but in the UK, the fiscal headroom will be very limited whoever is in power. The one exception may be the housebuilders, where changes to the planning rules under an incoming government could have an impact.  

It has been a very challenging cycle, with volumes in new-build housing sluggish. We have seen an impact not just on the housebuilders themselves, but all the way down supply chains, impacting construction and materials companies. Nevertheless, while volumes have been negative, house prices have remained resilient. Construction inflation is also coming down, which has been a headwind to the sector. Sales have started to pick up this year as mortgage rates have stabilised. 

The planning system has been a frustrating bottleneck. From our discussions with the various housebuilders, it seems that the Labour party is engaged on this topic and aware of the challenges. Any opening up of the planning rules would be a significant boost for the sector, and all the way down the value chain. We are looking at a number of potential beneficiaries. 

Important information 

Risk factors you should consider prior to investing: 

  • The value of investments and the income from them can fall and investors may get back less than the amount invested. 
  • Past performance is not a guide to future results. 
  • Investment in the Company may not be appropriate for investors who plan to withdraw their money within 5 years. 
  • The Company may borrow to finance further investment (gearing). The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV) meaning that any movement in the value of the company’s assets will result in a magnified movement in the NAV. 
  • The Company may accumulate investment positions which represent more than normal trading volumes which may make it difficult to realise investments and may lead to volatility in the market price of the Company’s shares. 
  • The Company may charge expenses to capital which may erode the capital value of the investment. 
  • Derivatives may be used, subject to restrictions set out for the Company, in order to manage risk and generate income. The market in derivatives can be volatile and there is a higher than average risk of loss. 
  • Movements in exchange rates will impact on both the level of income received and the capital value of your investment. 
  • There is no guarantee that the market price of the Company’s shares will fully reflect their underlying Net Asset Value. 
  • As with all stock exchange investments the value of the Company’s shares purchased will immediately fall by the difference between the buying and selling prices, the bid-offer spread. If trading volumes fall, the bid-offer spread can widen. 
  • The Company invests in emerging markets which tend to be more volatile than mature markets and the value of your investment could move sharply up or down. 
  • Certain trusts may seek to invest in higher yielding securities such as bonds, which are subject to credit risk, market price risk and interest rate risk. Unlike income from a single bond, the level of income from an investment trust is not fixed and may fluctuate. 
  • With funds investing in bonds there is a risk that interest rate fluctuations could affect the capital value of investments. Where long term interest rates rise, the capital value of shares is likely to fall, and vice versa. In addition to the interest rate risk, bond investments are also exposed to credit risk reflecting the ability of the borrower (i.e. bond issuer) to meet its obligations (i.e. pay the interest on a bond and return the capital on the redemption date). The risk of this happening is usually higher with bonds classified as ‘sub-investment grade’. These may produce a higher level of income but at a higher risk than investments in ‘investment grade’ bonds. In turn, this may have an adverse impact on funds that invest in such bonds. 
  • Yields are estimated figures and may fluctuate, there are no guarantees that future dividends with match or exceed historic dividends and certain investors may be subject to further tax on dividends. 

Companies are selected for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the investment management style described herein and not as an investment recommendation or indication of future performance. Past performance is not a guide to future results. 

Other important information: 

Issued by abrdn Fund Managers Limited, registered in England and Wales (740118) at 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4AG. abrdn Investments Limited, registered in Scotland (No. 108419), 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1XL. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. 

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Tekcapital remains steadfast in pursuit of ‘meaningful returns’ for shareholders after year of progress

Tekcapital further confirmed the canyon-sized disparity between the net asset value of its portfolio and its current market cap when it released its full-year results on Wednesday. 

Outlining a year of progress for its portfolio companies in the full-year period ending 31 December, Tekcapital confirmed that its portfolio’s valuation at the end of the period was $47.9m.

However, investors will be most interested in the post-period evolution of the portfolio’s net asset value, which stood at $75m as of 20th May. This compares to a current market cap of just £21m. 

Should Tekcapital shares close the gap on the portfolio’s NAV, it would suggest an upside in the shares of roughly 200%. And this is not taking into consideration any further growth in the portfolio’s value.

“The Group has made good progress during 2023,” said Tekcapital CEO, Dr Clifford Gross.

“Our portfolio companies have demonstrated solid business growth, and we believe they should achieve additional significant milestones by the end of 2024. Notably during the year, Innovative Eyewear Inc. launched the world’s first ChatGPT enabled eyewear.

“Guident signed re-seller agreements with both Auvetech a leading Estonia autonomous minibus manufacturer and Adastec a leading AV software provider. Guident’s RMCC software will be included in all Auvetech MiCa vehicles and as part of Adastec’s autonomous software stack for future deployments.

“Additionally, Guident has continued to improve and rigorously test its regenerative shock absorbers. Numerous Tier-1 companies are evaluating the shocks for potential inclusion in their electric vehicles.

“We are also pleased to highlight Microsalt’s strong progress ending the year by growing its revenues, signing up additional customers and launching its low sodium saltshakers in approximately 400 supermarkets and engaging its advisory team for their AIM IPO which was completed on 1 Feb 2024.

“Our financial results were negatively impacted by the reduction in the observable, closing share prices of both innovative Eyewear and Belluscura at the end of the period, which we believe were in large measure the result of exogenous macro-economic and capital market factors.

“We remain steadfast and excited about the commercial progress of our portfolio companies in 2023 and for their future prospects for the remainder of 2024. As per our mission and investment objective, we believe that all of our key portfolio companies have the potential to make a positive impact on the lives of the customers they serve, as well as produce meaningful returns on invested capital for our shareholders over the long term.” 

Tekcapital’s bottom line reflects underlying portfolio company valuation, and judging by the NAV as of a few days ago, 2024 will be a bumper year for profitability, should share prices hold at current levels. 

We spoke with the upbeat and bullish Tekcapital CEO, Dr Clifford Gross, who provided an intriguing insight into the company’s plans for a new Generative AI company that he says will launch this summer.

Tekcapital have previously announced plans for a fifth portfolio company and these plans now look set to spring into action with a new entity to capture growth in the burgeoning Generative AI industry.

Adsure Services’ TIAA receives B Corporation Certification

Adsure Services has announced its operating subsidiary TIAA ltd has been awarded the coveted ‘B Corporation’ Certification, paying testament to the AQUIS-listed company’s dedication to social and environmental performance beyond shareholder value creation.

Adsure Services listed on the AQUIS Exchange in 2023 and has quickly set about delivering on a five-year corporate plan to grow its business assurance operations across the housing, healthcare, government, education and charity sectors.

Receiving the ‘B Corp’ certification is the result of a rigorous assessment that examines five main impact areas: governance, workers, community, environment, and customers.

To qualify for certification, TIAA demonstrated responsible practises in energy supplies, waste and water use, worker compensation, diversity, and corporate transparency. 8,000 businesses globally have been certified as a B Corp.

“We are delighted to be joining the B Corp community,” said Kevin Limn, Chief Executive Office of Adsure Service PLC.

“To be part of a growing network of businesses seeking to make a positive impact, is an honour. It is great news for our staff, customers, and shareholders, validating the great work our teams do to support our clients in providing public services of the highest quality. We want to make a difference in all that we do and will utilise this certification to enable us to expand our reach to do more.”

Today’s news follows a strong set of interim financial results released at the end of last year pointing to revenue growth and a 20% increase in underlying EBITDA.

Marks & Spencer shares surge as growth plans spell ‘beginnings of a new M&S’

Marks & Spencer shares were sharply higher on Wednesday after the group announced strong sales and profits growth for the year ended 30th March 2024.

Statutory revenue for the period grew 9.3% to £13bn, up from £11.9bn in the same period a year prior. Investors will be over the moon with a 33.8% surge in operating profit to £836m.

“Two years into our plan to Reshape for Growth we can see the beginnings of a new M&S. Food and Clothing & Home grew volume and value share ahead of the market and sales increased across stores and online,” said Stuart Machin, Chief Executive.

Marks & Spencer has had its doubters. The clothing business was slow to adopt new trends and was tarred with the association of only being for the older generation. However, a 5.3% increase in home and clothing sales shows the company is on the front foot in terms of delivering products that resonate with a broad audience.

“M&S has had an excellent year and there is now enough evidence to suggest this isn’t a flash in the pan,” said Charlie Huggins, Fund Manager at Wealth Club.

“Sales have grown strongly, with 12 consecutive quarters of growth for Food and Clothing and Home. Profit margins have also risen nicely as a result of greater efficiency, and cash flow has been strong, enabling M&S to return to the dividend register.

“The most impressive thing about the M&S turnaround story so far has been the market share gains, in both Clothing and Food. They have been able to achieve this while reducing discounts, which is a good sign. In other words, they aren’t just slashing prices in the hope of getting quick sales growth. They have been focused on reinvigorating branding and designs, which ought to be more sustainable.

“All-in-all, M&S’ execution has been impressive in a difficult retail environment. Encouragingly, it sounds like there are plenty more self-help initiatives to go for, to keep this momentum going.”

Greencore – world’s largest sandwich maker sees profits quadruple, shares leap 20% with even more to come

The interim results from Greencore (LON:GNC), the major manufacturer of convenience food, saw a 6.4% fall in revenues to £866.1m (£925.8m), while its adjusted pre-tax profits were up 397.1% to £16.9m.

In reaction its shares leapt nearly 20% to 165.60p.

Major Recovery

As I suggested in my article in late March this year, the group has undergone quite a reorganisation over the last few years, while rejuvenating its operating margins, with the recovery now beginning to show through with the results for the six months to end March this year.

Conveniently Tasty

Greencore is the world’s largest fresh pre-packaged sandwich maker, making nearly 800m sandwiches and other food to go items each year.

It is not only in sandwiches that it is big, but also in other major convenience food categories, such as salads, sushi, chilled snacking, chilled ready meals, chilled soups and sauces, chilled quiche, ambient sauces and pickles and frozen Yorkshire Puddings.

Its 645 vehicles make over 10,400 ‘direct to store’ deliveries each day as it supplies all of the supermarkets in the UK, with over 1,600 of its products spanning across 20 categories.

Management Comment

Commenting upon the excellent recovery shown in the interims CEO Dalton Philips stated that:

“Greencore delivered excellent progress against its strategic priorities in the first half and continued to outperform the market in a difficult consumer spending environment.

The Group’s accelerating financial performance is very encouraging as we focus on driving profitability and returns. 

We are working with our major retail customers to develop new products and new offerings which are driving the growth of our Food to Go segment ahead of the market.

We have exited low margin business and are undertaking a range of actions to increase the returns profile of each element of the portfolio.”

My View

On 29th March I noted that after some tough remedial work in its recent efficiency drive it looks as though far better times are ahead for this group, suggesting that its shares are too cheap.

They were then just 112.90p, so the subsequent 46% rise to 165.60p over the last two months is more than pleasing.

However, I do feel that there is even more to come, especially with the group’s second half year always being its strongest in performance.

Tekcapital’s final results, portfolio company progress, and Generative AI with Dr Clifford Gross

The UK Investor Magazine was thrilled to welcome Dr Clifford Gross, CEO of Tekcapital, to the podcast for a rundown of the group’s final results.

We discuss portfolio company progress, the share price discount to NAV, GenerativeAI, and what excites Tekcapital the most about the year ahead.

FTSE 100 dips on rates concerns, AstraZeneca outlines ambitious plans

The FTSE 100 dipped on Tuesday after investors were served an unwelcome reminder that the Federal Reserve rate cuts were by no means a certainty over the summer.

Comments from a Fed official overnight sparked a wave of concern about interest rates that washed up on the shores of UK stocks. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson suggested the Fed had not yet made up its mind on interest rates in a speech last night. The markets have priced in a very different story.

“It is too early to tell whether the recent slowdown in the disinflationary process will be long lasting,” Jefferson said.

After a series of softer inflation readings, both in the US and the UK, equity markets have quickly priced in rate cuts this summer.

Interest rate hopes have translated into an equity market rally that helped the FTSE 100 break to fresh record highs and stemmed a period of weakness in US stocks. The mere suggestion that these rate cuts may not transpire until later in the year has been enough to cause wobbles in stocks, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.4% at the time of writing. 

“Investors want the Federal Reserve to say inflation is comfortably on track to hit its 2% target and that interest rates will undergo a series of cuts. However, the central bank is loathed to make such a commitment and so we’ve got underlying uncertainty in the market even though data points are supportive to this line of thinking,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at a conference in New York triggered a sense of nervousness in the market as he played down talk of imminent rate cuts. European markets weren’t impressed and opened Tuesday mostly in the red.”

AstraZeneca was a notable riser after outlining plans to boost annual revenue to $80bn per year by 2030. The Pharma giant has delivered on such promises before and investors bought into shares on Tuesday as the company detailed a strategy to launch 20 new medicines in the coming years.

The targeted $80bn revenue will represent a significant jump from the $45.8bn generated in 2023.

“Having stepped up to the plate and delivered on its $45 billion revenue goal set a decade earlier, AstraZeneca is now reaching for the stars with a new target to hit $80 billion revenue by 2030. The market liked the bold ambition, sending the shares to the upper part of the FTSE 100 leader board,” Russ Mould said.

“An easy way for AstraZeneca to achieve such a goal would be to go on a spending spree and buy up rival companies. However, AstraZeneca implies it will hit the goal through organic means which would be all the more impressive.”

Kingfisher was slightly weaker after announcing poor Q1 sales for their French business, which dragged on reasonably positive news from the UK.

“It’s a much tougher market these days for Kingfisher in comparison to the pandemic DIY boom,” said Adam Vettese, analyst at investment platform eToro.

“The Screwfix and B&Q parent company reaped the benefits of consumers stuck at home with a few extra pounds in their pocket and now we have the opposite in that people are returning to the office and feeling the pinch in terms of cost of living. Full year profit outlook has been maintained so it may not be time to panic just yet but there are indications of tougher trading conditions in other key markets such as France.”

Kingfisher shares were down 1.1% at the time of writing.

XP Power rejects bid

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Power products supplier XP Power (LON: XPP) is the highest riser on the day after an indicative bid approach at £19.50/share. The share price has not been at that level since the profit warning last September and the market price jumped 48.3% to £17.26. Premium listed XP Power has rejected the proposal by Nasdaq-listed Advanced Energy Industries.

This is the third proposal by Advanced Energy Industries and values XP Power at £468m. Back in October it offered £17/share and then in November it offered £18.50/share. That was prior to XP Power raising cash at £11.50/share.

Advanced Energy Industries, which is focusing on precision power business, has been frustrated by a lack of engagement by XP Power and it wants to appeal directly to the shareholders. The company has more than $1bn of cash on its balance sheet, so it can afford XP Power and its debt.

XP Power’s net debt is expected to be £165.9m at the end of 2024 and it is not set to fall significantly until 2026. No dividend is forecast for this year, but there could be a return to dividend payments next year.

Trading is in line with expectations. A pre-tax profit of £16.8m is forecast for 2024, rising to £29.9m next year. The 2025 prospective multiple is 20 at the indicative offer price.

AIM movers: Weak telecoms market for Calnex Solutions and Naked Wines improves cash

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Online wine retailer Naked Wines (LON: WINE) says 2023-24 revenues were 13% lower at £290m, compared with a 18% decline in the first half. Underlying operating profit was £5m, although asset impairments, US inventory provisions and other exceptional costs mean that there will be a reported operating loss of up to £18m. Net cash was better than expected at £20m with inventory reduced. The share price recovered 10.6% to 57.5p.

Oracle Power (LON: ORCP) says that its joint venture has been granted an extension of the letter of intent from the Sindh government for the development of a 1.3GW renewable energy power plant. It is extended until 23 January 2025 and depends on an extended bank guarantee of $600,000. The share price rose 7.89% to 0.0205p.

FIL has increased its stake in IG Design (LON: IGR) from 5.11% to 10%. The recovery in the share price of the gift wrap and stationery products supplier continues and it is 9.25% higher at 224.5p. The highest level since early 2022.

Genomic tests developer Oxford BioDynamics (LON: OBD) is partnering with The London Clinic in Harley Street for the use of the EpiSwitch prostate screening and CiRT tests in the newly opened Rapid Diagnostics Centre. The share price improved 2.89% to 7.82p.

FALLERS

Telecoms testing equipment supplier Calnex Solutions (LON: CLX) reported 2023-24 revenues two-fifths lower at £16.3m and it fell into loss. The final dividend was maintained at 0.62p/share. The telecoms market remains subdued, and Calnex Solutions is moving into new markets, such as defence. The distribution agreement with Spirent ends in July, but management is advanced with its plans to replace this source of income. Net cash declined to £11.9m because of higher inventory levels and capitalised R&D. A return to profit is expected this year and the cash level should be maintained. The share price fell 11.2% to 55.5p.

Premier African Minerals (LON: PREM) has raised £1.25m at 0.16p/share to finance the Zulu lithium and tantalum project. There have also been £1.57m of shares issued to contractors to pay invoices. Management says that ore grades consistently exceed the resource estimate, but there are continuing problems with the ore sorter. Average cost per ton is expected to fall below $800 next year. The share price dipped 8.99% to 0.162p.

Scientific instruments manufacturer Judges Scientific (LON: JDG) says that there is unlikely to be a material revenues contribution from coring contracts at the Geotek subsidiary. The potential contract is unlikely to commence until near to the end of 2024 and then make a significant contribution in 2025. Trading is subdued against tough comparators. WH Ireland still expects a full year pre-tax profit of £33.8m, although that assumes a stronger second half. The share price is 8.58% lower at £106.50.

Watkin Jones (LON: WJG) says full year operating profit is likely to be £15m, which is the lower end of the guidance range. The student accommodation and rental property developer returned to profit in the first half to March 2024. Revenues rose from £153.9m to £175.1m. There is no dividend as cash is conserved. Borrowings have been reduced and net cash is £44m.  The share price slipped 7.88% to 49.375p.

Shoe Zone (LON: SHOE) traded in line with expectations in the first half. The retailer is improving its margins. Lower transport costs are partly offsetting wage rises. Interim revenues were 1% higher at £76.5m and pre-tax profit flat at £2.5m. The interim dividend was maintained at 2.5p/share. A greater proportion of revenues are coming from online sales as store numbers decreased. Full year pre-tax profit is set to fall from £16.5m to £13.8m. The share price declined 6.76% to 172.5p.

Premier African Minerals completes placing to fund Zulu optimisation

Premier African Minerals shares were trading down over 10% on Tuesday after announcing the results of a placing. 

Premier has completed yet another placing to keep hopes for success at its Zulu lithium mine alive as the company ploughs ahead with a schedule of works designed to bring the plant up to the standards required by an offtake agreement with Chinese partners.

The company has raised £1.25m at 0.16p per share to fund the optimisation of the Zulu plant which has been dogged by delays and questions about the grade of its offtake.

Premier African Minerals shares were down 9% at the time of writing, trading at the placing price of 0.16p.

“The Company provided a full discussion on the Zulu plant performance in our announcement of 8 May 2024. The Company expects that periodic updates will be provided on the overall plant performance until such time as a steady of state of continuance production has been achieved, Premier expects thereafter to begin providing quarterly production reports for Zulu from Q3 of 2024,” said

“Over and above this, we are encouraged with mining operations and the ROM ore grades that consistently exceed our resource estimate and this is mitigating for the moment, the ore sorter deficiencies. This also supports the review of overall operations and production costs and the likely reduced production costs discussed below.

“Inspections required as a prelude to export have commenced, and this precedes any export. We do not expect any delays in regard to export permits required.

“This was confirmed in recent meetings with Government of Zimbabwe when the issue of RHA Tungsten Private Limited (“RHA”) was also discussed and we are encouraged that there is now likely resolution of this issue. The rising price of Tungsten is noted”.