Are the house builders a stock pickers dream?

Alan Green joins the Podcast to explore the recent moves in the FTSE 100 and we pay particular attention to the house builders following the Budget.

With the Stamp Duty holiday being extended and the government guaranteeing 5% mortgages, the market has reacted positively sending the shares of house builders higher.

In addition, we question other underlying factors at play in the shares of house builders and how the FTSE 100 could soon become a market for the stock picker.

We discuss EQTEC (LON:EQT), Xpediator (LON:XPD) and Mirriad Advertising (LON:MIRI).

Why the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust share price is sinking

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Share Price

The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) was down by 7% in morning trading on Thursday. It is a continuation of a recent trend for Baillie Gifford’s flagship investment trust which saw sharp falls throughout February. Since the middle of February, when the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust was valued at 1,415p per share, its value has plummeted by 29% to 1,095.7.

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust share price

Investors have been monitoring the trust closely as the dip could represent an ideal opportunity to buy in. This article will take a closer look at the trust’s holdings and the causes for its recent drop-off in value.

Rising bond yields

Bond yields are rising and it is causing concern for investors. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield climbed to 1.477% through the night, having reached a one-year high of 1.614% a week ago.

The yields, which are adjusted for expected inflation, have jumped recently as investors anticipate Joe Biden’s stimulus package will result in stronger US price growth.

Rising bond yields have begun to have an impact on US stocks, in particular those held within the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust.

“The higher the yield on bonds, the more we see this push to move out of stocks,” said Jeffrey Carbone, managing partner at Cornerstone Wealth, North Carolina.

US tech stocks

The S&P 500 dipped by 1.31% on Wednesday, losing 50.51 points, as investors sold off their technology stocks following the continued news of rising bond yields. Tesla, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust’s fourth largest holding, has been particularly affected in recent weeks by the move away from technology and high-growth stocks.

In January, Tesla was close to breaking the $900 mark following massive growth during the pandemic. However, the electric car manufacturer has since plummeted, now trading at $653.20 per share.

Tesla’s share price from 7/1/21 to 4/3/21

Amazon, one of the notorious FAANG stocks, and the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust’s third largest holding, also bore the brunt of investors’ move away from tech. From 3,380p per share on 2 February, the online retailer has since dropped to 3005p per share, a fall of 12%.

Asia

The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust has holdings in some of Asia’s top companies, however, even they could not escape investors’ renewed scepticism. Technology companies saw dips across the region yesterday. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped by 2.3% to 28,930.11, while the the Shanghai Composite lost 2.05% to 3,503.49.

The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust’s top holding, Tencent, the Chinese technology company fell by 4.56%, while Alibaba, the online retailer, and the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust’s sixth top holding, fell by 2.56.

Both Tencent and Alibaba have seen dips over the past month or so, in line with their American counterparts. Tencent fell from 766.5HKD on January 25 to 690HKD today, a fall of 11%, while Alibaba dropped from 265HKD TO 227.2HKD, a fall of 17%, over a similar time period.

FTSE 100 suffers knock-on effect of rising US bond yields

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The FTSE 100, London’s blue-chip index, was hit hard on Thursday as it fell by 0.74% just after midday to 6,626.05. The index felt the knock-on impact of a rise in US bond yields which dragged commodity prices down, as well as causing a sell-off on US tech stocks.

FTSE 100 Top Movers

Aviva (2.53%), Sage Group (2.4%) and British Land Group (2.29%) headed up the index at midday on Thursday.

Mining giants Rio Tinto (-7.84%) and BHP (-6.10%) were the top two followers on the FTSE 100 at lunchtime closely followed by the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (-5.9%).

FTSE 100 Mining Companies

It was a tough day for oil and mining companies on the index as the price of oil came down. This followed a rally in recent weeks, particularly for mining groups, in anticipation of a commodities supercycle.

After a strong climb since early 2020, Rio Tinto shares plumetted by nearly 8% to 5,933p. Other FTSE 100 mining companies, including BHP, Antofagasta and Glencore also saw significant falls in the value of their shares.

Rio Tinto’s share price from 22/1/21 to 4/3/21

Aviva

Aviva confirmed on Thursday that the company is set to sell its Italian arm in 2021 as it looks to pay down its debt. The insurer also announced a net profit of £2.9bn, up from £2.7bn in 2019.

The FTSE 100 insurer proposed a final dividend of 14p per share, bringing the total dividend for 2020 up to 21p per share. This is up from 15.5p per share in 2019.

Schroders

Schroders confirmed on Thursday that its pre-tax profit fell by 2.3% in 2020, while its assets under management soared to a record high. The asset management company posted a profit before tax of £610.5m in 2020, down from £624.6m in 2019.

The FTSE 100 company now manages assets worth £574.4bn, up from 15% the year before.

Melrose posts operating loss as talks to sell-off Nortek commence

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Melrose operating profit down to £340m

Melrose Industries (LON:MRO), owner of GKN, confirmed on Thursday morning it had initiated the process of selling its Nortek air-conditioning division.

However, there can be “no certainty a disposal will be completed”, according to the company’s financial statement released today.

The manufacturing company also posted a sharp drop in its operating profits, from £1.1bn in 2019 to £340m.

Adjusted free cash generation was £628 million, 6% higher than 2019, prior to £172 million of restructuring costs.

Melrose’s strong cash generation resulted in the company’s net debt falling by over £400 million to £2.85 billion by the end of 2020. This is down from £3.3bn from the year before.

The FTSE 100 company has proposed a final dividend of 0.75p “given the excellent cash generation achieved in the year”, according to the financial statement. This follows Melrose’s decision to withdraw its dividend for 2019 on account of the global pandemic.

The Melrose share price was up by 1.1% on early Thursday morning trading to 178.9p per share following the company’s announcement. Year-to-date the value Melrose shares are up by 97p per share.

Justin Dowley, chairman of Melrose Industries, commented on the results:

“Whilst the COVID-19 crisis has had a major detrimental effect this year, Melrose has generated record cash flows and continued to invest to improve our businesses.  All of this positions the Group well for a good recovery and strong performance in the future. Amidst these difficult conditions, Melrose has also managed to significantly reduce the £1 billion GKN UK pension scheme funding deficit that we inherited at the time of acquisition.”

Entain swings to profit following stateside venture

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Entain’s joint venture in US has 18% market share of live markets

Entain (LON:ENT), the owner of Ladbrokes, swung to a profit during 2020 as growth from its venture into the US market reaped higher sales.

Following a loss of £131.2m in 2019, Entain posted a profit of £113.8m for 2020.

The FTSE 100 company saw its revenue remain steady at £3.5bn, as earnings rose by 10% to £862.1m.

BetMGM, Entain’s joint venture with MGM Resorts, is now live in 12 states, and the company’s market share of live markets is up to 18%.

Harry Barnick, Senior Analyst for leisure sector companies at Third Bridge, commented on Etain’s reliance on growth in the US:

“Growth in the US is fundamental to Entain’s long-term future. This increasingly competitive market has outperformed expectations and is the key growth pillar for the group,” Barnick said.

The board announced in the financial statement that a dividend would not be paid, as it did not consider it a “prudent” measuring with the ongoing uncertainty caused by Covid-19. In 2019 Entain paid a dividend of 17.6p per share.

Entain’s share price is down 2.05% on market opening on Thursday to 1,431p per share.

Jette Nygaard-Andersen, chief executive at Entain, commented on the results:  

“Having spent more than two decades working with digital companies using technology to transform and disrupt industries, I am hugely excited about the future prospects for Entain.  We are a digital entertainment company with a clear strategic focus on growth and sustainability.  As such, we have a fantastic platform from which to use our proprietary technology to expand into new markets and reach new audiences around the world.”

“Today’s results demonstrate the extraordinary resilience and professionalism of our people, as well as the importance of having a truly diversified business model that is not overly reliant on any one product, brand, territory, or channel.  Furthermore, we firmly believe that the launch during the year of our Sustainability Charter, which includes our game-changing Advanced Responsibility & Care player protection programme, will be a key component in helping us to deliver on our vision of being the world-leader in sports-betting and gaming entertainment.”

“The strong underlying momentum within our business, the rapid growth of our US joint-venture, and our continuing international expansion mean that we are as confident as ever in the long-term prospects for Entain.”

Schroders assets under management at a record high

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Schroders profit before tax down by 2.3%

Schroders (LON:SDR) confirmed on Thursday that its pre-tax profit fell by 2.3% in 2020, while its assets under management soared to a record high.

The asset management company posted a profit before tax of £610.5m in 2020, down from £624.6m in 2019.

The FTSE 100 company now manages assets worth £574.4bn, up from 15% the year before.

The board announced a final dividend of 79p per share, bringing the full-year payment to 114p -unchanged from the previous two years.

Schroders’ share price was down by 2.28% at early morning trading on Thursday to 3,510p per share. The company’s share price is up year-to-date by 95p from 3,415p.

Peter Harrison, chief executive at Schroders, commented on the company’s results:

“The strength of our investment performance showcases the benefits of active investment management and our ability to deliver good outcomes for our clients. I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and ongoing dedication to our clients which helped us to deliver a strong financial performance in 2020 despite the challenging environment,” said Harrison.

“Assets under management increased 15% to reach a record high of £574.4 billion. We generated net inflows of £42.5 billion with strong demand in our Private Assets, Wealth Management and Solutions businesses. These higher growth areas now account for 54% of our assets under management. Our geographic diversification continued with our US business reaching a milestone of more than $100 billion of assets under management. We also continued to expand in Asia through our growing network of partnerships which contributed strongly to the Group in 2020.”

“I am proud of our continued progress in building a leading position in sustainability and impact investing. We now incorporate ESG factors into decision-making across our investment range. This fulfils a commitment we made in 2019. De-carbonisation is a critical issue. We are focused on supporting companies in their transition to net zero.”

Aviva to sell off Italian operation to pay down debt

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Aviva posts net profit of £2.9bn

Aviva confirmed on Thursday that the company is set to sell its Italian arm in 2021 as it looks to pay down its debt.

The insurer will offload its Italian operation by selling for €873m in cash according to its financial statement released today. Aviva expects a £1.7bn debt reduction in the first half of 2021.

The insurer also announced a net profit of £2.9bn, up from £2.7bn in 2019.

Aviva had a record year with strong sales of bulk annuities, in which the company took on a large portion of corporate pension scheme liabilities.

Aviva proposed a final dividend of 14p per share, bringing the total dividend for 2020 up to 21p per share. This is up from 15.5p per share in 2019.

On Thursday’s market opening, Aviva’s share price was up by 0.89% to 386.4p per share. Year-to-date the company’s share price is up by over 20p.

Amanda Blanc, chief executive at Aviva, commented on the results:

“2020 was a year of significant change for Aviva. We have taken major steps forward in simplifying the business, most recently with the sale of Aviva France and today’s announcement of the sale of the rest of our Italian operations. Our strategic focus is now on the UK, Ireland and Canada where we have leading positions. We are putting customers at the heart of everything we do and I am confident we will transform Aviva’s financial performance and deliver greater value for our shareholders. I recognise we have much more to do and we are getting on with it.”

“Our performance in 2020 demonstrates the resilience of our Core businesses and our growth potential. We delivered record sales in group protection; record sales of bulk purchase annuities; and record net flows in savings and retirement, where we are the largest provider of workplace pensions in the UK.”

“Aviva is financially strong and following the completion of the major disposals, we will be in a position to make a substantial return of capital to our shareholders. We are also announcing today an £800m debt tender offer. This allows us to accelerate our debt reduction plans and lower debt by a total of £1.7bn in the first half of this year.”

Edenville Energy in process of handing over Tanzania operations

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Edenville Energy to update shareholders when takeover agreed

Edenville Energy (AIM:EDL) reported on Wednesday morning that the company is set to continue working alongside Infrastructure and Logistics Tanzania (ILTL) on the proposed handover of operations at Rukwa.

The company announced it will inform its shareholders when the official handover date is agreed.

In the meantime, the AIM-listed company confirmed its existing contracts, in addition to pursuing new contracts with existing and new customers.

Edenville “has received new East African enquiries regarding power generation capacity and is continuing discussions with the Tanzanian Government regarding a future power plant development at Rukwa”, the board confirmed in a statement.

Edenville Energy’s share price opened down on the firm’s announcement but then rebounded back to the level of yesterday’s close, to 33.5p per share. Year-to-date, the company’s shares are up by over 20%.

At the end of January 2021, Edenville Energy’s share price jumped by 16% as the coal mining company announced a fundraising.

FTSE 100 set to make third consecutive daily gain

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Following an early morning rally in anticipation of the budget announcement, the FTSE 100 was up by 0.58% to 6,651.22, as the close of day neared. It is the third consecutive day of upward movement on the index amid optimism surrounding the vaccine roll-out and Rishi Sunak’s budget.

Sunak announced a hike in corporation tax up to 25% from 2023, up from its present level at 19%. The lowest income tax threshold will rise to £12,570, while the higher rate threshold will go up to £50,270. Both will then be frozen until 2026. The Chancellor received mixed reviews, with experts warning of the potential impact of Sunak’s tax policies on the UK economy.

Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, gave his verdict as the Chancellor delivered his 2021 Budget in the House of Commons, his second since he took on the role.

“The Chancellor has got an extraordinarily difficult hand to play as he tries to stem the economic damage caused by the pandemic, support jobs and businesses and, crucially, rebuild the public finances,” said Green.

“Whilst Mr Sunak is being hailed a hero for the continued and unprecedented levels of support, it should also be remembered that he is – in a stealth move – dragging more people firmly into the tax net.”

“He is raising taxes under the radar. Yes, there is no income tax rise. However, he is freezing personal tax thresholds, meaning as incomes rise and thresholds don’t, he is able to raise money by fiscal drag.”

The FTSE 100, specifically homebuilders, benefitted from the Chancellor’s efforts to stimulate the economy.

FTSE 100 Top Movers

Homebuilders, Persimmon (5.52%) and Taylor Wimpey (5.23%), headed up the FTSE 100 closely followed by Barclays (4.63%).

At the other end of the index, Avast (-4.05%), Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (-3.22%) and Severn Trent (-2.79%) were the day’s top fallers.

DS Smith

DS Smith (LON:SMDS) confirmed on Wednesday that its trading volumes are in line with the company’s expectations.

The FTSE 100 firm, which supplies packaging products to Amazon, Nestle and Unilever, noted “strong box volumes” driven by its differentiated offering, while input costs costs also increased.

Interview with CrowdToLive CEO Anouar Adham

What is CrowdToLive?

 CrowdToLive offers a new way for would-be homeowners and buy-to-let investors to realise their dreams of property ownership. To do that, our innovative platform leverages the power of crowdfunding.

Our buyers – we call them Champions – use our service to take a minimum of 5% equity in a property, while professional investors take the remainder. Champions pay inflation-linked rent on the portion of the property they don’t own. Both Champions and investors share proportionately in any capital appreciation when the home is sold. 

This co-investment model helps align the interests of tenants and investors, while also mitigating many of the issues that have made institutions wary of the UK residential market up to now.

Who are your Champions?

Like many of the best ideas, CrowdToLive was developed to solve a problem. We wanted to address the immense difficulties facing certain types of buyer when they seek a home of their own or wish to access rental yields from buy-to-let properties. 

Such buyers include the self-employed, first-timers, Muslims, expats, and NHS workers. They are the Champions – but we also cater to anyone with property-owning ambitions.

What are the buy-to-let issues that CrowdToLive helps to mitigate?

There are five main ones

First is every landlord’s constant worry, the so-called ‘void period’ when, following a tenancy termination, the property is unlet for an indefinite time. With CrowdToLive, that uncertainty is lessened because every tenant signs a five-year lease.

Secondly, we sidestep the bulk of estate agency fees. Tenant-finding fees, inventory fees, property management fees all add to the landlord’s expense ratio. 

In recent years, moreover, changes to the law have made it increasingly difficult for agents to charge fees to tenants, leaving landlords to carry that additional burden. 

With CrowdToLive®, in contrast, the investment property comes fully-let for a minimum of five years. 

Besides, our management fee is only 2% of the rent, compared with estate agents’ typical 12% levy.

Thirdly – and this is a key attraction for our professional investors – most expenses are insured and insurance premium are paid by the Champion. 

Any landlord’s nightmare is a tenant who stops paying rent while mortgage payments continue. CrowdToLive® is different. We are an all-equity platform, so the property is debt-free: no mortgage, no lender lien of any kind, no interest payments – hence, the attractions of our service for Muslims.

Moreover, Champions pledge their equity against unpaid rent and fees arising from any breach of the tenancy agreement. If we can’t resolve that breach with the tenant within an agreed period, we’ll start an eviction process. Once the property is vacated, we will sell it and the proceeds of the Champion’s equity will go to pay any outstanding rent and fees. This limits the cash-flow risk of unpaid rent.

Finally, there is the long-standing problem that property is an investment with a very high barrier to entry, given the average cost of £251,500 according to the UK House Price Index for end-December 2020. That compares with a minimum investment of just £40,000 on the CrowdToLive® platform.

Where are the properties located?

CrowdToLive properties are located all around England. However, our main current focus is on the larger cities, where the available selection of properties is wider and there’s good liquidity if we need to sell.

What is the CrowdToLive® exit procedure?

Champions have the option, but not the obligation, to buy more equity in their property every three months, with the percentage movement in the UK House Price Index as the basis for valuation. That provides the exit path for our professional investors.

Investors can also sell their equity at any time but they will first need to find a buyer – for which, however, there’s no guarantee. After five years, the property will be sold if the Champion does not want to renew a tenant’s five-year lease or if a majority of the professional investors want to sell the property.

What level of return is expected?

CrowdToLive targets a rental yield of 5% to 6% annually, net of expenses. It is worth noting that Champions and professional investors also share any potential capital gain when the property is sold. 

What are the main risks?

As with any investment, there can be no return at all unless some risks are taken. First of all, the value of the property could go down. 

Secondly, there is a liquidity risk because willing buyers may prove hard to find when it’s time to sell. 

Due to those risks, the product is only available to Sophisticated and High Net Worth Individuals.

However, the key to minimising such risks is diversification. No-one should invest all of their savings in property alone. It should be just one element in a balanced portfolio of complementary assets. 

Taking that one step further, CrowdToLive® could actually help to reduce the risks of property investing because its low minimum investment may enable buyers to hold a diverse range of properties (houses, flats, new-builds, conversions, etc) in different locations.

Our website outlines these and other risks. Go to: https://crowdtolive.com or click here to read our investor guide.