FTSE 100 declines ahead of interest rate decisions, Bunzl sinks

The FTSE 100 opened down sharply on Monday as traders reacted to UK wage data that created doubts about the Bank of England’s interest rate trajectory.

Strong growth in UK wages serves as a reminder the inflation problem hasn’t gone away and, crucially, interest rates may not fall as quickly as some would like.

“Regular pay in the UK rose 5.2% in the three months to October, edging up from the previous period and beating expectations. The increase was driven by private sector wages, while public sector growth slowed, and manufacturing led the way,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Adjusted for inflation, real wages continued to climb, but the stronger print has all but assured the Bank of England will hold rates steady on Thursday, with markets pricing in a 93% chance of no change. Investors are now in wait-and-see mode, watching whether the labour market cools in the wake of the Budget, with February’s rate cut prospects looking like a coin toss.”

Markets were on edge with both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England set to decide on interest rates this week. However, it is not so much the decisions themselves that are the concern, but what they may say about their course of action for next year. 

Whether they cut or not this week is of little consequence. Traders are more interested in how many times they will cut next year, and will pour over commentary provided alongside the rate decisions for insights about inflation and the wider economy. 

Many economists, and even central banks, have been wrongfooted by inflation and economic performance in 2024, making the start of 2025 a particularly precarious time for markets. 

Adding to concerns about interest rates and inflation, uncertainty around China is lingering, which weighed on commodity companies on Tuesday.

“Energy and pharma stocks weighed on the FTSE 100, causing the index to fall 0.7% to 8,203,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. 

“Investors are growing concerned that China’s bold plan to grow its economy faster isn’t working and that spells weaker demand for commodities.”

Bunzl was the FTSE 100’s top faller after the distribution group said it expected operating profit to be hit by deflation, particularly in Europe. The group did say it expected robust revenue growth in the coming year but disappointment about operating profit sent shares down by over 5%.

“It’s rare to see Bunzl doing anything other than plod along so a warning from the distribution company has caught the market by surprise,” Russ Mould explained.

“The company says stickier than expected deflation will hit profit and that’s upset the share price.

“Bunzl supplies items needed by companies to do their work but nothing that’s sold to customers, making it an essential cog in the wheel. It makes a small margin on supplying products, but a deflationary environment can act as a headwind if it has already bought a lot of stock at higher prices and has to sell them for less than originally expected.”

Magnificent Seven outlook for 2025 by Hargreaves Lansdown

Hargreaves Lansdown’s head of money and markets, Susannah Streeter, has issued a fascinating outlook for the world’s leading technology companies, the ‘Magnificent Seven’.

The US tech shares, including Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft, have been instrumental in equity market returns in 2024 as developments in the field of AI boost sentiment and earnings.

Here is Hargreaves Lansdown’s ‘Magnificent Seven’ outlook, in Susannah Streeter’s own words:

The Magnificent Seven are set to continue to exert huge influence over Wall Street performance, given the weight of the tech giants on indices. They’ve been pushed even higher this year on a wave of enthusiasm for the potential AI presents and also expectations of lighter-touch regulation with President Trump returning to the White House in January.  Nvidia is up 174% since the start of 2024 on a wave of AI euphoria pushing its market cap above $3.5 trillion dollars. Meta has risen by around 80% with its market cap now above $1.5 trillion and Tesla’s share price has risen by more than 86% year to date, helped by Trump winning the presidential election, pushing its market cap way over the £1 trillion mark. 

Alphabet

Regulation is still hovering like a cloud over the company with the US Department of Justice having indicated that it may ask a judge to break up Google to stop its search monopoly. However, even if Google’s power is diminished and it’s not able to be the default search engine on devices owned by big tech giants, it’s sheer might of reputation in the world of search is likely to propel users towards it, nonetheless. The power of Google over the latest quarter indicates that its already harnessing AI technology to deliver improvements and get more fingers searching and more eyes on screen. Advertisers are also seeing benefits in terms of higher engagement. 

It’s early days but given Alphabet’s super-deep pockets to pour into these new technologies, and its increasing dominance in the Cloud business, Google looks set to stay well positioned to take advantages of future developments. 

At the moment it looks like its present cloud offering is much better suited to this new AI phase of growth than it was in the previous wave where Amazon’s AWS and Microsoft’s Azure fared better. Google is not a one tricky pony when it comes to AI. It’s tentacle approach, wrapping the technology into many crevices of the business makes it an attractive proposition. Nevertheless, as the AI juggernaut continues to rumble, it’s far from clear who will be the winners, and it could well be an upstart rival rather than a regulator which poses the greatest risk to Google’s search dominance.

Meta

Meta has been on an Ozempic-like trajectory. It’s slimmed down drastically but there have been questions over whether it may end up losing muscle in the process. So far Meta has maintained its lean machine physique and it’s taking on the heavy lifting of big investment into AI.

Meta’s huge scale means that volumes keep driving upwards and with daily users growing 5% in the third quarter and more eyes on screen are set to continue to be attractive for advertisers, with its core AI spend helping engage users and improve ad performance. The extent to which Meta will keep pouring cash into AI developments will be under scrutiny, but if the giant keeps delivering results, it’s likely to be seen as crucial investment rather than overspend. However, investment in generative AI and the metaverse is arguably more speculative given the technology is more nascent and therefore risky. Meta is in a good position to drive AI-related growth but if revenue does not keep pace with investment margins may come under pressure and investors may turn nervier.

Microsoft

Microsoft has planted itself in the centre of the AI revolution and shoots of growth from artificial intelligence are sprouting fast in all divisions. Given the direction of travel, revenues from its cloud computing arm Azure, which helps other companies build out the capacity to use AI tools, are coming in thick and fast at an impressive 34% click in the last quarter. Growth is set to ease off a little, but it will still be on an enviable trajectory.

Microsoft’s products and services infiltrate all areas of work and play and the way it’s own software stack will integrate its new AI capabilities is an added benefit, though there will be a watch on just how eager companies will be to snap up new subscriptions offering access to Microsoft’s CoPilot across its apps. There are risks ahead, notably in the cloud space given the might of the competition and regulatory hurdles are likely to pop up given the rapid development of AI technologies.

Amazon

Amazon’s cloud business AWS continues to be Amazon’s most lucrative growth driver, with revenues rising 19%. Companies rely on AWS for core IT infrastructure, and with the new wave of AI demand, computing power is set to continue to be a hot commodity. Given the AI megatrend unfolding it bodes well for AWS, but at the same time Amazon is also having to invest heavily in the technology to stay ahead and the sums it’s been pouring in has caused some nervousness and revenues will have to keep accelerating to justify the spending.

Investors are also seeing the recovery story for its e-commerce business continue to unfold with another positive chapter. Margins have recovered following the huge cost-saving drive which saw layoffs worldwide. Continuing to build revenues will be crucial and there could be headwinds here given that USD consumers are showing some signs of being more cautious in their spending habits. While Amazon offers efficiency and same day service, it’s not the cheapest marketplace in town, but its Prime subscription membership is a big boost to recurrent revenue.

Apple

Apple’s biggest asset remains its brand, and its power has shown up yet again in the latest iPhone sales figures which were stronger than forecast. With the first wave of Apple Intelligence features being rolled out, this bodes well for customer upgrades ahead. Innovations on phones have been fewer and far between so there is a lot riding on the appeal of these new integrated tools. Apple’s privacy credentials look set to stay a focus, with teams working on deploying smaller on-device language models on phones. 

Growth in Services didn’t quite meet expectations in the last quarter but going forward this area of the business is set to be a key profit driver. There is higher margin potential and significant appeal for consumers with the bundling of popular apps like Music and TV, however growth will be reliant on phone sales. China is set to remain a tough market with competition intensifying from names like Huawei and despite Apple’s big fanbase it won’t be immune to economic hiccups elsewhere in the world.

Tesla

Tesla’s stock has soared since Donald Trump won the Presidential election, amid hopes Elon Musk’s right-hand man position will prompt policies favouring the EV maker. It’s likely that he will have sharp appetite in his new position for making ‘efficiencies’ which benefit his business interests. One area of focus for Musk is likely to be ensuring there’s an acceleration of regulatory approval for Tesla’s self-drive technology. Elon Musk is well-known for having a finger in many pies, which has caused nervousness in the past. Now he’s also at Trump’s top table concern may creep back in about the potential for his eye to be taken off the ball.  

Currently at Tesla, underlying performance looks better than it’s been for some time, despite huge incentives put in place to push sales in a tough market, especially in China. Tesla still has pulling power when it comes to EV purchase decisions, and with more affordable models on track for production in the first half of 2025, it should open up the wider market. A dip in demand for EVs has been tricky to navigate and cost-cutting efforts are a core part of the near-term margin recovery strategy. Tesla has balance sheet strength to head on its next chapter of growth but given its hot valuation, and the longer-term nature of its innovative technologies’ patience will need to be the name of the game.

Nvidia

Nvidia, the chip giant has seen stratospheric growth, clinching the spot as the most valuable company in the world in June, and its dominance in the world of accelerated computing and AI is set to continue next year. It’s forecast to deliver treble digit sales growth, with revenue expected to come in at a staggering $129 billion next year, as demand for its AI focused computing platforms barrels on. 

These expectations cement NVIDIA as a once in a generation company. A better-than-expected launch for the new Blackwell super chip is setting the tone for further near-term momentum. Data centre upgrades, and new cloud deployments all offer huge potential, and the company is also eyeing up big opportunities for dedicated AI infrastructure. However, for that to fully materialise AI needs to deliver strong financial returns for organisations that integrate it into their products and processes. 

At the moment demand appears to be insatiable and supply constraints are starting to emerge. Key manufacturing partners are planning to add capacity but blockages in the supply chain remain a risk to be wary of. Such a mouthwatering addressable market is also bound to attract competition but NVIDIA’s technological supremacy and growing financial strength will mean it’ll be very difficult to knock off its crown. Based on the market opportunity and its impressive track record, the valuation doesn’t look too demanding. But given the exaggerated impact the company’s performance has on investor returns worldwide, there will be added pressure to keep delivering.”

Strictly Money, an emerging UK wealthtech, has opened its first crowdfunding round with CrowdCube 

Strictly Money, an emerging UK wealthtech, has opened its first crowdfunding round with CrowdCube as it looks to bring its debit card and banking app to market with unique access to high return products 

Strictly Money: Unlocking Private Market Opportunities for All 

The global investment landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, and Strictly Money—a trailblazing fintech company—is at the forefront of this transformation. With a multi-billion-dollar addressable market in its sights, Strictly Money is democratising access to private investments, making high-yield opportunities available to individual investors. Traditionally, these opportunities were the exclusive domain of institutional players, but Strictly Money is changing the game. 

Breaking Barriers in Private Investments 

Historically, private markets have been off-limits to retail investors, confined to hedge funds, private equity, and other high-net-worth domains. Strictly Money’s platform will break these barriers, offering seamless access to private markets for retail investors who now account for 75% of all investors globally. This bold innovation empowers individuals to seize lucrative opportunities once reserved for institutional giants. 

The company’s cutting-edge technology bridges the gap between investors and assets, ensuring broader access and a more equitable playing field. With retail investors poised to dominate private markets over the next decade, Strictly Money’s platform is not just timely—it’s transformative. 

The Rise of the Retail Investor 

A profound shift is taking place in private markets, where retail investors are emerging as the dominant force. Armed with the tools and insights once exclusive to institutional players, individuals now demand direct and efficient access to investments. Research shows that 75% of retail investors are eager to bypass traditional intermediaries for faster, more transparent market entry. 

Strictly Money responds to this demand with its user-friendly platform, empowering investors to control their financial futures while tapping into high-yield private market opportunities. 

Why Strictly Money Stands Out 

Strictly Money’s success is underpinned by three core strengths that set it apart in a competitive landscape: 

  1. Best-in-Class Technology: The company’s sophisticated mobile app combines simplicity with functionality, offering investors an intuitive interface, real-time tracking, and robust decision-making tools. 
  1. Low Operational Risk via Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS): By leveraging BaaS, Strictly Money minimises operational complexities and risks while delivering seamless banking-like services without the burden of being a bank. 
  1. Exclusive Investment Opportunities: Through unique partnerships, Strictly Money unlocks access to high-value assets and markets traditionally reserved for institutional investors. 

Poised for Market Leadership 

Strictly Money is more than a platform; it’s a movement. The company is exploring a public listing that aligns perfectly with its growth-oriented ambitions.  

This strategic move will solidify Strictly Money’s leadership in the fintech and investment sectors while unlocking new opportunities for its growing community of investors. 

Join the Revolution 

Strictly Money is paving the way for a new era in investment by democratising private markets and providing retail investors with unparalleled access to opportunities. With an exceptional technology platform, minimal operational risk, and exclusive market access, the company is well-positioned to lead the private market revolution. 

Support Strictly Money’s vision for financial empowerment by joining the crowdfunding campaign on CrowdCube today. Together, we can redefine what it means to invest. 

Share Tip: Netcall – with strong revenue visibility and cash flow, this group is a clear organic growth opportunity, its shares, now 101p, have broker values up to 140p 

After this morning’s AGM Trading Update, market observers are anticipating that the shares of Netcall (LON:NET) will enjoy a progressive 2025. 

The Business 

Netcall is a UK-based provider of intelligent automation and customer engagement software, that is engaged in design, development, sale and support of software products and services.  

Its Liberty software platform with intelligent automation and customer engagement solutions helps organisations digitally transform their businesses faster and more efficiently, empowering them to create a leaner, more customer...

Inspired launches cash call to cut debt

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Energy optimisation and assurance services provider Inspired (LON: INSE) is improving its balance sheet via a placing raising £21.25m at 40p/share and a retail offer could raise up to £2m.

There is also an issue of £5m of 12% convertible loan notes, which are convertible at 80p/share. The shares come with warrants exercisable at 80p each.

Gresham House Asset Management and Regent Gas are supporting the fundraising and taking up all the convertible loan notes. Gresham House Asset Management is receiving a fee of 2.5% of the money raised in the placing and convertible issue. The directors are subscribing for £409,000 worth of shares.

Late in the year AIM-quoted Inspired won three large optimisation contracts with two starting in 2025. This is later than originally expected and increases working capital requirements. It meant that the 2024 pre-tax profit was downgraded by £5m to £12.3m.

Net debt was forecast at £58m at the end of 2024. Covenants for interest cover and leverage were recently changed, and this would ensure no breach following the decline in expected profit. The cash will not be received by the company before the end of the year – a general meeting will be held on 7 January – but Inspired will start 2025 with a much-reduced debt burden. The current revolving credit facility lasts until October 2026

The retail offer is to existing shareholders and closes at 4.30pm on Wednesday 18 December. The offer is through intermediaries listed at https://www.bookbuild.live/deals/W1LJ5Q/authorised-intermediaries.

The share price ended the day at 40p, and the announcement of the fundraising came after the close. Management argues that reducing the debt burden will help to encourage a re-rating for the shares.

There are currently 105 million shares in issue. Forecast 2025 earnings were 13.6p/share before the fundraising. This will be diluted by the issue of up to 58.1 million shares. Even so, the prospective multiple should still be in single figures.

FTSE 100 dragged lower by utilities and housebuilders

The FTSE 100 was weaker on Monday as housebuilders, utilities, and China-focused stocks weighed on the index.

If it weren’t for strength in pharma companies and marginal gains for the UK-focused banks, the FTSE 100’s 0.3% drop would be far more dramatic.

“The FTSE 100 dipped…despite the best efforts of the pharma and banking sectors to take the UK index forwards. Energy stocks acted as a drag while Diageo also gave up some of its recent gains,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Chinese consumers still aren’t splashing the cash, representing yet more evidence that Beijing’s economic stimulus programme isn’t cutting the mustard. Chinese retail sales grew by 3% in November, well below the 4.6% consensus estimate. That’s a big miss and puts even greater pressure on the government to be more creative with its efforts to drive household consumption.”

Investors sold UK-focused shares after news that the UK’s private sector’s employment had fallen at the fastest pace since 2021. An S&P Global Flash UK PMI survey showed employment tumbled amid concerns about the budget and rising taxes.

“Businesses are reporting a triple whammy of gloomy news as 2024 comes to a close, with economic growth stalled, employment slumping and inflation back on the rise,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Economic growth momentum has been lost since the robust expansion seen earlier in the year, as businesses and households have responded negatively to the new Labour government’s downbeat rhetoric and policies.”

So much for Labour’s focus on growth.

Housebuilders Persimmon, Berkeley Group Holdings and Taylor Wimpey felt concerns about the UK economy, with declines between 0.9% and 2.9%.

Entain was the FTSE 100’s top faller after announcing anti-money and counter-terrorism proceedings in Australia. The resultant 6% drop will be a real kick in the teeth for investors who were enjoying the fruits of a strategic shakeup after a prolonged period of poor performance.

“A company would never want the words ‘money laundering’ anywhere near it and that’s why news from gambling outfit Entain is potentially damaging, Russ Mould said.

“The Ladbrokes owner is being taken to court by the Australian regulator, significantly the first time it has launched civil proceedings against an online betting company, over serious non-compliance with the country’s money laundering and anti-terrorism financing laws.

“This doesn’t look to be a one-off incident, with Entain on the block for not conducting appropriate checks on 17 high-risk customers and allegedly helping them obscure their identities. The company’s recent history is chequered – it had to pay out a large sum last year for failing to prevent bribery at a former Turkish subsidiary and paid out fines over anti-money laundering failures in the UK in 2022.

Prospex Energy production boost

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Oil and gas company Prospex Energy (LON: PXEN) released further good news from its interests in Spain. The Vlura 1B development well has tested at flow rates of up to 17.7mmcf/day gross.

AIM-quoted Prospex Energy has a 7.2365% working interest in the Vlura field, onshore Spain, which was acquired earlier this year. The Vlura 1B well is going into production and will add to the production coming from the Vlura 1 ST3 well. The stabilised plateau rate of 10.6mmcf/day is equivalent to 1.5mmcf/day for Prospex Energy, because it has advanced cost recovery terms. That is higher than the other well. Gas prices have been rising.

Two further development wells are planned, and one already has the drilling permit. The additional cash that will be generated will fund further wells in Spain and Italy over the next two years.

Prospex Energy has three cash generating assets with additional wells for potential additional production. Group production will be equivalent to 2.9mmcf/day, double the previous level.

Higher production and gas prices mean that Prospex Energy has a positive outlook. There is also a potential project in Poland. The share price is 0.45p ahead at 7.3p, which is a 47% increase since the start of the year. The funding for the acquisition of the Vlura interest was at 6p/share.

AIM movers: Filtronic profit upgrade and XLMedia tender offer

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Shares in i-nexus Global (LON: INX) rebounded 60% to 2p following last Friday’s approval by shareholders of the cancelation of the AIM quotation. The share price is still lower than before the proposal was announced.

Powerhouse Energy (LON: PHE) has reached mechanical completion of the feedstock testing unit at Bridgend. This means that the waste to hydrogen technology can be demonstrated from next February. The share price rose 9.3% to 1.175p.

Quadrise (LON: QED) has had a busy December and the latest deal is a material transfer agreement with Panama-based thermal power producer Sparkle Power. Quadrise will install trial equipment at the 50MW El Giral power plant for the production of MSAR and bioMSAR for a diesel engine trial. The economic viability will be assessed. The share price moved ahead 10.5% to 4.465p.

Bradda Head Lithium (LON: BHL) says a notice of intent drilling permit has been approved for the Dragon target at the San Domingo project in the US. Further drilling permits have been applied for in the project area. There should be news from the AI driven mineral sorting of samples from the Jumbo target early in 2025. The share price improved 8.33% to 1.3p.

Cavendish is raising its forecasts for Filtronic (LON: FTC) following its latest trading update. Space and defence demand are propelling growth. Filtronic is providing E-band power amplifiers for ground stations to SpaceX and first half demand was particularly strong. The UK defence review could generate opportunities later in 2025. The 2024-25 pre-tax profit forecast has been raised from £7.7m to £9.6m. The share price increased 6.6% to 76.75p.

FALLERS

XLMedia (LON: XLM) plans to make a tender offer for shares up to £16m. Assuming a low return form the earnout on the disposal of the European online marketing operations then net cash available for distribution would be equivalent to 10.5p/share. A higher level of earnout could increase the figure to 12p/share, which is roughly double the amount of the tender offer. The share price dipped 23.4% to 9.5p.

Jubilee Metals (LON: JLP) says instability in the electricity supply in Zambia has hampered the Roan operations in particular and copper production guidance may not be achieved. Production guidance for the financial year was 5,850-7,500 tonnes of copper. Significantly enhanced commercial terms have been secured for the acquisition of the large waste rock project. The purchase price has been reduced to $18m, from $30m originally. The share price declined 20.8% to 3.8p.

North Sea oil and gas projects developer Orcadian Energy (LON: ORCA) reported a cash outflow from operations of £490,000 in the year to June 2024. Following recent farm out agreements, the focus of the company is joint venture HALO Offshore UK, which is seeking to acquire producing interests to make use of £52.6m of pre-trading capital expenditure to offset against tax. The share price slipped 19.2% to 10.5p.

Clinical diagnostics company Oxford BioDynamics (LON: OBD) chief executive Dr Jon Burrows has resigned, and Iain Ross is joining as executive chairman. He brings four decades of experience in the sector and the appointment is subject to a £4m fundraising. Oak Securities have been appointed joint broker and have agreed to make a cornerstone investment of £400,000. Cash is required by early 2025. The share price fell 9.67% to 1.084p.

Adsure Services is becoming a dividend hero

Adsure Services is fast becoming one of London’s dividend heroes. It’s certainly the Aquis Stock Exchange’s dividend king.

The internal audit and business assurance firm has hiked its interim dividend by a bumper 60% to 0.786p after gross profits surged 46% in the half-year period to 30th September.

Adsure Services has now paid or declared 2.266p in dividends since its IPO in 2023. This equates to around 11% of the company’s 20.5p current share price.

Higher profits were driven by a 19% jump in revenue and were achieved despite the company investing in ICT systems to support further growth. Revenue for the period increased to £5.1m from £4.3m in the same period a year prior.  

The significant revenue increase resulted from providing existing clients with additional complimentary services, representing delivery on one of Adsure’s strategic pillars to drive growth.

“The Board is pleased to announce a period of significant growth for the Group, leading to a profitable performance at the interim stage. This success is attributed to the dedication of our staff and the compelling offerings we provide to our customers,” said Kevin Limn, Chief Executive Officer of Adsure Services PLC.

Providing an insight into how investors can expect Adsure to perform in their second half, CEO Kevin Limn pointed to an encouraging start to the period with strength in two leading business areas.

“The second half has started positively, and we are seeing strong momentum across our Risk & Assurance and Risk & Advisory divisions,” Limn said.

Sustainable dividend growth

Adsure Services has everything you want from an income share. Cashflows are reliable and recurring. The board has shown a propensity to pass increases in profit directly onto shareholders. These factors are key to making a share a dividend hero.

Adsure enjoys the reliability of revenues from long-term government-funded organisations, including NHS trust, emergency services, local government and housing associations. Contracts are typically between two and five years, providing clear revenue visibility to support future revenue growth.

In addition to reliable shareholder returns through increasing dividends, Adsure Services offers investors the growth opportunity of cutting-edge technology being developed with the assistance of an Innovate UK grant.

Utilising its deep understanding of government-funded processes at the heart of our everyday lives, Adsure Services has identified opportunities to further improve efficiencies with the use of artificial intelligence. Adsure is developing a proprietary AI large language model designed to help create fresh revenue channels and provide further efficiencies for their clients.

Frasers Group and boohoo Group – the fight goes on – skullduggery suggested, property sale problems – and a ‘fly on the wall’! 

One of my early Christmas wishes is to be a ‘fly on the wall’ of a certain office in Manchester. 

At the end of this week, Friday 20th December, the warring factions of Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group (LON:FRAS) and Mahmud Kamani’s boohoo Group (LON:BOO) will be facing each other in a voting contest. 

There will be a General Meeting for boohoo shareholders being held at 10am that day at the law firm offices of Addleshaw Goddard at One St Peter’s Square, Manchester. 

The business on hand concerns efforts by Ashley to oust Kamani from the Board of the group that he co-founde...