N4 Pharma shares rally after research update

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N4 Pharma shares (LON:N4P) rallied on Wednesday after the firm updated investors on its research findings. The pharmaceutical company said that it had conducted further research regarding its Nuvec delivery system. Adding to previous findings, the company said that upon further analysis of its pDNA OVA results, this revealed demonstrated the immune response observed was “sufficient to have produced strong levels of antibodies specific for OVA.” Last month, N4 Pharma confirmed that findings from its Nuvec product research had revealed a ‘clear adjuvent effect’ to deliver an immune response to mRNA and pDNA OVA antigens. Nigel Theobald, CEO of N4 Pharma commented: “These results are once again another positive step forward for our Nuvec(R) delivery platform. The data now shows Nuvec(R) is capable of producing specific and relevant strong levels of antibodies required for the development of vaccines and cancer treatments. “We will continue to provide updates as we add to our already encouraging data package to aid our commercial collaboaration discussions. The production of a robust data package using the test antigen Ovalbumin provides compelling evidence of the potential for Nuvec(R) to be an effective delivery system for a potential partner’s specific DNA or RNA antigen. ” N4 Pharma is a specialist pharmaceutical firm that develops delivery systems for vaccines and cancer treatment. Shares in the company are currently +28.95% as of 10:23AM (GMT).

Telford Homes reveals 31% jump in revenue

Telford Homes has revealed a jump in profit for the first half of the year. The housebuilder reported first-half profits to increase to £10.1 million, an increase of 16%. Total revenue grew by 31% to £129.6 million. Despite the positive results for the first half of the year, Telford Homes said that as a company it has “work to do” in order to meet the full-year targets amid Brexit uncertainty. The group is on track to meet full-year profits of £40 million. “Telford Homes made pleasing progress during the first half of the financial year, despite an increasingly uncertain economic and political backdrop. Our strategic shift towards purpose-built rental homes sold to institutional investors continues to be beneficial to our risk profile and growth potential whilst also being well timed in terms of the changing requirements of our typical customers in London,” said Jon Di-Stefano, the chief executive. “We are committed to our strategy which is built upon a fundamental undersupply of homes in non-prime locations in London and our belief that short-term market sentiment does not alter the long-term structural imbalance between housing supply and housing need. These factors, coupled with our excellent reputation as a trusted build to rent partner and the associated change in our business model, give us the confidence to look forward to more success in future years,” he added. Telford Homes has been shifting to the build to rent over the past three years and has already built 1,750 homes to rent in this period. A survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has suggested that Brexit is taking a toll on the property market. Amid Brexit uncertainty, sales are taking longer to complete, house prices are falling and the number of buyers is decreasing. Simon Rubinsohn, the chief economist at RICS, said: “There are a number of themes running through the comments of respondents this month, but uncertainty relating to Brexit negotiations is at the very top of the list followed by references to the confidential remarks made by the Bank of England governor to the cabinet.” “All of this is, not surprisingly, taking its toll on the sales market,” he added. Shares in the group (LON: TEF) are trading +2.17% (1007GMT).  

Intertek set to maintain full-year performance

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Intertek Group released a trading statement on Tuesday. The quality assurance provider has said it is set to maintain full-year performance and deliver all 2018 targets. The group has announced that revenue saw a sluggish growth in the 10 months through October. This is as a result of weaknesses in the trade and resources division. Group revenue was recorded at £2,315.7 million, which is up 4.8% at constant rates and 0.5% at actual rates.

Intertek also announced that its Alchemy acquisition was integrating well.

CEO of Intertek, André Lacroix, commented on the results: “Intertek is going from strength to strength, making consistent progress on strategy and performance. We are on track to deliver our 2018 targets of good organic revenue growth at constant rates with moderate group margin progression and strong cash conversion.” “We are benefiting from higher demand from our customers for Intertek global Total Quality Assurance solutions in our Products, Trade and Resources sectors. In the last four months, we have seen broad-based revenue growth acceleration with 4.5% organic revenue growth at constant rates with continuing robust performance in our Products sector and performance improvement in Trade and Resources. The recent acquisitions in high margin and high growth areas performed well.” “The $250 billion global quality assurance industry has attractive structural growth prospects driven by an increased focus of corporations on risk management, global trade flows, global demand for energy, expanding regulations, more complex sourcing and distribution operations, technological innovations, government investments in large infrastructure projects, and increased consumer demand for higher quality and more sustainable products.” “We are uniquely positioned to seize these exciting growth opportunities thanks to our Total Quality Assurance differentiated value proposition. We provide our clients with a superior customer service based on the depth and breadth of our technical expertise, our global network of over 1,000 state-of-the-art facilities in over 100 countries, our industry-leading Assurance, Testing, Inspection and Certification solutions, and our customer-centric culture fuelled by our passionate colleagues around the world.” Tuesday’s other stock market news includes Thomas Cook shares plunging 30% on a profit warning. Additionally, shares in the UK’s leading bakery retailer Greggs jumped after the company announced a positive outlook. Elsewhere, Pets at Home revealed its first-half results, including an 81% decrease in profits. At 16:35 GMT today, shares in Intertek Group plc (LON:ITRK) were trading at +2.28%.

Apple shares slump as Trump suggests further tariffs

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Apple shares fell by 1.5% on Tuesday after Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs affecting iPhones made in China. The US President said today that he may introduce a 10% tariff on iPhones and laptops made in China, which US consumers would be able to stand “very easily”. Shares in the tech giant, which have already fallen 20% this month, dipped on opening. Jose Castaneda, a spokesperson for the Information Technology Industry Council, said that if tariffs are added to Apple products it will affect consumers. “Despite the pain Americans have felt in communities across the United States as a result of tariffs, the president has signalled he wants to continue this short-sighted trade war.” “Imposing a new round of tariffs would cause a shock that will reverberate across America and the globe. It would further threaten global supply chains, leading to higher prices for the electronic devices people rely on every day and even the loss of American jobs.” “It is deeply disappointing the president wants to undermine his opportunity to create meaningful progress before the discussions even begin. ITI urges him to give negotiations a chance and work toward an agreement that resolves this growing trade dispute,” he added. Shares in Apple have fallen over the past few months since the group was the world’s first company to surpass the $1 trillion dollar mark. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), which was worth $817.3 billion on Monday’s close, was expected to overtake Apple on Tuesday’s opening. Shares in the group (NASDAQ: AAPL) are currently trading -0.49% at 173,76 (1656GMT).  

Pound falls on Trump’s Brexit comments

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Following comments by Donald Trump suggesting that the Brexit deal might affect trade with the US, the pound fell to a low of 1.274 against the dollar. The US President said on Tuesday the withdrawal agreement “sounds like a great deal for the EU” and may, therefore, mean that the UK and US might not carry out any trade deals. “Right now if you look at the deal, [the UK] may not be able to trade with us. And that wouldn’t be a good thing. I don’t think they meant that” he said outside the White House. The government has insisted that the UK will be able to carry out deals with countries around the world. Connor Campbell from SpreadEx said: “The pound remained shaken by Trump’s suggestion that Theresa May’s Brexit deal was so favourable to the EU that it might prevent the UK from being able to trade with the US. Against the dollar it dropped half a percent, leaving cable lurking around $1.275, while against the euro it was down 0.4%, sitting just under €1.126.” Theresa May is taking part in a two-week bid in order to persuade MPs and the British public that her Brexit deal is the right way forward. Earlier this week, the director of the Confederation of Business Industry (CBI) has that businesses in Northern Ireland will not be able to cope with a no-deal Brexit and were, therefore, backing the current agreement. Angela McGowan said that leaving the EU without a deal is not an option and “no country in the world will want to invest in Northern Ireland if it is thrown out of Europe.” Many have warned to vote against the deal, with the DUP’s Arlene Foster accusing the prime minister of “giving up” on getting a better deal. MPs will vote on the deal in December.  

John Lewis reports record sales over Black Friday

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John Lewis has reported a record week of sales thanks to Black Friday deals. In the week to 27 November, sales increased by 7.7% compared to the year previously. Sales in the fashion and beauty department saw the biggest increase at 13.1%, with the deals pulling customers in. Electrical and homeware sales were up by 6%. John hailed it as the “biggest sales week in our history” “While it is encouraging to see headline retail sales growth strengthen in November after a weak outturn in October, the quarterly survey continues to paint a gloomy picture of the sector. Business sentiment remains poor, investment intentions are flat, and headcount continues to decline,” said Anna Leach, the CBI head of economic intelligence. Sales in Waitrose were not as promising as the department store. Sales of non-food items fell by 6.9%, whilst food sales were down by 1.6%. However, in the run-up to Christmas shoppers did splurge on mince pies and mulled wine, sales were up 43% and 17% respectively.    

Brexit Scenarios: What happens next in Westminster and the markets?

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After months of back and forth between Brussels and Downing Street, a withdrawal agreement has finally been negotiated paving the way for a number of Brexit scenarios.

Just this week, EU leaders approved the proposed deal, after concluding that it proved “best and only deal possible”.

However, for Theresa May, the uphill battle continues, as in the coming days, she seeks to convince MPs to back her Brexit deal.

As well as traditional opposition from Labour, the SNP and DUP to count a few, May also has to win over her own party, with the Conservatives proving more divided on the issue of Brexit than ever before.

What is Theresa May’s deal?

The 585-page withdrawal agreement document centres around three key issues.

1) Citizens’ rights

The deal protects the rights of over 3 million EU nationals residing in the UK, as well as the more than 1 million UK citizens living in EU countries.
Theresa May wanted to limit the protection to those citizens that had arrived prior to 29 March 2019, however, the final deal will include the transition period, which may last until as long as 2022.

2) The UK’s bill

The deal also deals with settling the amount that the UK needs to pay the EU as part of withdrawal. The UK’s exit bill is set to be around £39bn to cover its contributions to the European Union until 2020.

3) Irish border

The most contentious issue however, has proved the question of the Irish border. Under the proposed agreement, the so-called ‘backstop’ will be enforced should no customs arrangement be reached between Brussels and Downing St by the end of the transition period. The backstop will mean that the whole of the UK remains in the customs union, with Northern Ireland remaining within the single market.

Here are some of the possible Brexit scenarios that may emerge in the coming weeks:

Parliament approves the deal

On the 11th of December, Parliament is set to vote on the deal proposed by Theresa May.

Should the deal be approved, it will be enforced as it is – an outcome the PM will certainly be pushing for in the next few weeks.

Alternatively, MPs may approve the deal alongside suggesting some additional amendments, which would mean another round of re-negotiations.

Conversely, If MP’s vote to outright reject the deal, a range of potential scenarios could arise, meaning uncertainty surrounding Brexit is only set to worsen.

If parliament were to pass May’s deal the likely scenario would be a rally in the pound and a mildy negative decline in the FTSE 100. The deals avoids much of the widely feared hard Brexit the market has reactive negatively over the past 18 months.

A strong negative correlation between the pound and the FTSE 100 is likely to see London’s leading index underperform as the pound embarks on a relief rally.

Re-negotiations

If MPs reject the deal or recommend certain amendments, the PM may have to head back to Brussels to re-negotiate.

This option however, seems unlikely given that EU leaders have already accepted the deal.

An attempt by May to return to Brussels to thrash out a new deal will not be taken well by the market. Donald Tusk has said it was the current deal or no deal meaning May is likely to be unsuccessful leading to the sharp decline in the pound and a wider risk off move in markets.

Vote of no confidence

Should May fail to convince MPs, this may trigger a vote of no confidence.

Thus far, Jacob Rees-Mogg has already encouraged Tory MPs to send letters to trigger a leadership challenge. At least 25 MPs have submitted letters, including former London Mayor candidate Zac Goldsmith.

If the vote of no confidence proves successful, this will trigger a leadership contest within the party, but this may not necessarily lead to a general election.

However, if May survives the vote, a leadership challenge cannot be mounted against her for another year.

Whilst it may prove difficult to survive such a challenge, anything is possible. Jeremy Corbyn famously stayed on as Labour leader despite having lost a vote of no confidence back in 2016.

A Vote of no-confidence opens the door to an array of market reactions, all of which likely to be negative for sterling apart from a quick decision for doubtful second referendum. The initial reaction to a no-confidence will ignite fears of No-Deal and potentially a general election.

General Election

In a brave move, Theresa May could opt to call a general election herself, in a bid to secure backing from the general public to push through her deal.

Given her markedly lacklustre performance during the 2017 election, campaigning is not necessarily her forte, proving an equally unlikely option.

Alternatively, Labour could also force a general election. According to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, following a successful no confidence motion, the opposition would also be granted two weeks to form an alternative government. Accordingly, Labour could opt to form a grand coalition with SNP, Green and Lib Dem MPs. If however, they prove unable to do so, a general election could be triggered.

A second referendum

Alternatively, The Prime Minister could turn directly to the people, through the means of a second referendum.

The second referendum may be simply vote on the specificities of the deal, or it could, controversially, also include an option for remain.

Nevertheless, both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have repeatedly dismissed talks of a second vote.

A second referendum is likely to prolong or reduce any negative impact to the UK leading to strength in sterling in the short term.

A no-deal Exit

If the Parliament votes down the deal, the UK could also come crashing out of the EU without a deal.

If this happens, there would no longer be a transition period. Businesses would have to act immediately to address the changes that would arise as a result of withdrawing from the EU. This uncertainty would be particularly damaging for the UK economy.

The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, has repeatedly warned on this outcome, suggesting it could be as damaging as the 2008 financial crisis.

A no-deal exit would cause the most uncertainty and lead severe volatility in sterling, the FTSE 100 and UK government bond market.

In a no-deal scenario one would expect the pound to retest some of the lowest levels since the vote to leave the EU.

Uber fined by UK and Dutch data regulators

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Uber has been fined £385,000 by the Information Commissioner’s Office. The car-sharing service was fined after hackers were able to steal the data of 2.7 million UK customers in 2016. The ICO has said that the data breach, which allowed hackers to steal customers full names, addresses and phone numbers, were “avoidable data security flaws”. Steve Eckersley, who is the director of investigations at the ICO, said: “This was not only a serious failure of data security on Uber’s part but a complete disregard for the customers and drivers whose personal information was stolen.” The ICO said: “Uber US did not follow the normal operation of its bug bounty programme. In this incident Uber US paid outside attackers who were fundamentally different from legitimate bug bounty recipients: instead of merely identifying a vulnerability and disclosing it responsibly, they maliciously exploited the vulnerability and intentionally acquired personal information relating to Uber users.” The group was also fined by data regulators in Holland after the same hack affected customers in The Netherlands. Uber had been fined €600,000 (£532,000) by Holland authorities. In the US, Uber paid a fine of $148 million. Uber had paid the hackers $100,000 (£78,400) to destroy the data that was stolen. The company said in a statement: “We’re pleased to close this chapter on the data incident from 2016. As we shared with European authorities during their investigations, we’ve made a number of technical improvements to the security of our systems both in the immediate wake of the incident as well as in the years since.” “We’ve also made significant changes in leadership to ensure proper transparency with regulators and customers moving forward. Earlier this year we hired our first chief privacy officer, data protection officer, and a new chief trust and security officer. We learn from our mistakes and continue our commitment to earn the trust of our users every day.”        

AJ Bell reveals IPO valuation of £675m

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AJ Bell has revealed that its upcoming stock market flotation could value the stockbroker at £675 million. Previous estimates of £500 million have been increased as the new price range has been introduced at between £1.54 and £1.66 per share. Shares in AJ Bell will be up for sale in December when the group floats on the London Stock Exchange. “There has been significant interest in our IPO which reflects the potential for expansion in our market, the strength of our business model and our track record of sustainable growth,” said chief executive, Andy Bell. “The application period for the IPO is due to open later today and our customers will be able to apply for shares via our investment platform where they will find the prospectus to help inform their decision.” Last year, AJ Bell reported a 19% increase in revenues to £89.7 million. Pre-tax profit before tax was up 31% to £28.4 million. “Our intention to float the business on the London Stock Exchange reflects both our historic achievements and our belief in how much more we can achieve,” said Bell. “A listing offers us further reputational and commercial benefits that will support our growth plans.” The firm said it will publish a prospectus later today. AJ Bell’s IPO advisor is Numis Securities. London has had several disappointing London listings this year including Aston Martin and Funding Circle amid market volatility and Brexit fears, however, AJ Bell remains undettered and says now is an “appropriate time to bring the group to the public market”. A banker who did not want to be named said of the Aston Martin and Funding Circle debuts: “This is brutal. The IPO market stinks for growth stocks which do not have an earnings track record.”

Pets at Home first-half profits crash 81%

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Pets at Home announced on Tuesday morning that first-half profits have plunged by 81%. Despite this, the pet-product retailer and veterinary group has said the UK pet care market remains “resilient”. Pre-tax profit for the six months through October dropped to £8 million, despite revenue growing 5.3% to £499.3 million. This figure is an 81% drop compared to the £40.8 million last year. Following a review of its veterinary business, the company said that it recognised costs had been putting pressure on practices. Pets at Home has said it will offer a buy back and consolidate up to 55 of its 471 practices from joint venture partners. These joint venture partners are typically vets. 25 of these will be operated as company-managed practices and the rest may face closure. The company’s interim dividend remains at 2.5p per share. For the full year, underlying pre-tax profit is predicted to be at least £80-85 million. Moreover, final dividend will be maintained at 7.5p per share.

Pets at Home will follow a new strategy to become a complete pet care company.

The company’s CEO, Peter Pritchard, has commented on the results: “Since becoming the Group CEO in May, I have had the opportunity to take stock of the wider group and shape my view of our future. What I have found fills me with confidence. Pets at Home is a healthy business and customers are loving what we do; responding to our price repositioning, investment in digital and the amazing service delivered by our vet partners. We have the ability to offer almost everything a pet owner needs, giving us opportunities our competitors simply don’t have. Which is why my vision is to develop a complete pet care company, uniting our retail and vet businesses.” “Reviewing our Vet Group has been a priority. I recognise we have grown at pace and more recently, have seen the pressure that rising costs and our fees are placing on this young business. We will need to recalibrate the business to deliver more measured growth, whilst maintaining our plan to generate significant cash profits.” “We are focused on maximising our unique assets and delivering a plan for sustainable cashflow and profit growth. Given the success of the changes we have made in Retail, I’m confident we can do this.” Earlier in May, Pets at Home reported a 17% drop in pre-tax profits in its full-year results. Clear this drop was exacerbated as the company entered the first half of the following year. Tuesday’s stock market headlines also include Thomas Cook shares plunging on a profit warning. At 09:35 GMT today, shares in Pets at Home Group plc (LON:PETS) were trading at -0.61%.