Lloyds shares shake off motor finance charge to hit five-year high

Lloyds shares shrugged off a significant motor finance charge to produce the best initial reaction so far to this round of FY2024 results from FTSE 100 banks.

Shares rose 2% after releasing the full-year and fourth-quarter results to hit the highest intraday levels since early 2020.

Motor finance was always going to be the big talking point around Lloyd’s result, and the £700m wouldn’t have come as a surprise to investors. It was higher than some had expected, but it avoided the worst-case scenario.

However, as much of a disappointment as the motor financing charge is, Lloyds is actually doing quite well.

Stripping out the impact of the motoring charges, Lloyds underlying fourth quarter performance was ahead of expectations. Net income for the quarter came in at £4.37bn, marginally higher than the quarter before, and underlying net interest income was also higher.

Lloyds’ strong financial performance was underpinned by robust demand for mortgages, despite ongoing concerns about affordability. Lloyds UK mortgage book grew by £6.1 billion in 2024 and was central to increasing overall loans to £459.1bn.

“Lloyds has capped off a strong year with a clouded fourth-quarter result, setting aside a hefty £700m provision for potential charges related to the ongoing motor finance saga. While you could argue the provision is overly cautious, Lloyds holds the largest exposure of any major UK bank, and the outcome remains uncertain. Despite this, the stock is up over 40% in the past year, reflecting a solid banking outlook and robust performance,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Beneath the surface, Lloyds is delivering strong results. Excluding the motor finance charge, fourth-quarter figures exceeded expectations, thanks to borrowers performing better than anticipated. Remarkably, Lloyds has managed to improve its loan quality over the course of the year, defying fears that borrowers would buckle under the pressure of persistent inflation.”

This strength was a key driving force in the Lloyds share price popping 2% higher on Thursday.

Lloyds shares were at a fascinating juncture going into results, with the stocks trading near the top of a range that has held over the past year. Today’s results have pushed Lloyds to the highest levels since 2020, but only marginally.

Whether Lloyds’s share price can continue to be higher will affect the health of the UK economy during 2025, as the bank seems to be doing everything right from an operational perspective.

Investors will also be delighted at the sheer level of distributions, which were bolstered by a fresh £1.7bn share buyback.

“There’s more than meets the eye in this year-end story and having returned around 10% of its current market cap to investors over 2024, there’s been plenty to cheer,” Britzman concluded.


SRT Marine Systems – maritime domain awareness specialist responds to press comment in the East following its shares collapsing 15.5% yesterday

Yesterday the shares of SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT), the marine domain awareness specialist, fell by 15.5% to 46.50p, following comments about the company’s founder Simon Tucker published in the Philippines press. 
Company Response to Philippine press reports 
“SRT notes the recent share price movement and reporting in the Philippine press with regard to the IMEMS fisheries project. 
As noted via an announcement on 24 April 2024, SRT clarifies that the IMEMS contract was won following an open and competitive international tender, which has been successfully implemented and is o...

Genflow Biosciences achieve significant milestone in longevity IP protection

Genflow Biosciences Plc, the London-listed biotechnology company, has achieved a significant milestone in its pursuit of longevity research patents.

Genflow Biosciences offers investors exposure to the existing world of longevity and anti-ageing and is one of very few listed longevity pureplays globally.

The firm announced that its licensed patent application for SIRT6 variants has successfully cleared the European Patent Office’s (EPO) supplementary search phase without additional queries.

SIRT6 is a gene recognised for its fundamental role in DNA repair, metabolism, and longevity. The patent’s progression to the national phase represents a crucial advancement in securing European-wide protection for this innovative therapeutic approach.

The patent application, which focuses on preventing and treating age-related diseases through SIRT6 variants, was initially submitted in May 2022 through a collaboration between prestigious American institutions: the University of Rochester, Columbia University, and the Albert Einstein College of Medicine.

The application, filed under number EP 22 808 414.1, has met all requirements set forth by the European Patent Convention. The company now preparing to advance the application ahead of the July 2025 deadline.

“This positive outcome represents a significant step forward in securing broad intellectual property protection for our innovative work on SIRT6 variants,” said Dr. Eric Leire, CEO of Genflow.

“This milestone strengthens our position in SIRT6-based therapeutics and accelerates our mission to develop effective treatments for age-related diseases.”

FTSE 100 slips after UK CPI hits 3%

The FTSE 100 slipped on Wednesday as UK CPI inflation soared to 3%, and soft results from Glencore weighed on the index. 

A weaker pound helped contain losses for London’s flagship index. Still, the inevitable losses in house builders after the stronger-than-expected inflation reading meant the FTSE 100 struggled to turn positive after starting the session in the red.

UK CPI for January hit 3%, hotter than the 2.8% expected by economists, and poured cold water on hopes of a rate cut at the next Bank of England meeting.

“The FTSE 100 dipped at the open on Wednesday, dragged lower by weakness among housebuilders and as commodities giant Glencore fell on poorly received results,” said AJ Bell head of investment analysis Laith Khalaf.

“Higher-than-expected UK inflation was seen as reducing the chances of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England, which is bad news for a housebuilding sector reliant for demand on mortgage availability and affordability.”

Barratt Redrow was one of the most heavily hit housebuilders, with shares declining more than 2%. Taylor Wimpey fell by a similar amount.

Glencore was the FTSE 100’s biggest loser, falling 7%, after the diversified miner said EBITDA declined 16% due to lower coal prices. Copper was a bright spot for Glencore, with volumes growing 4% over the year. 

Suggestions Glencore was considering ditching its London listing wouldn’t have helped sentiment around the stock.

“Despite returning $2.2 billion to shareholders, Glencore is propping up the FTSE this morning after posting a second consecutive year of falling profit. It should be noted this was against a very high bar when we saw soaring metals prices which have since cooled, and as such so have miners such as Glencore’s bumper profits,” said Adam Vettese, market analyst at eToro.

“Trump’s potential tariffs on cars and semiconductors also threaten to weigh on demand for metals such as copper which Glencore and many of its sector peers will be watching closely.”

Despite concerns about the impact of Trump’s tariffs, Antofagasta was again the top riser following a well-received set of results yesterday. Anto gained another 3% and is now 19% higher on the year.

HSBC shares were flat following the release of Q4 and full-year 2024 results. The stock has embarked on a sharp rally through 2024, and investors will be pleased the stock held its own today and didn’t follow peers on the recent trend after pulling back after announcing results.

AIM movers: Tracsis tap-in technology rail deal and Jet2 load factors dip

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Rail software and technology company Tracsis (LON: TRCS) has won the contract to provide the ‘tap converter’ ticketing technology that will enable pay-as-you-go travel across the UK rail network. Tracsis previously supplied a similar service to some train operators. This will generate a small, fixed payment to Tracsis with every journey and could generate highly significant revenues. If 10% of journeys are via PAYG then this could generate £3m of annual revenues. The technology will not be deployed until 2026 and will take time to roll out, so it does not affect the 2024-25 forecasts and is not included in the 2025-26 pre-tax profit forecast of £15.3m. The Department of Transport has published a document outlining plans for Great British Rail and this should lead to the ending of uncertainty of the future of rail. The share price jumped 15.3% to 415p.

LPA Group (LON: LPA) finance director Stuart Stanyard doubled his shareholding in the electromechanical and electronic components supplier by acquiring 20,000 shares at 56.1p/share. The share price improved 5.5% to 57.5p.

Keystone Law (LON: KEYS) says trading is ahead of expectations and there has been an acceleration in net recruitment of lawyers in the second half of the year to January 2025. Average revenues per principal rose 4% to £220,000. Panmure Liberum increased its pre-tax profit forecast from £11.9m to £12.5m. Net cash has been upgraded to £9.5m and the total dividend forecast has been raised from 18.6p/share to 19.6p/share. Profit growth will be held back by higher National Insurance costs in 2025-26. The share price recovered 4.85% to 540p.

Ondine Biomedical Inc (LON: OBI) believes that its light-activated antimicrobial treatment for nasal decolonisation could become the first FDA-approved treatment for the prevention of surgical site infections. These infections represent 6% of costs of public sector health budgets in the EU. In the US it could increase admission costs by $20,000/patient. A phase 3 trial is ongoing in the US. The share price 4.35% to 12p.

FALLERS

Zytronic (LON: ZYT) has completed the sale process for it touch screen displays business and there were no attractive offers. The business will be wound down. There is cash of £3.3m, but there will be costs for closing the business. The share price slipped 19.1% to 42.5p, which values the Zytronic at £4.3m.

Airline and tour operator Jet2 (LON: JET2) says that the winter 2024-25 load fact dipped 2.2 percentage points in the year to March 2025, although the majority of that declined is down to the later Easter this year. There was also a 14% increase in capacity. Canaccord Genuity still expects pre-tax profit to improve from £520m to more than £563m even though margins are lower. There could be an additional gain on the sale of aircraft. Bookings are being made later. Although bookings for the summer are 7% ahead that is similar to the rise in capacity. Higher labour-related costs and other inflationary pressures, combined with investment in new bases at Luton and Bournemouth will hold back profit growth this year. The 2025-26 pre-tax profit forecast has been trimmed from £574.4m to £573.2m. The share price is 10.9% lower at 1395p.  

Infrastructure-as-a-Service provider Beeks Financial Cloud (LON: BKS) says interim revenues will be 22% ahead at £15.8m and pre-tax profit is 31% higher at £1.8m. Net cash was £6.6m at the end of 2024 and a £1.2m payment was received in £1.2m. A new contract has been awarded by the Mexican Stock Exchange and Canaccord Genuity believes that the deal could be bigger than the one with the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Canaccord Genuity is maintaining its 2024-25 pre-tax profit forecast of £6.1m. The share price fell 9.6% to 292p.

Global Petroleum (LON: GBP) has applied for a new exploration licence north of the current exploration licence 08/3497 in Western Australia. The new area has similar gold exploration targets. The share price declined 8.47% to 0.135p.

HSBC announces fresh $2bn buyback after strong year for wealth unit

HSBC shares flatlined on Wednesday after the FTSE 100 banking giant released Q4 and full-year results that were largely ahead of expectations.

Although some investors may be disappointed the stock didn’t have more of a positive reaction, there will be a degree of satisfaction with the results and the performance of HSBC shares going into results.

“HSBC delivered a 9% beat on the profit line, driven by booming wealth management and non-interest income, while focusing on streamlining its operations with $3 billion in cost savings on the cards. There was a slight disappointment in impairments, which are higher than expected, signalling a potential shift from HSBC’s historically market-leading credit quality – a trend worth keeping an eye on,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Guidance has been all-important so far in the current round of banking earnings with Barclays and NatWest shares falling on the day of their releases. There was a risk that any disappointment around HSBC’s outlook could see them go the same as their peers, given the sharp run-up HSBC shares have had going into results.

However, HSBC’s strong performance across the board and comparatively upbeat outlook assessment played a major part in supporting the shares on Wednesday.

HSBC said they expect $42bn of banking net interest income in 2025 and saw returns on tangible equity in the mid-teens through 2027.

“Guidance for the new year is ahead of expectations, but much of the positive outlook was already priced in given the improved US rate environment and expected cost management efforts.”

The wealth management business is firing on cylinders, which is central to HSBC’s strong performance. The company added 800,00 new wealth clients in Hong Kong, and the wealth business unit generated $12.2bn in profit before tax.

Of the $2bn increase in group operating profit, the wealth unit contributed around $550m.

“Momentum in the wealth businesses looks particularly notable,” said Alex Potter, investment director at abrdn.

Potter continued to explain that although HSBC’s results lacked any major excitement, the strategic decisions by the bank put it on good footing for long-term shareholder returns.

“The new CEO’s big strategic update looks sensible, if unspectacular, with another $1.5bn of explicit cost savings. Some more aggressive recent commentary had been talking about as much as $3bn of savings, so some may be disappointed today. However, the new return targets out to 2027 are admirable, a little above expectations and the yield looks very well underpinned, in our view.”

HSBC announced a fresh $2bn share buyback to bring total returns to shareholders $26.9bn.

Nvidia’s investment in WeRide underscores autonomous vehicle momentum

NASDAQ-listed WeRide shares have soared since a filing last week revealed chip giant Nvidia had added the autonomous vehicle technology company to its portfolio of AI-related stocks.

Nvidia runs a portfolio of exciting early-stage public technology companies with deep roots in AI. In many instances, Nvidia has an existing partnership with the companies it acquires stakes in. Indeed, any company with substantive AI-related operations will likely have Nvidia chips in its technology stack.

Other holdings disclosed in Nvidia’s Form 13F filing were Arm Holdings, Applied Digital, Nebius, and Recursion Pharmaceuticals.

WeRide is a fascinating addition to the portfolio as it signals Nvidia’s recognition of the opportunity in autonomous vehicles as the adoption of the technology builds momentum.

WeRide has developed level 4 autonomous vehicle technology that is being tested and rolled out in 30 cities across nine countries, including the US, UAE and China.

Level 4 autonomous vehicles operate completely autonomously without the intervention of the driver, and these vehicles can operate without a driver in the car. There are few other companies operating level 4 AVs at any scale.

Perhaps the most notable element of its business model is that WeRide isn’t a vehicle manufacturer. Rather, it has partnered with organisations such as Nissan and Geely to bring their technology to market through a range of vehicle types.

WeRide’s autonomous vehicle product portfolio includes Robotaxis, Robobuses, Robovans, and Robosweepers, alongside advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS).

While Nvidia’s investment doesn’t guarantee WeRide any commercial success – or even returns on the stock from this point after it more than doubled on news of Nvidia’s stake – it does underscore the momentum in the autonomous vehicle space.

Forecasters have predicted the global autonomous vehicle industry will be worth between $130bn – $13 trillion by 2030. It’s a large range, and we’re sure other consultancies and investment banks will have wildly different estimates. Nonetheless, there is a race for companies to set out of their AV stalls.

The early movers in this industry and those companies that successfully build relationships with consumers near the genesis of adoption will be well-placed to become major players in this fast-moving industry.

Tesla is a great example of the enthusiasm around autonomous vehicles. Despite Elon Musk’s interference in European politics, which played a part in sending new registrations of Teslas down 60% in Germany in January, Tesla is still worth more than $1 trillion.

The stock’s resilience can be attributed not to the hope that Tesla car sales will rebound but to the company’s autonomous vehicle and robotaxi ambitions.

“The autonomous future is here,” Musk said when he unveiled the autonomous Cybercab last year.

UK & Europe

Although much of the action is taking place in China and the United States, several companies are doing very interesting things in the UK and Europe. 

Renault Group is one of WeRide’s European partners with a strategy to launch a Level 4 minibus integrated with WeRide’s technology.

London-based Wayve is developing AI end-to-end foundational models for AVs and has recently launched testing in San Francisco. Their approach has many similarities with WeRide.

AIM-listed Tekcapital is preparing for the IPO of portfolio company Guident which has developed autonomous vehicle safety technology that provides teleoperation functionality to get vehicles out of harms away. 

Another example is UK-based and privately held Evie Autonomous. Evie have produced fully autonomous pods that have been deployed at Heathrow to shuttle passengers and cargo. 

Share Tip: Synectics – this is a ‘clever technology business’ – its global marketplace offers so much potential, ahead of its 2024 Finals in two weeks

On Tuesday 4th March, possibly one of the busiest days for SmallCaps reporting, one of my recent favourites, Synectics (LON:SNX) will be announcing its 2024 Final Results – and I am looking forward to hearing what the group has to say about its business going forward. 
The Business 
The Sheffield-based group is a leader in advanced security and surveillance systems that help protect people, property, communities, and assets around the world.  
It also has operations in Berlin, Macau, Singapore and in Wheat Ridge, Colorado. 
The company’s expertise is in providing solutions ...

Navigating the Trump tariffs 

Martin Connaghan, Samantha Fitzpatrick, Co-Managers of Murray International Trust PLC 

  • There is still little detail on the US administration’s tariff regime 
  • Tariffs may be imposed indiscriminately on countries, or targeted at specific industries 
  • While the situation is opaque, the tariff regime cannot be ignored. 

Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House has unleashed a flurry of activity. However, while we have clarity on some areas of his policy agenda, companies across the world are still waiting to hear more on the issue that, arguably, affects them most – tariffs.  

For an investor trying to navigate this environment, there are a number of complexities. There has been a lot of rhetoric, and the broad ambition to ‘make in America’ is clear. However, it has come with very little detail. During the election campaign, tariffs on Chinese of as high as 60% or as low as 10% were suggested.  

There is also little clarity on whether tariffs will be applied indiscriminately to individual countries or whether the new administration will be more discerning. Will the 25% tariff mooted for Canada apply to US oil imports? Canada provides around half of US oil imports – and that oil is used in manufacturing everything from plastic to lipstick. Are US citizens ready for the inflationary impact of imposing such tariffs on it? 

Starting point for negotiation? 

Equally, there is the question of whether every statement on tariffs is simply the starting point for negotiation. Tariffs on Columbia were removed after a deal was struck on deportation flights, which suggests that deals can be done. Similarly, Trump has made curbing fentanyl exports a condition of lowering Chinese tariffs.  

In reality, Trump is likely to be more nuanced about the sectors and countries that he targets. The US doesn’t have the capacity or the skillset to replace all imports with domestic options and he will be conscious about raising inflation. Countries are likely to respond to tariffs in kind. It would be naïve of the US to assume that the impact will all be one way.  

It is clear that companies are not yet taking action. While there has been some impact on share prices in areas such as the spirits industry, it has often been hard to disaggregate the impact of concern over tariffs from other factors. For example, the Mexican stock market has been weak, but this may be as much to do with the new government’s policies than the US tariff regime.  

Portfolio holdings 

That said, while the situation is opaque, the tariff regime cannot be ignored. It is important to understand where the potential vulnerabilities are within the Murray International portfolio, and try to put some parameters round its possible impact. We hold Mercedes Benz, for example. We need to understand whether tariffs could impact its supply chain and push up its prices, which in turn could influence demand.  

We have already done this exercise with companies such as Pernod Ricard. China imposed anti-dumping tariffs on European Union brandy imports in October. Pernod Ricard has seen its sales in China drop 26% in the latest quarter alone. However, this needs to be set against a sharp drop in the group’s share price, and there is a question of whether the market has over-reacted. This type of issue will rarely make or break the type of companies in which we invest, and may even be a buying opportunity if the price over-corrects.  

There are areas where the country may be at risk of tariffs, but the companies we hold are not. This is true for  our holdings in Mexico. It is difficult to see how tariffs could be applied to airport operator Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR), or Mexico’s domestic Walmart, Walmex. In Canada, we  hold a pipeline company  that is  unlikely to be affected. Similarly, in China/Hong Kong, we hold Hong Kong Exchange, which is unlikely to be vulnerable to tariffs.  

Reshoring continues 

We don’t believe that the new US administration will derail the re-shoring trend. Companies will still need to diversify their manufacturing and supply chains. US consumers are unlikely to absorb a vast increase in the cost of their iPhone just because it is made in America. Diversifying their supply chains gives companies the flexibility to deal with problems like trade wars and tariffs.  

We are also keeping in mind some of the other potential impacts from the Trump presidency. If tariffs were to prompt a significant spike in inflation, for example, it could keep interest rates higher for longer. This in turn may keep the Dollar high. Emerging market central banks often follow US interest rate policy, and this might stall rate cuts. That would be a tougher environment for emerging market companies. On the other side, if rates in the US were to fall, it could be a catalyst for a re-rating of emerging markets.  

There is also a question of how China responds. Chinese growth in the fourth quarter was robust, tipping over the Government’s target of 5%. It is possible that China responds with retaliatory tariffs plus a stimulus package if US tariffs pose a threat. Any stimulus measures could boost the Chinese consumer, and Asia as a whole. It is not as simple as US tariffs automatically meaning trouble for China.  

This is an environment that requires some flexibility. As managers of Murray International, we need to be alert to companies that could have vulnerabilities and assess the potential outcomes. The situation is likely to become clearer over time, and we will be able to gauge how companies are handling it. However, tariffs are not new, and good companies can navigate these threats.  

Important information 

Risk factors you should consider prior to investing: 

  • The value of investments and the income from them can fall and investors may get back less than the amount invested. 
  • Past performance is not a guide to future results. 
  • Companies selected for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the investment management style described herein and not as an investment recommendation or indication of future performance. 

Other important information: 

Issued by abrdn Fund Managers Limited, registered in England and Wales (740118) at 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4AG, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. 

Find out more at https://www.abrdn.com/en-gb/myi or by registering for updates. You can also follow us on X, Facebook and LinkedIn. 

UK inflation surges to 3% as food and energy prices spike

UK CPI inflation has soared to 3% in January from 2.5% in December as fuel and food lifted average prices.

Economists had expected inflation to increase to 2.8% in January and the higher reading will raise questions about the Bank of England’s next move on interest rates.

“Inflation is back to behaving like a caffeinated flea, bouncing higher in January, after December’s bigger-than-expected fall,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The bounce was even bigger than the market had expected, so while it’s not going to set off a cacophony of alarm bells at the Bank of England, it’s not going to make them any more enthusiastic about rate cuts in the immediate future either.”

There was a consensus among analysts that while the CPI reading could prevent a rate cut at the BoE next meeting, the inflation spike’s composition meant it was likely to fall again in the coming months and increase the chance of borrowing cost cuts later in the year.

“Inflation returning to 3% should, oddly, not be too alarming,” said George Lagarias, Chief Economist at Forvis Mazars.

“The Bank of England tends to dismiss energy and food cost spikes, which contributed the most towards price rises, and prefers to monitor the more “sticky” parts of inflation, like wages.”

The market reaction was relatively benign. The pound ticked gently higher against the dollar, and the FTSE 100 showed little signs of movement in early trade.