easyJet shares rise as passenger numbers take off and losses fall in first half

Easyjet shares were on the rise on Thursday after the airline said most major performance metrics improved in the six months to March 31st.

Passenger numbers were up 8% and ticket yields increased 9%. Losses were much improved despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.

“Disruption in the Middle East has led to a £40mn direct impact for easyJet in the first half. Flying into Israel has been suspended for the summer. In true easyJet fashion, the group’s been able to flex its unexpected capacity to other areas, and has still been able to reduce losses compared to the previous year,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Airlines almost always lose money in the winter months and focus on earning profits in the summer. Managing the losses in the winter months and securing strong summer bookings is key to the business model. easyJet has done just that.

Winter losses before tax improved by more than £50m and summer bookings are ahead of last year after a strong Easter trading period.

“Narrowed first-half losses can be chalked up as a result for EasyJet – given the inherent seasonality of holidays means airlines often lose money in the winter months and make up for that over the summer,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“True, these figures were somewhat obscured by the timing of Easter but on the flipside the company also took a hit relating to the conflict in the Middle East.

“Consumers still seem to be willing to prioritise travel with the disposable income they have and by boosting capacity and rolling out its package holidays venture, EasyJet has positioned itself to take advantage of this trend.

“At what point people’s willingness and ability to spend money on a week in the sun dries up remains to be seen and this, along with pressures around the industry’s environmental impact, are the obvious clouds on an otherwise sunny horizon for EasyJet.”

easyJet shares were 2.2% higher at the time of writing.

AIM movers: Surgical Innovations plans improved efficiency and ex-dividends

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Surgical Innovations (LON: SUN) reported record revenues in 2023 and it has set out the measures that should return it to profitability. The surgical instruments supplier increased revenues from £11.3m to £12m, but it fell back into loss. There has been an 11% reduction in employees and investment in robotic equipment to improve efficiency. The second quarter order book is strong. Two distribution agreements have been extended. Singer forecasts a £300,000 loss for 2024, but it will reassess the figure at the time of the first half trading statement. The share price improved by one-quarter to 0.5p.

Legal finance provider Manolete Partners (LON: MANO) says total revenues improved from £20.8m to £26.3m. Realised revenues were lower because there was a large one-off case completion in the previous year. There was a positive contribution from unrealised revenues. This led to a return to profit in the year to March 2024. Net debt is £12.25m. The higher level of insolvencies is leading to greater demand for financing of cases. The share price improved 20.4% to 147.5p.

Optimer binders developer Aptamer Group (LON: APTA) is partnering with Kairos Biotech, which will use the Optimer+ affinity ligand platform to develop EM molecules that can be used in relation to transplant rejection and improve the chances of success. This is a fee for services project. The shareholding of S Chari increased from 3.14% to 4.39%. The share price recovered 9.52% to 0.575p.

Online content publisher LBG Media (LON: LBG) improved 2024 revenues 7.5% to £67.5m, while pre-tax profit rose 7% to £14m. Net cash is £15.8m. The problems in Australasia are being sorted out. Growth was achieved despite the weak advertising market. Zeus forecasts a 2024 pre-tax profit of £19.6m, helped by a full contribution from US business Betches. The company is up for two awards at the Small Cap Awards 2024 on 13 June. The share price increased 8.15% to 73p.

FALLERS

CEPS (LON: CEPS) has received a payment of £345,000 relating to the winding up of the Dinkie Heel pension fund. The total surplus after tax was £403,000, but there will be fees to be taken from this before the residual amount is paid. The share price fell 12.5% to 17.5p.

Fire protection products developer Zenova Group (LON: ZED) has appointed Peterhouse as broker and switched auditor from PKF to Gravitas Audit. The share price dipped 9.09% to 1.5p.

Chief executive Lisa Anson continues to buy shares in Redx Pharma (LON: REDX), which will soon be leaving AIM. She acquired a further 189,500 shares at an average price of 10.01p each. She owns 751,683 shares. The share price still declined 11.1% to 12p.

Investment company Gunsynd (LON: GUN) reported a slump in NAV from £3.28m to £1.74m in the year to January 2024. The focus is resource companies and the share prices have performed poorly. There was cash of £113,000 at the end of January but there have been share sales since then. The share price dipped 7.41% to 0.125p.

Ex-dividends

Airea (LON: AIEA) is paying a final dividend of 0.55p/share and the share price is unchanged at 33.5p.

Arbuthnot Banking (LON: ARBB) is paying a final dividend of 27p/share and the share price is 25p lower at £10.75.

Hvivo (LON: HVO) is paying a final dividend of 0.2p/share and the share price is unchanged at 27.6p.

Uniphar (LON: UPR) is paying a final dividend of 1.19 cents/share and the share price and the share price is unchanged at 224p.

M Winkworth (LON: WINK) is paying a dividend of 3p/share and the share price is unchanged at 175p.

Is Centamin a buy after a disappointing Q1 update?

There is a big disconnect between the Centamin share price and the underlying price of gold, which widened on Thursday after the Egypt-focused miner released a soggy Q1 update.

Total gold production for the period fell 1% to 104,821oz, while the grade of open pit mining output dropped 28%.

“Gold miner Centamin has this morning reported gold production volumes and sales were down in the first quarter of 2024 versus Q1 23, however they fully expect production to increase into the year and have reaffirmed 2024 production and cost guidance,” said Mark Crouch, analyst at investment platform eToro.

The blip in Q1 may provide a buying opportunity for gold bugs seeking to gain exposure to the Sukari mine, Egypt’s first large-scale modern gold mine in the Arabian Nubian Shield.

“2024 has seen something of a gold rush, with the metal hitting multiple new all-time highs. Since January, Centamin’s share price has outpaced the price of gold, rising almost 25%, reaching a three-year high, compared with gold’s gains of 15%,” Crouch said.

“Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Ukraine has almost certainly contributed to gold’s rise, but doubts remain over central banks’ ability to gain a handle on inflation, with CPI in the US rising for the third month in a row in March, casting doubts over rate cuts that were all but a given just a few weeks ago.

“With analysts at CITI this week projecting $3000 gold within the next 18 months, Centamin and their investors look set for a profitable year ahead.”

While Centamin is first and foremost a play on the gold price and continued production at their Egyptian asset, there is the potential upside of an exploration campaign in close proximity to the Sukari mine and developments in Cote d’Ivoire.

Micah Richards appointed as brand ambassador for Tekcapital’s Innovative Eyewear

Tekcapital portfolio company Innovative Eyewear has announced a material expansion of its global marketing campaign with the appointment of Micah Richards as a brand ambassador for the Lucyd smart eyewear range.

Tekcapital investors will be encouraged by Innovative Eyewears clear intention to grow the Lucyd brand with high-profile personalities as the smart eyewear specialist builds momentum in 2024.

Micah Richards is a former England International and Manchester City footballer who successfully transitioned to a leading pundit appearing on Sky Sports, CBS Sports and BBC Sport. He is also a co-host of “The Rest is Football”, the top ten UK podcast.

“These days, when people are spending more time than ever in front of their phones, TVs and computers, active lifestyle products like Lucyd eyewear are critically important,” Micah Richards said.

“I am excited to partner with Innovative Eyewear to advance a new generation of smart glasses that enhance almost any physical activity with seamless open-ear audio and ChatGPT, all while protecting and correcting your vision.”

The appointment comes as Innovative Eyewear sales rise after launching new ranges and bolstering marketing initiatives as the global adoption of smart eyewear grows. 

In Q4 2023, the company generated more revenue than in the preceding three months and efforts such as today’s announcement promise additional growth in the future.

Nautica powered by Lucyd smart eyewear was launched at the beginning of 2024 and its penetration will be evident in upcoming earnings releases.Reebok and Eddie Bauer smart eywear is due to be launched this year.

The appointment of Micah Richards follows yesterday’s announcement Innovative Eyewear is ramping up retail distribution across the US through a partnership with Windsor Eyes.

Innoavtive Eyewears next earning release will be highly anticipated.

Severfield beats expectations and launches share buy back

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Mark Watson-Mitchell was right to highlight the dealing levels in structural steel supplier Severfield (LON: SFR) shares (Severfield – take note of yesterday’s substantial trading in this steelwork group’s shares  – UK Investor Magazine). The subsequent trading statement was better than expected. The share price jumped 19.3% to 64.4p on the back of this news.

Liberum has increased its pre-tax profit estimate for the year just ended from £34.3m to £35.8m. That is down to better margins in the commercial and industrial division. The expected dividend has been raised from 3.6p/share to 3.9p/share. Severfield is gaining market share.

Steel and energy prices have fallen back in the past year and 80% of energy costs are fixed for 2024-25. The UK and Europe order book has risen by 6%, but the Indian order book has declined by 15%. There is strong demand for battery plants, nuclear and data centres.  

The pre-tax profit forecast for the year to March 2025, has been trimmed from £37m to £36.6m because of a higher interest charge. That is even after lower than expected net debt of £10.2m at the end of March 2024, while the net debt forecast for March 2025 has been cut from £19.1m to £14.4m.

The rise in net debt is down to the plan to spend £10m on share buy backs, which will help to enhance earnings. The 2024-25 earnings forecast has been raised from 9.1p/share to 9.6p/share. However, Liberum has estimated the shares will be acquired at an average of 55p each. The share price rise means that the earnings may not be quite as high as forecast. The shares are trading on less than seven times prospective 2024-25 earnings and the forecast yield is 6.4%.  

FTSE 100 gains as Middle East tensions subside, miners lead the way

The FTSE 100 was materially higher on Wednesday as Middle East tensions subsided and miners stormed higher and took the index with them.

The mining sector’s strength helped the FTSE 100 0.56% higher at the time of writing.

The move higher in miners today is a delayed response to the better-than-expected Chinese GDP released earlier in the week, which was overshadowed by Middle East tensions.

The top five risers were all miners at the time of writing with Anglo American jumping 3.6% closely followed by Rio Tinto adding 2.9%. Rio Tinto gained despite announcing lower quarterly iron ore shipments and production.

Although the miners were doing most of the FTSE 100’s heavy lifting on Wednesday, the big domestic story was UK inflation falling to 3.2%, and there was evidence of optimism in UK-focused stocks on Wednesday.

“Inflation is moving in the right direction and anyone who has wheeled a trolly around a supermarket over the past few weeks will have noticed that prices aren’t delivering those checkout shocks in the same way they were this time last year,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.

“Next month should look even better as the falling energy price cap is finally counted in the numbers, even if many households won’t have noticed much difference to their outgoings as their direct debits remain elevated to pay off outstanding balances.

“But even in this set of figures there are a few troubling issues, notably the stickiness of service sector inflation. This could be exacerbated by the increase in the National Living Wage which is putting pressure on many businesses to hike prices again to balance their books.”

Despite nagging concerns about service inflation, FTSE 100 consumer-facing stocks were higher, with JD Sports up 2%, easyJet gaining 1.9%, and Frasers Group adding 1.6%.

However, gains were kept in check by the fact that inflation was higher than expected, which is likely to do little to encourage the Bank of England to cut rates sooner.

“While inflation is certainly moving in the right direction, it’s still higher than the market expected, which will disappoint those expecting an earlier-than-forecast interest rate cut from the Bank of England,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

AIM movers: Bradda Head Lithium drilling progresses and Surface Transforms worst case scenario

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Sustainable household goods ingredients supplier Itaconix (LON: ITX) has reversed its recent decline following Monday’s 2023 results announcement. Management had already warned that 2024 revenues would be lower because it was focusing on improving margins. The 2023 figures were in line with expectations. The large cash pile enables Itaconix to be stricter about the margins of the business it does with merchants and other customers. The share price recovered 16.1% to 155p.

Bradda Head Lithium (LON: BHL) says results on the first four holes drilled on the Basin project in Arizona. This targets an increase in resource from 1.08mt to 2.5mt, which will trigger a $3m payment from Lithium Royalty Company. The rest of the drilling should be completed in early May, and this will be followed by an updated resource estimate in June. The share price improved 9.68% to 1.7p.

Serabi Gold (LON: SRB) produced 9,000 ounces of gold in the first quarter, which is the highest level since the third quarter of 2021, and grades should recover at Palito later this year. The Coringa project is progressing and could produce more than 11,000 ounces of gold this year. Total gold production could be near to 40,000 ounces this year. There was $11.1m in cash at the end of March 2024. The share price increased 8.55% to 63.5p.

Sales and lettings agency M Winkworth (LON: WINK) reported flat revenues and a dip in pre-tax profit from £2.5m to £2.1m. The London-based company continues to grow the dividend at a steady rate, and it is 11.7p/share for 2023. A recovery in pre-tax profit to £2.4m is anticipated this year. The shares rose 7.69% to 175p, which means that the forecast yield is 7% and the prospective multiple 12.

Eyewear supplier Inspecs (LON: SPEC) recovered from a £7.7m loss in 2022 to a £200,000 pre-tax profit in 2023 on revenues 1% ahead at £203.3m. Net debt is £3.4m lower at £24.2m. There was a slow start to 2024, but there are signs of improvement. The share price is 7.45% higher at 50.5p.

FALLERS

The board of Scirocco Energy (LON: SCIR) is proposing that the company should leave AIM. This is part of the process of a planned members’ voluntary liquidation, and it should save £100,000. The shareholder meeting is on 7 May. A matched bargain facility will be arranged. Distributions totalling 1.1p-1.2p/share between 2024 and 2027. The share price declined 14.6% to 0.235p.

Carbon fibre brake technology developer Surface Transforms (LON: SCE) has set out worst case scenarios for this year. Sales are expected to grow by at least 111% and possibly up to 165%. This will depend on the company’s ability to produce and deliver to customers. Scrap is being reduced. Zeus has withdrawn its forecasts until it talks to the company. It had forecast a 177% increase in revenues to £23m. The share price continues to fall to new lows, and it is down 16.7% to 3.25p.

Katoro Gold (LON: KAT) is taking action against Lake Victoria Gold, which is due to pay €792,000 for the joint venture transaction entered into in March 2022. The liability is disputed. The company is undertaking a technical review of the Haneti project and may focus on the potential nickel and copper. Potential acquisitions of development projects have been identified. The selection of a new chief executive is well advance, but there may be additional board restructuring. The share price dipped 13.9% to 0.0775p.

Mobile logistics technology provider Touchstar (LON: TST) shares have fallen today despite WH Ireland increasing its earnings and dividend forecasts for 2024 and 2025. In 2023, revenues were 7% ahead at £7.2m and despite lower gross margins, pre-tax profit was 60% higher at £680,000. Net cash was £3m at the end of 2023 and that enabled a total dividend of 2.5p/share – there was no dividend last year – covered three times by earnings. At 87.5p, down 7.89%, the shares are on a prospective multiple of less than nine.

ASOS shares jump as efficiency improves

ASOS shares were trading higher on Wednesday after announcing interim results for the 26 weeks to 3rd March.

The group had signalled a sharp drop in revenue in a trading statement released earlier this year so the 18% drop in sales was expected and already priced in.

Investors were more concerned with the company’s progress in streamlining the business and improving inventory efficiencies. In this respect, today’s announcement was a win.

ASOS set itself a target of reducing stock levels to £600m, which it beat, with stock falling to £593m. This was achieved in part by selling through 83% of its AW24 stock levels, a 17% improvement on last year.

The company’s focus on efficiencies has resulted in faster stock turnover with a 10% increase in 12-week sell-through levels, meaning as a group, they are carrying fresher products.

“As guided by ASOS’ management, sales have taken a dive and today’s reported 18% fall in revenue might not feel like progress. In response to a tougher environment, ASOS is undergoing a significant makeover, shifting focus to profitability and cash generation. The move to enhance the balance sheet and get the business on track for a more profitable future is encouraging, but it hasn’t been easy for investors,” said Guy Lawson-Johns, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Behind the scenes, there are early signs that strategic ambitions are starting to bear fruit. Efforts have been made to streamline the inventory and the group has cut £593mn in stock (£7mn away from pre-COVID levels).

“This move has not only released cash for reinvestment elsewhere in the business but has also led to a significant improvement in free cash flow of around £240mn year-on-year. Although there is still more work to be done, once this is accomplished, it should provide ASOS with some much-needed momentum.

“Under the new commercial model, improvements are also being seen in higher-margin own-brand sales. The roll-out of Test & React is helping it meet customers rapidly changing preferences and build towards its medium-term target of 30% own-brand sales. Despite these operational improvements, there are still structural hurdles to overcome. It’s no secret M&S and Next have been growing sales in the third-party brands ASOS is known for, and newer entrants like Temu are taking market share from the fringes.”

ASOS shares were 3.9% higher at 346p at the time of writing. Shares had been as high as 371p in early trade.

Tekcapital’s Innovative Eyewear inks US retail distribution agreement

Tekcapital’s Innovative Eyewear has announced a new partnership which will target the distribution of Lucyd smart eyewear in major retailing outlets across the United States.

The partnership is designed to accelerate Innovative Eyewear expansion by bolstering its distribution capabilities across the United States using Windsor Eyes’ well-established network within the optical retail sector.

Innovative Eyewear generated more revenue in Q4 2023 than it did in the preceding three quarters. Carrying this momentum into 2024 would mean a substantial increase in full-year revenue, and partnerships such as the one announced today will play a major part in achieving this. 

Nautica smart eyewear powered by Lucyd launched in early 2024 and Reebok and Eddie Bauer-licensed smart eyewear is set to be released before long.

A substantial distribution network built of key industry players will be integral to ramping up sales across the Lucyd range. 

“We are very pleased to announce our new partners at Windsor Eyes. We believe our proprietary smart frame technology, coupled with their decades of experience in the optical market, will be a powerful partnership that can potentially put smart eyewear in the hands of consumers throughout the U.S,” said Harrison Gross, CEO of Innovative Eyewear.

Windsor Eyes is a leading manufacturer and supplier of fashion eyewear, carrying brands including Bruno Magli, Sanctuary, Pier Martino, Adolfo, Eyecroxx, and their own brand names.

“We firmly believe that the era of smart eyewear going mainstream is upon us, and Innovative Eyewear has been at the forefront of this movement with their commitment to innovation, quality, and versatility. We are thrilled to collaborate with them to bring their groundbreaking smart eyewear to our major retail partners, ensuring widespread availability at leading optical points of sale across the United States,” said Ken Kitnick, President of Windsor Eyes.

Sosandar results were good, but not good enough

Take nothing away from Sosandar; their growth story has been remarkable.

In 2019, the fashion group generated £4.4m. According to Sosandar’s full-year trading statement released yesterday, 2024 FY’s revenue will be £46.3m.

The brand is obviously popular, and they have come a long way very quickly, but sales growth is slowing. Most importantly, despite huge revenue increases, the group struggles to turn a profit. 

As the saying goes, ‘revenue is vanity, profit is sanity’.

There was a slight miss on 2023’s top line and a marginal miss on the bottom line, but it means the group will record a net loss for the year. Nobody would have blinked an eye at the monetary value of the miss had it not meant a full-year loss just a year after recording its first profit. 

A loss for 2024FY was clearly a big disappointment for investors and shares fell 10% yesterday. The company said profitability had improved post-period but stopped short of quantifying the claim.

Sosandar’s valuation has been hard to justify, and the full-year trading statement makes it even harder.

Gross margins are strong at 57.6%, yet the operations supporting top-line growth are too cumbersome to generate a profit.

As we’ve seen with Superdry and ASOS, fashion retailing is a brutal business. Sosandar investors will be concerned that the group’s target of £100m revenue and 10% margin may not come soon enough, if at all. 

Revenue growth fell to 9% in 2023, a substantial slowdown from 2023. £100m revenue will take a long time to reach at that pace. 

The cash position of £8.3m is reasonable but not strong. At the current run rate, there is very little room for manoeuvre. Significant changes to the business model are required to improve efficiency and justify the share price. 

Sosandar shares are down 53% over the past year – it’s difficult to argue against the decline.