Frasers Group profitability improves as ‘Elevation Strategy’ yields results

Frasers Group’s profitability improved materially in the full-year ended 28th April as the fashion retailing group repositioned its product strategy to focus on better thought of brands.

The group has been associated with tired brands at the end of their life, which Frasers Group sold at a discount through outlets including Sports Direct.

The discounting even started to creep into House of Fraser, damaging perceptions of that brand and risked the entire group being perceived as a B&M for dead fashion brands.

The company set about rectifying this with its ‘Elevation Strategy’ focused on attracting a wider audience with high-profile brands – and it’s working.

The successful execution of the Elevation Strategy has strengthened brand partnerships, including the onboarding of new brands such as The North Face, On, and Columbia.

This helped drive a strong year with Adjusted Profit Before Tax (APBT) reaching £544.8 million, a 13.1% increase and at the upper end of the guidance range. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) saw a significant rise of 33.6% to 95.8p. The firm anticipates continued strong growth, projecting APBT for the fiscal year 2025 to be between £575 million and £625 million.

Sports Direct delivered year-on-year growth in both revenue and gross profit as the company strengthened relationships with third-party brands and worked on Sports Direct’s market positioning.

Demonstrating a clear growth strategy, Sports Direct are increasing presence in the Nordic countries, establishing a joint venture in Southeast Asia, and the ongoing acquisition of a leading sports retailer in the Netherlands.

“This has been a break-out year for building Frasers’ future growth. As well as delivering a strong trading performance, particularly from Sports Direct, we made significant progress with our Elevation Strategy,” said Michael Murray, Chief Executive of Frasers Group.

“We expanded our retail ecosystem, establishing valuable partnerships with new brands. Our brand relationships have never been stronger, giving us invaluable support as we continue the international expansion of our business. We invested in group-wide operational efficiencies in warehouse automation and digital infrastructure, which we expect to yield a tangible impact as early as FY25. And we generated new growth opportunities with the rollout of Frasers Plus, including recently signing our first third party partner in THG.

“I’m really proud of what we have achieved at Frasers this year and would like to thank all colleagues for their continued hard work and our brand partners for their support. Together, we are building a resilient, profitable growth retail ecosystem that delivers exceptional value for our partners, consumers and shareholders. We have built a lot of momentum this year and are entering the new financial year with many exciting growth opportunities ahead of us, which we will continue to invest in for the long-term benefit of the Group.”  

A strategic partnership with THG plc has been agreed upon, which will integrate Frasers Plus into THG’s Ingenuity platform, marking the first external partnership for Frasers Plus.

The launch of Frasers Plus, the FCA-regulated credit scheme, has shown encouraging early performance as the group gets in on the finance game. Frasers have set ambitious long-term goals for Frasers Plus, including over £1 billion in sales, £600 million in balances with a yield exceeding 15%, and more than 2 million active customers.

Avacta Group elects to settle convertible bond payment in cash

Avacta Group has announced its decision to settle the upcoming July quarterly amortisation payment for its unsecured convertible bonds in cash. The payment, totalling £3.13 million, comprises £2.55 million in principal and £580,000 in interest.

The company, known for developing innovative cancer treatments and diagnostics, said it carefully deliberates each payment as it arises. The board considers various factors, including the firm’s cash runway, potential shareholder dilution, and overall business outlook before making a decision.

Investors will be pleased that this particular payment has been settled in cash and avoids any dilution for investors.

Following this cash settlement, the outstanding principal on Avacta’s convertible bonds will decrease by £2.55 million to £33.15 million.

Avacta raised around £30m by way of a placing in Q1 2024 to develop the AVA6000 pre|CISION molecule targeting improvements in patient outcomes during chemotherapy.

FTSE 100 falls as UK inflation comes in hotter than expected

The FTSE 100 dipped on Wednesday after UK inflation data made a Bank of England rate cut in August less likely. 

Many investors were hoping the stars are aligning for a reduction in borrowing costs and today’s data will only serve to dash these hopes. 

“UK stocks took a tumble after components of the latest inflation data lowered the chances of a near-term interest rate cut from the Bank of England,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

“Services inflation still looks too high for comfort. The Bank has long said it is data-driven and today’s numbers don’t look soft enough across the board to convince the policy committee to change gear.

UK inflation remained steady at 2% – the Bank of England’s target – yet the reading was higher than expected, fuelling doubts about the trajectory of inflation in the coming months. 

“The BoE hawks take the victory. UK inflation held steady at 2% in June, slightly above expectations, driven by rising hotel and restaurant prices, while clothing prices fell. This persistent inflation reduces the likelihood of an August rate cut, with markets reacting cautiously. Further wage data on Thursday will be crucial in shaping future monetary policy decisions,” said Sam North, analyst at investment platform eToro.

“The GBP initially spiked higher before pulling back to pre-release levels. For those hawkish BOE members, the ones who wanted to see the central bank keep things on hold again next month, this is exactly what they would have wanted to see. Whilst services inflation was higher, it wasn’t higher than the previous month. A silver lining for the dove maybe but I would be surprised now to see the BOE cut rates on August 1st.”

The Bank of England has been clear that it wants to see sustained evidence of falling inflation, and the figures released this morning do not fit the bill. 

The disappointment with this morning’s release was evident in UK-centric stocks with retailers including JD Sports, Frasers Group and Next among the top fallers.

Although there will be concerns about borrowing costs and the impact on the real economy, some of the FTSE 100’s weakness on Wednesday can be attributed to the stronger pound that weighed on mega-cap overseas earners such as AstraZeneca.

Antofagasta was the top faller, down 4%, as the copper miner followed the recent trend of releasing poor production updates. Despite production rising 20% in the last quarter, full-year production is down, and the group lowered its guidance for the year.

AIM movers: K3 Business Technology interim loss and Renold beats expectations

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Great Western Mining Corp (LON: GWMO) says 50%-owned Western Milling has received a water pollution control permit authorising the construction and operation of the mill for processing precious metal concentrates from mining waste at Sodaville, Nevada. This is subject to appeal by 26 July. The share price increased 11.5% to 0.0435p.

Recent drilling by Oracle Power (LON: ORCP) has increased the target zone at the Northern Zone Intrusive Hosted gold project. Further drilling is planned in mid-August. The share price improved 11.9% to 0.0235p.

Graphene technology developer Versarien (LON: VRS) has converted its €1.25m convertible loan and accrued interest of €207,000 into shares in Gnanomat. That increases its stake from 62% to 90%. This will improve the balance sheet of Gnanomat and help to apply for grant funding in Madrid. The share price recovered 6.45% to 0.0825p.

Vela Technologies (LON: VELA) has subscribed for £300,000 of convertible loan notes from fully listed Liberia-based gold explorer Hamak Gold (LON: HAMA) by issuing 2.42 million shares at 0.012375p. This is an opportunistic, short-term investment because it does not fit the core investment policy. The loan notes are redeemable on 16 July and the annual interest rate is 10%. The conversion price is the lower of a 25% discount to the average market price for five days prior to conversion and 3p/share. The Hamak Gold share price is 1.075p. Hamak Gold hopes to take advantage of a narrowing of the share discount to the NAV of Vela Technologies, which is currently around two-thirds. The Vela Technologies share price moved up 4.55% to 0.0115p.

FALLERS

K3 Business Technology (LON: KBT) shares continue their downward trajectory following the latest interims. The enterprise software provider edged up annualised recurring revenues of £24.9m. There was an interim loss, but full year pre-tax profit is expected to double to £1.6m. Year end net cash is expected to be £9.3m. Eric Dodd recently became chief executive. The share price declined 7.89% to 87.5p.

Chain and transmission equipment manufacturer Renold (LON: RNO) beat upgraded full year expectations and there is another upgrade for the year to March 2025. Last year, pre-tax profit improved from £18.6m to £22.1m even though there was a small decline in revenues. Efficiency improvements are increasing margins. Net debt has fallen to £24.9m after acquisition payments and share buy backs. There was £36m in cash generated from operations. A 0.5p/share dividend has been declared. The 2024-25 pre-tax profit forecast is £22.8m. There was some inevitable profit taking after the recent rise and the share price slipped 4.35% to 59.3p. It is still 69% higher this year.

Data analysis technology developer Cirata (LON: CRTA) has completed a £5.6m fundraising at 55p/share. This follows last year’s $30m fundraising at 50p/share. The cost base has been more than halved to $20m. Bookings are growing and forecast full year bookings are $13m-$15m. The proceeds of the placing could take the business to cash flow breakeven. The share price dipped 4.56% to 54.4p.

Video games developer Team17 Group (LON: TM17) is trading in line with expectations. A pre-tax profit of £40.3m is forecast for 2024. The share price fell 4.03% to 297.5p.

Currys – Partnering With Microsoft’s Copilot AI, This Technology Retailer Is Heading Higher In Price – AGM And Update Due Soon 

Get ready to really getting switched on to see a major marketing of Microsoft’s Copilot+PC range of services, with Currys (LON:CURY) being the exclusive UK partner. 

The Microsoft product was launched in 2023 but it is now gaining big market awareness. 

Designed to work with Microsoft 365 applications and Bing, Copilot is an AI-powered tool that helps users with productivity, creativity and communication tasks – it is available for Windows, Mac, Apple iOS and Android. 

The Business 

Currys is a leading omnichannel retailer of technology products and services, operating through online and 719 stores in 6 countries.  

In the UK&I it trades as Currys; and in the Nordics under the Elkjøp brand.  

In each of these markets it is the market leader, employing in total some 24,000 capable and committed group colleagues.  

The £877m capitalised group’s operations are supported by a sourcing office in Hong Kong, state-of-the-art repair facilities and an extensive distribution network, enabling fast and efficient delivery to stores and homes. 

Recent Finals – 27th June 

For the year ended 27th April the group reported a 4% drop in group revenues to £8.48bn (£8.88bn) but improved its adjusted pre-tax profits by 10% to £118m (£107m), with earnings per share of 7.9p (7.4p). 

It was quite a year – one of disposal and reorganisation. 

CEO Alex Baldock stated that: 

“Our performance continues to strengthen.  

We’ve kept up our encouraging momentum in the UK&I, our Nordics business is getting back on track, and we’re stronger financially.   

We can see our progress in ever-more engaged colleagues, more satisfied customers and better financial performance.  

Continued growth in sales of solutions and services were particular highlights: they’re good for customers, margins and recurring revenues, and they lean on Currys’ competitive strengths.  

We’re planning prudently but confidently for the year ahead, on course to grow both profits and cashflow while carefully stepping back up to more normal investment levels. 

Encouraged as we are by our progress, we know we can go further.  

For one thing, we expect AI-powered technology to be the most exciting new product cycle since the tablet in 2010.  

With our partnerships, scale and expert colleagues to demystify AI, we’re best-placed to benefit.” 

Analysts View 

Wayne Brown and Anubhav Malhotra at Panmure Liberum rate the group’s shares as a Buy, with a Price Objective of 135p. 

They are getting excited by the potential of Currys being the exclusive partner to Microsoft for the launch of their recent Copilot+PC range, commenting that: 

“Early adoption will kick-start interest, but industry experts have 60% of all PC’s being AI enabled by 2027 – that could transform growth alone for Currys.  

While we understand consumers may initially be cautious of AI, the practical applications and convenience that these devices can bring to one’s life, has the power to fundamentally transform lifestyles, habits and how we use technology/devices akin to the smartphone in 2007.” 

The brokers are looking for the current year to end April 2025 to show some £8.37bn of sales, while adjusted pre-tax profits could rise to £130.2m, worth 8.7p in earnings per share. 

Jumping forward to 2026 they estimate £8.54bn sales, £155.1m profits and 10.3p in earnings per share. 

Better margins show through with the analyst assumptions for 2027, with £8.71bn turnover, £178.2m of profits and 11.9p in earnings per share. 

Over at Deutsche Bank their analyst Adam Cochrane has recently upped his rating from Hold to Buy for the group’s shares, setting a 95p Price Objective and stating that: 

“The potential for replacement cycles in electronics, four years on from the Covid surge in demand, sits outside of forecasts and company planning assumptions – Currys is now well placed to benefit from improving electricals demand.” 

Some 9 analysts follow the company, the consensus average Price Objective is 96.50p. 

My View 

Between now and the group holding its AGM on Thursday 5th September (as well as issuing its Trading Update) I would expect this group’s shares to move a lot higher. 

With well over 60% of the group’s equity being held by investment professionals, plus 6.6% held by Frasers Group, together with ex-Carphone boss David Ross holding 4.4%, this shareholders list is very strong. 

It is also an undervalued situation, especially now that its Management is running a tighter ship. 

It could still be wide open to a foreign predator, particularly so if the shares, now at 77.45p, continue to be so under-rated by the market. 

Just look at those estimates for group earnings over the next three years – this stock is CHEAP

Ocado shares valued three times current price – Morningstar

Morningstar analysts have reacted to yesterday’s Ocado results with a fair value estimate suggesting Ocado is worth three times the current share price.

Yesterday, Ocado reported a reassuring increase in revenue and a very encouraging increase in EBITDA guidance for the year. After many periods of disappointing updates, Ocado finally produced respectable increases in revenue, demonstrating progress in the rollout of its technology business and higher engagement with premium food delivery in conjunction with M&S.

Shares spiked higher early in the session after results were released, but the gains diminished with short-term traders banking profits as the session progressed.

However, those with longer time frames, such as the equity analysts at Morningstar, see the potential for substantial appreciation in the share price as the company gains further traction in its grocery delivery service, and the technology element of Ocado’s product suite.

“Ocado shareholders finally received some good news yesterday in the form of a strong half year update, with group revenues up almost 13%. The strong share price reaction came as management upgraded profit guidance for the full year,” explained Michael Field, European Equity Strategist, Morningstar.

“Underlying this strong performance was Ocado’s Technology Solutions business, the area of the company that deals with automation, fulfilment, and the online grocery market. Technology Solutions saw growth of more than 20% in the first half of the year, with an operating margin of 14.5%, materially higher than the rest of the Ocado business. 

“Some investors might expect that shares are up with events after a near 15% move in the share price, but we believe there is far more to come with this story. Our fair value estimate for this stock is GBX 920, almost triple the current share price!

“How do we square the difference between our fair value and the GBX 400 consensus target price? Ultimately it comes down to small differences in assumptions, but over a very long time period. Over the longer term we believe online penetration will reach 25% of the grocery market, with this generating strong growth for both Ocado’s retail and technology solutions businesses.

Ocado shares were trading at 358p at the time of writing.

hVIVO gathers momentum as revenue jumps 30%

hVIVO gathered momentum in the first half of 2024 achieving a 30.6% increase in revenue to £35.6 million compared to £27.3 million in the same period last year.

The company’s EBITDA margin has also seen a significant boost, rising to approximately 24% from 19.1% in H1 2023. This improvement is attributed to enhanced operational efficiencies and better utilisation of quarantine facilities.

UK Investor Magazine recently included hVIVO in our ‘Four UK Small Cap Growth Shares to Watch Summer 2024’. Today’s results highlight just why we included hVIVO.

The combination of higher revenue and operational strength saw hVIVO reaffirm its full-year revenue guidance of £62 million. hVIVO has set a medium-term revenue target of £100 million by 2028.

Investors will be pleased to see the company’s contracted orderbook at £71 million as of 30 June 2024, providing good visibility into 2025. Notably, 100% of the full-year 2024 revenue guidance is already contracted.

hVIVO’s new facility in Canary Wharf is now fully operational, positioning the company for future growth. This state-of-the-art quarantine facility offers increased capacity and containment level 3 capability, allowing hVIVO to expand its core human challenge trial offering to include new pathogen models.

hVIVO continues to diversify its service offering, which is expected to positively impact growth and margins. New services include Phase II and Phase III field studies, volunteer recruitment services, and standalone hLAB services.

In a significant development, hVIVO recently secured its largest field study contract to date. The company has been selected as the sole UK clinical site for a multicentre study, with plans to enrol up to 1,000 volunteers.

“The results of H1 2024 reflect the hard work, flexibility and commitment of the team. During a period of significant activity including the build-out and move to a new facility, we have not only materially increased our revenue but also further improved our margins. The concurrent running of three different facilities helped to boost our revenues for H1 2024, creating an expected H1 2024 weighting,” said Yamin ‘Mo’ Khan, Chief Executive Officer of hVIVO.

“We have full visibility over our expected 2024 revenues and continue to deliver on our sustainable growth strategy. The orderbook remains strong in spite of record revenue delivery in H1 2024. The recent Omicron characterisation study contract and the award of our largest field study to date are two key sales highlights for H1 2024. In addition, the current sales pipeline includes several advanced stage opportunities that we expect to convert in the coming months.  

“The outlook for hVIVO is positive as we welcomed our first volunteers into our new facility at Canary Wharf – the world’s largest human challenge trial unit. I believe we have laid the foundations for strong performance in the months and years ahead.”

Windward momentum continues

Maritime AI technology services provider Windward (LON: WNWD) sparked a second forecast revenues upgrade of the year following its interim trading statement. The company is still on course to achieve monthly EBITDA breakeven by the end of the year.

Windward continues to add new clients for its compliance and freight visibility services. Even so, it has barely scratched the surface of the potential market. It has signed up new channel partners London Stock Exchange Group and RightShip.

Windward recently launched Generative AI chatbot Maritime AI, which makes it easier and more efficient ...

S&P 500 Technical Outlook 16th July

For the past couple of weeks we have been a little cautious on the markets as price had seemed over stretched on the recent optimism, this bearish skew was strengthened with the Hindenburg Omen being triggered which highlighted how so much of this move was down to just a few names in the index, and not due to broad buying right across the market.

However as highlighted last week the power of these few names has again been too strong, so despite ongoing concerns that the strength is rather too concentrated to be ideal, there is still underlying buying interest.

We have drawn a new trend channel where price action has even been able to accelerate the already strong bullish trends, black lines on chart. Leading to some market commentators referring to “melt-up” conditions.

As stated in our last note the major concern for the days ahead is the serious risk that President Biden may yet drop out of the election race, and could even step down as President due to his now impossible to ignore serious mental decline. Previously the administration, and much of the US left leaning media, had played down this mental decline as they believed he was still able to win the election.

After the truly disastrous debate performance, and continued major gaffs, all hopes of a successful campaign have gone. So now the US media has started to turn on Biden as they can see another Trump presidency looming, not because they were not aware of this before, but because they now know they cannot lie enough to cover it up anymore.

This could well cause a significant shock to the markets and increase volatility as the probability of another Trump presidency gets priced in. So traders do need to be wary of possible volatility ahead.

This volatility could be a near term shock to the down-side due to the strong short term trends which may have over extended. However we would not turn more negative until/unless these new support areas are broken, currently down around 5450. Moves under here would still “only” drop the index back into the previous trading range, blue region on chart. So to turn outright negative we would need to see the market dropping under 5300, giving the index plenty of room to move in the coming days if near term volatility does emerge on political developments.

Spectra Systems shares jump after major contract win with central bank

Spectra Systems Corporation, a leading provider of high-speed banknote authentication and security technologies, has announced an agreement worth £29.7 million to manufacture sensors for an existing central bank customer.

Spectra Systems shares were 13% higher on the back of the news on Tuesday.

The contract is expected to expand further, with an additional £1.3 million tranche anticipated later this year upon signing of the related manufacturing agreement. This would bring the total value of the sensor manufacturing contract to £31 million.

Revenue from this substantial deal is projected to be recognised from the first quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of 2027, with additional manufacturing contract revenues of about £3.5 million expected to continue until 2029.

“This long-awaited contract for the third generation of sensors follows after over $14.8 million of development funding by our customer and reflects both the continued need for banknotes as well as the trust our customer has in Spectra Systems,” said Dr. Nabil Lawandy, Chief Executive Officer.